TheAlgorithm
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
|
|
March 09, 2017, 08:15:35 PM |
|
sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.
well, up to the point...your speculation is based on numerology:a belief that if you attach an exponent to current numbers, you can predict what happens in the future, so all numbers that you state are simply not possible (bacteria example just illustrates the point). actually its based on Moore's Law , that over a given period of time things ( price, uptake, the amount of transistors on a chip etc) double then you need to work out the doubling time.. Moore's law works well with tech items i'm not using numerology, i'm using good old fashioned mathamatics and at the end of the day , its just my speculation of where the price MAY be in 1, 2 and 3 years time ( which will change from my original post as i will adjust my pricing points as the months go by as i get more (historical) pricing data) Moore's law only applies to the transistors in a chip, and even then it's not 100% accurate. In other things it just won't always happen, especially when it's trying to reach the infinite with something that is inherently finite (money).
|
|
|
|
btc_zep (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 12
Merit: 0
|
|
March 09, 2017, 09:59:57 PM |
|
sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.
well, up to the point...your speculation is based on numerology:a belief that if you attach an exponent to current numbers, you can predict what happens in the future, so all numbers that you state are simply not possible (bacteria example just illustrates the point). actually its based on Moore's Law , that over a given period of time things ( price, uptake, the amount of transistors on a chip etc) double then you need to work out the doubling time.. Moore's law works well with tech items i'm not using numerology, i'm using good old fashioned mathamatics and at the end of the day , its just my speculation of where the price MAY be in 1, 2 and 3 years time ( which will change from my original post as i will adjust my pricing points as the months go by as i get more (historical) pricing data) Moore's law only applies to the transistors in a chip, and even then it's not 100% accurate. In other things it just won't always happen, especially when it's trying to reach the infinite with something that is inherently finite (money). i said it was BASED on Moore's law .. and Moore's law has been applied to many tech things, the doubling always happens, it's the time period that needs to be calculated for any given usage of the "law" also, i know it wont BE 100% accurate, THAT'S WHY ITS A PREDICTION and thats why i will modify it over time, as the months tick on by
|
|
|
|
TomPlatz
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
|
|
April 09, 2017, 05:36:09 AM |
|
Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited"). In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower. By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa. By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.
Well since Roger Ver and the band of miners really want BTU, the real users of Bitcoin will Sell their BTU and they can be left to mine to a full stop, leaving the real Bitcoin at the same value all through the never to happen sorry saga.
|
|
|
|
TomPlatz
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
|
|
April 09, 2017, 05:50:04 AM |
|
To achieve it Bitcoin needs more advertising and not just rely on ordinary people somehow accidentally discovering Bitcoin and hope they stay fixed enough to jump through the hoops in order to get some.
The software alone means only a certain number of people have the ability to set it up, it needs to be de-nerded quite a lot. Too much talk of past negative events and current squabbling.
I also think predictions have to stay in a holding pattern with the start line being shifted forward until this damn scaling debacle is sorted, without that being resolved, Bitcoin wont reach the stars.
Keep pushing for the resolution that is best in that regard, personally I think SegWit adds the smarts to produce development fever and this is your ticket, not so sure about leaving it as a larger dummy with BTU.
|
|
|
|
amirheavy666
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 228
Merit: 101
NEM (XEM) Top Coin
|
|
May 29, 2017, 11:32:23 AM |
|
I thini it's correct ear Month Open Max Min Close Average Month%Ch Total%Ch 2017 May 1353.00 2599.12 1341.22 2306.81 1900.04 70.50% 0.00% 2017 June 2306.81 2306.81 2078.74 2143.03 2208.85 -7.10% -7.10% 2017 July 2143.03 2364.05 2143.03 2295.19 2236.33 7.10% -0.50% 2017 August 2295.19 2366.22 2228.38 2297.30 2296.77 0.09% -0.41% 2017 September 2297.30 2534.22 2297.30 2460.41 2397.31 7.10% 6.66% 2017 October 2460.41 2705.51 2460.41 2626.71 2563.26 6.76% 13.87% 2017 November 2626.71 2897.61 2626.71 2813.21 2741.06 7.10% 21.95% 2017 December 2813.21 3084.94 2813.21 2995.09 2926.61 6.47% 29.84% 2018 January 2995.09 2995.09 2698.97 2782.44 2867.90 -7.10% 20.62% 2018 February 2782.44 2782.44 2521.44 2599.42 2671.44 -6.58% 12.68% 2018 March 2599.42 2867.50 2599.42 2783.98 2712.58 7.10% 20.69% 2018 April 2783.98 3071.09 2783.98 2981.64 2905.17 7.10% 29.25% 2018 May 2981.64 3289.14 2981.64 3193.34 3111.44 7.10% 38.43% 2018 June 3193.34 3193.34 2947.02 3038.17 3092.97 -4.86% 31.70% 2018 July 3038.17 3351.50 3038.17 3253.88 3170.43 7.10% 41.06% 2018 August 3253.88 3253.88 2932.16 3022.85 3115.69 -7.10% 31.04% 2018 September 3022.85 3334.59 3022.85 3237.47 3154.44 7.10% 40.34% 2018 October 3237.47 3571.35 3237.47 3467.33 3378.41 7.10% 50.31% 2018 November 3467.33 3824.92 3467.33 3713.51 3618.27 7.10% 60.98% 2018 December 3713.51 3924.58 3695.96 3810.27 3786.08 2.61% 65.17% 2019 January 3810.27 3810.27 3433.55 3539.74 3648.46 -7.10% 53.45% 2019 February 3539.74 3904.79 3539.74 3791.06 3693.83 7.10% 64.34% 2019 March 3791.06 4182.04 3791.06 4060.23 3956.10 7.10% 76.01% 2019 April 4060.23 4060.23 3813.87 3931.82 3966.54 -3.16% 70.44%
|
Nem.io
|
|
|
nodoze
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
|
|
July 15, 2017, 09:00:34 PM |
|
No way in hell, those prices are as if BTC is the only crypto. At the rate it's going now, there will be 10k different cryptocurrencies trading then.
|
|
|
|
DRaGoN RaNTaRo
|
|
July 15, 2017, 09:51:24 PM |
|
I do really think that there is something wrong with your prediction,by 2020 you are predicting that the price of one bitcoin would be half a million dollar,that is impossible and i am sure people wont purchase coins when the price crosses over $20000,unless you are a millionaire.
|
|
|
|
theflashakaberry
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
|
|
August 04, 2017, 06:12:01 PM |
|
Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited"). In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower. By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa. By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.
Your prediction were wrong BTC forked. I am from August 4, 2017 today is the day btc price $2,851 still holding it.
|
|
|
|
BitcoinGirl.Club
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2954
Merit: 2785
Bitcoingirl 2 joined us 💓
|
|
August 04, 2017, 07:21:04 PM |
|
OP has some good analysis but unfortunately the market is not driven by such calculations because this will highly depend on the usage and demand bitcoin keeps building over time
Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited"). In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower. By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa. By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.
Your prediction were wrong BTC forked. I am from August 4, 2017 today is the day btc price $2,851 still holding it. Yep prediction was off and bitcoin value is five times what was predicted
|
|
|
|
matale0
Member
Offline
Activity: 149
Merit: 10
|
|
November 27, 2017, 03:51:43 AM |
|
My long term price predictions are as follows:
Scenario 1
March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC
How I arrived at the above numbers........
July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)
and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00
Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months
The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled
I then took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 4.1 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and December 6th 2010)
-----------------------------------
Scenario 2
July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)
28th Feb 2017 bitcoin price was $1177
Time interval between both dates is 2418 days or 79.497 months
then i took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years, again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 5.473 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and Feb 28th 2017)
which gives the following price predictions
March 1st 2018 - $5,403 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2019 - $24,699 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2020 - $112,699 per 1 BTC
March 1st 2021 - $516,115 Per 1 BTC
Dec 17 10k$ both scenarios assume that the price doubling is constant going forward , and yes i know it wont actually happen like that , but it a good excersise to see how close i end up being to my original scenario 1 & 2 predictions
Thats how i worked out my predictions, i also took into account that a lot of technologies grow on an exponential curve, and i think that Bitcoin is one such "technology"
|
|
|
|
n0ne
|
|
November 27, 2017, 06:39:31 AM |
|
That's a good work mate. What you have done matching the price increase taking place with time and matching such scenarios looks good. In specific I would like to add that the effort made will surely help users who have been into bitcoin as well have plans to buy bitcoin for future profiting.
|
|
|
|
r.eristavi
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 2
Merit: 0
|
|
March 30, 2018, 07:09:39 PM |
|
Your predictions seem to be the most correct one according to the internet predictions.
Thank you for a good work.
|
|
|
|
Basmic
|
|
March 30, 2018, 07:21:01 PM |
|
Optimism is good, but I don't understand why you're optimistic. I do not see any reasoned reasons for the fall in prices now. I'm just seeing this fall. So I don't believe any predictions. It seems to me that the price of bitcoin is so unpredictable that you can expect any development of events. We must intuitively adopt a strategy and follow it clearly.
|
|
|
|
cryptoglia
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
|
|
April 07, 2018, 05:50:42 PM |
|
Just about right..... Waiting for 2019, looks like a tall order from where we stand now.
|
|
|
|
SixOfFive
|
|
June 25, 2018, 07:18:51 PM |
|
You expectations are too high. Bitcoin is not a magical thing which can reach such great heights by 2020 or 2021. No doubt Bitcoin has a great potential and enjoys the first-mover advantage. There are many factors which can prevent Bitcoin from reaching onto such heights like FUD, bans, manipulation, etc. but we can only hope that your expectations come true and we can earn great profts.
|
|
|
|
fabiorem
|
|
June 25, 2018, 07:28:38 PM |
|
Scenario 2 from OP seems to be working. He just didnt predict it was to happen in a bear market.
|
|
|
|
okala
|
|
June 25, 2018, 07:37:48 PM |
|
Many of us here wish this should be our reality and if bitcoin could move this way then we would all be rich. I have think that this price is very achievable though bitcoin is currently having some set back. I think investing into cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular should be what we can do now if we actually want to be rich in future.
|
|
|
|
akshayp
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 83
Merit: 0
|
|
July 31, 2018, 07:37:49 AM |
|
CoinDelite is your trusted source for live cryptocurrency price charts and real-time cryptocurrency price and trades. Get primetime access to real-time market data. Get in-depth pricing information on cryptocurrency exchanges and live cryptocurrency trades. Enjoy the latest information to buy Bitcoin, trade in digital currencies. Learn about Bitcoin exchanges and blockchain technology at a single convenient location. Get the latest update on live cryptocurrency price charts: https://coindelite.com/live-cryptocurrency-price-charts.php
|
|
|
|
|
batang_bitcoin
|
|
July 31, 2018, 08:21:32 AM |
|
Scenario 2 from OP seems to be working. He just didnt predict it was to happen in a bear market.
Yeah he's accurate with his prediction for the scenario but I like his scenario 1 for the next years prediction. You expectations are too high. Bitcoin is not a magical thing which can reach such great heights by 2020 or 2021. No doubt Bitcoin has a great potential and enjoys the first-mover advantage. There are many factors which can prevent Bitcoin from reaching onto such heights like FUD, bans, manipulation, etc. but we can only hope that your expectations come true and we can earn great profts.
It's high but he predicted on the scene 1 of how much bitcoin will be on March 1 2018 was close to the exact price of bitcoin.
|
|
|
|
|