Is this concerning?

[Odalv]

Other assets don't have this kind of potential that could blow its value to the sky way beyond any bubble we've ever seen before.

Do you consider what you are saying to be rational? Serious question.

I wrote this a couple of time (I have to spam again).  There are 7,000,000,000 people on the earth and only 11,000,00 btc now.  It is impossible than 1% (70,000,000 people) can have 1 btc (because there is not enough Bitcoins) = logic =>  Bitcoin will be worth more than $300,000 USD or crash to ZERO (no other choices)

What is your bet ? $0 or $300,000  (there is not between ... long term(10 years) ) ... will you buy ONE (only ONE is enough) ?

You lost me at "logic". I don't see a basis for this at all.

:-) Try to use them if you have any. You can buy goods, services ..., soon I'm accepting payments only in Bitcoins (it does not matter if you want to eat or buy drugs * ... I ACCEPT ONLY BITCOIN )


* I offer software development services.

[Awhut]

In 10 yrs there will be more than 11 mil BTC.

1000-1500 dollars seems doable. I could tolerate spikes to maybe 3000. But 300k.. Insane. Nothing worth that much. And yes, we could split into many 0s. But think to gold also. 1g is 45 bucks. Not much right? But not much gold either.

The price of gold is ~1,500/oz the LOWEST estimates of the amount of gold in the world say that there is ~4.9billion oz of gold that has been mined in the world.

Compare that to 21 million BTC

[evolve]

I wrote this a couple of time (I have to spam again).  There are 7,000,000,000 people on the earth and only 11,000,00 btc now.  It is impossible than 1% (70,000,000 people) can have 1 btc (because there is not enough Bitcoins)

This assumes that BTC will become the defacto world currency.  That is an insanely huge assumption with no evidence to support it.

 Bitcoin will be worth more than $300,000 USD or crash to ZERO (no other choices)

Another big assumption. BTC could just as easily keep booming and busting like it is now, or stagnate around any given price. 

[ElectricMucus]

beanie babies have 0 utility and very little store of value or practical use.

Beats bitcoins tough.

[Odalv]

I wrote this a couple of time (I have to spam again).  There are 7,000,000,000 people on the earth and only 11,000,00 btc now.  It is impossible than 1% (70,000,000 people) can have 1 btc (because there is not enough Bitcoins)

This assumes that BTC will become the defacto world currency.  That is an insanely huge assumption with no evidence to support it.

Bitcoin will be worth more than $300,000 USD or crash to ZERO (no other choices)

Another big assumption. BTC could just as easily keep booming and busting like it is now, or stagnate around any given price.  

Why bitcoin is so unstable. 0-32(bottom 2)5-265(bottom 50) 50-165(bottom 79) ... next number are 300(bottom),1500(bottom),7500(bottom),40000(bottom),200000(bottom)

[ElectricMucus]

beanie babies have 0 utility and very little store of value or practical use.

Beats bitcoins tough.

right.. i hope someone permenantly quotes you. you will be known as the crazy dude

I already are stamped a payed troll, so I've got you beat.

are you allowed to disclose your backers?

It's people like ripetila which pay me - kinda.
Irrational investors which make syphoning off money from price swings easy.

I post mainly for the laughs though.

[evolve]

Why bitcoin is so unstable. 32-2-265-50-165-79 ... next number are 300(bottom),1500(bottom),7500(bottom),40000(bottom),200000(bottom)

Bitcoin is unstable because of rampant speculation driven by media hype.

I really hope you don't actually believe what you just typed, there is no reason to think those numbers hold any validity.

[mmortal03]

Here's another one.

Here is one that is more up to date and with a log scale, and you can see that it didn't follow the arrow down quite yet.


Source: http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/

[Razick]

But instead, OP fucked with the time scale, manipulated it to appear that we were only at the beginning stage of the "bubble anatomy."

I didn't fuck with anything, I mistakingly left out the time scale when I cropped it. It's a one year chart.  I thought the charts looked similar but if you actually read my posts you will see that I acknowledge that we are likely at the final capitulation. I'm not a bull or a bear, I'm cautious: May I suggest that I'm not an idiot for raising a concern and discussing it openly? Don't be an ass--I didn't manipulate anything.

If you believe OP's obvious timescale manipulation, you're a tool, so sell all your bitcoins and go back to investing in real estate

There is no manipulation, it's a 1 year chart, all of you should be able to tell by looking, this is how I first noticed the similarities. I mistakenly cropped it out. Why would I waste my time "manipulating the timescale?" Get a life, not everyone is out to get you.

I didn't even make any assertions, I just said it's concerning. I even admitted that we are likely past the final capitulation (although I'm not sure yet) when someone posted a different chart. You can disagree without being a jerk. 

[BitcoinAshley]

Hey guys, I'm OP's alt account, I can't believe you are all so stupid for falling for my failtroll FUD trick! Classic graph comparison, oldest trick in the book! Here's how it's done:

1) Take graph of classic bubble anatomy; include labels.

2) Take graph of BTC up to and following April crash.
     
      2a) Zoom out 300%
     
      2b) Pan as far left as possible so it looks like very little price action occurred following BTC bubble compared to real estate bubble.


You'll notice that now, the zoom/pan functions allowed me to make it appear as if the price action following the BTC crash, which is actually nearly identical to the "classic bubble anatomy graph," is insignificant and we are still going to crash down to $2, the "Real bottom." If you zoom back in and pan so that the segments of space with little price action before the crash are actually comparable (rather than a ridiculously unforgivable amount of zero action displayed on the leftmost 3/4 of the BTC graph compared to almost none of the real estate graph) you'll see that we've already hit most of the points in the "bubble graph." Yes, denial, yes, "new normal," yes, "real bottom" and we are right around "real capitulation."

Now I'm actually a schizo with MPD, so don't tell my other half (the real OP on my alt account) that I gave out his secrets or his hopes of using the speculation subforum to talk down the price will be completely shot.

Sorry OP, I know I can be an unforgivable asshole. For the record, I don't think you actually went into GIMP and did all this, nor do I think you're a troll trying to talk down the price. I just think it's funny that you present two graphs as comparable simply because they both have a 1y timescale, when the amount of insignificant pre-bubble price action is like 3/4 on one of the charts and almost none on the other chart. I might be an unforgiveable asshole but THAT is unforgivable chart-fail

It seems like every other week the denizens of Bitcointalk learn this very important lesson: Using the zoom/pan function (or, the original image compilers using this function and an innocent yet passively complicit bystander such as Razick posting it) you can make any graph look like any other graph. Why don't I just shove up a graph of AAPL with it's inverse double bottom and say we're going back to $260 in a couple days?

[fitty]

Look at the bubbles! I'm concerned!

[DoomDumas]

Remember this, guys?



Now look at this:



Now, at what point do you think we are?

We are at 120 where we were at 12 on the down slope of 2011... By this conclusion, someone can expect it could go down to 20 before uptrend to 2500.

My point of view is that it is the worst case scenario, and I've hard time imagining such a low of 20.  Bitcoin are way more evolve compared to 2011.. 20 seems almost impossible, except for a  long list of really bad thing happening to BTC in the next year.

I buy as I can below 100, and dont want to sell any under 1000, even 2000...

BTC under 50 is part of history,
BTC under 100 are real bargain cheap coin, and are rare occasion

I've bought a lot under 100, and sold much over 200

I'll buy alot under 1000, and sell only some over 2000 !

-- Perma-bull

[DoomDumas]

It just seems so strange to see so many people suggesting that the bubble is over (..."onto the next bubble"...)

Doesn't seem to be in tune with the nature of bubbles. Are these people saying that this was not, in fact, a bubble? Or simply that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset?

If you make decisions on the basis that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset, I think you might be crazy. That bitcoin might be novel, etc. doesn't change its nature.

I wrote this a couple of time (I have to spam again).  There are 7,000,000,000 people on the earth and only 11,000,00 btc now.  It is impossible than 1% (70,000,000 people) can have 1 btc (because there is not enough Bitcoins) = logic =>  Bitcoin will be worth more than $300,000 USD or crash to ZERO (no other choices)

What is your bet ? $0 or $300,000  (there is not between ... long term(10 years) ) ... will you buy ONE (only ONE is enough) ?

On this tought : My bet is 300 000 !

[oakpacific]

Remember this, guys?



Now look at this:



Now, at what point do you think we are?

Every crash looks the same, what matters is the difference, otherwise everyone will be able to make perfect predictions.

I will leave it to you to find out where the differences are.

[Le Happy Merchant]

All I see is a bull pendant forming.

Looks more like a medallion to me.

[mobodick]

All I see is a bull pendant forming.

Looks more like a medallion to me.

I make out a wet pig being flogged by the purple canopy when i use astro-bulgarian fishstick patterns...

[San1ty]

All I see is a bull pendant forming.

Looks more like a medallion to me.

I make out a wet pig being flogged by the purple canopy when i use astro-bulgarian fishstick patterns...

I like you!

Anyway, I called up, let's see .

[Ares]

All I see is a bull pendant forming.

Looks more like a medallion to me.

I make out a wet pig being flogged by the purple canopy when i use astro-bulgarian fishstick patterns...

I think you zoomed out too far man O_O

[xorglub]

Keep in mind Gox being down for a week after the crash in 2011 skews the charts. The price stayed at $20 because there was no point trading on the other exchanges - why dump your coins in an almost empty order book when you can just wait for gox to open up again and try to be the first to dump ? (I remember fishing the bottom at $14.5 back then, but I made sure to sell again after the recovery) If you remove that period there is no triangle anymore, the price just went down, down, down pretty consistently, lower bottoms everywhere, with selloffs and their bounces up.
There was no historical data at that time to try and predict what the bottom would be - people thought maybe bitcoin was just doomed to fail and would go back to < $0.1 like it had been for most of its existence. Today even the lowest exponential trendline sets us up to about $20 a coin. There will be immense buying pressure if we even get near that price again, only satoshi dumping his stash could bring the price down to single digits. Unless something in the fundamentals changes of course, like a catastrophic protocol failure, 51% attack, enforced govt ban... but then it will be an instant death.

If you look at the August 2012 bubble it also looks very similar, and we all know it didn't work out so badly.
Or the price action after the $1.99 capitulation compared to the crash to $50.
Or maybe you are right we're just at the beginning of a long and painful slide down. Who knows.

[ManBearPig]

I see a classic bear turd forming.