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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: Vladimir on June 20, 2011, 08:55:20 PM



Title: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Vladimir on June 20, 2011, 08:55:20 PM
We shall set up a rota so that an exchange is hacked (voluntarily, as a public service) every week. Great for publicity.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: SgtSpike on June 20, 2011, 08:58:45 PM
Agreed.  ^.^


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
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Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: TraderTimm on June 20, 2011, 09:04:29 PM
Hah, like a bitcoin "lottery" for whitehats.

You are right though Vladimir, prices haven't collapsed as all the fear-mongers said.

Tradehill Bid/Offer: 13.77/14.75

Last: 14.75

Heck, could even get to parity with the Mt.Gox last of 17.50 before they open...


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: fornit on June 20, 2011, 09:08:12 PM
still, getting to 50$ at the end of the month mgiht be a little hard now. thats a disappointment. on the other hand, a rally is much sweeter when unexpected  ;D


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: lemonginger on June 20, 2011, 09:09:59 PM
mt gox hasn't even reopened yet. We will almost definitely be back down into single digits when they do. Not saying that is a bad thing, just that the price implications of this arent known yet.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Jaime Frontero on June 20, 2011, 09:11:29 PM
the rage of the trolls is paid for.

the rage of those who were unaffected is meaningless.

the rage of those who were affected is... well... hmmm.  they don't seem to be enraged.  i suppose because there doesn't appear to be that large an impact.

as you imply, vladimir - no such thing as bad publicity.

and it's all good for bringing in some beefed-up security.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Synaptic on June 20, 2011, 09:13:08 PM
the rage of the trolls is paid for.

the rage of those who were unaffected is meaningless.

the rage of those who were affected is... well... hmmm.  they don't seem to be enraged.  i suppose because there doesn't appear to be that large an impact.

as you imply, vladimir - no such thing as bad publicity.

and it's all good for bringing in some beefed-up security.

Amen.

I for one am PUMPED, gonna make a huge profit from all these small scared fish.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Desu on June 20, 2011, 09:15:10 PM
Bitmarket USD. is $16.25


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: epii on June 20, 2011, 09:19:35 PM
+1 Vladimir

I predict there will be some chaos when Mt. Gox reopens, because a large fraction of all actively circulated bitcoins are caught up in their servers.  However, the price is the price - the consensus of the markets that, at this point in time, 1 BTC is worth roughly $14 or $15, is in fact a consensus of users that this is the correct valuation.  There's no reason why this evaluation would change depending on whether or not Mt. Gox is open - the only issue with the reopening is that the flood of liquidity could spook some traders for a day or two.  But the fact that the price has held more or less steady through this crisis tells me that Bitcoin is more stable than even the optimists could have predicted.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Bit_Happy on June 20, 2011, 09:20:36 PM
A temporary fall back to ~10.25 (or even a 'new low' of ~6.75 to 7.5, which matches an old trading range) is easy to predict, will you be buying or panic-selling?
The drama continues, stay tuned...


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Vladimir on June 20, 2011, 09:24:20 PM
will you be buying or panic-selling?

We will be watching...


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: mandros on June 20, 2011, 09:33:27 PM
+1 Vladimir

I predict there will be some chaos when Mt. Gox reopens, because a large fraction of all actively circulated bitcoins are caught up in their servers.  However, the price is the price - the consensus of the markets that, at this point in time, 1 BTC is worth roughly $14 or $15, is in fact a consensus of users that this is the correct valuation.  There's no reason why this evaluation would change depending on whether or not Mt. Gox is open - the only issue with the reopening is that the flood of liquidity could spook some traders for a day or two.  But the fact that the price has held more or less steady through this crisis tells me that Bitcoin is more stable than even the optimists could have predicted.

Right now selling a little more than 1.000 coins worth it roughly $1.000 on TradeHill would half the price to $6.5 per bitcoin.

I think TradeHill has too small volume to draw conclusions on it. When all Mt Gox users get their money back and their coins back we'll see how they react.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: epii on June 20, 2011, 09:34:04 PM
will you be buying or panic-selling?
I plan to be panic-buying, panic-selling, and panic-dancing-around-naked.  It will be a fun day.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Gandlaf on June 20, 2011, 09:37:59 PM
A temporary fall back to ~10.25 (or even a 'new low' of ~6.75 to 7.5, which matches an old trading range) is easy to predict, will you be buying or panic-selling?
The drama continues, stay tuned...

It might even work out in a completely different way. Whilst quite a few people now probably have doubts about the exchanges, especially MtGox, I have seen very few comments doubting the security of Bitcoins themselves.
So (ironically?) this scare may actually lead to a rise in Bitcoins. Why? The fastest way to get money out of MtGox is via Bitcoins!
My strategy will be to buy BTC as soon as MtGox reopens, cash them out to my wallet and then wait and see how things work out.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: epii on June 20, 2011, 09:38:25 PM
+1 Vladimir

I predict there will be some chaos when Mt. Gox reopens, because a large fraction of all actively circulated bitcoins are caught up in their servers.  However, the price is the price - the consensus of the markets that, at this point in time, 1 BTC is worth roughly $14 or $15, is in fact a consensus of users that this is the correct valuation.  There's no reason why this evaluation would change depending on whether or not Mt. Gox is open - the only issue with the reopening is that the flood of liquidity could spook some traders for a day or two.  But the fact that the price has held more or less steady through this crisis tells me that Bitcoin is more stable than even the optimists could have predicted.

Right now selling a little more than 1.000 coins worth it roughly $1.000 on TradeHill would half the price to $6.5 per bitcoin.

I think TradeHill has too small volume to draw conclusions on it. When all Mt Gox users get their money back and their coins back we'll see how they react.

Well, I'm judging based on TradeHill, Britcoin, Bitmarket, Bitcoin7, Bitomat and Bitcoin2Cash.  This is what I meant by "consensus of the markets".  The psychology of traders worldwide seems to be in agreement as to the correct price of Bitcoins at the current time.  I gauge the fact that the volume of all of these markets combined is less than 1/10th of Mt. Gox's to be largely irrelevant, but I could very well be proven wrong.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: imperi on June 20, 2011, 09:39:02 PM
My prediction:

There will be no fallback, or at most a few dollars. So essentially none.

Prices will stay above $14 for the entire day.

If I'm right, I'm going to quote myself and laugh at all the retards who think it will go to single digits.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Synaptic on June 20, 2011, 09:40:39 PM
My prediction:

There will be no fallback.

Prices will stay above $14 for the entire day.

If I'm right, I'm going to quote myself and laugh at all the retards who think it will go to single digits.

I actually think you're totally correct.

But it's not going to be organic price stability.

It's going to be other big players keeping their little pump and dump looking inviting for a little while longer.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: AtomicTrader on June 20, 2011, 10:05:18 PM
I think this attack on Mt.Gox was a reality check. People's valuation of BTC will be lower as a result. Single digits is not unreasonable.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: SlaveInDebt on June 20, 2011, 10:10:59 PM
Where will BTC be in the coming week.
Relevant poll
http://i53.tinypic.com/2pt1cog.jpg


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: epii on June 20, 2011, 10:12:07 PM
I think this attack on Mt.Gox was a reality check. People's valuation of BTC will be lower as a result. Single digits is not unreasonable.
This is entirely true.  I think what Vladimir's point out is the incredible reality that, in spite of the fact that single digits would be totally reasonable, it hasn't happened that way.  The reality check has come and gone, and yet the loss of value has been minimal.  There are no forces remaining to shock the price lower than it has already gone, except for the flood of liquidity once Mt. Gox reopens, which doesn't really have anything to do with the "reality check".

Unless it's the case that all of the traders who have been transformed into bears by this incident have been unable to trade because they were Mt. Gox users.  In that case, the reopening may bring not only a flood of liquidity, but also a flood of bearishness.

However things happen, this is going to be fun to watch for those of us without much to lose.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Gandlaf on June 20, 2011, 10:13:56 PM
Does anyone still remember how MtGox handled the last situation where there was a large amount at stake for MtGox?

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.0 (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.0)

That guy explained himself, was hounded by the community, MtGox barely bothered to respond, made some outlandish claims, froze funds and rapidly moved the whole operation to a different jurisdiction (Japan) after the guy finaly decided to get lawyers involved.

MtGox promised to inform the community! No news yet, and itīs been 6 months!

Edit: Sorry wrong thread, posted here by mistake.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: epii on June 20, 2011, 10:26:46 PM
Does anyone still remember how MtGox handled the last situation where there was a large amount at stake for MtGox?

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.0 (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.0)

That guy explained himself, was hounded by the community, MtGox barely bothered to respond, made some outlandish claims, froze funds and rapidly moved the whole operation to a different jurisdiction (Japan) after the guy finaly decided to get lawyers involved.

MtGox promised to inform the community! No news yet, and itīs been 6 months!
It's a controversial incident and I don't claim to have all the facts, but for the sake of cutting through the FUD... it's actually only been three months since Mt. Gox commented on this:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.msg57901#msg57901
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3712.msg62282#msg62282

The last comment was that they couldn't say anything more because it might go to trial.  This will be satisfactory for some people and not for others, but there is no clear evidence that they ever behaved unprofessionally.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: done on June 20, 2011, 10:42:00 PM
Just buy and hold. If the price drops more then buy more and hold. Good luck men.


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Bit_Happy on June 20, 2011, 10:49:54 PM
will you be buying or panic-selling?
I plan to be panic-buying, panic-selling, and panic-dancing-around-naked.  It will be a fun day.

Enjoy.   :D


Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: Vladimir on June 23, 2011, 09:58:01 AM
It appears that, unlike "mainstream press" shills, the market still thinks that mtgox episode is irrelevant. All 3 other exchanges with any noticeable volume, namely bitomat, trade hill and britcoin steadily trading at pre "mtgox crash" levels all 3 with good balance of bids and asks.

Kudos to Poles for being immune to BS and continuing trading without any breaks as if nothing has happened.

Once/if mtgox goes online there probably will be a pop in bitcoin valuation due to all the small traders converting fiat to bitcoin and getting it out ASAP.

I already feel like I am a personage of a cyberpank novel and this is just a prologue...



Title: Re: All this rage and BTC valuation is almost back where it was before the event.
Post by: marcus_of_augustus on June 23, 2011, 10:35:33 AM

I already feel like I am a personage of a cyberpank novel and this is just a prologue...


... sure it is not just the mauve sunglasses that's clouding your vision? ... 

.... got some interesting times ahead of us, for sure  :D