Bitcoin Forum

I've talked about this in several threads before but I want to make a thread dedicated for it.

Looking for Bears that want to bet against bitcoin.

I am confident in Bitcoin in the days to come so I am looking to express this view without daytrading. Thus I will provide people with the option to short bitcoin with 'binary options' (i.e, what financial institutions use as a fancy way of saying 'bets') so you bears can profit from your 'superior knowledge.'

I offer 2 simple ways of making your bet:

Down: You bet Bitcoin will go down. If the Gox price is lower (even by 1 cent!) than when you make the bet after a designated period of time, you will double your money. If not, you will lose your money.

One-touch: You bet Bitcoin will touch a specific value (lower than the current) within the next designated time period. If it does, you will double your money. If not, you will lose your money. This is useful because even if we go into what you bears call "bull traps" you still make money.

For one-touch, I feel a daily trade is more easily tracked because the "low" is clearly available on gox. Today, the market in one day had a ~25% range of values (from $109 to $136). In order for it to be considered a possible "bear" market, more than half of this variance must be over half of this range. So, I will make the target value for one-touch 13% lower than the current price with a time period of 24 hours as a starting offer.

Obviously I am willing to negotiate and take offers. As for trust, I can assure you I am trustworthy and require users that I personally do not trust (don't take it personally, I probably just haven't got to know you yet) to give me your Bitcoins before starting the bet. In many cases I assume we can go on the honor system and pay each other after the bet is complete. I encourage you to start with a small bet to get to know you can trust me.

This offer may be removed or changed whenever I personally feel. Obviously I will still honor outstanding bets. No need to send me a PM, just post in this thread so the forum can back us up in case of a conflict which increases trust. All prices both opening and closing are based on gox price.

PROFIT CALCULATIONS

-'DOWN' bets:
current price/strike price : 1
Example:
If you bet 1BTC that the price would close lower than 100 when the price is 125, and it did, you would get 1BTC*(125/100) = 1.25BTC as your profit.

-Daily 'STRIKE' bests:
You will double your money if the price reaches 13% lower than the current price within a time period of 24 hours.

I can already hear the crickets. But I hope someone takes you up on your bet....entertainment lol

I'm a bear, and the idea seems fun but... how am I supposed to bet? I don't have any BTC, I sold them all!  ;D

*EDIT*
My post may seem as a joke, but I'm serious. I'm thinking the price will go down the drain, I'm out of the market for the time being and I'm sitting on my pile of cash waiting for the price to go down. A real bear shouldn't have any BTC left to bet.

Step 1: Set up bet with me.
Step 2: Buy bitcoins (which you've hedged out of anyway because of your bet with me, don't worry, your not 'really' buying coins).
Step 3: Lose those bitcoins in your bet.

Do you have any money in any exchange ever?

EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.

Also for further reference, I've created a custom address for this, 1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR, which I'll be using to receive all funds.

EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.

I think your step 3 is wrong ;)

But seriously, I don't see how it is an interesting deal. We make a bet of 10 BTC at 100$ each for example. If I win, I double my money (20 BTC)....but I win only if the price goes down. If the price goes down 50% and more, I'm not making any money on the original deal. Getting 20 BTC at 50$.....why am I betting in the first place?

But in your case, if you win, it means that the price went up. So, you're winning 20 BTC of more value than the original BTC of the deal.

I don't see how your bet offer can be profitable for any bear. The margin where he can win and profit is small (between minus 1% and 50% of the original price) while you have an infinite margin where you can win and profit.

The advantage always goes to the bull because the bull can express his position without the help of the bear but the bear can't do so without the help of the bull. Still, I agree its unfair that the bear can actually lose money if the price goes down too much. Thus, for "down" bets (for one-touch I will send the BTC when the price hits the one-touch so they aren't exposed to additional downside risk) I'll 'hedge' you out of BTC: If you win, and the price goes down I'll cover the loss.

Bottom line: No matter what, if you win the bet, you will win money. I'm not trying to pull any dick shit (other than take advantage of the bad predictions of bears)!

The other direction is perfectly fair, as if I win, I have the right to do what I want with your money, and what I want to do is buy bitcoins.

and so the informal Bitcoin derivatives trade was born.

How about, we 'bears' just sit and watch what happens.

If we are correct, and over time, Bitcoin finds a base at a much lower price range, then at that point, providing we think the fundamentals for future growth are still in good shape (I am talking steady and/or thriving existing or newly established Bitcoin market places such as Silk Road), then we enter at that price point, whatever it may be.

If we are wrong, and this time it is indeed 'different', and the price stabilises between $100-$150, before taking off into the stratosphere never to return, with the whole world chomping at the bit to get hold of some Bitcoins no matter what the price, then we miss out.

In December 2012, it was not provident to be a bear as happenings have proven. The bulls however, I would suggest owe their good fortune more to luck other than to any personal insight or genius on their own part. The exponential price explosion was I suspect caused by relatively few players as opposed to any of the other reasons that are often cited on forums such as this. In short, nobody could have predicted what happened.

Now however, that we have had the hyperbolic rise and crash, an almost endless history of graphs and charts of previous asset price bubbles give a pretty good indication of what is to come some time down the line. Of course, there is always the chance that there is some other X factor at work here and that this time, it really is different. But this wouldn't be the side of the argument that the risk averse money would choose.

The difference is, that you will be making money while you wait, and that if you choose you will never have to long bitcoin at all.

Those bets could be cheated at, just a warning for bigger bets.

If you have enough BC and bet a lot if BCs on BCs going down, you can throw a pig pile on the market to let them go down.
(or if you have enough cash, buy BCs to let them go up)

You'd have to have an ass load of money to do so, and even if you did, you'd probably lose more than you'd win anyways.

Or the bears could bet against the price of Bitcoin going up to $10,000 in the next few years:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1532

Bad bet, I have no trust in USD ;D

These kinds of bets are rather complex to get fair...

How about this one:

If price goes over USD250 first I owe you USD250
If price goes under USD50 first you owe me BTC5

Ah... Greed makes the world go round. And sometimes broke  ;D

I would like to have a bet like this, but in $. Meaning that I like the Bitcoin infrastructure for sending and receiving value, but right now I can not trust the stability of BTC (what stability?).

For example a 10$ bet that after x hours the price will be lower.
Using MtGox price as enter price, exit price and of course outcome price.

And as far as I know BTC is quoted much detailed than 'cents'.

Considering that I trust you for now, we have to settle the time correlations.

Very well, I will still complete the transactions in bitcoins however as I have no other way of paying you. I will scale your winnings or losings according to current price of bitcoin.

Which bet type do you want?

So basically I will bet 1$ that the Mtgox price will be lower than now after exactly 1 hour.
I think that https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker (https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker)  is a good source.

So at the moment 1$=0.0082651 BTC
And the opening price is 120.99 BTCUSD

Okay, accepted. Your source seems fine. Ending time is 04:49:11 PM server time (Bitcointalk server time) which is 1 hour from when you posted.

I'm ready to bet 10.000$ that 3 months from now the average price for all BTCs sold on mtgox during a week is under 100$. So we pull the order list from mtgox, multiply quantity with price, add and divide by total sold. If it's under 100$ you give me 20.000$ back, if it's over you keep the original 10.000$. I don't care what happens to the $ in the meantime as long as you have liquid assets to cover the 20.000$, and by 'liquid' I mean anything other than bitcoins.

Easy money, this is as good as shorts get; unfortunately you can't convince me that I can do this safely without exposing myself to BTC volatility and without trusting a random guy on a forum...

I have a feeling that I am losing.
What about a premature ending of the bet?
I give you 0.5$ NOW and we mutually agree to end the bet?



Or if anyone is interested to buy this "losing" bet for only 0.5$??

selling for 0.3

 ::)

0.2$

0.1$ ??

ok lost

price is 124.09
1$=0.008058

let's say 0.0081

where should i pay?

1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR

What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?

I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?

This was entertaining to watch

The first one was sort of me trolling.

I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120.

A month is still somewhat short... but might be interesting.

But before that, what kind of sums is this about, given a trustworthy escrow? (Should I call in some speculators and ask about 5-digit USD bets?)

How about end of May?

for 150 strike price

and another one

for 100 strike price

What odds would I get? Obviously should be different than 1:1.
And the bet should be in USD of course.

by the way

https://blockchain.info/address/1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR (https://blockchain.info/address/1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR)

proof of concept

150 for strike price? Thats above current price. -_-

I know.
And 100 is below the current price.
That's why I have asked about ODDS.

Have you received "my dollar" ?

Indeed I did receive your dollar xD
I'll get back to you on odds.

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature ;)

Egads there's huge loopholes in this bet


To make this statement true, any trade for any amount of BTC for any amount of $ over 500 would work.  So I could buy 100BTC at $120/per and close the bet. 

Make it "the cost of one BTC will be greater than 500 USD at any time before 1/1/14".  Do that and I'm in.

Here are my odds. We are currently ~25% above $100, so assuming 1 month from now we are below $100 (i.e, down bet, NOT one-touch) you will receive 125% of your bet in profit.

I'm not going to do a one-touch of $100 as that has way too good of a chance of happening. However I'm willing to do a one-touch of $90, with 1:1 odds. You will receive 100% of your bet in profit if you win.

I'm willing to do:

"On Mount Gox, at least 1 trade will occur before 1/1/14 with the exchange rate of $500 = 1 BTC"

1. we do need an escrow for that

2. ok sounds interesting

3. if I extend your judgement I presume you would expect a similar reversed odds for the 150 BET? 

Let's do some math: current price 128.44

150/128= 1.171875

so I pay about 1.2 you pay 1. The winner takes the pot.

am I right?

Better and more elegant:

What if the odds are exactly current price/100 : 1 for the down bet to be less than 100 at the end of May (right now, apparently more safer for you)

and 1: 150/current price for the down bet to be less than 150 at the end of May (for now, more safer for me)

What do you say?

We need an escrow.
I may want to bet more than 1$.

DERPED SEE NEXT REPLY!

Okay this is better.

This is legit. If you can find an escrow I trust, I'll go for it. Note I will not use betsofbitco.in because they trolled me in the past. Or you could just trust me. Either way, I'm in.

EDIT: I'm actually going to put that in OP, its a good form of standardized odds.

Also, being a bear (at least for now) I like USD so the problem comes when we end the bet, and the bear wins.
You need to provide a bigger collateral than the initial BTC deposit. Just imagine if BTC is down to 50$.
If the BULL wins then my collateral is more than enough to pay for your wins.

I think we should set some predefined limits if we need to end the bet in advance.

I'm not understanding the problem. You just exchange the coins upon their being received.

IF we use an escrow we should deposit the money at the beginning of the bet. And if the price of BTC is down you won't have enough to pay in USD.
 That's why I asked for an initial bigger collateral in BTC from the bull.

If we don't use an escrow... then we don't. We have to trust each other in USD, and in extreme cases I think there would be some problems. Like BTC very high I could default or very low you could.

About the one touch bet:

current price 128.5

strike price (anytime within the next 24 hours)

128.5*0.87=111.795

Bet for 100 USD!

no escrow for now.

com'on

I'm still not understanding what you want. The escrow simply exchanges the BTC upon receiving it.

BTC (from me) + BTC (from you) -> Escrow -> Exchange -> $$$ to escrow -> Time goes by, winner wins the money -> Exchange -> BTC to escrow (we've been hedged out of BTC so no risk to you) -> BTC to winner.

yes, that can be a solution but would put an additional burden on the escrow.

what about the one touch bet ?

do you confirm? see up.

Confirmed. Expiration: 01:12:32 AM 4/21/2013 UTC.

Ignore

We are in bear mode! Doesn't someone want to short!

maybe because it's silly to agree to a bet in which your winnings are denominated in the currency whose exchange rate your bet is against.

Read thread please.

I've been trying to work out how escrow would work in a multi-currency bet like this.  Escrow implies lack of trust that the parties will pay up honestly, of course.

Take a simple case of 50/50 odds.  Each bets BTC1/$100, as today's price is $100.

Bear target:$50
Time: 1 month

Both parties expect to double their money (n their respective currencies) if they win the bet.

If the bear wins, the bitcoin the bull deposited is only worth $50, so the bear will only get half his winnings.

If the bull wins, the US$ the bear deposited may buy less that BTC1.

If all bets are converted to US$ on initiation, the bear is covered, but the bull may lose even if he wins.  If all bets are converted to bitcoin on deposit, the bull is covered but the bear may lose even if he wins.

What  you really need here is a futures contract.  The bull needs a futures contract to sell BTC1 at today's price in 1 month.  The bear needs a futures contract to buy BTC1 at today's price in 1 month.  So what you really have is a future's contract between the two parties, each of whom doesn't trust the other will/can deliver.

Short of each participant depositing enough in escrow to cover a losing bet (bull to deposit US$100, bear to deposit BTC1), plus a margin to cover adverse exchange movements (say, an extra US$100 from the bear, and an extra BTC1 from the bull, at a minimum), I'm not sure how this would work.

Anyone else got any ideas?

well, in this case at least, it is quite simple, we agreed from the beginning to have the bet in USD. And use Bitcoin just for value transmitting properties.

For higher value bets we do need an escrow able to receive BTC and transfer it to USD, than keep the dollars safe until the end.
I think this is not a trivial problem.

If you're willing to trust me and mtgox, I can offer said service.  I am in Australia, so my USD account is empty.   There are others on these forums that offer escrow services as well.

I am always willing to short, but not on bad odds.

what's your price?

This is the first time I've done this, so I'll offer it for the cost of the conversion trades on each side (0.6% each way, per person, so 1.2% each).

The only proviso is that I won't carry any delay risks for conversion of bitcoin to US$.  As long as the size of the bets aren't large and you send the coins when I'm awake and at a vaguely pre-determined time, the price you send at should be the price I buy at.

 ;D

for small bets I do not need escrow. As you can see I already trusted OP with a 100 USD bet (and another  1$ already finished).

So for a large bet we have to trust you AND MtGox.

But I have read this

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169957.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169957.0)

http://www.bitescrow.org/ (http://www.bitescrow.org/)

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/User:Casascius/Escrow_scheme_draft (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/User:Casascius/Escrow_scheme_draft)

and this a different aproach.

And a better one!


We do not have to trust the escrow, we need the third party only as a judge if we do not agree.  And the judge can not "run-away" with the wage. He needs one of us.

The only problem is that this is an essentially Bitcoin technology (Another good reason to be long term bullish), so considering that I want the bet to be denominated in USD, the bull has to deposit more BTC at the begining, just to cover BTC decline in price.
On the other hand if the the Bull wins he will take only a part from the deposit equivalent to USD (higher price BTCUSD).

So we can pay the "judge" only if we need his opinion; or a basic small fee for keeping the 3rd key and a bigger fee if we need his opinion.

I recall seeing this before, and have now read into it further.  This looks incredibly cool.  I'd love to act as 3rd party just to give it a try.

I guess the only downside is, as you acknowledge, the bull needs to deposit extra bitcoin to account for adverse exchange movement.

I'm guessing that this would be implemented as two separate three-party transactions, given that each transaction has a single payer?

exactly!

:D

This is really cool.  I've just been playing with http://www.bitescrow.org/

Took a while for me to get my head around it, but damn, this is an awesome idea.

1. Since when were you shorting, you looked like a permabull.
2. I pretty much offer the best odds on binary options on any instrument anywhere.

I guess I will win this time.

of course we need a price quotation from somewhere else.

No, we will wait till Gox gives a price just like said in the OP. The price you picked on open was based on the goxxian price, btc-e was already much lower than gox was at the time.

I would propose an average from the others exchanges.

what if MtGox is down forever?

MtGox won't be down forever? Its a DDOS attack. People that think its going to randomly be down forever are the people that sell off like idiots. And if it were, we would all be so screwed $100 would be the least of our problems.

It'll probably be back up by the time the bet expires anyway. If it isn't, then we can worry about other stuff.

See? up already :)

sort of slow revival.

'Tis very normal.

So?

Have I won or what?

Yuhuu!

You can pay in my signature address.

At current price would be 0.8 BTC.

But of course you can wait the end of day maybe you'll get a better quote.

Yup, You've won. Give me I'll pay you in the next 2 hours, I'm on my phone and don't trust myself making payments there :)

Done:

7aa32d827886c4a441c21c22fdf0c0421511a082490ad374ea15796fd80e52d7

Any other takers?

have you payed a transaction fee?
it has not showed anywhere.

what a coincidence!
first block now

Its a gox address so I have noticed they take a really long time even when I do pay transaction fee. Not sure why.

Monday is coming, and so the bears must be expecting another crash like last week. No more bets?

thanks! done.

Bumping this...
y'all now have proof I pay, whats your excuse not to bet bears?

We have a member of bears anonymous. Ooo, how exciting! Two bets as well. Bet term's sha'd, user as well.

Bet 1:
4526bd9cc3a2506ca25acfc8bd266ca40d0392dfeed36fcda9a8dfbb4a14af35

Bet 2:
92ba8d72ed7b634d15b92e06a5842c4551ca7fd3724868e40cffe77dad86f6d9

EDIT: Noobed on a hash, had to edit. please quote me somebody.
EDIT: Had to edit AGAIN for greater specificity. This was confirmed by the bear and the bet is finally final :). If somebody could quote this and my next post now for geater security, that would be wonderful. I want to maintain my trust.

This anoymous betting thing is all hip now isn't it.

7c0bb1bfc75ac100f6a37e44a41ff1f8fd0d883281ccd6552e46d25ce5f3c98d

Bumping this for posterity (and for the bears that have come out of the woodwork due to the latest 'crash.')

You didn't do that before or during the crash though ;)
I am interested since you didn't reply to my offer on my own terms: Will you accept the bet the instance I post if I comply to your terms or only when it seems convenient for you?
Will you accept my bet if I just say lower in one hour if a selloff is on the horizon?

+1

Where exactly did you make this offer?
I'd be an absolute idiot to do a short term bet when it is obvious to me that a selloff is coming, and I see nothing contradictory about that. I didn't make this thread to randomly give money away, I made this thread to make money. I think the price will go up, and am looking for leverage. If I think the price is going to go down in the short term obviously I am not going to take any bets in the short term. I am willing to make a longer term bets at any time however.

right there

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

Why? If it does stay between 50 and 250 forever then we would be even.

Because people on this forum tend to mysteriously disappear after a year or so of being bored and I'd rather close bets after some period?

Don't worry I'll be around.

take it or leave it.

OH BTW:  8)
https://i.imgur.com/bFAG9C0.png

OP how does this sound: you let someone bet anytime they want for 1:1. Its like you are a bookie .
But if the OP wants to bet when he wants to bet, I would think he should give odds because it is on his terms.
you should start up a numbers game on here. like a lottery the last two or three digits of the volume at mt gox at a certain time would be the winning numbers. you could make some good loot on here.

Bookies don't let anyone bet for 1:1 whenever they want. Because if they did, they'd constantly lose money.
Thats called a random number generator, not an educated guess like I am trying to create on here. If you want that play satoshidice.

This feels dubious. How will settlement be handled?

What is the significance of this?

It costs 13.37M USD to 250.
And you just made your 666th post, now if that isn't prophetic what else is?  :P

What do you mean with settlement? I use BTC-e but I gladly accept prices in mtgox, if you prefer gox codes I'd convert it for you of course.
I don't care if the BTC are on a exchange or you send a transaction.

what kind of bookie do you have? my boook will take my bet anytime there is a game going? i bet a basketball game I put up $110 to win $100 is that what you are alluding to when you are saying that they give odds?

Very well, confirmed. $250 @ 250 price is 1 BTC.

Electric Mucus shall pay Kazu (me) 1 BTC should the Goxxian "Last price" exchange rate ever trade at over $250. I will pay Electric Mucus 5 BTC if this exchange rate ever drops below $50. My address for which the designated amount should be payed is 14eGu2p3jTW9wZ9bS6Lvk14kPTzwpzUWj8.

obviously the prices are GOX LAST TRADE values as specified, and they shall remain GOX LAST TRADE unless both of us agree to change the bet. Under no circumstance will any "averages" of exchange prices be used. Please confirm my last post.

Yes, they set it so the value is always way less than 1:1 if they expect that team to win for obvious reasons. Unless I somehow get enormous interest in this thread I'm not going to have time to constantly update my odds and thus such a system is not viable unless this thread generated enough interest to warrant my creation of a small website.

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair ;)
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC. You can buy BTC of course with them once you won the bet. This way we have the same risk of the price overshooting/undershooting at the target.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

That may be so, but these are my terms. I take the risk of the BTC being worth less and less once the price breaks 50, it is only fair that you are exposed to the same risk.

And why exactly, may I ask, did you have me pay you in a form that can be publicly verified while you will pay me in a way that cannot? As you put it, fair is fair.

See above,
If there is a method to make the transaction publicly verifiable I would do that. But it has to be in dollar. (Could we use ripple?)

Once again, please explain why I am paying you in a better currency than you are paying me.
here's how you pay me in USD and make it publicly verifiable:
-You go to the place where you would give me a key
-You suddenly direct your mouse in a sudden movement upwards and to the left.
-You click on "trade"
-You buy bitcoins
-You then withdraw those bitcoins to me.
That so hard? It seems really odd why there is any reason you would not wish to pay me in such a manner. I'll tell you what, if this is whats bugging you so, I'll pay the 0.6% transaction fee  ;)

If there is some legitimate reason for you not wanting to pay me in bitcoins, please speak. If not, I see no reason to agree to a bet where you seem to be on purpose creating circumstances that are not transparent.

Again these are my terms, you either agree to them or you don't.

This is a taste of your own medicine.  :-*
BTW: I am willing to accept exchange codes too btw this way neither of us has the advantage. It would even be instant vs waiting for 6 conformations....

PS: I was really looking forward to this superiority complex of yours. ;)

hey mucus I think he may have got you. this thing could be at $250 by the end of this month. I just cant see this thing go under $50 unless something is totally orchestrated by mt gox.

So I can agree to something where you can fake a payment, or I don't. From a person who provides no valid reason to wanting to pay through this method that can be faked.

Hmm, this is a tough decision. How about no?

Also, how is not wanting to be scammed translate into a superiority complex?

You can send me an exchange code denominated in BTC too. This way I have the exact same risk of getting scammed you have.

This is getting dumber and dumber. So the way to make it "fair" is to provide me with a way of cheating you out of winning in return for me providing you with a way of cheating me out of winning?

This is nonsense and makes no sense for either of us, unless one of us plans on cheating. Even if the loser is truthful, the loser can be all "oh, I didn't receive the exchanger code" and damage the loser's reputation. If the loser cheats, well, thats fairly self explanatory.

And all the while we have a completely transparent currency available to us that makes sure we both are true to our word. Hmm, I wonder why you don't want to use that.

I agree.

for christsakes just bet and use this thread as proof

1. Post a fake redemption code
2. claim that the winner already claimed it when it doesn't work
3. ???
4. Profit

There is simply no reason for him not wanting to pay me in BTC, considering I even covered his marginal "expense" in the exchange. Absolutely zero, other than him wanting to cheat me.

This is bullshit. You either pay me with BTC, or provide me with some fool-proof method of payment that can be publicly verified, or there is no bet.

I already explained to you this is about risk.
If you win you take the risk of lost profits due to the price of BTC shooting above 250 before I can give you the USD. If I win I take the risk of BTC loosing value before you can give me the BTC.

If I win I take the risk that BTC goes below $250 before you can give me the BTC. If you win you take the risk that BTC drops below $250 before paying me the USD.

???

Obviously it should not be in the loser's incentive to withhold the money for as long as possible hoping that the price declines and/or goes up. The bet should be set up to incentivise the loser to pay the winner as soon as possible.

So just pay me $250 using the exchange rate at the time? At least that way its all public, even though you could still pull some shit about "oh, I was offline while it was skyrocketting, sorry." At least that way everyone can see what you pulled, and I am at least secured for my original $250 USD, even if I don't get to exchange it to BTC at the optimal exchange rate.

In other words, you will be liable to pay me $250 worth of BTC, i.e $250 worth going by the exchange rate at the time the transaction was made. Happy? We switched the "risk" in the other direction. Swell.

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.

Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

I want YOU to be subjected to the same risk I am in case of a winning bet.

This is the center point of me coming up with the bet BTW...

Lets walk through this step-by-step. What risk are YOU subjected to given the conditions stated above?

If BTC breaks 50 it is likely that by the time I receive it it will already be worth less than 50 Dollars. In a way you are not even subjected to the same risk I am you only lose profit.
(Good luck with the "But it's not Bitcoin going up it's the USD losing value." straw man)

By your own reasoning, you wanted us to take the same risk. Your risk is that BTC will go down in value after hitting $50. My risk is BTC going down in value after hitting $250. They're one and the same.

Or, if you would, like, I could pay you in your favorite exchange codes  ;D

I think that has been debated long enough. You see that risk is the center-point of why I suggested this bet.

It seems you got it, all you have to do now is deciding if you are willing to take that risk.
I now leave you to your own meddling, contact me if you decide to take me up on that so that we can make a new thread.

nuff said.

I have no idea why you suggested this bet, but clearly risk has no part in it.

You, pay me, $250 worth of bitcoins if the price tanks, and I pay you $250 worth of bitcoins if the price goes to $50. If you are in favor of trolling, then if you must we can do it at the exchange price at the time the transaction was made. Neither side takes any more risk than the other. No risk for you.

I even offered you your mumbo jumbo exchange code troll you are so enthralled with. But no, you maintain that YOU must be the one paying ME in the exchange code, and there is absolutely no reason for you to take this stance other than either (A) on purpose trying trying to play "hard to get" or something equally weird or (B) intentionally trying to scam me.

Yeah, yeah we already had that, you are repeating yourself.

Of course we already had that, and you still have not made any of this mystical extra risk you are taking on clear.

Your suggested bet was "I pay you 250 USD (apparently through an exchange code though that was not stated until much later) if it goes above $250, I pay you 5 BTC when it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at time of you exchanging out of them.
Your Benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them





Then I suggested "You pay me 1 BTC if it goes above $250, I pay you 5 BTC when it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at time of you exchanging out of them, you being late to exchange and 1 BTC being worth more than $250 at the time you exchange.
Your Benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them, AND you being late to exchange and 1 BTC is now worth less than $250 at the time you exchange.

But according to you the bolded two don't cancel out (indicating that you are actually bullish, but whatever). So then I suggest:




"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you 5 BTC if it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at the time of you exchanging out of them
Your benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them.

Which is EXACTLY THE SAME as the risks you were subjected to in your own bet. But for whatever reason you don't like it. So then I offer you a bet that eliminates the risk (and the accompanying benefit) of your own bet:




"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which my transaction is made, if it goes below $50."

Your risk: none
Your benefit: none

You don't like that either. Okay, whatever. So then I offer you your own scheme in reverse:





"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you $250 in MTGox redemption codes."

Your risk: Me cheating with the exchange code.
Your benefit: none



Which you then deny as well, thereby acknowledging the unviability of your own bet. Clearly, seeing as NONE of my proposed options please you, even the one which subjects you to the EXACT SAME BENEFITS & RISKS of your own scheme, aside from the benefit of you potentially scamming me, you are trolling.

EDIT: I like colours.

well if you read carefully my "wall of text" here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182205.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182205.0)

you discover that you can have any sort of transaction, using any "currency" as base without really changing the bitcoins to currency.

Long text, I know!
I would appreciate if anyone can make it more concise.

And if you agree that a "BET" is basically a two sided transactions then here you are a safe method to bet in any currency using the BTC infrastructure.

Optionally you will need a judge/escrow but the system itself has the incentive so that the participants should be honest. Only if the participants disagree the judge steps in.
(Additional qualities besides being public on BTC network.)

To be honest I am a short/medium term bear so I am interested in betting in a different currency than BTC now. But I aknowledge this safety system works because of the intrinsic properties of BTC network

So LONG term bullish!

Is this deal still open?

Beat me to it.

I'm not bearish long term, but buys on gox will suffer amid the more casual US trader seeing gox-->fiat liquidity evaporate with the stroke of pen.

On the contrary, if you can't get USD out, your only option is to buy.

Anyway that is academic, because you can still get USD out -- just not via Dwolla. I get the feeling that whales don't use Dwolla ;-)

Thanks for bumping this. Yes the offer is still open.