Gambler's Fallacy (and you are committing it all the time)

[Patatas]

Came across this gem while reading a book.Perfectly relates to the mentality of gamblers on bitcointalk.You all are deluding yourselves committing fallacies all the time! Whenever you are planning to gamble next ,please save the below images and fix it in your cranium.



Thank me later.

[Wendigo]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

[Patatas]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

[dimatu]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

I don't know the name either but I notice this as well people consistently losing money thinking they can do better because they are betting on sports. In reality the result is the same whether you are betting in a completely random game or on sports, that is the house always wins and the overwhelmingly vast majority of people lose. Its pure hubris that almost all gamblers think they are part of the one in a hundred thousand people who can consistently do better than the odds in sports betting.

[Oilacris]

Reading on that gem (text) Those kind of perceptions are really normal for a certain gambler but it would really depend on which game you do play but when we do talk about streaks  we cant really guess what would be the next results- it is somehow part of our instinct to think off that this might be the next result- it is on our minds all over again and again. Chances may hit chances may missed its just all about that thing.

[xuan87]

This is the first time I see this article and it is correct, eventhough in dice game hi and low got the same winning percentage but actually the outcome is not based on percentage but it's independent but I always feel like high and low result must be balance, this actually only appear in our mind, but I reached one point where I think I am not going to win in any gambling so I just bet with my feeling

[BlockEye]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

IMHO. He just referring on analysis skills that's why he came up on that conclusion. But being smart does not mean we choose the game that is for smart. Dice game is not for dumb people. Dice game is for the people that has a courage to put their faith of winning in luck.

[Wendigo]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

I am far from being perfect and I don't pretend to be always right either. In the article you posted it's said that people are not smart because they are trying to beat fixed odds. This is true for casino games only. It's different for sports betting , though. The odds are not fixed against you most of the time, you can bet live and extract a lot of value if you are watching the games and can predict the future based on what you are seeing. I am not saying people who roll dice are stupid. Dice is just rolling and praying. You could spend your time doing other things not entirely based on luck.
Cheers.

[Patatas]

I am far from being perfect and I don't pretend to be always right either. In the article you posted it's said that people are not smart because they are trying to beat fixed odds.

They're trying to beat the fixed odds by the things that don't matter like "Turning around your chairs so you may think the next dice roll would work in your favor" - That's not smart.

This is true for casino games only. It's different for sports betting , though. The odds are not fixed against you most of the time, you can bet live and extract a lot of value if you are watching the games and can predict the future based on what you are seeing.

Again,predicting the future doesn't change the odds,does it ? How many times have you been successful with future analysis ? I get your point but there is a limit to what you can predict with your knowledge and skills.Fact is,you cannot predict the future,unless of course you're Nostradamus.

[Wendigo]

I am far from being perfect and I don't pretend to be always right either. In the article you posted it's said that people are not smart because they are trying to beat fixed odds.

They're trying to beat the fixed odds by the things that don't matter like "Turning around your chairs so you may think the next dice roll would work in your favor" - That's not smart.

This is true for casino games only. It's different for sports betting , though. The odds are not fixed against you most of the time, you can bet live and extract a lot of value if you are watching the games and can predict the future based on what you are seeing.

Again,predicting the future doesn't change the odds,does it ? How many times have you been successful with future analysis ? I get your point but there is a limit to what you can predict with your knowledge and skills.Fact is,you cannot predict the future,unless of course you're Nostradamus.

You can have an educated guess how many times Chelsea would beat a low tier team in 10 matches.
You can't predict how many times in 10 attempts you would pick a red ball from a black bag holding equal numbers of red and blue balls because you are picking blindly.

I don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the future, I just need to be good at math and play the right odds to be 51% right   And you have profit! What a miracle  

[Patatas]

You can have an educated guess how many times Chelsea would beat a low tier team in 10 matches.

Obvious answers don't count.

You can't predict how many times in 10 attempts you would pick a red ball from a black bag holding equal numbers of red and blue balls because you are picking blindly.

Dude there is something called as probability and your above scenario can precisely be calculated with Math.

My Sample set = {10 red balls,10 blue balls}

Event of picking a ball at random = {Red Ball,Blue Ball}

I've lost my combinations basics but I'd solve it

I don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the future, I just need to be good at math and play the right odds to be 51% right   And you have profit! What a miracle  

Math didn't predict the rise of a kid named Hitler,Nostradamus Did.Anyway Suit yourself.

[Wendigo]

You can have an educated guess how many times Chelsea would beat a low tier team in 10 matches.

Obvious answers don't count.

You can't predict how many times in 10 attempts you would pick a red ball from a black bag holding equal numbers of red and blue balls because you are picking blindly.

Dude there is something called as probability and your above scenario can precisely be calculated with Math.

My Sample set = {10 red balls,10 blue balls}

Event of picking a ball at random = {Red Ball,Blue Ball}

I've lost my combinations basics but I'd solve it

I don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the future, I just need to be good at math and play the right odds to be 51% right   And you have profit! What a miracle  

Math didn't predict the rise of a kid named Hitler,Nostradamus Did.Anyway Suit yourself.

Nice! I can see you have resorted to trolling. No more comments. I wish you good luck rolling at the dice sites  

Suit yourself ->  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_variable

[shanem]

A gambling fallacy is to assume you have a 100% chance of winning when you are gambling on dice with >90% chance. You will get to win most of the time but it is not worth it to risk huge amount of capital to win meager amounts. Many gamblers thought you will win for sure and place big bets. One loss will not even cover 9 wins at such odds.

[michaelch]

I don't know the name either but I notice this as well people consistently losing money thinking they can do better because they are betting on sports. In reality the result is the same whether you are betting in a completely random game or on sports, that is the house always wins and the overwhelmingly vast majority of people lose. Its pure hubris that almost all gamblers think they are part of the one in a hundred thousand people who can consistently do better than the odds in sports betting.

The thing about sports is it can be subjective as there're many variables involved that are hard to accurately predict. And I guess sometimes the sportsbooks may miscalculate or misjudge that give rise to opportunities to make good bets?

[FrueGreads]

Nothing that I didn't already new, but it's well explained there. That's why I think casino games should only be played for fun, and poker ans sports betting are the only ones that can be played for profit. For some reason a lot of people still try to find dice and roulette strategies etc. Maybe this will help them.

[mrcash02]

Nothing that I didn't already new, but it's well explained there. That's why I think casino games should only be played for fun, and poker ans sports betting are the only ones that can be played for profit. For some reason a lot of people still try to find dice and roulette strategies etc. Maybe this will help them.

I agree sports betting can be more profitable than all the rest of gambling games, but many people don't go through this way because they don't have accurate predictions about it (like me), so it's better to try the luck on Dice game with some different strategies than try sports betting with fail predictions.

This argument reforces that sports betting can give better chances of winning, but only if you have knowledge about the sports and the teams. Surely it's not a 100% of profit all the time, sometimes you can have losses, but what matters is the profit on long term, and it's possible to achieve as we don't are taking in consideration only luck events, but the skills of the teams and its players.

[eternalgloom]

I've got an exception for you, playing professional poker and purely relying on the stats that the HUD (Hold'em manager) gives you.
Too bad that there aren't any Bitcoin poker sites supported by any good HUD's like HM.

Every time I play dice or roulette or some other -EV game, I NEVER make any predictions about future bets

[Patatas]

Every time I play dice or roulette or some other -EV game, I NEVER make any predictions about future bets

Regardless,the fallacies still remain the same.It isn't even the future bet,you take random things into consideration to predict the outputs.Like sitting on the left side of the table or switching sides every two games.These are the factors that suffice your 'confirmation bias'.

For some reason a lot of people still try to find dice and roulette strategies etc. Maybe this will help them.

Haha I guess so,couldn't make  it any simpler.

[Barcode_]

Actually this is a very good point that the OP pointed out, I have seen some gamblers complaining about getting over 20 red in a row playing dice when the winning chance is set at 50%, I believe it can happen in the long run, it is called the variety of rolls, with so many rolls being rolled out, there will be a certain point when a long streak of reds could appeared as every number have the same percentage chance to roll out in every roll. It doesn't meant that the number being rolled out last round won't appear again.

[Faiyz]

Actually this is a very good point that the OP pointed out, I have seen some gamblers complaining about getting over 20 red in a row playing dice when the winning chance is set at 50%, I believe it can happen in the long run, it is called the variety of rolls, with so many rolls being rolled out, there will be a certain point when a long streak of reds could appeared as every number have the same percentage chance to roll out in every roll. It doesn't meant that the number being rolled out last round won't appear again.

I would say i am one of these and i know most gamblers would do that sometimes they could  eat the odds and arent just so lucky. I honestly had an eye opener when i was reading but i think it just normal to know the previous happenings. But it is just to a gambler if he would base  it there. I did not even know there was a term for such thing. Anyways i would have a different gambling strat if only  i had read this earlier.