Bitcoin Forum

Since everybody is so fond of this picture on downturns.

http://i36.tinypic.com/mukakg.png

We're at return to "normal"

Nah.  We are still at the "Innovators/techies try it stage."  The real growth is a long way off.

http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm

"bull trap"

If we blow past $250 this week, you'll be wrong.

lol. Seriously, when will people stop saying that.

Wow I haven't heard that one before... *yawn*

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

Well, we could be there or in the bull trap. To support that statement:

• we already had a first sell off at around $27 (or/and during the first 2011 bubble)
• we already had A LOT of media attention. Almost everybody know about BTC at this point.
• we already had A LOT of enthusiasm, greed, delusion and "new paradigm" screamed all over
• the bulls are now saying "return to normal, heading to the ATH"

And then:

• "smart money" come in at $5ish or earlier.
• "awareness" phase has passed (everybody knows about BTC now, we made headlines in ALL the main world newspapers - didn't you notice?)
• we really had a "mania phase", don't you think so?

[/list]

The angle of increase today at 155 suggests this is another small bubble. Each little pop leaves the price a little higher than it was a couple of days earlier.
When one of these small bubbles occurs at say 217 the pop could easily plunge the price a longer way down to 98. From there resumed gradual increase with the process repeating at 250, 300 350, 450, 650 etc.

Just speculation.

The true valuation based on fundamentals should be around $55.

now is this strictly based on number of bitcoin VS. difficulty to get?

If anything bad happens to Mt Gox the price will drop I agree, but just DDoS isn't going to work anymore we're past that stage now. So what's going to pop it now? I think the odds are definitely in favor of the price going up or consolidating around $200. Once new more professional exchanges come into business (and this will be pretty soon) then the real bull market starts taking off. :)

Based on cost to mine. If I can mine for $50 a coin, why should I buy for $150 coin? The convenience of buying isn't worth increasing the price by 200%.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

Demand, not convenience, dood.

We haven't seen the full effects of such widespread media attention yet, I don't believe. Buying into BTC isn't as simple as calling your broker for first timers. We've always got enthusiasm and greed.

The key to this for me was that I sold out at $60, waiting for the second dip to continue much lower to buy. It never came and I bought back in at $120 ouch; it was a single-dip selloff in the scheme of things. The price now is moving almost as fast as it was on the runup to $260; all that new money is starting to take its position and everyone's afraid of being left out.

Of course it's a short term bubble. It may or may not lead to an actual new paradigm, with the market so much in its infancy; some of that money must plan to stay; either way I'm (again) not bothering to swing trade for fear of being left behind. Buy and Hold up in this bitch.

Um what about your statement about gox? lol

DO you tout this when you are bullish?

I love how people on here flip flop each few days lol

I like you. That's how I played the 2008-2009 crash.

That said your position of having sold and waiting for a dip is showing rather clearly.

In bold something that is very true. Now let's see how the bubble burst has scared new investors, or convinced them that is a good point to "hop onto the train before it leaves the station"

Anyway, I'm sure this is going to be a bumpy ride.

Yes, very bumpy. So keep your eyes on the road!

https://i.imgur.com/81hHXzX.gif

I was talking with my manager today about Bitcoin. This is a man that trades commodity futures at 75-100x leverage. And he thinks I'm insane.

Only the most extremely high risk pools will be investing here yet, IMO.

Not too long ago, I saw how sure yourself you were about your predictions. Now that you're wrong, you're singing a totally different tune, it's unbecoming. If you really want to be a good trader, set your emotions aside and prepare for every contingency including the ones you don't want to happen. If you're betting on a $55 price anytime in the near future and nothing else...I'd suggest you find something else to do.

I agree. We need serious infrastucture for serious money to jump into BTC

Just a very few people has the balls to pump millions of $ to a Japanese company with a Polish bank account to buy a virtual currency that is traded in a very illiquid market. And I would bet that no corporation/hedge fund, etc. has the balls to do that ATM.

They aren't?

Bear Trap or Bull Trap, according to the graph we will eventually tank and hit ~30 USD again either way.  :)

Yes the holy graph that is our bitcoin bible and can only be used and interpreted in 100 billion ways to suit everyone's opinion. 

when people stop saying this:


we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.

I believe we're at the point denoted as, "Fuck the chart, this isn't a stock"

bahahahahaha NICE + ONE!!!

+1.

While I think the development of the past week is starting to prove the permabears ("We're going back to 20!!!") wrong, I'm now afraid we're *overshooting* the target again.

Moderation, people. Moderation.

I agree for right now, but I could see the fundamentals behind the price catching up over the next couple months if it doesn't overshoot too far.

The crash has not seemed to deter new merchants from accepting; if anything the rate has increased this week. There are also several new exchanges being worked on, and the ATMs are not far off.

Put a start point at about $2 two years ago. Put a second point on today's date at about $139.

Draw a simple line beginning at two years ago, including today's point, and extending several years into the future. Though only linear and an approximation, that rough line indicates the gradual incremental growth of BTC wrt USD now and in the near future. Up to 266 or down to 50.25 and everything in between is the result of day traders needing rises and falls to inspire trades where they can earn money.

The demand for BTC is still 50 times the supply. IMO that is one of the fundamental reasons BTC is appreciating along with a gradual increase of companies accepting BTC as payment.

In several years one BTC will be worth over 2,000 USD  using gradual incremental increase. That doesn't deny the possibility of spikes to 4,000 USD per coin in bubble(s).

Yes.

Exactly.

Press releases, hoarding, and, Mt Gox (who IMO does everything they can to 'cool down' any natural sell-off then blames it on dark forces because Bitcoin apparently never goes down unless there is a nefarious scheme), will produce bubble after bubble until people finally lose interest.

There is no normal. If any of you really love Bitcoin, you don't want it to go up like this day after day......

Nobody cares about bitcoins. People just want to make some profits (in usd).

I like mine in AUD! :)

All the local people contacting me to buy bitcoins seem to think differently.  And this is rural West Virginia, where 98% of people are still stuck 30 years in the past.  MtGox isn't that important.

That's even scarier and more consistent with a bubble.

nope.jpg

institutional investors have not even touched BTC nor would they at this point

this may be true, but if so the time scale is quite large and so there is a large risk of the model breaking down due to complications (rise of another crypto, federal action, protocol exploit). if anything perturbs the bitcoin ecosystem, it will not look like this. if infrastructure scales properly and everything else goes right, this could be the decade-view.

With argentina and china people rushing to BTC, (Hyperinflation in Argentina, Q-Coin person to person trading stopped by chineese govt, and soon after, Chineese every-day folks discovering BTC..

EUR not fixed at all, then europe still going BTC at faster rate..

Soon american will understand that, in fact, they are (economicaly speaking) much more fucked up than Europe, and will ruch the remains to BTC too. 

TradeHill and CoinLab+Silicon Valey Bank giving acess to BIG Pocket to invest in BTC via funds..

MtGox fiat money inputs (In-Out) constantly growing (+14M U$ / day),

Volume of exchanges that are well over year moving average,
MtGox's volume share begins to split among competition.

Mass media attention that BTC got last weeks, now more than 1% world population are aware of BTC and start acting accordingly.

Many things comming up, Western Union/MoneyGram, PayPal, others.. 

Watch out for BTC priced at more than 1k U$ before 12 month from now..


Put you money where your mouth is, like me !
Agree or not, bet on the statement in my signature !

Aren't every day chinese people still discovering production lines and agriculture?

Nice Sig Rampion :
The block size is an intentionally limited economic resource, just like the 21,000,000-bitcoin limit. Changing that vastly degrades the economics surrounding bitcoin, creating many negative incentives. Jeff Garzik
I tend to agree with this Garzik quote..  Very toughtfull !

The reason I'm afraid to buy back right now and not on a dip is how overwhelmingly positive and optimistic everyone is at the moment.

Clearly this cannot be a good sign.

I mean that Chineese tends to be gamblers, and gamers, they have more guts than most other culture, and they are very intensive at what they do.. After all, from wich country came the fisrt commercially availlable ASIC miner.. They are very efficient at what they do, diligent worker and passionate poeples.. and now, they seem to have a growing interest about BTC... Watch out :)

You must not be reading the same forum as I, there's plenty of naysayers. Mostly of the "I WANT TO BUY LOWER" variety.

I know, that was a cheap racist laugh coming from an Aussie with chinamen as far as the eye can see. Good on the Chinese if they get into it.

Then why are they still looking to buy after it "popped"?

To be fair, I do live near WVU and a few other schools, so my 98% estimation is probably a bit high for this particular region.  It is more representative of the area I lived in during high school.

I've always been positive, since my first trade (BTC for Fiat) when they traded at 0.15$/BTC.. I've bought and sold a lot since then, never regrets a transaction, alway been positive..

The history tends/seems to always repeat itself..

Indeed, the rate of echange can fall, maybe in the 2 digits, but BTC are quite unusual, by it nature, nothing comares, so I've bet on the rise, and I'm just looking for more opportunity to get more involved, asap !

Really? I'm not sure. Everyone seems to be saying it's going to rise and be wonderful... but I've never trusted the masses... maybe it's just my latent narcissism speaking, but I feel like this would be the perfect moment to deal a crippling blow to bitcoin.

Ah. Maybe I'll just take a break and see how things pan out over the course of a week. I'm pretty new to this so the more I can learn the better. I'm not exactly rolling in dough either so it's not like I'll miss out on much.

I know where you are coming from. The thing to keep in mind is that we are not the masses. We are currently the tiny minority. You and I (and many others on this forum) are grouped together due to like-mindedness so that gives the impression of being in the masses. The masses bought facebook stock. The masses are not yet buying bitcoin.

I actually agree with the sentiments of the more seasoned investors, traders, buyers and sellers here, but I have a problem you see.

I am poor.

Because I am new to this I've missed every dip and smart decision that would have multiplied me some hefty (at least for me) gains. I don't want to make the same mistake again so soon. So I'm just going to see how the current market trend pans out over the next week or so.

Dollar cost average.

Every pay check put $X into bitcoin.  You will buy more when it is cheaper and less when it is more expensive, giving you a good average price.  Since most fees are percentage based and not flat fees, it doesn't make a difference if X is $1000 or $5..

Hm. I see. I was mostly referring to the "majority" of people buying and selling bitcoin. I do not believe it is likely or possible that most of the poeple on this forum are making gains and feel like at least half are taking losses. Even though I made a bunch of mistakes I still came out with tiny gains but learned a lot of tough lessons.

If people are greedy and not afraid than it makes me afraid.

I mean... all it's going to take is one major unexpected technical error or great even to send the value of bitcoin plummeting to oblivion.

I mean logically, bitcoin just reached it's highest peak and crash ever. If another large blow were dealt to bitcoin so soon... its possible we may hit rock bottem for a time.

Long term I'm sure things will skyrocket, but right now I just can't help but wonder.

Thank you for the advice. That makes a lot of sense and I hadn't even considered it. In fact that is a beautiful strategy. I thank you for your insight.

Now all I need is a job! All hail America! All hail inflation and unsustainable trillions in debt that seems to be rising after some of the worst financial decisions in U.S. history created monstrous financial corporations into supreme power furthering the degradation of capitalism and death of the American dream!

Ah... I miss work.... working 7 days a week.... making less than a part time worker.... what a beautiful world.  :D

Employment has been higher than average the past few years here in West Virginia and there are plenty of companies looking for workers.  Sure, you have to give up living on top of your neighbors, but there is work available in America.

Yeah. When 0.5% of the world is in, the early adopter phase has ended, and there is a mathematical chance of it being a bubble, given that it is a technology which in all likelihood is beneficial to most, such as the Internet, email, mobile phones and Facebook.

In 1999, 0.5% of the world were Internet literate. The "new paradigm" had arrived. There was a huge bubble on valuations of the internet companies, since people were pumping the money in, ahead of the usefulness curve. A mobile operator was trading at $20,000+ per customer. It was delusional, since you cannot extract that much lifetime value out of a customer in perfect competition or even close to perfect competition. To achieve 10% APR, you would have to make $166 per month profit per customer, which you obviously don't, and never will - I am the top absolute heavy user of mobiles, and I hardly pay that much to them in revenue, corporationwide. $10-$20 revenue per month is the norm.

The bubble crashed and the technology stayed, was developed, and has calmly and bloodlessly revolutionized the world.

Bitcoin at $156 per mBTC, as there is 3mBTC per person in the world, actually more like 1mBTC, since many of the coins are yet to be generated (10MBTC), a good number is lost (~0.5MBTC), and I don't think Satoshi will spend his backbone miner position (1MBTC).

Most bitcoin holders that I know, keep, or plan to keep 80% in paper wallets (6.5MBTC out of 8MBTC). Some (1.5MBTC) play with their stash, though, but these generally lose bitcoins over time, and are replaced by others. It is a giant casino, where nearly everyone wins on fiat and loses on bitcoins, (hope thay have fun).

The active traded stock of bitcoins, 3MBTC, is in accordance with the analysis. Half of it belongs to the trading positions of the long-term holders, and they can increase their stash at several pips per hour. Bitcoin price in the last 8 days has risen 50 pips (0.5%) per hour.

The highest "tear speed", which I define as "increase in Bitcoin market cap"/"net investment demand" can be measured at about 10. Expect "bitcoin shortages" to resume, so that there is no meaningful sell side in the exchanges. "Physical"/OTC premium did skyrocket to 25% in early April, it will go back, and higher.

In my short 7 years career as a silver dealer, physical silver was maximum at about +150% compared to spot. Even now it is about 30-50% over.

I am selling Casascius at 1.50 per BTC1, 6 per BTC5, and I am planning to increase the premium. 3 weeks ago I cleared the Casascius supply of the leading Finnish merchant, because of their terms allowed me to buy the casascius' at 3% over melt, and pay with fiat at the close of the second bank day following (T+2). So, I bought like Saturday morning, paid on Tuesday evening, and made 20% in fiat/BTC rate appreciation, instead of losing the same amount by trying to make my money clear in the exchange.

This kind of madness cannot go on for much longer. The ones making money (like I have sporadically done), are making too much of it, and it is pressuring the supply side of bitcoins.

When I was mentioning the "event horizon" yesterday, it is the point of no return, and we are in it right now. NOW bitcoin is the most undervalued during its history, since the wisest brains in the world cannot think of a scenario, that it would not go to $millions in the bubble pop. Therefore they buy in, in the most epic forward escape that the world has seen so far. Since there is still a 100,000% gain available, and the risk has dropped to virtually zero, all the money in the world tries to enter into bitcoins, and the endgame can be rather quick.

Your wallet is safe. If someone understands and accepts what is written above, he can just buy bitcoins and be rich in a few weeks. If he doesn't, he is not interested or capable in stealing your wallet anyway.

I expected blood in the streets and shortages of food when the fiat economy ends. But we did not see either, when Internet, email, and Facebook proliferated. Perhaps I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling, and even be able to choose the brand, in relative comfort, despite the fact that I own more money than I ever can realistically dole out.

I can make BTC10 or more, every phone call I take, since people want to buy bitcoins with their fiat, gold, silver, cars and whatever they have, and I can just select what I need.

You can call me if you want, my number is +358-50-3235950. You can talk to me for BTC10 per hour, prepaid. Granted, it is much fiat, but why would you care. You mined your blocks solo, and now you can talk to me 5 hours for the price of one. Realistically, if more than 3 people call me per day, I will need to increase the price due to scarcity of my time available, and the fact that I spend most of my day internet trolling anyway and don't have too much interest in making money anymore ;D

Because that's what Bitcoin does too :P

I suppose. I'm actually in limbo right now and will be moving soon. I'll be able to find work where I'm going... hopefully. See, I'm not the average sap so I understand exactly why and how my country has fallen to shambles due to the perverted corruptions of humanity.

Growing up my only ambition was to make the world a better place and to help people. I'm one of "those" fools. Heh, heh....

We spend our lives chasing money in order to survive. We trade our lifespans for it. We take on debt and trade the future as insurance. There is no such thing as a land of freedom. Freedom must be bought. life must be bought. Everything has a price. Anything, can be bought.

It seems like we cannot even earn the fruits of our labors. Parasites are taking as much bounty as they can, sucking everyone die.

My own survival relies on my own twisted sense of happiness and narcissism. Even now I am bubbly with joy. Death, failure, all of these things are do not matter. I have faced them before and will face them again. I see a lot of things. Deep down I know I was born to be a king... ha. But people like me, pfft. We aren't meant to succeed. In real life the bad guys always win.

I've gone off on a soliloquy, back to bitcoin. I'm sure it's too early to tell. I'm sure its going to rise, and I'm sure its going to fall. I'm sure a technical attack could send things all over the place at any moment. I'm sure the market could naturally go anywhere.

I'm learning as much as I can at the moment. I'm enthralled by bitcoin out of genuine affection. I see it's value. Compared to the currencies of natures today it is a tantalizing entity.

Believe me, I know the weight of debt, but bitcoin has helped me to pay it down.  I absolutely agree about parasites in the dollar economy, but there are other options and staying with dollars is a choice.  Other things might be harder to trade with, but you can't feed the leeches.  Luckily, bitcoin makes traditional fiat money transfer options look cumbersome.  It only faces the problem of adoption, which can only be solved by time.

Wow - a lot of posts while I was away.

Anyway, as far as the majority that are trading I don't see how it's any different from any other market/business. I could name the founder of any successful company vs. Joe Six-pack as examples. The savvy/motivated will likely do the best and the suckers/sloths will just eek by or lose. If one knows he isn't savvy enough and still knows that he doesn't want to be a sucker, then he treads carefully in the market and probably won't make very big gains but will also just eek by or hopefully not lose very much if he makes a miscalculation.

I also look at the greed and fear of day trading kind of like a drunken boozefest. Some people are gonna get laid, some are gonna just hang out and chit-chat, some are gonna get beat up, some are gonna have hangovers. After the weekend is over it's back to work and progress as usual with the normal hills and valleys that come in between. Sure, we could die in a car accident on the way to work, but that's life. Nothing is certain.

In the long term, progress will be made and humans will evolve into the borg in the eventual singularity. Then Bitcoins probably won't matter at all.

Indeed. I would like to see bitcoin succeed. The power of a currency with a limited supply is ingenious. The dollar which is an infinite currency, well; we can all see what it has done. Endless inflation and government deficits. Bitcoin is insanely innovative.

I am definitely in this for the long run. Hopefully I'll be in this for years. I would love to be a part of this potential emerging future.

Ha ha ha. Assuming we make it that far. I for one wouldn't mind seeing our species fall apart see that our species faces a lot of challenges.

Indeed, bitcoin may die in the future, and will have merely paved the way for the rise of virtual currency, but who knows really.

This is all just a game really. No one wants to be the losers. But unlike gambling, this is one game you can use your brain to influence the odds with. This coupled with persistence and motivation, well, that may make all the difference.

TBH I hope we don't make it that far. At least not in my lifetime. It freaks me out to think that I could ever become connected to someone like this. (http://youtu.be/zrIDHNqUTPM)

I suggest you go there....they on the verge of  makeing the west look like the third world. Eg. the US has nothing to compare to the high speed rail network recently built in CNY.

The scale the are operating on is of a different magnitude to the west / us at the moment

A lot of people don't get that its a displacement event....no "money" or value has to be made by BTC/CC's it just has to displace what paper fiat is representing.