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If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

Yours!

I see this as a decent contract with your person and will sell you say 100 coins 10K each?

 ;D

I agree with you on some points that all miners should adopt and vote for the activation of segwit and will not bring another issue of activating hardfork. If all miners will agree then we will have a fast confirmation of transactions as well as the increasing value of bitcoin. But I will also disagree with one thing, its about the bitcoin split. When bitcoin will split it will not go bankrupt, the value maybe deflate since users will be divided in two groups. But even if bitcoins value will drop due to bitcoin split but it will still recover like in the case of Ethereum and Ethereum Classic.

Except the engineers are the janitors.

Miners get to decide what happens to bitcoin because they put up something at stake (mining equipment).

Developers on the other hand have nothing at stake and thus do not get to decide. Bitcoin would not work if developers would make decisions.

However if miners chose wrong their stake gets destroyed by the feedback of the market (which is controlled by users/coinholders)

This is what I expect a reasonable miner should do and I believe this matter has been put to rest with the several news across the forum about the acclaimed August 1 activation which I believe is moving towards this direction, but if the miners are now adamant and want to kill this initiative then its a lose all for everybody because nobody would be willing to pay high transaction fees in the face of falling prices.

Not really sure that I can agree with you. I will agree with the point that we should all get a long and not threaten the existence of BTC but to call the miners "janitors" that should just listen to everyone worth listening to is a bit wrong. If we'd always listen to the people worth listening to I'd guess we'd be way further back in our development as a human race. Sometimes the "simple" people can come with ideas that will be revolutionary.

I'm pro segwit and would prefer if everyone could get a long and agree on certain points but without anyonce questioning and raising concerns we'd be doomed.

How sure are you that it will reach $10,000 overnight? What if it does crash more if it was implemented because there would be fears of the unknown again. Yeah segwit is good, but not everybody understands it even if they are even holding a significant amount of bitcoins. Any forks doesn't really guarantee that it would skyrocket to be honest.

This is a bit unreal to be calling for, for one you're going to be asking for the miners to fix something that they do want to fix though when you think about it they're only going to be seeking the money. With the current congestion in the market it's best for them to just sit back and reap in the profits of HIGH TX fees alongside the 12BTC which is given per block. Also, even if we were to see something like this be activated with the miners blessing I just can't see the price going that high, seems A BIT insane and I can't see buyers still being around in droves for that.

It's just a figure of speech.
Bitcoin is too big to grow 400% overnight, but it may grow that much in the months following successfull transition.

Nobody can really be certain that it would hit $10,000 overnight, but I'll argue the fact that a softfork will always be better than a hardfork. Not for the sake of an increase in price but for certainty that it will not crash any further.

I guess all we can do is wait for August 1st and see what happens. Fortune telling in all honor but nobody knows what will truly happen.

In what twisted imagination janitors are the engineers?

Sorry, you got it backwards, time to go study how the protocol works. Miners were never supposed to choose shit. Satoshi never predicted mining pools and the current state of things.

In any case, miners are incompetent and can't decide what is or isn't good for bitcoin because they aren't engineers. Any idiot, ANY, could have created their own mining empire if they were at the right moment doing the right thing, then it's just all scaling and scaling by investing gains on more mining software.

If segwit doesn't go in with BIP141, uncertainty will make the market crash, and those that dare to hardfork will be punished heavily.

It's very hard to predict the impact of some event on Bitcoins price. For example, when there was the halving last year, the price almost didn't change on that day, so maybe our recent price rise to $2500-$3000 was because of the possible segwit activation, and when it will get activated, the price won't change much. As for miners, they seem to try to strong-arm Bitcoin community into supporting their decisions, but in fact they don't have the real power, because they will always be mining whatever is the most profitable, and what coin it will be is decided by the market.

Of course a softfork is always prefer, we don't really want another ETH/ETC fiasco on our hands do we? Besides that's a pretty bad image that it will leave.

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Doesn't sound that it was a figure of speech, more of he was certain it would happen. I guess it "could" facilitate a growth by that much. But really, it is not something that could boost the prices by that much.

I would say that the best thing that could happen to bitcoins so that we could reach that price is that it gets mass adopted. Like most countries doing what japan did.

you are not completely right nor wrong.
miners and developers are both workers around here. but them having the power (the equipment and the coding power respectively) leads to belief that they are controlling bitcoin's future and it is not 100% wrong either. they both have a very potent effect.

but users or nodes should be the ones to make the decisions. the fact that they are not or there is still doubt among them doesn't change anything though.

and there is always ways to force the hands of miners.
and as much as i dislike these ways but they need to exist as the last resorts. ways such as UASF and changing of PoW.


he is not sure, he just loves creating this type of nonsense topics around here. i don't know if it is because of over excitement or wanting to hype things up :D
the fact is we don't know what is going to happen to the price. different routs might be taken to activate SegWit and each of them can lead to a very smooth and finally a high price or they can lead to very horrible and crashing price.

if they enable segwit they lose on fee, because everyone pay less, they will lose a very good amount of money on fee, and they don't want that, and it's not a given that segwith will increase the value, that is another gamble they don't want to take imho

Stop playing the stupid price games.

There is not enough BIP141 support for over half year, and nothing changed in this regard. But fortunately there is enought support for SegWit2x. So get ready for SegWit and 2M.

You can break Bitcoin in half only if many people and services wont support SegWit2x, because SegWit and 2M going to happen for sure. But except for few zealots, I dont see any significant services not accepting SegWit2x, thus at worst few hundred radical people going to create their altcoin (or just stop using Bitcoin).

The "simple" people are irrelevant in decentralized development if they are just "ideas man" that cannot get anything actually coded. Sure some people have no coding experience and are bright in game theory, have a good sense of intuition and are worth listening to, BUT ultimately the engineers are the ones that put the ideas into code. Miners don't even have any ideas that could translate well into code. What we are seeing is a fight for power, they do not care about scaling. They only want power, and they hate Core devs because they are the smart guys that actually get code done, and code that doesn't crash.

There's also the possibility the big miners are working with governments to kill bitcoin and they are benefiting from the damage.

I think we are currently in the largest virtual game of chicken known to man.

We are all speeding towards a solution yet everyone is being stubborn and acting like they are not going to accept it. I expect a last minute "swerve" to a scaling solution. It's in everyone's best interest to play hard ball at the moment, it's the art of negotiation.

When it comes down to it though, we all have the same goal... the longevity of bitcoin.

Nobody is supporting segwit2x, and these few that do, will pay for doing so. No big stakeholder in bitcoin is supporting the inferior code by Jeff Garzik. Nobody with a functional brain will risk their money by running unsafe, untested, rushed code. Anybody attempting to hardfork will suffer the consequences, just watch and see.

 pereira4 and billybob
there is no point you sing 2 accounts to say the same garbage
if all you care about is the bitcoin price then you are just FIAT lovers.
go check out litecoin.. the pools that pretended to support segwit are not even using it.. they are still using legacy tx's for their coinbase
you have no clue about how segwit works, what it cannot achieve or what it is suppose to achieve.
all you ever shout out is "activate=speculate"

everyone with brains knows that malicious users will continue spamming using legacy, so segwit solves nothing

its like trying to reduce gun kills in certain neighbourhoods by offering to voluntarily move everyone out of the neighbourhood into a gun free zone.
the only issues is.. the ones that dont have guns will move. but even then the ones without guns and never attempted to use guns still have to drive through and leave their parents in the gun ridden neighbourhood.
where the few now vacant apartments in the gun ridden neighbourhood does not really help overcrowding. nor does it solves the double spending drivebythugs who will continue to doublespend driveby(malle attack)

so stop your "activate for $10k speculation" and all your fake graphs and finger pointing.. atleast grasp logic and show something real and justified

Miners and merchants can still end up as heroes, by either simply signaling for BIP141 and clearing up the situation in the smoothest way, or signaling segwit2x, getting segwit in, then backing out from the NYC agreement nonsense and simply not run the segwit2x code. They can easily back out from the agreement and claim that the code is not safe, because the miners and merchants signed an agreement without the code being ready which was simply insane. So they can back out and have no legal consequences.

In fact, the way they can end up having legal consequences, is if they run segwit2x code, that's unsafe, and turns out in millions worth of customer losses.

Here is list of companies and individuals supporting SegWit2x
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77

Thats million of users using NYA services. Add to this list all other bigger exchanges outside the NYA group accepting SegWit2x as Bitcoin if activated before Aug 1.

The only ones facing any consequences are the few zealots ignoring the upcomming SegWit and 2M, you basically can identify them screaming at discussion boards with "SegWit is poison pill" or "hardfork going to kill Bitcoin"

Contentious hardfork into 2 bitcoins = disaster, everyone thinks bitcoin is a joke, massive price crash (only autists that dont live in the real world dont care about this), lack of confidence, bitcoin as store of value lost forever etc.

BIP141 = no hardfork, no 2 bitcoins, no disaster, bitcoin continues being a safe store of value.

It's as simple as that and you still don't get it after 100000 posts.

pereira4

wake up and stop spewing reddit scripts

even softforks can cause splits

trying to assume hardfork=split is the old debunked script of atleast 12 months ago. its time you updated your mantra..

consensus will keep things togther..
soft and hard is just about pool triggered alone (soft) or node and pool triggered(hard)

infact by having nodes part of it nodes are then ready to accept the data from pools so infact there are less chance of issues due to nodes existing to validated the data rather then just playing hot potato relaying data they cannot fully validate

maybe spend less time on reddit and more time reading code/running scenario's you will learn something

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core shot themselves in the foot with their clumsy pool only activation
yea they tried bribing pools. but pools care more about block acceptability to the network than they do about all-inclusive paid weekend parties.
the safest way to activate is a node consensus first pools consensus second.

and thats why 141 was not getting much growth, because pools know about the consensus/symbiotic relationship of the network

But believe me dude, its not about hard or soft fork, it is about the present status of bitcoin and awful fees. It is pretty sure activating any proposal will going to push up transactions speed and lower fees significantly.
So out of present proposals, Segiwt (BIP141) is best one. No matter where chains and split gotta go but it has become necessity for bitcoin.

You make an important statement here. I really hope the players are taking note. I however don't see a crash to 0 no matter the outcome. It might go lower, but will pick up in a few months.

activating segwit DOES NOTHING!!!

the whole fee/malle/spam/ promises is only achievable if (especially the malicious) users actually move funds to NEW KEYPAIRS AFTER activation..

the "activation" itself does NOTHING
however the 'promises' are about getting peoples funds over to new keypairs.. and then and only then POSSIBLY see benefit is only gonna happen if a good percentage of people spend their UTXO's and never use legacy tx's again

think about the bloat on the mempool if everyone tried moving their funds to new keypairs... with 55million UTXO's sat their on legacy keypairs

it not about activation.. its about keypairs.

which is where i laugh about litecoin, where even the pools advocating for segwit dont want to move their own funds to segwit keypairs.
its a total laugh..

segwit is an empty promise of social drama

Stupid janitors that you're talking about here are actually the engineers who gets to decide what path would the project take since they have large amounts of money at stake for the system to continue rolling. Also, I don't see why we need to rush activating BIP 141. All of those unconfirmed tx before was clearly an attack to "emphasize" why we "need" BIP141 on as soon as possible.

At this point, it is rather safe to assume that we won't have BIP141 activated since majority of hash power is supporting SegWit2x.
But hypothetically speaking, if we had sudden BIP141 activation and price would really rise to $10k overnight...
Do you really think it would be a new stable price of bitcoin? It will be the only brief surge of the market with immediate collapse after.

If the malicious users are miners trying to keep the fees high (quite possible) then a larger block size would not stop them at all.  Neither SegWit nor increased block sizes would do anything to someone with a lot of money to spend (or "invest") on spamming the network.

It was all indeed Roger Wu spam attack as well, and we don't even need segwit, but that is not the question. The narrative is not if we need segwit or not anymore, segwit is going in one way or another, and we all know that BIP141 is the least disruptive, less annoying way to get segwit in. A hardfork would be a disaster for holders that simply want to sit back and relax, because their holdings will suffer, a lot. Not to mention the mess of 2 chains.

The mistake of anyone supporting the hardfork is clear. At this point BIP141 is objectively speaking the best way to get through this mess.

You're expecting way too much of them though bud. There is no way that they would do anything but drum up more drama so they can farm as much value as they can off of the fees they get from transactions. If they didn't have the extra money flowing in then chances are they would be a lot more comfortable with pumping the value of something they ca already easily pull value from. Nowadays that isn't something that should be expected, at all really.

I partly agree with the soft fork scenario which is also quite amusing if activated however, sooner or later a hard fork would be inevitable since, well, intentions. At this point in time, many people would be torn in a dilemma; would it be their holdings that they would need to put at stake or the whole network and just pray that it pans out well? The activation of some good BIPs are clearly being stopped by politics in a "decentralized" network.

What the fuck? So one coin is going to crash to nothing and the other is going to crash 90%? Come on man, that's some pretty heavy doom and gloom. Either way we'll have segwit. Anyone is able to make a fork of bitcoins at any time. That's what a lot of altcoins are anyways.

btw, don't bash janitors. Sometimes it's a smart person who needed a job to feed their family.  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/05/columbia-university-janitor-graduates-with-honors/ (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/05/columbia-university-janitor-graduates-with-honors/)

The bad news is that the closer the deadline is, the slower the rate of signaling will be, and consensus will never be achieved. The good news is that there will be no forks over this, hard or soft. Instead, there will be technological solutions of limited scale that require no consensus -- miners, nodes, users will just come up with their own protocols and devices that other miners, nodes, and users will be free to use or not use. I would have thought that all this would be obvious by now.

So what do you guys think that will happen now? What is the most likely thing to dow ith three weeks left? How is there still nothing decided?

firstly CORE removed the fee controls and screamed "just pay more".. dont blame pools.
secondly 'miners' are just asic users..
what you need to be defining is malicious 'pools' that collate the data into blocks. not the miners which just hash out a hash and have no control of block content or fees..
miners and pools are separate functions of the symbiotic relationship of bitcoin

the main fee damaging tactics are those of the core developers with their new fee war pressure code, and pools only accepting the high fee's first.
(funnily enough its BTCC and other bscartel pools that do this more)


as for segwit which still relies on a 1mb base block(141) so the fight for space is not really reduced.(segwit keypairs dont just sit in witness without touching base)
...

personally the segwit2x is just as empty a hope as segwit1x(141) because as soon as the segwit aspect of segwit2x is activated (which actually activates segwit(141) early)

..the node count capable of accepting the 2xbaseblock part needs to happen for the 2x base to actually flourish within 3 months.. otherwise all that happens is segwit(141) and then mempool hell of everyone trying and failing to move funds to new keypairs as the bloat would cause many people waiting days and having to resend with higher fee's just to try getting funds into new keypairs.. (stats show months of mempool headaches as a minimum)

..
the real solution would have been a legacy4x and also limit txsigops to 4k or less forever to mitigate the 'linear v quadratic' crybabies.
 then without having to shift majority of funds to new keypairs, users will get more capacity.
other bloat code could be added to reduce the greed of allowing single users x% of blockspace
EG why does anyone need 100kb of blockspace for a single tx... thats just bloat causing greed.. that needs reducing/ making leaner

Ok. 


I decide now:




10k is great!

 ;D

did you even check the dates of the spam
june 2016 (core bip needed activating so they spammed to cause drama to rush it through)
october/november->  (core bip needed activating so they spammed to TRY(but fail to)cause drama to rush it through) thus they had to keep it going hoping time would be extra pressure..


pereira4 &billy.. you keep on pointing fingers in the wrong direction.. cant you atleast see your reddit scripts are old/unbacked up by stats/ and debunked and outdated.

:D :D :D

And that's based on which past events?
Ethereum forked and didn't need 3 years to recover, it actually pumped and botch chains are worth more than before the fork.
Litecoin activated segwit and is worth much more than before.

Stop making up shit and trying to scare people.

Nobody knows what will be with crypto, just wait until August and we will see who said the best rumor;)

Read the three pages of this thread and a lot of information of this 1 August thing and still i am confused of what will happen to bitcoin price after 1 August. Will August 1 will decide everything or maybe it will take a longer time ? Are we crossing 5000$ on that day or moving back to 1000$ ?

Antpool would benefit from spamming the network, for example, because they take the transaction fees.

The point is that any entity which receives transaction fees is incentivised to spam the network.  It could be a group of different major players who all reel in transaction fees.
This still doesn't refute my point, which is that neither of the "scaling solutions" proposed would actually make spam impractical. 

Even if you can say "an attacker would not use SegWit keypairs", you could also say "it doesn't bloody well matter whether they do, because it's pretty easy to spam the network in any of these situations".

141 was never, ever going to happen. 95% is a totally unrealistic figure, albeit appealing to the unworldly. There's enough miners who are completely uninformed about new developments to make up that 5%, let alone ones who don't want it.

Let's see if 148 amounts to anything. I get the impression that potential miners of it are supposed to remain stealthy until the vital moment.