Activation of segwit via BIP141 = $10,000 overnight

[cellard]

Stop playing the stupid price games.

There is not enough BIP141 support for over half year, and nothing changed in this regard. But fortunately there is enought support for SegWit2x. So get ready for SegWit and 2M.

You can break Bitcoin in half only if many people and services wont support SegWit2x, because SegWit and 2M going to happen for sure. But except for few zealots, I dont see any significant services not accepting SegWit2x, thus at worst few hundred radical people going to create their altcoin (or just stop using Bitcoin).

Nobody is supporting segwit2x, and these few that do, will pay for doing so. No big stakeholder in bitcoin is supporting the inferior code by Jeff Garzik. Nobody with a functional brain will risk their money by running unsafe, untested, rushed code. Anybody attempting to hardfork will suffer the consequences, just watch and see.

Miners and merchants can still end up as heroes, by either simply signaling for BIP141 and clearing up the situation in the smoothest way, or signaling segwit2x, getting segwit in, then backing out from the NYC agreement nonsense and simply not run the segwit2x code. They can easily back out from the agreement and claim that the code is not safe, because the miners and merchants signed an agreement without the code being ready which was simply insane. So they can back out and have no legal consequences.

In fact, the way they can end up having legal consequences, is if they run segwit2x code, that's unsafe, and turns out in millions worth of customer losses.

[Variogam]

Nobody is supporting segwit2x, and these few that do, will pay for doing so. No big stakeholder in bitcoin is supporting the inferior code by Jeff Garzik. Nobody with a functional brain will risk their money by running unsafe, untested, rushed code. Anybody attempting to hardfork will suffer the consequences, just watch and see.

Here is list of companies and individuals supporting SegWit2x
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77

Thats million of users using NYA services. Add to this list all other bigger exchanges outside the NYA group accepting SegWit2x as Bitcoin if activated before Aug 1.

The only ones facing any consequences are the few zealots ignoring the upcomming SegWit and 2M, you basically can identify them screaming at discussion boards with "SegWit is poison pill" or "hardfork going to kill Bitcoin"

[pereira4]

pereira4 and billybob
there is no point you sing 2 accounts to say the same garbage
if all you care about is the bitcoin price then you are just FIAT lovers.
go check out litecoin.. the pools that pretended to support segwit are not even using it.. they are still using legacy tx's for their coinbase
you have no clue about how segwit works, what it cannot achieve or what it is suppose to achieve.
all you ever shout out is "activate=speculate"

everyone with brains knows that malicious users will continue spamming using legacy, so segwit solves nothing

its like trying to reduce gun kills in certain neighbourhoods by offering to voluntarily move everyone out of the neighbourhood into a gun free zone.
the only issues is.. the ones that dont have guns will move. but even then the ones without guns and never attempted to use guns still have to drive through and leave their parents in the gun ridden neighbourhood.
where the few now vacant apartments in the gun ridden neighbourhood does not really help overcrowding. nor does it solves the double spending drivebythugs who will continue to doublespend driveby(malle attack)

so stop your "activate for $10k speculation" and all your fake graphs and finger pointing.. atleast grasp logic and show something real and justified

Contentious hardfork into 2 bitcoins = disaster, everyone thinks bitcoin is a joke, massive price crash (only autists that dont live in the real world dont care about this), lack of confidence, bitcoin as store of value lost forever etc.

BIP141 = no hardfork, no 2 bitcoins, no disaster, bitcoin continues being a safe store of value.

It's as simple as that and you still don't get it after 100000 posts.

[franky1]

pereira4

wake up and stop spewing reddit scripts

even softforks can cause splits

trying to assume hardfork=split is the old debunked script of atleast 12 months ago. its time you updated your mantra..

consensus will keep things togther..
soft and hard is just about pool triggered alone (soft) or node and pool triggered(hard)

infact by having nodes part of it nodes are then ready to accept the data from pools so infact there are less chance of issues due to nodes existing to validated the data rather then just playing hot potato relaying data they cannot fully validate

maybe spend less time on reddit and more time reading code/running scenario's you will learn something

core shot themselves in the foot with their clumsy pool only activation
yea they tried bribing pools. but pools care more about block acceptability to the network than they do about all-inclusive paid weekend parties.
the safest way to activate is a node consensus first pools consensus second.

and thats why 141 was not getting much growth, because pools know about the consensus/symbiotic relationship of the network

[bouren]

pereira4

wake up and stop spewing reddit scripts

even softforks can cause splits

trying to assume hardfork=split is the old debunked script of atleast 12 months ago. its time you updated your mantra..

consensus will keep things togther..
soft and hard is just about pool triggered alone (soft) or node and pool triggered(hard)

infact by having nodes part of it nodes are then ready to accept the data from pools so infact there are less chance of issues due to nodes existing to validated the data rather then just playing hot potato relaying data they cannot fully validate

maybe spend less time on reddit and more time reading code/running scenario's you will learn something

But believe me dude, its not about hard or soft fork, it is about the present status of bitcoin and awful fees. It is pretty sure activating any proposal will going to push up transactions speed and lower fees significantly.
So out of present proposals, Segiwt (BIP141) is best one. No matter where chains and split gotta go but it has become necessity for bitcoin.

[EthBooksPro]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

You make an important statement here. I really hope the players are taking note. I however don't see a crash to 0 no matter the outcome. It might go lower, but will pick up in a few months.

[franky1]

But believe me dude, its not about hard or soft fork, it is about the present status of bitcoin and awful fees. It is pretty sure activating any proposal will going to push up transactions speed and lower fees significantly.
So out of present proposals, Segiwt (BIP141) is best one. No matter where chains and split gotta go but it has become necessity for bitcoin.

activating segwit DOES NOTHING!!!

the whole fee/malle/spam/ promises is only achievable if (especially the malicious) users actually move funds to NEW KEYPAIRS AFTER activation..

the "activation" itself does NOTHING
however the 'promises' are about getting peoples funds over to new keypairs.. and then and only then POSSIBLY see benefit is only gonna happen if a good percentage of people spend their UTXO's and never use legacy tx's again

think about the bloat on the mempool if everyone tried moving their funds to new keypairs... with 55million UTXO's sat their on legacy keypairs

it not about activation.. its about keypairs.

which is where i laugh about litecoin, where even the pools advocating for segwit dont want to move their own funds to segwit keypairs.
its a total laugh..

segwit is an empty promise of social drama

[dothebeats]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

Stupid janitors that you're talking about here are actually the engineers who gets to decide what path would the project take since they have large amounts of money at stake for the system to continue rolling. Also, I don't see why we need to rush activating BIP 141. All of those unconfirmed tx before was clearly an attack to "emphasize" why we "need" BIP141 on as soon as possible.

[Slark]

At this point, it is rather safe to assume that we won't have BIP141 activated since majority of hash power is supporting SegWit2x.
But hypothetically speaking, if we had sudden BIP141 activation and price would really rise to $10k overnight...
Do you really think it would be a new stable price of bitcoin? It will be the only brief surge of the market with immediate collapse after.

[Xavofat]

But believe me dude, its not about hard or soft fork, it is about the present status of bitcoin and awful fees. It is pretty sure activating any proposal will going to push up transactions speed and lower fees significantly.
So out of present proposals, Segiwt (BIP141) is best one. No matter where chains and split gotta go but it has become necessity for bitcoin.

the whole fee/malle/spam/ promises is only achievable if (especially the malicious) users actually move funds to NEW KEYPAIRS AFTER activation..

If the malicious users are miners trying to keep the fees high (quite possible) then a larger block size would not stop them at all.  Neither SegWit nor increased block sizes would do anything to someone with a lot of money to spend (or "invest") on spamming the network.

[pereira4]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

Stupid janitors that you're talking about here are actually the engineers who gets to decide what path would the project take since they have large amounts of money at stake for the system to continue rolling. Also, I don't see why we need to rush activating BIP 141. All of those unconfirmed tx before was clearly an attack to "emphasize" why we "need" BIP141 on as soon as possible.

It was all indeed Roger Wu spam attack as well, and we don't even need segwit, but that is not the question. The narrative is not if we need segwit or not anymore, segwit is going in one way or another, and we all know that BIP141 is the least disruptive, less annoying way to get segwit in. A hardfork would be a disaster for holders that simply want to sit back and relax, because their holdings will suffer, a lot. Not to mention the mess of 2 chains.

The mistake of anyone supporting the hardfork is clear. At this point BIP141 is objectively speaking the best way to get through this mess.

[MingLee]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

You're expecting way too much of them though bud. There is no way that they would do anything but drum up more drama so they can farm as much value as they can off of the fees they get from transactions. If they didn't have the extra money flowing in then chances are they would be a lot more comfortable with pumping the value of something they ca already easily pull value from. Nowadays that isn't something that should be expected, at all really.

[dothebeats]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

Stupid janitors that you're talking about here are actually the engineers who gets to decide what path would the project take since they have large amounts of money at stake for the system to continue rolling. Also, I don't see why we need to rush activating BIP 141. All of those unconfirmed tx before was clearly an attack to "emphasize" why we "need" BIP141 on as soon as possible.

It was all indeed Roger Wu spam attack as well, and we don't even need segwit, but that is not the question. The narrative is not if we need segwit or not anymore, segwit is going in one way or another, and we all know that BIP141 is the least disruptive, less annoying way to get segwit in. A hardfork would be a disaster for holders that simply want to sit back and relax, because their holdings will suffer, a lot. Not to mention the mess of 2 chains.

The mistake of anyone supporting the hardfork is clear. At this point BIP141 is objectively speaking the best way to get through this mess.

I partly agree with the soft fork scenario which is also quite amusing if activated however, sooner or later a hard fork would be inevitable since, well, intentions. At this point in time, many people would be torn in a dilemma; would it be their holdings that they would need to put at stake or the whole network and just pray that it pans out well? The activation of some good BIPs are clearly being stopped by politics in a "decentralized" network.

[U2]

If miners stop playing stupid games and really want the best for bitcoin, they would stop stomping on the hardfork drums of war, and they would activate BIP141 as they have been told by everyone worth listening to in the space. But what happens when you give stupid janitors the ability to vote on engineering matters? that they will don't do the right thing.

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

Your choice.

What the fuck? So one coin is going to crash to nothing and the other is going to crash 90%? Come on man, that's some pretty heavy doom and gloom. Either way we'll have segwit. Anyone is able to make a fork of bitcoins at any time. That's what a lot of altcoins are anyways.

btw, don't bash janitors. Sometimes it's a smart person who needed a job to feed their family.  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/05/columbia-university-janitor-graduates-with-honors/

[Uberse]

The bad news is that the closer the deadline is, the slower the rate of signaling will be, and consensus will never be achieved. The good news is that there will be no forks over this, hard or soft. Instead, there will be technological solutions of limited scale that require no consensus -- miners, nodes, users will just come up with their own protocols and devices that other miners, nodes, and users will be free to use or not use. I would have thought that all this would be obvious by now.

[LostWords]

So what do you guys think that will happen now? What is the most likely thing to dow ith three weeks left? How is there still nothing decided?

[franky1]

the whole fee/malle/spam/ promises is only achievable if (especially the malicious) users actually move funds to NEW KEYPAIRS AFTER activation..

If the malicious users are miners trying to keep the fees high (quite possible) then a larger block size would not stop them at all.  Neither SegWit nor increased block sizes would do anything to someone with a lot of money to spend (or "invest") on spamming the network.

firstly CORE removed the fee controls and screamed "just pay more".. dont blame pools.
secondly 'miners' are just asic users..
what you need to be defining is malicious 'pools' that collate the data into blocks. not the miners which just hash out a hash and have no control of block content or fees..
miners and pools are separate functions of the symbiotic relationship of bitcoin

the main fee damaging tactics are those of the core developers with their new fee war pressure code, and pools only accepting the high fee's first.
(funnily enough its BTCC and other bscartel pools that do this more)


as for segwit which still relies on a 1mb base block(141) so the fight for space is not really reduced.(segwit keypairs dont just sit in witness without touching base)
...

personally the segwit2x is just as empty a hope as segwit1x(141) because as soon as the segwit aspect of segwit2x is activated (which actually activates segwit(141) early)

..the node count capable of accepting the 2xbaseblock part needs to happen for the 2x base to actually flourish within 3 months.. otherwise all that happens is segwit(141) and then mempool hell of everyone trying and failing to move funds to new keypairs as the bloat would cause many people waiting days and having to resend with higher fee's just to try getting funds into new keypairs.. (stats show months of mempool headaches as a minimum)

..
the real solution would have been a legacy4x and also limit txsigops to 4k or less forever to mitigate the 'linear v quadratic' crybabies.
 then without having to shift majority of funds to new keypairs, users will get more capacity.
other bloat code could be added to reduce the greed of allowing single users x% of blockspace
EG why does anyone need 100kb of blockspace for a single tx... thats just bloat causing greed.. that needs reducing/ making leaner

[hv_]

So what do you guys think that will happen now? What is the most likely thing to dow ith three weeks left? How is there still nothing decided?

Ok. 


I decide now:




10k is great!

 

[franky1]

It was all indeed Roger Wu spam attack as well,

did you even check the dates of the spam
june 2016 (core bip needed activating so they spammed to cause drama to rush it through)
october/november->  (core bip needed activating so they spammed to TRY(but fail to)cause drama to rush it through) thus they had to keep it going hoping time would be extra pressure..


pereira4 &billy.. you keep on pointing fingers in the wrong direction.. cant you atleast see your reddit scripts are old/unbacked up by stats/ and debunked and outdated.

[pixie85]

Enable segwit with no stupid hardfork drama, and see bitcoin skyrocket.

Break bitcoin in half, see the price crash, and see everyone involved in the forked chain going bankrupt, with the price going to 0 on Forkcoin, and with Bitcoin crashing but going back 3 years in price and taking another 3 years to recover.

And that's based on which past events?
Ethereum forked and didn't need 3 years to recover, it actually pumped and botch chains are worth more than before the fork.
Litecoin activated segwit and is worth much more than before.

Stop making up shit and trying to scare people.