Bitcoin Forum

Now that the issues in China seem to have settled down, and the market has normalized after a turbulent first few weeks of 2017, it is time to look at the next event on the horizon. That will come next month, as the Winklevoss ETF judgment is due in less than four weeks. What do you think of this statement? <br /> <br />Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App

I think it's possible that if their ETF is approved the price will rise massively. The issue is getting it approved though, I think it's supposed to have a 25% chance of approval which isn't great.

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

The chance of getting aproved is below >30%
In case they get the green light, BTC price will massively rise up to 1600$ for the first weeks.
If they get declined, the price might hit $700-$900.

This is a very clear overview of what the ETF is, I have only seen comments in other threads on the price of bitcoin sky rocketing as a direct result of the ETF, thanks for this explanation.

The china thing has just started, PBoC comes up with newer stuff to enforce on the exchanges and adds new restrictions. the exchanges have closed down withdrawals for now!

i think you had price in your mind, since price has settled down from volatility.


i think it will be a big and a good news for bitcoin but only if it is accepted. and besides it is not going to happen overnight so i disagree with the 65% rise after the ETF because that would mean going up to $1650 and you are forgetting about the resistance.

The ETF is backed by bitcoin and each share will represents 0.01 BTC.  Shares are convertible to bitcoin and bitcoin is convertible to shares (but only in sufficient quantity).  This convertibility will ensure that market makers are able to keep the ETF in line with bitcoin.  If the ETF gets bought up, people will buy bitcoin, trade them for shares, then sell the shares and repeat this until the prices are aligned.

Yes, the ETF is different from bitcoin in many ways, but to say it can't influence bitcoin price is not accurate.

this ETH thing may be big and keeps getting hyped up but it is not even half as big and hyped up as the bitcoin block halving, at least not yet. and the hype has always caused such rises that you are thinking about.

with that said even with a FOMO buys price can not go up to 65% because of what i said.

also as franky1 explained above, this ETF will have indirect effect on bitcoin. and that kind of effect will show itself smaller and i expect it to be also slower.

Exchange Traded Funds - ETFs are not for the average investors, because investors are going to have to buy shares directly from the sponsoring fund company (Winkelvoss in this case) and the shares are typically in blocks of 50,000. Essentially, they're investment vehicles targeted at the institutions and the very wealthy, who can afford to deal directly with the fund companies. Brokers sooner or later, spring up to bridge the gap for average investors.

The market price of an ETF is determined most by the forces of demand and supply for the shares of the ETF and to some extent by the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its portfolio. So it is not uncommon to find ETF's market price trading at different rate from the NAV, especially for those ETFs that're traded less frequently. As a result, the potential exists for ETFs to trade at prices above or below the market price of their underlying portfolios and often create arbitrage opportunities, which is an edge wealthy and institutional traders enjoy.

So Winkelovoss EFT stands to draw the attention of the wealthy and institutional investors to Bitcoin, which could easily translate to much more demand for Bitcoin and increase in its market value.

The Winklevoss ETF is far from guaranteed to get approved, these huge predictions need to stop until we get the ETF decision.

I'd love to see the price rise by the % mentioned here but let's calm down.

I will believe a giant spike when I see it.

Approval is one thing. Once that's in the bag then you need to find people who actually want to put money in. It's a cool vehicle but does nothing else to increase Bitcoin's perceived desirability. Just because you can ETF it doesn't mean it's going to change many minds in the short term.

In case ETF will be approved there will be chain reaction, it is more than certain. The only question is high high the waves will be.
Coin ETF will bolster bitcoin credibility as currency/asset to the point it will could become the most desired capital investment.
We can speculate that Bitcoin's price will spike 25%, 50% or 65% but upward trend will be imminent.

But from the other hand - chance of SECs approval is rather slim at this point.

ETF approval (IF it happens) it means two significant things for BTC. First its an easy way of bringing new and more money to BTC market cap and that is important. Second and also great, it will make BTC legit in the eyes of many people and funds that find new ways to invest. So we can naturally expect a rise in price IF it happens.

It will raise only If it gets approved , If fact , I'm afraid that the price will decrease If it doesn't as probably some people are buying now because of the ETF hoping that they will make some profit from this and If they don't , they could probably just sell and walk away.

So each share is 0.01 btc initially, but what is a basket: 50000 or 500000 shares?
If 50000, then it is 500BTC equivalent, pretty steep level for conversion.
If it is 500000, then no retail will ever convert a basket to btc as it will be above $5mil at current prices.

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.

There is speculation for bitcoin will be doubled if ETF will be approved, you know it is a big challenge, hope they can succeed.

We are talking about 65% price gain because, frankly - 1000% boost of BTC price is unachievable. There is nothing which will cause bitcoin to skyrocket that high.
I am of course talking abut radical price increase over a month or so. Not gradual value increase we are experiencing.

For BTC to skyrocket that high we would need global economic crisis, major fiat, like dollar or euro collapsing or some other event of that magnitude.

That is what I think too. The People's Bank of China will not stop until they satisfactorily get the Chinese Bitcoin exchanges under their will. They might be viewing Bitcoin as a slap in the face because by design it can circumvent laws and can squeeze its way in and disrupt the financial system if the PBOC is not careful. We have already seen the initial reaction of Chinese traders resort to Localbitcoins. I believe they will block it next and try to criminalize anyone who uses it. Next phase will be decentralized exchanges which will give the PBOC another big problem.

Since you put it that way.
It does make it sound more like an ICO you are buying into. But with Winklevoss securing it with their backing of their own company and trust funds.

i do believe that Winkelvoss ETF is one of those things that can affect bitcoin greatly because it will introduce bitcoin to many people who were unaware of it and they can see bitcoin as a valid investment they can trust despite all the negative bullshit they have heard on the media so far.

but it won't be a big ass rise all of a sudden out of nowhere. it will be slow rise, with a stronger buy support because of new demand that it can bring in. and any sudden big rise will be temporary because of hype.

ETFs are targeted at high networth investors that can comfortably upto 50000 blocks of shares from the fund company and not just for every trader out there unless a brokerage company comes in to play the middleman.

Overall, I want to believe that the ETF stands some good chance of getting approved going by Trump's stance on reducing the burden of regulation in the U.S. and a number of Bitcoin enthusiasts that are close to the sit of power.

http://www.econotimes.com/Trump-picks-bitcoin-and-blockchain-enthusiast-Mick-Mulvaney-as-Budget-Director-461379

This ETF is great news for institutional investors, but not so much for the average people not having found their way to Bitcoin yet. Institutional investors have mostly avoided investing in Bitcoin due to the incompetent and amateurish nature of current exchanges. I can't blame them for that as we all know how good 'our' current exchanges are in messing up big time. But this ETF once approved will have a massive impact on the price (whether or not it will be felt directly remains to be seen). Don't forget that there are more ETF's that we will see pop up in the coming years. Winklevoss ETF isn't only one. It must feel great to be a Bitcoin holder, isn't it? ;)

We know how these things works... the Bitcoin price goes up and people take notice and the masters of the fiat world react by doing something to

push it down again... Just when we thought things were going well, the Chinese government dropped the PBOC on us. The ETF approval will push

the price up, but something will push it down again.  >:(

That's true! Goverments will NOT allow BTC price to go up to the moon. They will try with one or another way to regulate BTC. Just like they have done with Gold price. They manipulate everything!

Why would a new way to buy something that is already relatively easy to buy increase the market cap by $130billion (more than the value of Mastercard, nearly the value of coca cola)

I would expect a small boost in price, maybe 10%, then if the ETF starts to accumulate Bitcoins, the long term price pressure would be positive for the price.

SLV and GLD are generally considered to be very bad for the price of physical PMs, I am not sure that a Bitcoin ETF will be quite the windfall that people expect.

Well Brexit supposedly had no chance, Trump had no chance, the Patriots had no chance, Bitcoin ETF has no chance...

What a bizarre assertion. Any yahoo with a brokerage account can buy ETFs (picture the creepy e-trade baby). That is their raison d'etre.

Bitcoin to many is easy to buy but i bet theres thousands of people that would be put off by all the horror stories of losing keys, hacked accounts and just general loss of coins. If buying through a ETF then you dont have to worry about any of these issues. The majority of wall street investors wouldnt bother with the hassle of buying and storing a bitcoin but i bet they would happily buy a ETF when they see how much potential it has.

If the ETF goes through your normal bitcoin guys will enter into a bull market while we have ETF guys double teaming from the other side. All outlooks look positive.

I think there will be a spike expected that might double the price due to the market reactions. The price will not stay at the peak for a long time and will later settle at around half of it and stabilize. That is why the prediction of 65% rise is given.

I do understand this, but somehow I doubt that them creating an ETF based on bitcoin will have an appreciable effect on the price.  That's just a hunch.  I also doubt that it's going to stimulate interest in people who otherwise wouldn't have heard about it--unless some Wall Street firms decide to buy in or something like that.  But the average Joe?  Probably not.

I love how everyone and their dog tries to come up with a chance that this will happen. Why is it 1 in 4 ish? According to who? It was pulled out of someone's ass and that's all most people are going on.

Since ETFs are created to track the price of an asset, they only have to create an arbitrage opportunity through some pricing mechanism that sells the shares at some prices lower than the market value of Bitcoin and the arbitrage situation that ensues will increase the demand for the ETF shares and the subsequent selling or redemption of the shares would then force the price down and close the arbitrage.

That goes to suggest that the government would rather be inclined to give approval for ETFs that tracks the price of Bitcoin, because it would then give them a tool to control the price of Bitcoin.

Most ETFs (it is my understanding that COIN will be no different), allow certain Authorized Participants ("AP") to exchange shares of the ETF for the equivalent assets that those shares represent, and vice versa.

So for example, if the price of COIN were to go above the price of the equivalent amount of BTC that each share of COIN represents, (and there is sufficient liquidity), then someone might buy 5,000BTC on an exchange, exchange those BTC for shares of COIN, and sell the shares of COIN on the open market, and pocket the difference.

This is not unlike how a order on the OkCoin futures platform affects the price on other exchanges, provided that it is large enough, and the various exchanges have sufficient liquidity.

The COIN share will have a different price temporarily to the BTC price, but since this would be used to make arbitraging, it will quickly reach a similar price, so I don't expect to make any money from that. It's better to just keep buying BTC. COIN is mostly for old people and non-tech people that don't know shit about bitcoin.

Yes. Ta.

ETF will be a gate for institutional capital to invest in bitcoin. If we think, who is buying BTC now?
Most money managers can't invest in Bitcoin because it is not registered security and they can't touch it because of that.
With ETF in play it will be possible for institutional money to flow into bitcoin. People will realize that Bitcoin is now backed by legal financial institution.
So BTC will no longer be 'that thing used to buy illegal goods' but instead become something approved by SEC.
All that will make bitcoin price more stable, because volatility will vaporize, and effect on price will be significant.

I agree that with the approval of Winkelvoss ETF,   this signals other investors to hop in to Bitcoin.  Reason is that, the fears and doubt about bitcoin will be gone since it is clear that bitcoin is somehow recognized by legal entities.  With this the price of Bitcoin will spike due to the fresh funds from these people.

65% Price rise due to ETF approval  will be nice example of play of FUD and nothing else.  There are multiple reasons for price rise, most of them have been explained in this thread as well. Bitcoin supply has halved and there is increasing demand of bitcoins. Whether ETF approval do wonders for bitcoin price is still in uncertain. What if big corporations find bitcoin not scalable for them and causing abandoning it. This would be major dent for bitcoin world. We all know current load on the blockchain and what would happen if big corps enter and try to raise the transactions? Will current infrastructure take it? Thus don't ride high on approval of ETF, it may backfire.

Could the increase due to the potential ETF already be built into the price? That's sort of what happened last year with the halving. I think the price increases for a few months prior to the halving so there wasn't much change after the halving.

And what if it disapproved?? How much dip would you expect?

Well, March 11th is on a Saturday..so you can chill behind youre screen and party on ore press SELL.

Some of my friends want to get into bitcoin, and I told them to prepare to buy the dip after March 11. How far the knife is going to fall, it's hard to tell, but at least some are prepared to catch it.

It just depends on how far the current increase is based on what will be happening with the ETF on the 11 of March, next month. I think the uncertainty that governments cause within their economy is what is pushing people towards Bitcoin. They take positions into Bitcoin to store (secure) a part of their wealth outside the banking/governmental system. It creates great demand for Bitcoin which isn't likely to decrease any time soon. If the ETF doesn't happen to get approved and the price falls as result of that, then it will be nothing more than a short lasting dump. After that the price will continue it's way up.

I quite agree with your take that Bitcoin ETFs would attract more institutional investors to Bitcoin, but to have Bitcoin backed by legal works is going to be a tall order, because the authorities are mindful of the fact that Bitcoin stands to push especially the local currencies to the background if given legal backing and for that, it should be understandable why they would rather look the other way. Nevertheless, ETFs would provide an avenue for the authorities to influence the price of Bitcoin and I think they would be interested in that!