Bitcoin Forum

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/20130426-10-day-log-chart.png?w=650

Its looking more and more like we are back on the uptrend. Me thinks no crash, bull mode on.

I'm a bull, but I think that support line is pretty baseless.

I agree, thats why i put the word 'hope' in there. It does look like a nice bounce has happened off it though.

Thanks for a hype-free post with some analysis to back it up.

I don't put too much store in short-term TA though in the mid to long term it is generally useful.

BTC at the moment seems to be all about gut-feeling and short-term profits - and there isn't anything wrong with that.

I just hope for their sake that a lot of the perma-bulls around here don't get caught out on what I see as an eventual though perhaps slow rise.

The fundamentals are looking better every day.

some constructive criticism:

this channel isn't very good. at least you have two points, but you need more for a 'robust' line. the reason for this being that a line needs only two points to be defined. that means, there will exist an arbitrary line across any two 'peaks' or 'dips'. in your picture, this is exactly what you've done.

for more robust lines, look closely. try to find a line that has three points of contact or more.

hope this helped :)

--arepo

Hehehe I can see why you think my line isn't really valid based on the chart I shared here, (click the link in my sig if you want my full analysis :) ) On a three month chart that top line has at least 5 points of contact. Three as support and now 2 as resistance the last two which you can see above. The lower line is one I hoped would be validated (and looks like it is being.)

got the fuller picture -- very good analysis, my apologies. very cool how supports become resistances. if you'd like, i've come to similar conclusions about the trend by identifying patterns in the RSI, and William's %R oscillators, you could take a look at my "arepo's" analysis thread.

I'll check out your thread, I'm always interested when I see similar conclusions based on different types of analysis

actually, i now realize that i didn't post it explicitly in the thread, as the original diagram was part of the price report, so my subscribers had a copy.

it looks something like this:

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:

http://s17.postimg.org/qohnfyz9r/RSI_0619.png

-===-

there is clearly some error in the data points (the trendline underestimates the actual support), but that bounce is indicative of finding support along a lower trend.

--arepo

Thanks for that chart arepo :) RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

Going to have to go, supposed to be working!  ::) Will leave this thread to do what it will.

yeah, we took a hit but i think we're okay, mid-term.

for some fundamentals, i attribute it to a number of factors, from a growing utility to a growing userbase and increased mainstream exposure.

thanks for checking out my work :) it is very cool when you can come to the same conclusion via different techniques-- it's almost as if TA refers to functional, scientific methods. ::)

--arepo

I have no idea about TA, but my gut feeling is the following: if we break under $120, next bounce will be at $85ish

And I have the sensation that we will enter in mid-term bear market. Bottom will not be so low as per 2011, and the recovery won't be so slow, because the fundamentals are stronger and the media attention is still positive.

i can agree with you generally. this is a critical moment. recovery from $120 will be short-term bullish, break under $120 will be short-term bearish.

in the meantime, i found another oscillator with an even more precise trendline.

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:

http://s4.postimg.org/wtudvuyct/ultimate.png

-===-

lookin good so far...

--arepo

edit: just noticed that random line on the price graph.. you can safely ignore that. i clearly need some sleep after many, many hours of daytrading :D

This is the first TA that actually sounds and looks plausible to me...good work. :)


https://i.imgur.com/oVA0mkg.jpg

This would mean a growth of ~13% per week. It won't be allowed to go under 130 by tommorow.

you've got it! ;)

that's the trendline we just caught. it's not rocket science haha

Haha yes I know ;) I just wanted to validate it yet again using Bitcoinity. It's nice to see I can learn something from you guys. Thanks for your work!

so becouse their are three points which show a matching under spike, that is considered the trend line
ahhahahahahahahha

i could show you a trend line which proves that bitcoins worth 50 dollars
that graph means nothing !

show me. 3 points makes a robust trendline...

My take on this is that it's important for btc to remain above 130 over the weekend so we can continue seeing stability into next week.

[crickets]

Heres an update to that first chart

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/20130427-10-day-log-chart.png?w=650

We did find support, now testing that line again

the OP found atheletic support with a rubber band and a peanut shell

haha

- Graph of BTC price - check
- Ruler - check
- Colored marker - check
- Evidence based statements.....I'll get back to that one...

Not a science more of an art I'd say.

Looks like support on that trendline isn't holding this time, can't be bothered drawing in the lines though. Thin volume, but on the market depth looks like price won't drop too much.

we're in a period of consolidation, and it's the weekend. last weekend broke a short-term trendline, too, but price simply consolidated around the $120 level until a significant breakout up.

what it is important for the bull picture is that we bounced off of the trendline on the way down, and also that we see a breakout up out of this triangle:

http://s8.postimg.org/p29mdsdad/triangle.png

--arepo