Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

[Kazu]

So basically I will bet 1$ that the Mtgox price will be lower than now after exactly 1 hour.
I think that https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker  is a good source.

So at the moment 1$=0.0082651 BTC
And the opening price is 120.99 BTCUSD

Okay, accepted. Your source seems fine. Ending time is 04:49:11 PM server time (Bitcointalk server time) which is 1 hour from when you posted.

[1714671005]

1714671005

[1714671005]

1714671005

[1714671005]

1714671005

[BubbleBoy]

I'm ready to bet 10.000$ that 3 months from now the average price for all BTCs sold on mtgox during a week is under 100$. So we pull the order list from mtgox, multiply quantity with price, add and divide by total sold. If it's under 100$ you give me 20.000$ back, if it's over you keep the original 10.000$. I don't care what happens to the $ in the meantime as long as you have liquid assets to cover the 20.000$, and by 'liquid' I mean anything other than bitcoins.

Easy money, this is as good as shorts get; unfortunately you can't convince me that I can do this safely without exposing myself to BTC volatility and without trusting a random guy on a forum...

[adraza]

So basically I will bet 1$ that the Mtgox price will be lower than now after exactly 1 hour.
I think that https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker  is a good source.

So at the moment 1$=0.0082651 BTC
And the opening price is 120.99 BTCUSD

Okay, accepted. Your source seems fine. Ending time is 04:49:11 PM server time (Bitcointalk server time) which is 1 hour from when you posted.

I have a feeling that I am losing.
What about a premature ending of the bet?
I give you 0.5$ NOW and we mutually agree to end the bet?



Or if anyone is interested to buy this "losing" bet for only 0.5$??

[adraza]

selling for 0.3

 

[adraza]

0.2$

[adraza]

0.1$ ??

[adraza]

ok lost

[adraza]

price is 124.09
1$=0.008058

let's say 0.0081

where should i pay?

[Kazu]

price is 124.09
1$=0.008058

let's say 0.0081

where should i pay?

1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR

[Vandroiy]

What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?

I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?

[im3w1l]

This was entertaining to watch

[Kazu]

What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?

I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?

The first one was sort of me trolling.

I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120.

[Vandroiy]

The first one was sort of me trolling.

I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120.

A month is still somewhat short... but might be interesting.

But before that, what kind of sums is this about, given a trustworthy escrow? (Should I call in some speculators and ask about 5-digit USD bets?)

[adraza]

How about end of May?

for 150 strike price

and another one

for 100 strike price

What odds would I get? Obviously should be different than 1:1.
And the bet should be in USD of course.

[adraza]

by the way

https://blockchain.info/address/1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR

[adraza]

proof of concept

[Kazu]

How about end of May?

for 150 strike price

and another one

for 100 strike price

What odds would I get? Obviously should be different than 1:1.
And the bet should be in USD of course.

150 for strike price? Thats above current price. -_-

[adraza]

I know.
And 100 is below the current price.
That's why I have asked about ODDS.

Have you received "my dollar" ?

[Kazu]

I know.
And 100 is below the current price.
That's why I have asked about ODDS.

Have you received "my dollar" ?

Indeed I did receive your dollar xD
I'll get back to you on odds.

[DoomDumas]

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature