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Author Topic: Bitcoin Price Will Spike Over 65% After Winkelvoss ETF  (Read 2720 times)
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February 16, 2017, 11:51:27 AM
 #1

Now that the issues in China seem to have settled down, and the market has normalized after a turbulent first few weeks of 2017, it is time to look at the next event on the horizon. That will come next month, as the Winklevoss ETF judgment is due in less than four weeks. What do you think of this statement? <br /> <br />Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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February 16, 2017, 12:03:25 PM
 #2

I think it's possible that if their ETF is approved the price will rise massively. The issue is getting it approved though, I think it's supposed to have a 25% chance of approval which isn't great.


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February 16, 2017, 12:11:03 PM
 #3

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

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February 16, 2017, 12:12:51 PM
 #4

The chance of getting aproved is below >30%
In case they get the green light, BTC price will massively rise up to 1600$ for the first weeks.
If they get declined, the price might hit $700-$900.
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February 16, 2017, 12:18:43 PM
 #5

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

This is a very clear overview of what the ETF is, I have only seen comments in other threads on the price of bitcoin sky rocketing as a direct result of the ETF, thanks for this explanation.
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February 16, 2017, 12:27:32 PM
 #6

Now that the issues in China seem to have settled down,

The china thing has just started, PBoC comes up with newer stuff to enforce on the exchanges and adds new restrictions. the exchanges have closed down withdrawals for now!

i think you had price in your mind, since price has settled down from volatility.

Quote
That will come next month, as the Winklevoss ETF judgment is due in less than four weeks. What do you think of this statement?

i think it will be a big and a good news for bitcoin but only if it is accepted. and besides it is not going to happen overnight so i disagree with the 65% rise after the ETF because that would mean going up to $1650 and you are forgetting about the resistance.

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February 16, 2017, 01:10:23 PM
 #7

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

This is a very clear overview of what the ETF is, I have only seen comments in other threads on the price of bitcoin sky rocketing as a direct result of the ETF, thanks for this explanation.

The ETF is backed by bitcoin and each share will represents 0.01 BTC.  Shares are convertible to bitcoin and bitcoin is convertible to shares (but only in sufficient quantity).  This convertibility will ensure that market makers are able to keep the ETF in line with bitcoin.  If the ETF gets bought up, people will buy bitcoin, trade them for shares, then sell the shares and repeat this until the prices are aligned.

Yes, the ETF is different from bitcoin in many ways, but to say it can't influence bitcoin price is not accurate.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 16, 2017, 01:23:48 PM
 #8

snip
...that would mean going up to $1650 and you are forgetting about the resistance.

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February 16, 2017, 01:47:40 PM
 #9

this ETH thing may be big and keeps getting hyped up but it is not even half as big and hyped up as the bitcoin block halving, at least not yet. and the hype has always caused such rises that you are thinking about.

with that said even with a FOMO buys price can not go up to 65% because of what i said.

also as franky1 explained above, this ETF will have indirect effect on bitcoin. and that kind of effect will show itself smaller and i expect it to be also slower.

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February 16, 2017, 03:23:58 PM
 #10

Exchange Traded Funds - ETFs are not for the average investors, because investors are going to have to buy shares directly from the sponsoring fund company (Winkelvoss in this case) and the shares are typically in blocks of 50,000. Essentially, they're investment vehicles targeted at the institutions and the very wealthy, who can afford to deal directly with the fund companies. Brokers sooner or later, spring up to bridge the gap for average investors.

The market price of an ETF is determined most by the forces of demand and supply for the shares of the ETF and to some extent by the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its portfolio. So it is not uncommon to find ETF's market price trading at different rate from the NAV, especially for those ETFs that're traded less frequently. As a result, the potential exists for ETFs to trade at prices above or below the market price of their underlying portfolios and often create arbitrage opportunities, which is an edge wealthy and institutional traders enjoy.

So Winkelovoss EFT stands to draw the attention of the wealthy and institutional investors to Bitcoin, which could easily translate to much more demand for Bitcoin and increase in its market value.
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February 16, 2017, 03:43:46 PM
 #11

The Winklevoss ETF is far from guaranteed to get approved, these huge predictions need to stop until we get the ETF decision.

I'd love to see the price rise by the % mentioned here but let's calm down.


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February 16, 2017, 03:46:00 PM
 #12

I will believe a giant spike when I see it.

Approval is one thing. Once that's in the bag then you need to find people who actually want to put money in. It's a cool vehicle but does nothing else to increase Bitcoin's perceived desirability. Just because you can ETF it doesn't mean it's going to change many minds in the short term.
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February 16, 2017, 03:53:30 PM
 #13

-snip-
so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable
In case ETF will be approved there will be chain reaction, it is more than certain. The only question is high high the waves will be.
Coin ETF will bolster bitcoin credibility as currency/asset to the point it will could become the most desired capital investment.
We can speculate that Bitcoin's price will spike 25%, 50% or 65% but upward trend will be imminent.

But from the other hand - chance of SECs approval is rather slim at this point.
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February 16, 2017, 05:54:19 PM
 #14

ETF approval (IF it happens) it means two significant things for BTC. First its an easy way of bringing new and more money to BTC market cap and that is important. Second and also great, it will make BTC legit in the eyes of many people and funds that find new ways to invest. So we can naturally expect a rise in price IF it happens.

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February 16, 2017, 06:05:12 PM
 #15

It will raise only If it gets approved , If fact , I'm afraid that the price will decrease If it doesn't as probably some people are buying now because of the ETF hoping that they will make some profit from this and If they don't , they could probably just sell and walk away.

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February 16, 2017, 08:01:23 PM
 #16

So each share is 0.01 btc initially, but what is a basket: 50000 or 500000 shares?
If 50000, then it is 500BTC equivalent, pretty steep level for conversion.
If it is 500000, then no retail will ever convert a basket to btc as it will be above $5mil at current prices.
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February 16, 2017, 08:55:51 PM
 #17

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.
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February 17, 2017, 12:18:12 AM
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There is speculation for bitcoin will be doubled if ETF will be approved, you know it is a big challenge, hope they can succeed.

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February 17, 2017, 01:33:34 AM
 #19

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.
We are talking about 65% price gain because, frankly - 1000% boost of BTC price is unachievable. There is nothing which will cause bitcoin to skyrocket that high.
I am of course talking abut radical price increase over a month or so. Not gradual value increase we are experiencing.

For BTC to skyrocket that high we would need global economic crisis, major fiat, like dollar or euro collapsing or some other event of that magnitude.
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February 17, 2017, 04:57:30 AM
 #20

Now that the issues in China seem to have settled down,

The china thing has just started, PBoC comes up with newer stuff to enforce on the exchanges and adds new restrictions. the exchanges have closed down withdrawals for now!

i think you had price in your mind, since price has settled down from volatility.

Quote
That will come next month, as the Winklevoss ETF judgment is due in less than four weeks. What do you think of this statement?

i think it will be a big and a good news for bitcoin but only if it is accepted. and besides it is not going to happen overnight so i disagree with the 65% rise after the ETF because that would mean going up to $1650 and you are forgetting about the resistance.

That is what I think too. The People's Bank of China will not stop until they satisfactorily get the Chinese Bitcoin exchanges under their will. They might be viewing Bitcoin as a slap in the face because by design it can circumvent laws and can squeeze its way in and disrupt the financial system if the PBOC is not careful. We have already seen the initial reaction of Chinese traders resort to Localbitcoins. I believe they will block it next and try to criminalize anyone who uses it. Next phase will be decentralized exchanges which will give the PBOC another big problem.

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