Bitcoin Forum

Came across this gem while reading a book.Perfectly relates to the mentality of gamblers on bitcointalk.You all are deluding yourselves committing fallacies all the time! Whenever you are planning to gamble next ,please save the below images and fix it in your cranium.

https://preview.ibb.co/g6CKQv/lmao.png

Thank me later.

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray  ;D

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

I don't know the name either but I notice this as well people consistently losing money thinking they can do better because they are betting on sports. In reality the result is the same whether you are betting in a completely random game or on sports, that is the house always wins and the overwhelmingly vast majority of people lose. Its pure hubris that almost all gamblers think they are part of the one in a hundred thousand people who can consistently do better than the odds in sports betting.

Reading on that gem (text) Those kind of perceptions are really normal for a certain gambler but it would really depend on which game you do play but when we do talk about streaks  we cant really guess what would be the next results- it is somehow part of our instinct to think off that this might be the next result- it is on our minds all over again and again. Chances may hit chances may missed its just all about that thing.

This is the first time I see this article and it is correct, eventhough in dice game hi and low got the same winning percentage but actually the outcome is not based on percentage but it's independent but I always feel like high and low result must be balance, this actually only appear in our mind, but I reached one point where I think I am not going to win in any gambling so I just bet with my feeling

IMHO. He just referring on analysis skills that's why he came up on that conclusion. But being smart does not mean we choose the game that is for smart. Dice game is not for dumb people. Dice game is for the people that has a courage to put their faith of winning in luck.

I am far from being perfect and I don't pretend to be always right either. In the article you posted it's said that people are not smart because they are trying to beat fixed odds. This is true for casino games only. It's different for sports betting , though. The odds are not fixed against you most of the time, you can bet live and extract a lot of value if you are watching the games and can predict the future based on what you are seeing. I am not saying people who roll dice are stupid. Dice is just rolling and praying. You could spend your time doing other things not entirely based on luck.
Cheers.

They're trying to beat the fixed odds by the things that don't matter like "Turning around your chairs so you may think the next dice roll would work in your favor" - That's not smart.

Again,predicting the future doesn't change the odds,does it ? How many times have you been successful with future analysis ? I get your point but there is a limit to what you can predict with your knowledge and skills.Fact is,you cannot predict the future,unless of course you're Nostradamus.

You can have an educated guess how many times Chelsea would beat a low tier team in 10 matches.
You can't predict how many times in 10 attempts you would pick a red ball from a black bag holding equal numbers of red and blue balls because you are picking blindly.

I don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the future, I just need to be good at math and play the right odds to be 51% right  ;D And you have profit! What a miracle  :D

Obvious answers don't count.

Dude there is something called as probability and your above scenario can precisely be calculated with Math.

My Sample set = {10 red balls,10 blue balls}

Event of picking a ball at random = {Red Ball,Blue Ball}

I've lost my combinations basics but I'd solve it :P


Math didn't predict the rise of a kid named Hitler,Nostradamus Did.Anyway Suit yourself.

Nice! I can see you have resorted to trolling. No more comments. I wish you good luck rolling at the dice sites  ;)

Suit yourself ->  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_variable

A gambling fallacy is to assume you have a 100% chance of winning when you are gambling on dice with >90% chance. You will get to win most of the time but it is not worth it to risk huge amount of capital to win meager amounts. Many gamblers thought you will win for sure and place big bets. One loss will not even cover 9 wins at such odds.

The thing about sports is it can be subjective as there're many variables involved that are hard to accurately predict. And I guess sometimes the sportsbooks may miscalculate or misjudge that give rise to opportunities to make good bets?

Nothing that I didn't already new, but it's well explained there. That's why I think casino games should only be played for fun, and poker ans sports betting are the only ones that can be played for profit. For some reason a lot of people still try to find dice and roulette strategies etc. Maybe this will help them.

I agree sports betting can be more profitable than all the rest of gambling games, but many people don't go through this way because they don't have accurate predictions about it (like me), so it's better to try the luck on Dice game with some different strategies than try sports betting with fail predictions.

This argument reforces that sports betting can give better chances of winning, but only if you have knowledge about the sports and the teams. Surely it's not a 100% of profit all the time, sometimes you can have losses, but what matters is the profit on long term, and it's possible to achieve as we don't are taking in consideration only luck events, but the skills of the teams and its players.

I've got an exception for you, playing professional poker and purely relying on the stats that the HUD (Hold'em manager) gives you.
Too bad that there aren't any Bitcoin poker sites supported by any good HUD's like HM.

Every time I play dice or roulette or some other -EV game, I NEVER make any predictions about future bets ;)

Regardless,the fallacies still remain the same.It isn't even the future bet,you take random things into consideration to predict the outputs.Like sitting on the left side of the table or switching sides every two games.These are the factors that suffice your 'confirmation bias'.

Haha I guess so,couldn't make  it any simpler.

Actually this is a very good point that the OP pointed out, I have seen some gamblers complaining about getting over 20 red in a row playing dice when the winning chance is set at 50%, I believe it can happen in the long run, it is called the variety of rolls, with so many rolls being rolled out, there will be a certain point when a long streak of reds could appeared as every number have the same percentage chance to roll out in every roll. It doesn't meant that the number being rolled out last round won't appear again.

I would say i am one of these and i know most gamblers would do that sometimes they could  eat the odds and arent just so lucky. I honestly had an eye opener when i was reading but i think it just normal to know the previous happenings. But it is just to a gambler if he would base  it there. I did not even know there was a term for such thing. Anyways i would have a different gambling strat if only  i had read this earlier.

We all know this and commit it! I still throw down a x100 bet every now and then when I feel I haven't seen a hit in a long, long time. Even with sports I do the same, especially with high-ratio win teams like Bayern or Barca. When I see a x17 payout and it feels like the big teams are due a loss, I take it. Works out about 50/50 of the time  ;D

Not exactly.
I wouldn't say people playing casinos are stupid because that's a hobby as good as any. But there is a difference between sport betting and casinos.

In casinos odds are fixed so that you lose. No matter what you do, on the long run you lose. Simply a question of great numbers law.

In sport betting, that's more complicated. Now a match will have X outcomes, each of which have an Xi probability to happen. Problem is that NO ONE KNOWS the value of Xi.
So you CAN beat the odds here if you're able to predict the Xi more accurately than the sport books and see when their Xi are higher than they should.

Now you'll tell me "yeah you think you can beat professionals? They're right 99% of the times" well NO. Because sport books don't want to be accurate, they don't care about finding the right Xi, that's not what's important. What's important is to put the probabilities in order to win more money: so putting odds to INFLUENCE the MAJORITY of people.
So if you're smarter and know better and analyze better than the majority of people, then you're automatically able to beat the sport book. Simply because the sport book won't care about you, it will care about the majority of players!

With what OP have there like others have said, it's nothing new because when it comes to online gambling, no matter your mentality, its not dependent on whether you will win or lose because it has been configured in addition to that the provably fair mechanism which has added to the reputation of gambling sites around here have equally taken off the issue of unnecessary thinking and mentality issues.

I do not think that the luck of a gambler and his quality depend on the mentality. Of course, an ordinary person can make so many mistakes, but if he has good self-control, the network games will bring Positive, both financially and morally.

(Pssst.... check my sig for a bitcoin poker site that is supported by HM2)

The great thing about poker is that you can exploit and profit from, among others, players who subscribe to the so-called "Gambler's Fallacy."

Anyway, real gamblers know the "Gambler's Truism" which simply states, "It is bad luck to be superstitious."  ::)

Agree with others that say don't bother playing any game that is against the house, if you're going to gamble then you're much better off learning poker or sports betting...anything that is against other players.

Exactly, playing directly against the house can be very difficult to win but in sports betting where you play against other teams and indirectly against the house you rather stand a good chance of winning because the house cannot directly influence the game in their favor.

Thanks for sharing a small part of the book that you're reading. I admit that I do this when I play roulette after seeing the previous results when there's a lot of black/red I immediately hop on the opposite color expecting to win trying to outsmart the house but in the end I always lose.

Actually I will thank you now.   Thanks for not being completely clear. Are you saying that you think we, As gamblers , are supposed to rely on logic and not luck? 

Luck is the fun part and logic tells me .... casinos have very bright lights. ;)0
O

True. But there are still some games where skill can overwhelm the odds and make you a winner  ;D

House may not be directly influencing on sports game results but some bookies will change these results by match fixes. So basically all gambling games involve almost same risk. Even though we think that in sports we can analyse the results better but still end result depends on luck. That's why I always prefer to bet small amount even though I'm very sure about the winning team in sports betting.

The gambler's fallacy can also occur in sportsbetting. A good example would be all those gamblers who bet against a team or an athlete that keeps on winning because they think the team on a steak is already bound to lose. Robert Whitaker is a good example.

Assuming sport betting an easy way of gambling for profit making must be kind of fallacy and I do not see any big differences from flipping a coin nor from rolling dice. Fallacy is everywhere because people get into gambling just due to wrong guidelines.

When there are misinterpretations and paid reviews on gambling, people will imagine many more fallacies and will keep trying it. But there could be some set of gamblers who are good to control themselves. For them this kind of articles may help to come out of gambling fallacy.

That is a different thing altogether.Had it been something like today the team X is going to win because they're wearing my favourite colour jersey,they'll be committing a fallacy then.

Exactly! Also sports betting is not an easy way of gambling,you don't need much knowledge to roll a dice but certainly need to know about the sport if you're betting on a particular game.

Well I learn it the hardway. Was playing baccarat and I went against what was that time a streak of "banker". I was going against this one Chinese guy, and I'm always betting against him. And then this streak began, still betting that the next card will be player, but unfortunately, it went to like 5 or 10 streak (I can't remember it). I was pissed out. But now, I formulate my own gambling strategy whether its baccarat or roulette basing on the last result. Though I didn't know that there's some thing as this.

It will probably happen if the confusion of gamblers that occurred there in sports betting if all gamblers bet against the team that already lost will happen then the steak as I think that sports betting should have the experience of it in the gambling game