Bitcoin Forum

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled


I then took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 4.1 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and December 6th 2010)


-----------------------------------

Scenario 2

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

28th Feb 2017 bitcoin price was $1177

Time interval between both dates is 2418 days or 79.497 months


 then i took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years, again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 5.473 months   ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and Feb 28th 2017)

which gives the following price predictions


March 1st 2018 - $5,403 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $24,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $112,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $516,115 Per 1 BTC


both scenarios assume that the price doubling is constant going forward , and yes i know it wont actually happen like that , but it a good excersise to see how close i end up being to my original scenario 1 & 2 predictions


Thats how i worked out my predictions, i also took into account that a lot of technologies grow on an exponential curve, and i think that Bitcoin is one such "technology"

good post. it would have been 10 times better if you said these things on a chart that you extrapolated the data using some lines.

i should add that the speed of price rise goes down as time passes, it means in the first years the rises could easily be 1000% or more in a year for instance but as time passed and it reached the 7th and 8th year the rises became 300% or 180% in a year.

so until next year i would expect something between 100% to 200% price rise compared to this year price.

also i should add that there are some stuff that can change this speed. for example if some kind of adoption happens. for example if ETF is approved, if some other thing happens that can cause a big adoption, it can lead to much more price rise upto 500% and more.

Predictions like this tend to forget one rather important thing, rises happen because real people put real money in. The bigger the rise, the more real people are required. You can't magic them up from nowhere.

Real people are not predictable and they're extremely conservative as to where they throw their money. The latecomers will be more conservative than the nutters who arrived early.

If there are enough of them then that isn't a problem but nothing happens in a vacuum.

And I don't think the technological S curve can apply to something so complex that requires people to really think. Very few know anything about money. Adopting mobile phones or the internet was a no brainer.

ok, i can work on a chart , a good idea

the doubling effect ( From Moore's law) is well known in the tech world, think internet usage, cell phones, etc

so Bitcoin will follow the S-Curve of technological adoption

( its called the S Curve simply because of its letter "S" shape, its defining characteristic is the extremely slow exponential ramp up to the point at which the growth goes "vertical" and big majority adoption is rapidly achieved)

we are still in the Innovators/Early adoption stage

Economy is not magic numbers.
Sadly this is true.
It is human behavioural thingy. These expections will never happen if it doesnt hold interest.

Big & median  money and most people are not in the "game" yet

most money comes in at 34% point of adoption ( the early majority ) and again at the 68% point of adoption ( the late majority)

we are currently somewhere between 7 and 13% point of adoption , so we still have a while to go


Pierre 2 :  Bitcoin has "legs" , this is going to be around in 20+ years time  so it will hold interest

( dont make the "IBM mistake" :  Personal computers? no one will want one of those in their home  - an IBM chiefy Exec )

There is of course massive potential, but this is money first and technology second. Don't underestimate how emotive a subject money is and how uneducated most people are about it.

Applying technological parallels discounts that factor which is vastly more powerful.

Your assumption I will say its correct because its backed by fact which can be verified. However, what you fail to take into consideration is the qualitative factors that might happen as you have only limited your assumptions to only quantitative factors alone. Also, you also need to know past information or historical information are not a determinant of the future as they are only good for prediction in which you have done.

But what to do then when BTC is worth 4mln fiat money. Transfer it to fiat? Nah fiat will be useless when so many people are using BTC in that period. Buying land/houses i suppose? Even a girlfriend ? I will be a great sugardaddy i guess

wow its really a good dream for me if i can see the price is increase until that price. i imagine, that if the price is really reach that price in 2018 or at least in the end of 2017, we see the price is $5000, do you can think how much people that can buy bitcoin in that price? do you think that almost all people in bitcoin community can buy bitcoin for that price? is that the price is not too higher while bitcoin itself is too young to be in that price? and many question in my head to see your scenario but i do have the same dream like you.

I'm sorry but this is dreaming, the whole world isn't just going to jump on like techy earlybirds did.  The gross world product is approximately 107 trillion and 107 trillion divided by the potential 21 million Bitcoin is around $5,000,000 so Scenario 1 suggests that nearly the entire world will have all of their money in Bitcoin within the next 4 years.

Wikipedia estimates that around 47% of the world uses the Internet based on 2016 statistics, but your scenario requires nearly three quarters of the world's GDP to be based online within 4 years.  I appreciate that areas with less access to the Internet might have a lower GDP per capita, but still the scenario isn't just unfeasible, it's impossible.

Even scenario 2 is ridiculous because people don't just leap on new ideas which they don't necessarily understand.  Especially when most people don't have unlimited data everywhere and the ability to just use their Bitcoin every day at any place.

To me it's a bit strange to see such kind of predictions from newbie, sorry. Add to that there isn't any real sources and facts, which would prove this calculations. Now it looks just like I think that the price for bitcoin is going to be 5000$ next year, just cause of I think so.

Hope your prediction gets real,
It seems that it is a huge pump to come if your prediction is become real.

im a "newbie" as you call me , on this forum

ok

but i've been in bitcoin since late 2011 , ive been through Mt Gox when it was the only exchange, ( and got my BTC's out a month before it went belly up() i've seen all the high's and low's , l've seen the peak rises and all the drops , i was on Crypsy and countless others, manged to get out always in time

i've seen  the adoption rate increase slowly over time

and i've educated probably 100+  people these past 6 years, 90% of of which still have BTC and are actively seeking to buy more as and when their funds permit

and i also buy more from time to time!

in fact i may of even been on this forum many years ago under i different handle, i can't remember , lol

this is a prediction thread and a prediction post !,

but i will update this post  every 2 or 3 months with the current price mutiplier to see if my numbers are any way near being in the ball park, as we go forward in time

edit for Sven, actually there sources and facts  > 1. look up the prices on the dates mentioned in the original post  > 2. then do the math ( you will need log calcs & to the power of etc to work it out), you will find the calcs are correct ( based on the historical start and end price data ) .

Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited").
In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower.
By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa.
By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.

wow: there's some doom...

my advice: sell every BTC you have now while the current prices are are much higher than your predicted future prices

here is a question: bacteria divides once in 20 min, how long would it take for the progeny of one bacteria to exceed the mass of Earth (providing that bacteria continues proliferation as described). Bacterial mass and Earth's mass are easily discernable/available.
Hint: not that long, but i like to hear your estimate  ;D

Conclusion: projections of current trends into the future are prone to be erroneous...fast.
Cheers

sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.

well, up to the point...your speculation is based on numerology:a belief that if you attach an exponent to current numbers, you can predict what happens in the future, so all numbers that you state are simply not possible (bacteria example just illustrates the point).

actually its based on Moore's Law , that over a given period of time things ( price, uptake,  the amount of transistors on a chip etc) double
then you need to work out the doubling time..

Moore's law works well with tech items

i'm not using numerology, i'm using good old fashioned mathamatics

and at the end of the day , its just my speculation of where the price MAY be in 1, 2 and 3 years time ( which will change from my original post as i will adjust my pricing points as the months go by as i get more (historical) pricing data)

Moore's law only applies to the transistors in a chip, and even then it's not 100% accurate.  In other things it just won't always happen, especially when it's trying to reach the infinite with something that is inherently finite (money).

i said it was BASED on Moore's law ..

and Moore's law has been applied to many tech things, the doubling always happens, it's the time period  that needs to be calculated for any given usage of the "law"

also, i know it wont BE 100% accurate, THAT'S WHY ITS A PREDICTION

and thats why i will modify it over time, as the months tick on by

Well since Roger Ver and the band of miners really want BTU, the real users of Bitcoin will Sell their BTU and they can be left to mine to a full stop, leaving the real Bitcoin at the same value all through the never to happen sorry saga.

To achieve it Bitcoin needs more advertising and not just rely on ordinary people somehow accidentally discovering Bitcoin and hope they stay fixed enough to jump through the hoops in order to get some.

The software alone means only a certain number of people have the ability to set it up, it needs to be de-nerded quite a lot. Too much talk of past negative events and current squabbling.

I also think predictions have to stay in a holding pattern with the start line being shifted forward until this damn scaling debacle is sorted, without that being resolved, Bitcoin wont reach the stars.

Keep pushing for the resolution that is best in that regard, personally I think SegWit adds the smarts to produce development fever and this is your ticket, not so sure about leaving it as a larger dummy with BTU.

I thini it's correct  ;D


ear   Month   Open   Max   Min   Close   Average   Month%Ch   Total%Ch
2017   May   1353.00   2599.12   1341.22   2306.81   1900.04   70.50%   0.00%
2017   June   2306.81   2306.81   2078.74   2143.03   2208.85   -7.10%   -7.10%
2017   July   2143.03   2364.05   2143.03   2295.19   2236.33   7.10%   -0.50%
2017   August   2295.19   2366.22   2228.38   2297.30   2296.77   0.09%   -0.41%
2017   September   2297.30   2534.22   2297.30   2460.41   2397.31   7.10%   6.66%
2017   October   2460.41   2705.51   2460.41   2626.71   2563.26   6.76%   13.87%
2017   November   2626.71   2897.61   2626.71   2813.21   2741.06   7.10%   21.95%
2017   December   2813.21   3084.94   2813.21   2995.09   2926.61   6.47%   29.84%
2018   January   2995.09   2995.09   2698.97   2782.44   2867.90   -7.10%   20.62%
2018   February   2782.44   2782.44   2521.44   2599.42   2671.44   -6.58%   12.68%
2018   March   2599.42   2867.50   2599.42   2783.98   2712.58   7.10%   20.69%
2018   April   2783.98   3071.09   2783.98   2981.64   2905.17   7.10%   29.25%
2018   May   2981.64   3289.14   2981.64   3193.34   3111.44   7.10%   38.43%
2018   June   3193.34   3193.34   2947.02   3038.17   3092.97   -4.86%   31.70%
2018   July   3038.17   3351.50   3038.17   3253.88   3170.43   7.10%   41.06%
2018   August   3253.88   3253.88   2932.16   3022.85   3115.69   -7.10%   31.04%
2018   September   3022.85   3334.59   3022.85   3237.47   3154.44   7.10%   40.34%
2018   October   3237.47   3571.35   3237.47   3467.33   3378.41   7.10%   50.31%
2018   November   3467.33   3824.92   3467.33   3713.51   3618.27   7.10%   60.98%
2018   December   3713.51   3924.58   3695.96   3810.27   3786.08   2.61%   65.17%
2019   January   3810.27   3810.27   3433.55   3539.74   3648.46   -7.10%   53.45%
2019   February   3539.74   3904.79   3539.74   3791.06   3693.83   7.10%   64.34%
2019   March   3791.06   4182.04   3791.06   4060.23   3956.10   7.10%   76.01%
2019   April   4060.23   4060.23   3813.87   3931.82   3966.54   -3.16%   70.44%

No way in hell, those prices are as if BTC is the only crypto. At the rate it's going now, there will be 10k different cryptocurrencies trading then.

I do really think that there is something wrong with your prediction,by 2020 you are predicting that the price of one bitcoin would be half a million dollar,that is impossible and i am sure people wont purchase coins when the price crosses over $20000,unless you are a millionaire.

Your prediction were wrong :) BTC forked. I am from August 4, 2017 today is the day btc price $2,851 still holding it.

OP has some good analysis but unfortunately the market is not driven by such calculations because this will highly depend on the usage and demand bitcoin keeps building over time

---

Yep prediction was off and bitcoin value is five times what was predicted

That's a good work mate. What you have done matching the price increase taking place with time and matching such scenarios looks good. In specific I would like to add that the effort made will surely help users who have been into bitcoin as well have plans to buy bitcoin for future profiting.

Your predictions seem to be the most correct one according to the internet predictions.

Thank you for a good work.

Optimism is good, but I don't understand why you're optimistic. I do not see any reasoned reasons for the fall in prices now. I'm just seeing this fall. So I don't believe any predictions. It seems to me that the price of bitcoin is so unpredictable that you can expect any development of events. We must intuitively adopt a strategy and follow it clearly.

Just about right..... Waiting for 2019, looks like a tall order from where we stand now.

You expectations are too high. Bitcoin is not a magical thing which can reach such great heights by 2020 or 2021. No doubt Bitcoin has a great potential and enjoys the first-mover advantage. There are many factors which can prevent Bitcoin from reaching onto such heights like FUD, bans, manipulation, etc. but we can only hope that your expectations come true and we can earn great profts.

Scenario 2 from OP seems to be working. He just didnt predict it was to happen in a bear market.

Many of us here wish this should be our reality and if bitcoin could move this way then we would all be rich.  I have think that this price is very achievable though bitcoin is currently having some set back. I think investing into cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular should be what we can do now if we actually want to be rich in future.

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Yeah he's accurate with his prediction for the scenario but I like his scenario 1 for the next years prediction.

It's high but he predicted on the scene 1 of how much bitcoin will be on March 1 2018 was close to the exact price of bitcoin.

I believe no one would know what the prices would be exactly but I can talk about the estimated guess of the movement. I think since dollar and almost all fiat currencies are getting devalued over time it means that by march 2019 we will see bitcoin price higher than what it is today not only because bitcoin is increasing but also dollar is increasing. However, 2020 is something a lot different. If I am not wrong 2020 is the year bitcoin halving will happen. Which means that miners will have a big cost on mining bitcoin, which would result in them not selling bitcoin under certain amounts, that might cause bitcoin to spike in price. Can't tell exact numbers because no one would but by 2020 bitcoin will be very bullish because of the halving.

There hasn't been one single halving where the price didn't go up significantly in the runup to the event, so by the time the halving kicks in the increased price should be sufficient enough for miners to at least get the same amount in fiat per minted block. Another helping factor is that the fee income will be much higher than it is right now, and they of course can sell their blocks for 25% over spot value without any problems. In other words, you don't have to worry about miners at all.

The only thing people have to worry about is to accumulate as many coins as possible before we're even remotely close to the halving date. :)

I think it will be the halving and mining difficulty that will kick in 2020 to make $100,000 possible. See these charts:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1076114455782658048

Bitcoin-Price-333k (https://themoneymongers.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Bitcoin-Price-333k.jpg)

It seems he guessed 2018 Bitcoin price quite precisely but will fail at 2019 price quite a bit.

Really impressed with your numbers and it is an optimal position we could achieve in the next couple of years and there is no doubt we will see a good rally but the only thing is we cannot identify the exact time of the rally, since we are at an disadvantage when it comes to data to have a detailed analyzes since the market is literally new and with the available data it is a good estimation and it might happen, either way i am expecting a huge rally in 2021 and i am sure we will achieve that.

This should be expectation vs reality like what always happened  which is opposite. Lol And mate your prediction is too much i think. Because it looks very high to reach especially on this kind of situation which market always experience drastic fluctuations after the sudden rise.

Lol. Anyone can make their own predictions however they want and with whatever motives they have. I haven't seen an accurate prediction with crypto though so i guess i just wouldn't mind people making radical expectations.

Interesting OP, i think you was close with bitcoin price on 1 March 2018 was 10.951,00$ and on 1 March 2019 was 3.859,58$, this was the close price at that time. Your prediction can be good and if there was not so much scam on crypto maybe your prediction was fulfill.

There is no doubt Bitcoin is getting more expensive year by year.

"By looking only at the yearly lowest dollar value you'll see that Bitcoin is always  more expensive in a given year than in the previous year. On average, its dollar value increases (at least) 325% p.a. on average (2010 - 2018)." Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TMygwWv4dc

If we continue to surpass the yearly low of the previous year we are always ready to go up!

Your prediction to 2019,2020 and 2021 is impossible to happen. Many people did not believe turn into one million dollras just like others prediction what more your prediction which is near at $4M. I predicted also what possible value of the bitcoin but it's not too high better to have also a limitation by predicting the price even it is free and predict only the reality price.

Look at it this way; come up with a rough approximation of the % of the world population who actually use bitcoin or own bitcoin for each year since 2010, and look at the price for each of those years. If you do some research I think you will see that the price is skyrocketing in relation to adoption, and even today very few people are still to get into it, low single digits I'm pretty sure.
Worrying about where the money willl come from is dumb. Applying any semblence of a linear correlation between price and influx of money is even dumber. Think harder, because you post like a noob.

I like your development figures but we should considered some factors too like the nations economy and infiltration rate in which will affect or will delayed the progress of your predictions. If the economy is in crisis and infiltration rate is high then expect any market movement will be affected too.

Your predictions are so wrong,I can't stop laughing. ;D
Bitcoin will never grow at such scale.You should be way more conservative.
I expect bitcoin to reach 20K USD at 2020,not half a million.

I think OP was too hyped up when he made those speculations. but at the same time I don't think $20k would take that long to be reached because as we move forward with the adoption it is becoming rather easier and also faster to rise as there would be more money flowing in due to increased adoption rate. that is why the adoption chart looks like an S curve with initial slow rate slowly rising until it reaches near vertical speed and plateau after reaching mass adoption.

I think that a $20.000 is a possible prediction, a $500k bitcoin seems unlikely, we would need to see a complete meltdown of the fiat system to see a $500k bitcoins in less than a year from now.

I think we will see bitcoins being traded above $20k before new year 2020