Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 01:28:11 PM



Title: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 01:28:11 PM
Looks like a DDOS'ers have successfully taking down Silk Road for over 24 hours now.  Will be interesting to see how they deal with this and if it has any effect on the price.  Since I doubt price movement of BTC has anything to do with buying and selling of goods it shouldn't.  I think BTC will follow the gold bubble.  Continue to go up based on pure speculation and bull ego and then a big avalanche back down again.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: solidshotnosh on April 29, 2013, 01:35:01 PM
Who do you think keeps attacking these sites?

I mean DDOS is just kind of pointless unless you simply don't want a site operating right?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 01:41:52 PM
It could be anyone.  I doubt it is a government since they are such a low volume business compared to Mexico or most any other import nation.  I doubt it is extortion since paying them does not guarantee they stop, there is no way to verify you are paying the person doing it, and it will only encourage others.  I would speculate it is either 1.) A group of kids being vandals because they can and very little risk of law enforcement caring.   OR 2.) People trying to move the price of BTC for their own personal gain.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: wordofmouth on April 29, 2013, 01:54:33 PM
competition anyone?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: chriswen on April 29, 2013, 01:56:18 PM
Wow, it's actually very hard to DDOS silk road.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 02:00:37 PM
Competition is possible although there are no real bigtime competitors I know of.

Some say the TOR network is hard to DDOS but, I suspect this theory doesn't hold up as well as people believe.  The main issue is that most traffic routing via TOR to Silk road goes through low bandwidth channels.  If you have a huge number of hosts to flood a site it wouldn't be that hard to flood a bunch of low traffic channels.  This is just my understanding  I have never looked at the topology of TOR so I could be wrong.

One reason I think it could be more to do with BTC is that a large number of people keep BTC in Silk Road accounts.  If the site is down they can not use their BTC.  This wouldn't help competition in the short term since vendors couldn't cash out and go somewhere else.  Could be a long term competitive FUD strategy.  It does however lower volume on MtFUX though since people can't get to accounts.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 02:35:39 PM
One reason people think TOR is hard to DDOS is because it does not allow UDP.  Most DDOS is UDP based and TOR only allows TCP.  Still this does not make TOR impossible to DDOS it just means you need to flood a lot of nodes with TCP protocol.  I'd imagine using a lot of zombie PC with TOR clients one could map out TOR nodes and develop a fairly simple plan to flood enough nodes to make TOR fairly unusable.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: dg2010 on April 29, 2013, 02:45:11 PM
One reason people think TOR is hard to DDOS is because it does not allow UDP.  Most DDOS is UDP based and TOR only allows TCP.  Still this does not make TOR impossible to DDOS it just means you need to flood a lot of nodes with TCP protocol.  I'd imagine using a lot of zombie PC with TOR clients one could map out TOR nodes and develop a fairly simple plan to flood enough nodes to make TOR fairly unusable.

Given how the TOR network operates and the bandwidth constraints, I imagine it's easier to take a site down in terms of traffic required. But harder to do, given that you need your zombies to connect to the Tor network first.



Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 03:22:33 PM
One reason people think TOR is hard to DDOS is because it does not allow UDP.  Most DDOS is UDP based and TOR only allows TCP.  Still this does not make TOR impossible to DDOS it just means you need to flood a lot of nodes with TCP protocol.  I'd imagine using a lot of zombie PC with TOR clients one could map out TOR nodes and develop a fairly simple plan to flood enough nodes to make TOR fairly unusable.

Given how the TOR network operates and the bandwidth constraints, I imagine it's easier to take a site down in terms of traffic required. But harder to do, given that you need your zombies to connect to the Tor network first.



Anyone know the total bandwidth of all TOR nodes?  I know the Spamhaus attack was 300Gbps.  I'd be surprised if all TOR nodes combined had anywhere near that capacity.  This attack seems to be affecting a lot of TOR sites I've been trying to use.  Far slower than normal.  I suspect someone is just flooding .onion sites with requests.  I have to be overlooking something.  This seems so trivial a way to take TOR down for anyone with a sizable botnet.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 03:27:26 PM
So after more research Silk Road has two larger competitors BMR and Atlantis.  Atlantis seems to be having issues and is somewhat usable.  Mixed reports on BMR being slow for some usable for others.  Also seen people doing TCPDumps on successful Silk Road connections and getting garbage spewed back at them.  Seem like more than just a DDOS.  The nodes are returning malformed data.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: BitSmile on April 29, 2013, 03:35:45 PM
I think it's just zombie pcs "refreshing". I read somewhere that the thing that supposedly would make DDOS agains the Tor network has not been implemented, because it would require a fair amount of resources. With a sizeable botnet, the zombies could just send legitimate requests over and over, making sites like silk road and such, with stone age servers, be almost unusable.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 03:51:28 PM
One reason people think TOR is hard to DDOS is because it does not allow UDP.  Most DDOS is UDP based and TOR only allows TCP.  Still this does not make TOR impossible to DDOS it just means you need to flood a lot of nodes with TCP protocol.  I'd imagine using a lot of zombie PC with TOR clients one could map out TOR nodes and develop a fairly simple plan to flood enough nodes to make TOR fairly unusable.

Given how the TOR network operates and the bandwidth constraints, I imagine it's easier to take a site down in terms of traffic required. But harder to do, given that you need your zombies to connect to the Tor network first.



I don't think it would be hard to write or update a botnet that had the tor bundle implemented to connect.  Also there are .to sites that proxy to the TOR without the need for the network stuff to be enabled.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: SaintFlow on April 29, 2013, 05:48:13 PM
If i where this new atlantis place, this is what i would spend my money on  ;D

Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: notme on April 29, 2013, 06:08:51 PM
I think it's just zombie pcs "refreshing". I read somewhere that the thing that supposedly would make DDOS agains the Tor network has not been implemented, because it would require a fair amount of resources. With a sizeable botnet, the zombies could just send legitimate requests over and over, making sites like silk road and such, with stone age servers, be almost unusable.

1. I doubt Silk Road is running on "stone age servers".
2. The speed of the server has pretty much nothing to do with DDOS resistance.  DDOS is accomplished by saturating the network connection, not attempting to overload a machine that is simply piping data from disk to the network port.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: UltimateReaper on April 29, 2013, 06:22:22 PM
Poor Silk Road. I really like that place.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 29, 2013, 06:26:40 PM
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?

The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database.  In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd.  When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency.  Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot.  Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent.  Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Templeton on April 30, 2013, 05:50:54 AM
It's still down...  Hope my BTC are safe  :P


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: dave111223 on April 30, 2013, 07:19:12 AM
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?

The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database.  In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd.  When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency.  Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot.  Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent.  Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.

But couldn't all the mirrors be run from the same source?  Because the DDoSers would just be targeting the website distribution in general, as opposed to targeting the specific source computer (if they could locate/target the source server then what would be the point of Tor)

So couldn't the dread pirate roberts just run 100 instances of Tor on the same server all with different tor addresses, but still serving up the same data from the same database?

But then again I have a really limited knowledge of Tor so this could be completely wrong.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: afbitcoins on April 30, 2013, 11:24:42 AM
How longs it been down for now ?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: massivebitman on April 30, 2013, 11:44:28 AM
Price will go up if  SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: kriwest on April 30, 2013, 12:11:36 PM
"UPDATE (04/30/2013 0035 UTC): We have come a long way in the battle, but still do not have the upper hand. It's looking more and more like a restructuring of the tor software or even the tor network will be required to mitigate the kind of attack we are under. If this can be solved by modifying the tor client software running the silk road .onion, then it will be a matter of patching and redeploying the hidden service. If it is a network issue, it will require the cooperation of the Tor developers, or running a new network of nodes. I haven't given up hope for a faster solution, but if one can not be found, then we will move to a semi private scheme where users will be given access through many private URLs. I'll keep everyone updated on how we will move forward, but please be prepared for a few more days at the least of no access."


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: BitcoinAshley on April 30, 2013, 12:22:54 PM
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?

... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?

And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.

So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments

 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: massivebitman on April 30, 2013, 12:37:39 PM
Silk Road really can't have much to do with the price of bitcoin right now. People who are inflating the price aren't the users of that site. Money in should roughly equal money out on SR. The site shouldn't affect the big players, do you really think investors are putting 100k in bitcoin because they think the druggies are going to drive up the price? Quite the opposite in fact. Bitcoin being used for illicit activities is a risk for the big investor.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: julius on April 30, 2013, 12:47:47 PM
So after more research Silk Road has two larger competitors BMR and Atlantis. 

Do these competitors use Bitcoin as well ?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Chuck Finley on April 30, 2013, 12:57:39 PM
2. The speed of the server has pretty much nothing to do with DDOS resistance.  DDOS is accomplished by saturating the network connection, not attempting to overload a machine that is simply piping data from disk to the network port.


That's incorrect.

While saturating a network connection is ONE way of causing a denial of service, overloading the target machine(s) so that they can't respond to requests even if the connection isn't saturated would also count as a DOS attack. As long as someone is intentionally trying to cause a network resource to become unavailable it's a DOS attack regardless of the means through which they cause that service denial. (If they're using a zombie botnet or some such then it's a DDOS).



Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Templeton on April 30, 2013, 03:01:23 PM
"UPDATE (04/30/2013 0035 UTC): We have come a long way in the battle, but still do not have the upper hand. It's looking more and more like a restructuring of the tor software or even the tor network will be required to mitigate the kind of attack we are under. If this can be solved by modifying the tor client software running the silk road .onion, then it will be a matter of patching and redeploying the hidden service. If it is a network issue, it will require the cooperation of the Tor developers, or running a new network of nodes. I haven't given up hope for a faster solution, but if one can not be found, then we will move to a semi private scheme where users will be given access through many private URLs. I'll keep everyone updated on how we will move forward, but please be prepared for a few more days at the least of no access."

where is that from?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: dandirk on April 30, 2013, 03:29:05 PM
"UPDATE (04/30/2013 0035 UTC): We have come a long way in the battle, but still do not have the upper hand. It's looking more and more like a restructuring of the tor software or even the tor network will be required to mitigate the kind of attack we are under. If this can be solved by modifying the tor client software running the silk road .onion, then it will be a matter of patching and redeploying the hidden service. If it is a network issue, it will require the cooperation of the Tor developers, or running a new network of nodes. I haven't given up hope for a faster solution, but if one can not be found, then we will move to a semi private scheme where users will be given access through many private URLs. I'll keep everyone updated on how we will move forward, but please be prepared for a few more days at the least of no access."

where is that from?

The owner of SR, Dread Pirate Roberts on the SR forums which was running last night at least and seems to be a lesser target.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: drawingthesun on April 30, 2013, 03:46:46 PM
So after more research Silk Road has two larger competitors BMR and Atlantis. 

Do these competitors use Bitcoin as well ?

Atlantis was Litecoin only last time I heard. Looks like selling my Litecoins was a massive mistake! :(


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: mccorvic on April 30, 2013, 03:57:57 PM
So after more research Silk Road has two larger competitors BMR and Atlantis. 

Do these competitors use Bitcoin as well ?

Atlantis was Litecoin only last time I heard. Looks like selling my Litecoins was a massive mistake! :(

Nope, best thing you ever did.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: glendall on April 30, 2013, 04:00:35 PM
Must be one heck of a whoozy DDOS to take out SR for this long.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 30, 2013, 04:20:31 PM
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?

... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?

And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.

So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments

 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)  


Ashley, don't be silly, I've been telling you forever the price is solely based on speculation and not usage or adoption.  Right now my best guess is it is being used as a temporary cash store in hopes of good news later on.  There is nothing surprising here at all.

Also Silk Road has had on and off issues for a long while so it will take more than 3 days to lose confidence.  If MtFUX didn't bring BTC down to double digits that shows the irrational exuberance is still at an all time high.  I've predicted a slowly downward trend for a long time although a panic sell based on possible news scenarios wouldn't shock me.  Once Silk Road comes back who knows another irrational bubble as I first was thinking.  I figured it would be up by today though.

EDIT - Also those with BTC in silk road can't panic sell currently their Bitcoins are gone unless the site comes back.

I don't want to spread FUD (just trying to use logic) but the longer Silk Road is down the more I worry a big cash out when funds do become available.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on April 30, 2013, 04:24:39 PM
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?

The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database.  In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd.  When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency.  Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot.  Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent.  Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.

But couldn't all the mirrors be run from the same source?  Because the DDoSers would just be targeting the website distribution in general, as opposed to targeting the specific source computer (if they could locate/target the source server then what would be the point of Tor)

So couldn't the dread pirate roberts just run 100 instances of Tor on the same server all with different tor addresses, but still serving up the same data from the same database?

But then again I have a really limited knowledge of Tor so this could be completely wrong.

What you are missing is that the mirrors are what we call the front ends.  That allow the interface to do transactions on the database or backend.  If the front ends are being DDOS'd this causes latency to the backend database (think of two people purchasing the same product 5 minutes apart on two different front ends) and the transactions get all out of whack.  It makes semi-real time trading almost impossible.  The only solution I could see would be to make all trading heavily delayed to mitigate the latency.

I don't architect trading sites based on BTC so I'm not sure if delayed trading could work.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: thebaron on April 30, 2013, 04:31:54 PM
Price will go up if  SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.

No dumb drug dealers cashing in by putting in market orders causing selloffs. That's one of my theories, anyways.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: bitcon on April 30, 2013, 06:28:37 PM
Price will go up if  SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.

No dumb drug dealers cashing in by putting in market orders causing selloffs. That's one of my theories, anyways.


site is down. no coins moving anywhere.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: iCEBREAKER on April 30, 2013, 06:47:18 PM
Atlantis was Litecoin only last time I heard. Looks like selling my Litecoins was a massive mistake! :(

Tell me about it.  At least there's a chance the ounces of silver I paid thousands of LTC for will regain parity, someday.   :'(

Atlantis accepts BTC and LTC.  Source: some guy on reddit.

Proposal: Split Silkroad by category into several .onion sites.  One for stoners, one for ravers, one for tweakers, etc. 

Give the adversary multiple targets to attack, diffusing their (hopefully limited) resources.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: meangreen on April 30, 2013, 09:44:38 PM
Price will go up if  SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.

you are kidding right?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: notme on April 30, 2013, 09:59:53 PM
2. The speed of the server has pretty much nothing to do with DDOS resistance.  DDOS is accomplished by saturating the network connection, not attempting to overload a machine that is simply piping data from disk to the network port.


That's incorrect.

While saturating a network connection is ONE way of causing a denial of service, overloading the target machine(s) so that they can't respond to requests even if the connection isn't saturated would also count as a DOS attack. As long as someone is intentionally trying to cause a network resource to become unavailable it's a DOS attack regardless of the means through which they cause that service denial. (If they're using a zombie botnet or some such then it's a DDOS).



Sure, that's not the only method.  But saturating the link is the vastly most common method used in practice and so unless a solution addresses that, it isn't a solution.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: notme on April 30, 2013, 10:01:44 PM
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?

The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database.  In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd.  When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency.  Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot.  Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent.  Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.

But couldn't all the mirrors be run from the same source?  Because the DDoSers would just be targeting the website distribution in general, as opposed to targeting the specific source computer (if they could locate/target the source server then what would be the point of Tor)

So couldn't the dread pirate roberts just run 100 instances of Tor on the same server all with different tor addresses, but still serving up the same data from the same database?

But then again I have a really limited knowledge of Tor so this could be completely wrong.

No.  You failed to address network link saturation which is the most common mode of accomplishing denial of service.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: meangreen on May 01, 2013, 01:24:30 AM
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?

... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?

And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.

So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments

 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 


Ash, alot but not all of the people on the silk road have either gone to atlantis or black market reloaded to get their drugs now. the silk road is the major player but even though its down right now people that want their drugs will still carry on they arent going to sop all of a sudden so what you are seeing now is still people buying for their drugs, but you are correct there are no manipulators because there is no volume.. and please dont call ne a schizo


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: meangreen on May 01, 2013, 01:30:11 AM
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?

... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?

And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.

So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments

 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)  


Ashley, don't be silly, I've been telling you forever the price is solely based on speculation and not usage or adoption.  Right now my best guess is it is being used as a temporary cash store in hopes of good news later on.  There is nothing surprising here at all.

Also Silk Road has had on and off issues for a long while so it will take more than 3 days to lose confidence.  If MtFUX didn't bring BTC down to double digits that shows the irrational exuberance is still at an all time high.  I've predicted a slowly downward trend for a long time although a panic sell based on possible news scenarios wouldn't shock me.  Once Silk Road comes back who knows another irrational bubble as I first was thinking.  I figured it would be up by today though.

EDIT - Also those with BTC in silk road can't panic sell currently their Bitcoins are gone unless the site comes back.

I don't want to spread FUD (just trying to use logic) but the longer Silk Road is down the more I worry a big cash out when funds do become available.

great post dude. Have you seen the message boards. People are going apeshit because they cant access their funds. You are right it may big a good time to short bitcoin after the road comes back up. alot of people have bills to pay.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on May 01, 2013, 03:12:22 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: notme on May 01, 2013, 05:55:47 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: hugolp on May 01, 2013, 09:11:25 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

Its obvious that a lot of Silkroaders (or however they want to be called) are cashing out at least part of their bitcoins as they are able to access the site. A lot of the sellers are not "Bitcoin believers" like most of the early adopters, but just drug sellers that are using Bitcoin because its useful (which is fine), so they tend to preffer holding fiat more than bitcoins, specially now that there is uncertainty. As more people access SR and have access to the funds more selling presure will appear. I think they will regret it long term and in a few years they wish they had kept their bitcoins, but you can not fault them for wanting something they are more familiar with and cashing out if they are not really into Bitcoin as a monetary system changer but just as a useful method to sell drugs.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: samson on May 01, 2013, 09:41:43 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: arepo on May 01, 2013, 09:44:51 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

i'm fairly confident that these selloffs were a significant proportion coins of SR vendors. that being said, the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Krabby on May 01, 2013, 10:49:21 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

 the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: arepo on May 01, 2013, 11:26:38 AM
the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?

of course. :)

'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.

oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.

-===-

*1-month 6-hour scale*

http://s14.postimg.org/59i554lw1/overbought.png

-===-

if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).

further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.

hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?

--arepo


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Krabby on May 01, 2013, 11:42:52 AM
the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?

of course. :)

'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.

oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.

-===-

*1-month 6-hour scale*

*snip*

-===-

if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).

further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.

hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?

--arepo

Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment :P.
I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.

Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: arepo on May 01, 2013, 11:52:03 AM
Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment :P.
I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.

Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.

no problem ;)

in regards to the Y-axis:

oscillators are usually rational transforms of price and volume data -- that is they look like fractions, having the form N/D for some N(price, volume) and D(price, volume).

this allows them to move within a fixed range for any (price, volume) input: 100 to 0, or 0 to -100. this would make the equilibrium or 'neutral' point the midline -- 50 on the RSI and -50 on the William's oscillator.

it'll take time to familiarize yourself with what the figures represent, but they can be very useful.

i hope my follow up worked for further clarification.

--arepo


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: Wuji on May 01, 2013, 03:22:49 PM
I have worked with some graphs in trading to make money but, they are usually a tiny piece of a puzzle.  News reports are a much greater impact on price than any graph can predict.  We should have a competition for those who claim to make money using charts.  Post your charts with your prediction, put in your orders, take some screen shots, and then show us your profit.  For some reason no one ever seems to do this. My theory is that 99% of graph theory tends to be hindsight as it fails to take in most important factors in price movement.  If I'm wrong it should be really simple to make predictions and profit and prove me wrong, right?  I bet anyone who can successfully day trade Bitcoin for 30-60 days could get us to pool in a few million and all get super rich.  I wont hold my breath. :)


Title: Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now.
Post by: meangreen on May 01, 2013, 05:26:07 PM
im thinking there might be a little more pain, just based on the fact that alot of people are at work, sleeping or havent been able to get on still to the silk road. BUT I think in the short term still upward mo imo.