Bitcoin Forum

I'm not going to say anything here, except that the similarity between these charts is eerie, and the second image comes from a real estate article, not Bitcoin.

1 YEAR CHART, yes the timescale is missing, get over it. Look it up on blockchain.info but do not accuse me of manipulation anymore because I will ignore it.
http://inceptic.com/btcchart.png
Anatomy of a bubble from oftwominds.com
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos09/anatomy-bubble.png

Alternative and even more similar charts provided by dexX7. These suggest more optimism.

Here's another one.

http://www.cycleprooutlook.com/Charts/SP500/Djia176_0807.jpg

All I see is a bull pendant forming.

Yes, it is concerning.

The Great Dollar Extraction is upon us.

Better use this image to propagate the bear propaganda. :D

http://i44.tinypic.com/24g7fab.jpg

It's not concerning but expected.

Why is that? The picture above, especially the "final capitulation" seems so final, as if Bitcoin wouldn't recover or proceed to higher highs after that.

Oh come on not another one of these charts... No it's not concerning at all, we've been through this many times already. Either you believe in bitcoin or you don't, price fluctuations on the short term should not bother you much. Maybe we'll revisit $50 again, maybe we'll even bottom out at $30.. who cares in a year from now you'll be showing these exact same charts when we top at $5000 and you'll be worried about whether we go down below $1000 per bitcoin again.

OP top graph lacks a time scale.  I assume it's the all-time chart...

I believe in Bitcoin, but buying at $120 or so is not a great idea if it is likely it will be half off soon... I still think it's a little overvalued in the short term.

My thoughts exactly.

That is a good point, we may already be (almost) completely corrected based on this chart.

I just expect it. Still nothing is certain.


The final capitulation seems so final, yeah that certainly makes sense.  ::)

It's a 1 year chart.

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I don't think there is any question that Bitcoin will recover and eventually reach new highs, I'm just unsure of when this will happen.

Remember this, guys?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2011-03-01&e=2011-11-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Now look at this:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2013-01-01&e=2013-05-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Now, at what point do you think we are?

Someone should graph the the occurrences of this image in this forum - I am sure that can be used as a kind of indicator.

Aahahahahahahah


Good one.

I'm not sure I buy in to that one myself, but looking at the actual data instead of the forecast, notice that bubbles do tend to have a distinct shape.

Expected and not concerning at all. Bitcoin needs a sustainable price trend. Bubbling is not sustainable. Thus, this burst/correction is needed and welcomed.

Take this chance to buy more coins.

Surprisingly familiar... xD

Don't worry. Bitcoin's gon'go up!

It's funny because even though I personally thought Bitcoin would never have a bubble like the 2011 one again, people still bought in, and insults raged at anyone who called, or even voiced concern about it. I'm optimistic about Bitcoin long term, but the reality is, the community loves its baby more than the rest of the world does (as of yet), and is too bullish in general. After a 2046% rise from $13 to $266, all anyone could say is  "Don't sell now! We're headed to $1000 and beyond!"

My point is, we just recently saw irrational thinking with regards to price (I was beginning to succumb myself so this isn't an insult) on a scale that just shouldn't be possible, and I think caution is still warranted. The price could go up... but it could go down $50 or even $30.

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A prime example of my point. This is the kind of thinking that created the bubble in the first place.

It's all over guys. Someone found two graphs that looks similar. Pack up you bags and head out.

Only if you think bitcoin is a bubble :D

+1 and -1 at the same time. Haha.

What's truly incredible is that Bitcoin went down 81% in 3 days. So that part is already worse than 2011, where it "only" crashed from 32 to 10 in the initial burst. I also thought this market would get more efficient at higher prices, it's truly incredible. It's like the speculator's perpetuum mobile, the infinite money making machine.

Also, I love how everyone gets hyped about some news piece and justifies the next bull trap with it. It's Tuesday after a long weekend, and the price is going down like on the last Tuesday.

I don't think Bitcoin is a bubble, but it's price may be. There is a difference.

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+1. The news coverage is encouraging, but don't forget that the news, in the US and in China, covers a lot of BS, crap and useless junk. That's not what Bitcoin is, but most viewers don't know the difference. Also, as long as coverage refers to Bitcoin as "A computerized currency that can be generated by solving math problems on any computer" without a rigorous discussion of the benefits, it doesn't do us much good.

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The market certainly isn't bullish right now. Just traded at $100/1BTC

Take this chance to buy and spend coins. That way you can demonstrate their real promise.

Blitz this post seems slightly bullish relative to your prior bearish posts. so id like to understand what kinda beast r u?

Also what are pplz opinion abt ripple. 10X itself in a week. personally i think its a scam but it seems like we could make some money on this don't y'all think?:)

Notice how the OP completely exposes himself as a douchey troll by fuxx0ring with the time scale to make it appear that we haven't already hit the "real bottom."

If what OP suggests is correct and the BTC bubble will have the same "bubble anatomy," OP must logically follow through and conclude that we already hit the "real bottom" right above fifty, and we are right before the "final capitulation" which I am waiting for. But instead, OP fucked with the time scale, manipulated it to appear that we were only at the beginning stage of the "bubble anatomy."

+9000 internet fail points to OP!

If I had a good picture of the Phail Quail I would post him here for you.

TL;DR: If you believe the two bubble anatomies will be identical, sell 5-10% and wait a week for final capitulation, buy back in, and you're good to go.

If you believe OP's obvious timescale manipulation, you're a tool, so sell all your bitcoins and go back to investing in real estate ;D ;D ;D

ppl were showing the same chart after the 2011 crash.

Congrats. You are this week's poster of THAT CHART :)

Yes, it goes up a bit then down a bit, up some more and down some more.

http://www.robotroom.com/Weather-Station/Graph-of-weather-data-for-June-29-to-July-2-2010-in-Chicago-Illinois-USA.gif


Jokes aside, graphs/charts are a good guiding factor to help you understand markets but predicting markets is an entirely different thing.

I've seen that same graph 100s of times, sometimes it was true and sometimes it wasn't. I wouldn't be concerned over something appearing to look similar to that trend though. After all during the older BTC crashes people showed those same charts and now bitcoins have multiplied many times.

It just seems so strange to see so many people suggesting that the bubble is over (..."onto the next bubble"...)

Doesn't seem to be in tune with the nature of bubbles. Are these people saying that this was not, in fact, a bubble? Or simply that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset?

If you make decisions on the basis that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset, I think you might be crazy. That bitcoin might be novel, etc. doesn't change its nature.

This is exactly what people here actually believe. Just a month ago, every other thread was talking about bitcoin being the "new paradigm" (yes, people used those exact words), and how bitcoin was different from every other speculative tool/investment.

It`s called denial.

The difference is that there's a lot happening around bitcoin at the moment and the amazing potential is still there. Other assets don't have this kind of potential that could blow its value to the sky way beyond any bubble we've ever seen before. Look at the bitcoin bubble of 2011 and where we are now, people know this could very well happen again so this might keep the 'bubble' from deflating like normal asset bubbles.

I wrote this a couple of time (I have to spam again).  There are 7,000,000,000 people on the earth and only 11,000,00 btc now.  It is impossible than 1% (70,000,000 people) can have 1 btc (because there is not enough Bitcoins) = logic =>  Bitcoin will be worth more than $300,000 USD or crash to ZERO (no other choices)

What is your bet ? $0 or $300,000  (there is not between ... long term(10 years) ) ... will you buy ONE (only ONE is enough) ?

Do you consider what you are saying to be rational? Serious question.


You lost me at "logic". I don't see a basis for this at all.

I don't know if it's rational or not, I do believe the amazing potential is there but I couldn't say how high the chances are that bitcoin will actually live up to its potential. I just think it's great to be able to be a part of it, even if it does fail it will still serve as a catalyst for another crypto-currencies to become part of the mainstream. I think many people share in this excitement and the fire is spreading. The current bubble talk just pales in comparison to this, I just don't see it as important in the entire picture.

In 10 yrs there will be more than 11 mil BTC.

1000-1500 dollars seems doable. I could tolerate spikes to maybe 3000. But 300k.. Insane. Nothing worth that much. And yes, we could split into many 0s. But think to gold also. 1g is 45 bucks. Not much right? But not much gold either.

:-) Try to use them if you have any. You can buy goods, services ..., soon I'm accepting payments only in Bitcoins (it does not matter if you want to eat or buy drugs * ... I ACCEPT ONLY BITCOIN )


* I offer software development services.

The price of gold is ~1,500/oz the LOWEST estimates of the amount of gold in the world say that there is ~4.9billion oz of gold that has been mined in the world.

Compare that to 21 million BTC

This assumes that BTC will become the defacto world currency.  That is an insanely huge assumption with no evidence to support it.



Another big assumption. BTC could just as easily keep booming and busting like it is now, or stagnate around any given price. 

Beats bitcoins tough.

Why bitcoin is so unstable. 0-32(bottom 2)5-265(bottom 50) 50-165(bottom 79) ... next number are 300(bottom),1500(bottom),7500(bottom),40000(bottom),200000(bottom)

I already are stamped a payed troll, so I've got you beat.

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It's people like ripetila which pay me - kinda.
Irrational investors which make syphoning off money from price swings easy.

I post mainly for the laughs though.

Bitcoin is unstable because of rampant speculation driven by media hype.

I really hope you don't actually believe what you just typed, there is no reason to think those numbers hold any validity.

Here is one that is more up to date and with a log scale, and you can see that it didn't follow the arrow down quite yet.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/dj-lt-infl.gif
Source: http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/ (http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/)

I didn't fuck with anything, I mistakingly left out the time scale when I cropped it. It's a one year chart.  I thought the charts looked similar but if you actually read my posts you will see that I acknowledge that we are likely at the final capitulation. I'm not a bull or a bear, I'm cautious: May I suggest that I'm not an idiot for raising a concern and discussing it openly? Don't be an ass--I didn't manipulate anything.

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There is no manipulation, it's a 1 year chart, all of you should be able to tell by looking, this is how I first noticed the similarities. I mistakenly cropped it out. Why would I waste my time "manipulating the timescale?" Get a life, not everyone is out to get you.

I didn't even make any assertions, I just said it's concerning. I even admitted that we are likely past the final capitulation (although I'm not sure yet) when someone posted a different chart. You can disagree without being a jerk.  8)

Hey guys, I'm OP's alt account, I can't believe you are all so stupid for falling for my failtroll FUD trick! Classic graph comparison, oldest trick in the book! Here's how it's done:

1) Take graph of classic bubble anatomy; include labels.

2) Take graph of BTC up to and following April crash.
     
      2a) Zoom out 300%
     
      2b) Pan as far left as possible so it looks like very little price action occurred following BTC bubble compared to real estate bubble.


You'll notice that now, the zoom/pan functions allowed me to make it appear as if the price action following the BTC crash, which is actually nearly identical to the "classic bubble anatomy graph," is insignificant and we are still going to crash down to $2, the "Real bottom." If you zoom back in and pan so that the segments of space with little price action before the crash are actually comparable (rather than a ridiculously unforgivable amount of zero action displayed on the leftmost 3/4 of the BTC graph compared to almost none of the real estate graph) you'll see that we've already hit most of the points in the "bubble graph." Yes, denial, yes, "new normal," yes, "real bottom" and we are right around "real capitulation."

Now I'm actually a schizo with MPD, so don't tell my other half (the real OP on my alt account) that I gave out his secrets or his hopes of using the speculation subforum to talk down the price will be completely shot.

Sorry OP, I know I can be an unforgivable asshole. For the record, I don't think you actually went into GIMP and did all this, nor do I think you're a troll trying to talk down the price. I just think it's funny that you present two graphs as comparable simply because they both have a 1y timescale, when the amount of insignificant pre-bubble price action is like 3/4 on one of the charts and almost none on the other chart. I might be an unforgiveable asshole but THAT is unforgivable chart-fail ;D ;D ;D

It seems like every other week the denizens of Bitcointalk learn this very important lesson: Using the zoom/pan function (or, the original image compilers using this function and an innocent yet passively complicit bystander such as Razick posting it) you can make any graph look like any other graph. Why don't I just shove up a graph of AAPL with it's inverse double bottom and say we're going back to $260 in a couple days?

We are at 120 where we were at 12 on the down slope of 2011... By this conclusion, someone can expect it could go down to 20 before uptrend to 2500.

My point of view is that it is the worst case scenario, and I've hard time imagining such a low of 20.  Bitcoin are way more evolve compared to 2011.. 20 seems almost impossible, except for a  long list of really bad thing happening to BTC in the next year.

I buy as I can below 100, and dont want to sell any under 1000, even 2000...

BTC under 50 is part of history,
BTC under 100 are real bargain cheap coin, and are rare occasion

I've bought a lot under 100, and sold much over 200

I'll buy alot under 1000, and sell only some over 2000 !

-- Perma-bull

On this tought : My bet is 300 000 !

Every crash looks the same, what matters is the difference, otherwise everyone will be able to make perfect predictions.

I will leave it to you to find out where the differences are.

Looks more like a medallion to me.

I make out a wet pig being flogged by the purple canopy when i use astro-bulgarian fishstick patterns...

I like you!

Anyway, I called up, let's see :).

I think you zoomed out too far man O_O

Keep in mind Gox being down for a week after the crash in 2011 skews the charts. The price stayed at $20 because there was no point trading on the other exchanges - why dump your coins in an almost empty order book when you can just wait for gox to open up again and try to be the first to dump ? (I remember fishing the bottom at $14.5 back then, but I made sure to sell again after the recovery) If you remove that period there is no triangle anymore, the price just went down, down, down pretty consistently, lower bottoms everywhere, with selloffs and their bounces up.
There was no historical data at that time to try and predict what the bottom would be - people thought maybe bitcoin was just doomed to fail and would go back to < $0.1 like it had been for most of its existence. Today even the lowest exponential trendline sets us up to about $20 a coin. There will be immense buying pressure if we even get near that price again, only satoshi dumping his stash could bring the price down to single digits. Unless something in the fundamentals changes of course, like a catastrophic protocol failure, 51% attack, enforced govt ban... but then it will be an instant death.

If you look at the August 2012 bubble it also looks very similar, and we all know it didn't work out so badly.
Or the price action after the $1.99 capitulation compared to the crash to $50.
Or maybe you are right we're just at the beginning of a long and painful slide down. Who knows.

I see a classic bear turd forming.

Like the "final capitulation" from the 2011 crash was final?

+1

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I did not pan at all, it's a one year chart from blockchain.info that includes ALL data as of yesterday. The anatomy of a bubble was made elsewhere and if you actually read my posts, there have been some other charts posted suggesting that the full "cycle" is just about over and I agreed that that was likely.


Yea, pretty much, and I didn't. I was set to go all in at the price of $102 since I'm actually somewhat bullish at that price, but I saw this chart elsewhere and noticed the similarities to the 1 year chart. I didn't even make a claim about it, I asked for people's opinions with the title "Is this concerning"


You may not, but responding to my other critics who do, that is a completely idiotic statement: Yea, I might be able to save $0.00000001 per Bitcoin after my minuscule influence is priced in. I even said in an interview (http://bitcoin-square.com/exclusive-interview-with-the-owner-of-txt-paintball-the-bitcoin-accepting-paintball-store/) quite mildly that "I wouldn't be surprised if prices declined ... [but] ... long term I expect prices much higher than the $266 peak" and got similar responses. Yea--that will drive down the price.

Funny how in the Bitcoin forums you can't even be a cautious bull, like me, you have to be a raging lunatic bull: "$1,000,000/BTC by May 31!!!"  ::)

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TL:DR Thoughtful individuals, see the charts and draw your own conclusions.

Every crash looks the same?  I could not disagree more.  Actually, every crash looks very different.  Anyone who compares charts between entirely different asset classes and "bubbles" will eventually find matches.  That has absolutely nothing to do with predicting the future exchange rate of BTC.  All that it means is that with a large enough sample you will eventually find a chart that matches.  It is complete random chance, nothing more. 

In the stock market, technical analyis does work sometimes, but the only reason it works is because enough people follow it to make is work.  Otherwise, the past does not predict the future.   

Nope.  Bitcoin isn't different from every other speculative investment.  It's actually very similar (but superior) to gold.
https://i.imgur.com/nfgN2KR.png

I'm pretty sure if you adjust the dates and zoom in just right you can fit the current bitcoin "bubble crash" into the '79 - '82 part of the gold graph.

A highly overinflated price driven by hype, fear, and speculation and is also prone to heavy market manipulation?

Yeah, I'd say that BTC is similar to gold in that respect.

Cool.  Gold has held value for over thousands of years.  If the bitcoin "bubble" lasts that long, I think we will all be pretty happy.

Gold has a lot of utility beyond a store of value, though (jewelry, electronics, medicine, dentistry, chemical catalyst, etc, etc) which is why it has retained its value for thousands of years.  

BTC is useless beyond being a currency or speculative commodity.

I don't think they are really very comparable at all (beyond what I mentioned a couple posts up).

The utility of gold is irrelevant - plastic has better utility, but it's not stable and it's easy to destroy.
Gold is immutable - you fashion the gold into a wedding ring, she dies, and 4000 years later they discover her burial mound, and the gold is still there intact.
But her iphone has long since corroded, along with her beauty and the wonderful life we spent once together - the places we went - those quiet glances of mutual knowing - that radiance that only those who have really experienced true love can ever know. All gone.
(obviously I'm talking about other people's wives - mine's a bitch)

+1

FTFY

Most of the speculative rise with golds price has to do with Peak Gold which is supposed to happen in 2020. Now what happened is that gold futures (which can include gold yet to be mined) piled up to such an extent that it became questionable that the Peak is really 2020, not rather some time later, which can very probable the case.
If you tell a Gold Bug this you can get similarly hostile answers as with a Bitcoiner, but the responses aren't as funny.  ;)

I said FTFY. Should I have written a comprehensive list about what I changed to the sentence? Does the word "financial" change the the point of the sentence at all (that the price of gold in modern times is almost wholly driven by manipulation)?  Come on, you are just nitpicking now.




Manipulated markets are the only real thing BTC and gold have in common, and all the hype about btc being "just like digital gold" is unfounded.

Been posted a million times. There's also plenty of scenario's where bubbles have worked out fine. No one posts them though.

edit: 500 ;o

Well.... That's because they were not bubbles, or they simply did not burst yet

+1, a bubble always bursts, that's why it's called a bubble! If water suddenly became rare, the price could jump to $1,000,000 per gallon and still not be a bubble.