Bitcoin Forum

Sorry, if this question is asked here before,but i feel that the cryptocurrency "industry" is pretty much like
internet companies back in 1997-2001.Too much optimism and no regulations.
2017 has been an awesome year for all the cryptocurrencies and all the ICOs and more and more people are buying tokens.What do we need for the next big crash?(This question sounds stupid,i know. ;D)
Some big exchange platform hacked,or some major ICO failure?
I don`t want a big crash to happen,but we have to be prepared,anyway.

You are not wrong, particularly about the ICO craze. I'm pretty sure most will lose money on those, though perhaps one or two ICOs will be profitable.

What are your guys' thoughts if someone were to say "a crash is not all that bad"?

If a crytpo-crash occurred there could be a bunch of garbage tokens getting knocked out and then the benefiical tokens can emerge. Would it not be unlike the dot-com crash? Although there was some garbage and over-valued stocks in the late 1990s, there were some of today's leading companies in there as well that emerged. Apple and Microsoft existed in the late 90s.

Some garbage and over-valued stocks in the late 1990s? Most of them! The only noteworthy survivor of the dot-com bubble itself is probably Google. Amazon and especially Apple and Microsoft already existed way before the dot-com bubble reared its ugly face.

But yes, once the ICO market corrects, crypto will be all the better for it. Just like the current exchange ecosystem rose from the ashes that were MtGox.

What it will take for ICOs to crash? Just... time. Most ICOs will fail to deliver. Of those that deliver, only few will be successful. And those few successful, will probably take much longer than many people are willing to hold.

Don't forget Amazon  ::)  There is no doubt the current ICO environment is like the wild west, but hype does not seem to have given way to hysteria yet: the sheer scope of the dot com bubble dwarfs what has been happening in the crypto space. If this is going to be another dot com bubble hold onto your seats because we have a long way to go.

Personally, I am encouraged every time we have micro-corrections: these hacks and instabilities keep people sober, which is important to allow the technology to mature. I am also encouraged by the extreme transparency and community-driven approach to investment – unlike the days of dot-com, the internet is facilitating awesome information-sharing between investors, hopefully preventing the most egregious scams from being profitable for those carrying them out.

There is a lot of amazing innovation coming in the crypto space: we have been working on some projects for quite a while and the current ICO environment may be the best way to speed up their development. The best part of ICOs is that in addition to investment, an ICO gives a community of initial users and immediate utility for the token / platform.

To give you an idea of the scale, through the dot com crash in 2000-2001, over $5T (that's *trillion*) of value was wiped off the global markets. Current market cap of all crypto combined just recently passed $150B.

However the bad habits of investing without paying attention to the soundness of the underlying fundamentals (business model, team, industry dynamics, company structure) will 100% end badly – it is in the community's interest to develop and get behind quality standards and transparency best practices for ICOs.

This is quite ironic, actually. Bitcoin and the blockchain technology herald a new era of decentralization away from the control of the government hands and power. Now, we find a way to make crowdfunding get so popular with the introduction of ICOs. Of course, since we are decentralized we could not expect regulations to be in place and it is also hard to establish self-regulation for that matter.

We dreamed of deregulation and decentralization yet at the same time we are crying that ICOs have to be regulated. Why? It is all about human nature. We are all greedy and we are always thinking of the money we can get. This is true with many of the ICOs we can find in the market right now. Of course, some popular ICOs are really good but many are not.

I want decentralization and less regulation but for ICOs there has to be rules we have to follow and standards need to establish. The question and this is BIG: who should supervise and approve ICOs?

To tell you the truth I still holding a few shares of dot com remnants stash somewhere in my vault. Hah, I still remember those those, specially stock splitting, just called my broker and I can got 10K in an instant if I want to. Sadly when it burst, I wasn't able to get out because I'm working on that company. And you wouldn't believed that what the price back in 2002 is still the same as today's price. I was trap, nevertheless I ill just hold on it, nothing to lose on my end.


Only time will tell really, and I think this will be healthy I guess so that we can really filter which ICO's are worthy to invest so that the money can really be channel to the one that will be successful and not just garbage ICO's around that just scam the unsuspected.

Yes, the smart move right now regarding ICOs is most likely to wait for the dust to settle and see which companies prevails. It also has the side effect that after these 2-3 years the market will be way less hyped and have saner price levels, which means you could actually get good value for your investment and not just a pump-and-dump lottery ticket.

There may be a diamond in the rough somewhere in this pile of semi-thought-out vaporware, but I honestly don't want to waste my time shifting through meaningless whitepapers that only aim to daze potential investors with buzzwords and crypto-babble. I'll gladly let the market filter out the companies that weren't worth looking into in the first place.

How do you think the BTC price should be regulated? The only thing that I've seen is a governmental restrictions on using cryptocurrencies. imho this can't be called a regulation. Also everyone knows that sometimes BTC makes a bubble so if for example  the price will drop to 3k USD for 1 BTC it will be nothing but a correction whitch also is not a crash.

Yes, there is too much optimism in the crypto industry but unlike dot com overvalued stocks there is huge scope for actual usage of Bitcoins or alt-coins and optimism is based on the same possible scope of utilization value. Bitcoin is offering a practical solution to the problem of time-consuming/costly fund transfer and developers are working to reduce fees so that it will be less costly for micro transactions. This is a fundamental characteristic of Bitcoin which makes it different from others concepts.

Things like this are surely bound to happen whether now or in the future and there is really nothing anyone can do about it. On the issue of ICOs, a lot of people will win, while some will equally lose but what I see as an important factor here is to decide which side you want to belong to by evaluating all options correctly before decides which one to go with. In all this, a lot is bound to happen and a new future has been open unto us to decide how we all want to feature in it.

This may well be a bubble, but it's absolutely nowhere near the dotcom bubble. It'll be a footnote in history compared to that.

The dotcom bubble sucked in an army of institutional investors, funds and private individuals. At present crypto has barely sniffed a cent of the real money out there. It's still the province of outliers and weirdos despite the noise.

As for the original question, I'd say USDT's dollar backing being properly questioned, tested and failing would be the catalyst for a monster of a fall. That's underpinned Bitcoin's rise and the alt bubble and it was put together by a bunch of ramshackle blaggers with a track record of concealment.

The good news is, when the ICO bubble-useless altcoin bubble of tokens bursts, it's going to be great for bitcoin because all of that wealth in useless tokens is going to go back to BTC. It's not like all of a sudden everyone isn't going to invest on crypto again, it will just be more focused on actual useful tokens rather than useless speculative crap.

But I don't think we are anywhere near a legit bubble yet.

In term of the size, the difference is too much so i guess this is not a bubble yet. Crypto is not like the overrated stock from the dot com bubble because it really can change how things work. If crypto is going to be a bubble, then surely it is not now.

Exchangers have been hacked already and everybody know that the part of ICOs is clear scam. I suppose for big crash it is necessary to prove that some big terracts were financing with crypto-currencies. Countries with high terroristic activity will ban bitcoin immediately.

Crypto in general will be fine, the ICO tokens are a different story. "It can really change how things work" is exactly what everyone else thought during the dot-com boom before the bubble burst.

Problem being, changing how things work requires 1) a problem worth solving 2) in a way that is actually viable 3) with an actual product that is more than just hypothetics and buzzwords.



Terror organizations such as the IS are still funded in fiat, not crypto. The terror acts themselves don't need much in terms of money, just willing fundamentalists.

Blockchain/crypto/distributed networks/computing are too esoteric and specialized for there to be much of a tech bubble. At least in terms of software engineering/development. Its not like the dotcom bubble where anyone with a basic comprehension of IT could be involved and have a chance to hustle their way into the industry.

The ICO and investment areas could become oversaturated with toxic assets that could devalue the brand name of bitcoin/crypto over the long term. I don't know if that could become overvalued to where it will become a bubble. I think a lot of people have already lost faith in ethereum and many may not have much faith or confidence in ICO's. To be a true bubble they may need more demand/confidence/faith to fuel the degree to which they're overvalued.

Funny thing you're mentioning this 'bubble'.

I remember talking 2 years ago with some friends of mine about bitcoin, when the price was $300, after falling from 1000+$. They told me that the 'bubble' is over, but I guess they're proven wrong.

I don't think bitcoin is over at all. It isn't even a bubble.

There is no way to know but almost 8/10 are scam coin or failure and only 2 are success and legit..
For me its not my priority to invest because you can lose a lot in ICO's better to invest in altcoin which is already in good rankings and already stay long in the market so that you can only be waste your time for waiting because the movement of the price is not the same as ICO new releases in the market..
But the risk are really safe than ICO's
I am also wanted to be always prepared but there is no way..

Might be handy to check stock charts of Google, Microsoft and others. They had their max not long before collapse of dot-com bubble. But, anyway who cares if they have their product now and then. The same case is with BTC and others, if they collapse I would not care much. We will make money anyway, new industry established.

I was reading an article here on the forum that only 2% of ICOs are profitable and 10% of them is a scam of clear water. I was searching carefully an ICO to invest and for now those results that I have from this investment satisfy me totally.
I doubt that some super fake ICO or hacking can finish Bitcoin and everything about it. I think only forbidding of crypto-currencies on the government level, admiring it as illegal can crash bitcoin in the mass sense, but I suppose then Bitcoin will just go in the deep internet.

there is a huge ICO bubble . Yes there are a lot of ICO fails in these days. Its not a surprise. Its just investing is stocks. If you invest in a loser company in stocks its same.
You have to research before investing your money. There are utopic ICO's and meaningfull ico's. If a large ICO fail happens then you can see a nice price drop for ICO based currencies such as ETH

On the other hand this will not be a big effect on btc price.

Google wasn't even publicly traded yet, also the companies that prevailed such as Microsoft already had working products before the bubble :)

Check how Pets.com's stock went for a more apt comparison to the current ICO situation. With gambles like that the only way to make money is to either run an ICO yourself or knowing when to jump ship.

Yes, there is a bubble building up, due to the inflation of expectations for the coins, and all the ICOs coming to the market. And surely, many will fail, other succeed with insane payoffs. I don't think we are anywhere near that peak however, but overall I believe the market will self-correct.

I don't think we could place the dotcom bubble on the same footing as Bitcoin

They have many common features, of course, but there are still quite a few differences as well. First of all, people invested in dotcoms since they expected them to be a real deal, i.e. they hoped that in some time all these new hi-tech companies would start producing real value as innovative goods and services. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a purely speculative asset, and people investing in it simply hope that it will rise in value due to expanding speculation. If it doesn't, this is not something which they don't quite expect. That seems to be a major difference, i.e. no lies and thus no false hopes about the stuff people do

A crash can happen every time. At the moment we have each day many different icos, some icos for real project and other only to collect money from blind people.
Nevertheless bitcoin can reach the 10k at the end of year or the 0. We will see

I think all of those that think of most ICOs in that way are correct, but you must not forget that the dot com bubble also gave to use giants like Google and Amazon so if you want to invest in ICOs you need to find the few coins that have all the necessary ingredients to succeed, in a way the ICO craze is no different than the stock market there are very valuable stocks and there are stocks that are worth nothing.

in fact, all the predictions are an ungrateful topic and I think that it is impossible to foresee what lies ahead of us. Of course, another fork can give or sleep or another growth. The fact that we see the price value of the next Bitcoin double after August 1, then its price began to fall and Bitcoin in this light begins to grow well.

Yes, you're right. My mistake with Google's stocks!

The thing I wanted to say, we should not care much about noises and the hype around blockchain and crypto currencies.

Better focus on our skills and projects.

It depends what you mean by a "big crash," I think. There are at least 10 relatively decent-size cryptocurrency markets with billions of dollars flowing through each. Any one could crash, of course, since they're all based on the coin's popularity and a coin losing popularity and causing panic sales would be a self-fulfilling prophecy; it wouldn't take many days of 10% losses for bitcoin to fall precipitously, as precipitously as the rise after the fork drama. Of course, if that happens there is a decent chance of that money being reinvested into other cryptocurrencies, since a lot of people have probably already recouped their initial investments and are now in pure profit. A lot of people who bought near the top would walk away feeling very bitter about the whole experience, but a lot more who made their money back and even profited some would be quite willing to invest in more crypto with those profits, and speculate on catching the next big one.

As far as ICOs, there are a lot of them and a lot of them will undoubtedly crash, just like most penny stocks. This is not news, and should not disturb any investors who know what investing is about. Speculation that something will be the next big new thing is always dangerous, just ask the people who held on to Betamax stocks because they were certain that it was the next big thing. If you can find any who will still admit it, anyway.

With BTC, I agree. Its apples and oranges if you compare real cryptocurrencies with the tech stocks of the dotcom boom. But what about the ICO projects that have been run like real companies, with all the offices, CEOs and the funding? For me they look more the same with the pump and dumps of the tech bubble.

Okay, ICO's look more like the dot-com era ventures

On the other hand (just playing devil's advocate here), many dotcoms back then might have actually tried to make it but failed in the end, while what we see today seems to be more like deliberate scam attempts. Indeed, there should have been dotcoms that had never meant anything real right from the start, but the percentage should be significantly lower back in the day than it is nowadays. In a sense, people were more idealistic in late 1990's early 2000's, both investors and entrepreneurs alike. Investors weren't as greedy and cynical as they are today while entrepreneurs weren't as fishy and scammy

There is a big difference between the dot-com bubble and altcoins. Back then most financial magazines,papers and investment companies were pushing the investment potential of these stocks and funds. The result was millions of funds pouring in but the companies themselves did not make any profits. Now the knowledge base is between those who are aware of the products and understand the reasons behind the project. Gullible investors are not being targeted by commission hungry salesmen in financial adverts.

Actually if we see crash as a beneficial-event that will take place later on, With this bunch of icos then we will see what ICOs are really supported and have a lot of potential, but on the other hand chances on crashing is very high, ICOs that might survive this bubble is the one who is really supported. People are now smart and if we think on that way, investors know to research on what ICOs are profitable, has a lot of potential and has the company or organization that is financing or backing up that ICO.

Yeah I kind of fear this as well, there has to be some point where everyone asks themselves what it actually is that is so valuable. That's why I try to regard the value that I currently have in my portfolio as a nice to have, not so much something to rely on. The real world applications are not really there yet I think, despite many initiatives ongoing ofcourse. There will probably be a collapse at some point, but everyone understands that this tech is the future.

You just have to be prepared that when the actual collapse happens, you don't panic sell and just wait it out. Same with 'normal' stocks.

I wouldn't be so sure about the late 1990's being more idealistic and less greedy, but you pointed out an important factor: Deliberate scam attempts.

During the dot-com bubble the problem has huge overvaluations of companies with little to show for. With ICOs you have more of the same, with the added risk of scams attempts. Usually the latter would get filtered out early by regulations and a market of more experienced investors, but with ICOs you have neither in place. But maybe that's just my cynicism talking.



Gullible investors may not be targeted by hungry salesmen anymore, but they are still targeted with meaningless whitepapers, buzzwords and cookie-cutter fancy websites. I also doubt that the knowledge base has gotten much better since back then. Sure, people probably spend more time reading up on each project, but that's of little use without understanding the surrounding market, the underlying technologies and subsequently the challenges to be faced. The result is still the same: millions of funds poured into projects that do not make any profits.

It's not that internet companies have failed, they have evolved with time.
Same will happen with cryptos, though traditional coin may die, blockchain technology will evolve.

Maybe, I should have said more patient

Look, now we see coins (Bitcoin and altcoins alike) making dozen percentages of growth weekly if not daily (giving a new meaning to the old adages like "from rags to riches" and "from zero to hero"), while people no longer want to wait for a couple of years until they see visible returns from their investments. Quite naturally, it looks more like they have become more greedy and want quick profits, which is quite understandable

Ah yes, that's true. Impatient is a very fitting description of the modern crypto investor.

Both traditional and crypto investors are greedy in wanting big profits, but crypto investors want them now while traditional investors are used to slower paced markets. To be fair, traditional markets are indeed quite boring compared to crypto, even during times of major growth and corrections.

That's definitely my take on the huge ICO craze; people are buying into businesses that basically don't exist because they like the fact that the initial offering is crytopcurrency-based. The people selling these definitely aren't licensed investment advisers at this point. In fact, they're still prohibited from suggesting that their customers invest in cryptocurrencies; when I invested in bitcoin I mentioned it to my financial adviser and he was quite interested, enough that we had an hour-long conversation about it. He's invested in it a little bit himself, but whether he wanted to or not it would have been illegal for him to suggest to me that I invest in something that's not a legally-sanctioned security or something similarly licensed and regulated. The bubble aspect of it isn't going to stop me, of course, but it's going to limit how much actual cost basis I have at any given time. If the trends continue it should be quite possible to build up a larger stock of cryptocurrencies by ordering miners with previously-acquired coins, and the coins acquired will continue to appreciate until we all end up with bubble gum all over our faces. That should give plenty of opportunities for profit with very little initial investment if you play your cards right and make sure to know what you're investing in, and the alternatives and challenges, before you jump in. Sound advice on any investment market, of course, but even more essential with cryptocurrency. Don't be one of the people who bought the Useless Ethereum Token without knowing what it was, no matter how much of a jump in value it's taken since it was first introduced as being the most useless piece of vaporware to ever hit the market. :P

I tend to agree with OP's opinion on this one.  I also think this
market we're in resemble the precious metals market leading
up to 2011.  New money started pouring in just before silver
hit $50, and then it all crashed.  A lot of the sentiment I see on
this board is very similar (buy at any price, it can only go up, etc.)
Time will tell.

Dot.com and crypto is diffrent by my opinion,we have crashes almost every day on some shitico and shitcoins,in a case of shitcoins devs are developing new shitcoin i guess same happen with icp's with much more money,but few ico's wil bring his investors nice incomees and will disrupt industry

Altcoins and ICO's will crash when more and more people will develop technical undesrtanding of cryptocurrencies, which will lead to the conclusion that most introduced coins are just worthless clones. Even now a lot of investors buy coins not because their believe in their tech, but because they expect some quick and big pump. I don't think that this bubble will negatively affect Bitcoin, since there's nothing wrong with it - in fact it's the best coin because it has the most competent developers. And this is why it's not recommended to hodl a lot of different alts long term.

I agree that all this thing regarding cryptocurrency is like a dot-com buuble.  Pure speculation and no regulation,  though I believe regulation will be implemented soon on ICO's since SEC are getting aware of some bad people exploiting this ICO thing.

 
They are almost the same since the market behave almost the same when it was an early years of internet.  There are lots of people investing on it and the price of it fluctuates and some poor planned start-up failed just like the shitcoins of cryptocurrency.

Im sure were also lots of IPO scams during the dotcom bubble. If you try to research about pink sheets securites, many of them were scams. Until today, the same type of scammers do the same con jobs. In the world of cryptocurrencies however, it has made scamming easier to do, thats why theres more of them in ratio when compared to IPO scams.

The great thing about unregulated spaces is that it gives great freedom and empowers people that seeking to do both good and bad.
When you start to regulate it, you start screwing everyone up.  You make it harder for both the people that are trying to do both good and evil.

There should be a way to establish some standards when it comes to so many ICOs in the market. It has become like an open field so that anyone can just copy an open-source cryptocurrency code, develop it a little and then market it well...viola you can then earn thousands if not millions of dollars.

I have seen some ICOs in this forum which are really bereft of any potential for growth hence we have the term "shitcoins" applied on them. In a deregulated and decentralized market, scam artists are right now celebrating because they now find a better platform to sell what they got...making money out of thin air.

We really have to be careful and we should be doing our due diligence before investing into a new offering and even before we try to also convince our friends to follow what we are doing.

We have been having some little few dump up to three to four times last year and the major thing that happened before the dump of price of major cryptocurrency, is when people bank of China  try to regulate bitcoin and others cryptocurrency. I think governments agency all over the world can cause cryptocurrency clash and people should be awear that governments and politicians did not want something that will give freedom for humanity and bitcoin and others cryptocurrency has the capacity to free humanity to get freedom from evil men.

So we just need more regulation

And while regulating cryptocurrencies themselves may not look like a good idea overall (I mean when they are already living on their own, i.e. past the ICO part of their life), regulating ICO's seems to be quite a different story (given the number of scams there). On the other hand, regulating ICO's which primarily exist as smart contracts may amount to regulating the whole thing which supports these contracts, for example, the Ethereum platform, i.e. regulating the cryptocurrency itself

Im in the same boat as you. I too hate the idea of a regulatory body overseeing everything and putting their noses where it shouldnt be. But with all the scammers having a good time taking every gullible person's money, some regulation is ok as long as it doesnt stop innovation.

Yes you are right the cryptocurrencies is like the internet back in 90's without regulations, but now it is being regulated and someday the bubble will pop but before that happens, cryptocurrencies will likely above or included in the top 10 market cap.

It will be nice to see that article, because it is very clear to me that in ten years only a handful of coins that exist right now will be around in the next decade, the only one I know it is going to be there is bitcoin but I’m not so sure about the others, if I had to pick another four I will probably pick, LTC, ETH, XMR and WAVES.

I would agree with you on this point.

No one cares if a coin with a small market cap crashes, the top 10 coins have almost all the market cap so those crashes are completely irrelevant and only affect those poor souls that invested some money in them, but if bitcoin crashed almost all the market of cryptocurrencies is going to be affected since all alts are priced in bitcoin.

Yezzir. We are in a bubble, no doubt (growth is too fast) but this wont be another "dotcom" bubble. the dotcom bubble like, actually popped; a lot of those companies went away forever, that had sound business ideas and actually would have worked if not for the market downturn. bitcoin could crash, and other coins would devalue; but folks would go into the next biggest market cap coins and run up the price of those. consider bcc. people ran it up to 1k, and why? we created billions of dollars of value from an ideological split. that doesnt sound like value creation; it sounds like rampant speculation to me.

I don't mind if BTC crash, am I wrong? It's like a salvation to the cryptomarket.

We have a more technological advanced and anonymous coins, don't we?

If you do not care then that is your right and I’m not going to argue against but the problem If bitcoin crashed is bigger than just a coin crashing, it is a matter of trust, if bitcoin crashes then the trust in cryptocurrencies is going to evaporate, people are going to begin to question their investments in crypto, and will think if that happened to bitcoin that may happen to this other coin and then panic will increase