Bitcoin Forum

Eliot waves analysts

https://ewminteractive.com/btcusd-ready-another-terrifying-pullback

and Goldman Sach says that bitcoin will top $4800 and then drop

I wonder if any people here agree

Here are the links

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/14/goldman-sachs-says-bitcoin-may-rise-about-500-more.html

It is hard to tell, but surely bitcoin is having a hard time going past 5000$. It is as if most people will sell when they see it approaching that price.

However, if it stays long enough in the high 4000$ that will establish a baseline and make it easier to surpass that barrier.

I am a big fan of technical analysis, especially in the absence of major news/events.  However, I've never been a big fan of Elliot Wave Theory.  In my experience, it can be hard to figure out where the waves are as charts tend to be pretty sloppy.  Additionally, like so many other analyses (Elliot Wave and others), the EWM Interactive article states a theory about where price is going, but they don't give any historical data for the use of Elliot Wave Theory on BTCUSD.  How many times has this sort of analysis worked in the past?  How many times has it been wrong?

That said, the chart in that article has been a pretty good guess so far.  If it holds, we should be right around point B right now.  I've been thinking that we're about due for a good gut-check correction, especially given how much optimism seems to be out there, and when we broke the old highs around $1100, I thought we might get to around 4x that level before a crash happens.  However, I would also point out that A was supposed to be around 4, and B is supposed to be a little less than 3, which would show weakness and the potential beginning of a downtrend.  In reality, A was significantly higher than 4, and B has surpassed 3, which makes the real chart look like we're very much still in an uptrend.

The bottom line is that I think there's reason to believe that we are nearing or have already hit a short-term top, and could see a major drop in the near future.  But it depends on what price does in the next couple of days.  If we can't break to new highs above $5000, and especially if we break below the last dip around $3900, we'll probably see a big leg lower.

Oh, and btw, I'm generally not a big fan of what Wall Street analysts have to say without knowing what their track record is.  They are paid to come up with numbers, and they need to come up with some kind of justification for those numbers, no matter the likelihood.  Many of them are lucky to be right half of the time.  And even those that are right more often than not are still wrong sometimes.

USD 5000,- will be a tough nut to crack for 3 reasons:

1) There's only so much fiat that can enter the market and right now it seems like most prospect investors have already invested as they seem fit.

2) Short to mid-term there's little room to grow past USD 5000,-, so risk / reward is not as attractive as a few months back.

3) USD 4000,- still needs to establish as a new, stable bottom. This will take time.

However once USD 4000,- has become the new baseline (if it becomes the new baseline) prospect investors will have reloaded on fiat and the risk will be seen as lower, making risk / reward more attractive again.

Don't believe from them unless you want to make them more rich imagine if lots of people would following their predictions they could easily make money out of it.

I'm just quite surprise to see someone from Goldman&Sach really making a lot of bold prediction regarding bitcoin. Maybe the popularity of bitcoin is truly rising because you can see a lot of technical analysis saying that the price could really go some places. But again, bitcoin is purely based on speculation so its really hard to predict. The Goldman&Sach was really more on the China's decision banning ICO that's why it fall. And they are wrong saying that bitcoin will fall by $2200 after a price correction. We have recovered already at $4600 and I seriously doubt it can go below $3000 now.

All the predictions about bitcoin is just opinions that have no basis. Actually nobody knows what will happen with bitcoin. The policy of bitcoin can only be based as of the moment. I'm more interested in how to develop the turnover of bitcoins.

Goldman Sach said it, and bitcoin started to go down and I think yesterday low was 4.100$ and everyone was like Goldman is right he is smart, but price recovered and we didn`t saw 3.000$ like he said we will. Maybe Goldman can predict stock market better then crypto market. Also maybe he deliberately made his prediction to make people sell their coins and lower the price so he can buy more bitcoins.
Don`t mix drops with regular price oscillations, bitcoin price is doing that from beginning and we can discuss about will it stop eventually, but I doubt that we can find some solid answer on that. Future for bitcoin is bright, and price will rise and oscillate until it stop in some point. Just don`t be afraid from pessimistic predictions, people judged bitcoin before and they are doing same now, bitcoin is showing how strong it is despite all that.

Wasn't there another thread already to discuss this goldman sach prediction bullshit?

Nobody can predict market moves because crypto trading doesn't follow usual market pattern of forex and what all these so called market experts will predict is just some random guessing.

That are kinds of analysts who I can hardly believe because I look behind a news and then sort it to fake or manipulative predictions. Who analyzes and what is his aim to do that? So I come to the conclusion, that Bitcoin will continue its way up.

It is just a speculation and I think they did say this because of the impending Fork that is about to happen this November but we should not take this seriously, what if this is just all FUD? and the drop will be much and I think this may not happen, bitcoin came a very long way to take this opportunity to have this kind of value, but if $2,221 does came true I think it is still pretty for the price value of any Altcoin.

That totally have no sense. You call that bitcoin will hardly break $5000 and on other hand you call $4000 as bottom.  That is like 20% difference between $4000 and $5000. With normal growth or fall it can be reach in a week. But with a crash or sudden growth even in single day.


Anything between $2000 and $10000 short term possible right now.

In other words, nobody can really predict and hit it 100% all the time. These people are just humans and though they have basis on their projections they do not have the power to make their projections come true. Of course, they can also be right but not in all cases. Another element we should be looking is the fact that some people are looking at the projections they want and then act accordingly making things like a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of thing. Where Bitcoin can be taking us is something only time can tell perfectly.

Exactly, that's why I just laugh and didn't believed a single thing that G&S analyst have told weeks before. Its no secret that along the way, we will get to a price correction, but he claiming that the market will crash in totally rubbish and no basis. Another factor that really made the price dip very quick is the China announcement so for me they got it wrong again. Its good to see their prediction and look what is their basis for saying that. And its up to us to believed or take it with a grain of salt. But since they are wrong already, I wouldn't trust anything coming from their financial analyst in the first place.

Drop and increase in the market value of bitcoin is a normal phenomenal because bitcoin is volatile in nature, any prediction about the movement of bitcoin is just a mere prediction and not 100% accurate.

Of course it will drop, we are in a freakin' bubble.

Creating news about a thing that is going all the way up is also a good advertisement for them.
Bitcoin being popular is going to make them pull more investors to them.
I praise the advertisement team of this good Goldman Sachs for being a genius into using bitcoin as a means of making a free ads for their names to be in the top again. Just want article for the popular bitcoin could make them a lot of money. Nice move.

I am expecting a worst case scenario of bitcoin dropping back to $3000. It doesn't really matter though. People seem to be obsessed with minor changes like +/- $500, we seem to forget to just zoom out and look at the trend. These changes are still considered as healthy in the market.

Believe it or not, that's not a big deal, the most important thing is the real value behind what they say. As long as you can understand it, you can make the right decision.

The required drop has taken place already. Now, Bitcoin would pass $5k range with some fluctuations easily. Same trend happened when Bitcoin passed $4k and then $4.5k. There might be some small drop at $4.8k. But that wouldn't be huge.

I would argue that this kind of price instability is a big deal and overall not good for bitcoin.  On a percentage basis, a change of $500 in one or two days is on the order of 10-12%.  The problem is that this indicates that there is no consensus whatsoever about what the price should be.  People are just throwing money at it, assuming that it's going to keep going up.  This makes a deep correction much more likely as these people are going to panic and sell quickly if/when we get a drop that's more than the expected $500 or so (or if a major support line is breached).

That's not at all a worst case scenario situation -- it still means that we're up like 200% this year. If we stretch it a lil bit further, then it's pretty safe to say that there isn't anything that you can consider to be a worst case scenario when it comes to the price. At every level there is enough buy support, where the lower the market is going, the more likely people will jump in and start buying like there is no tomorrow.

At the moment , bitcoin value quite stable although News about ICO got ban on China already spread around the world !
It means that even big country like China doesn't affect bitcoin value on global market

Just neglect all those predictions and make a long term investment on bitcoin, bitcoin is not for short term trading. Hold all your bitcoin for next 5 years you will easily get over 10x return so why to risk your profit by playing on occassional swings.

It is difficult to agree nor disagree with this kind of matter since speculating about what will happen in the future is difficult. Will bitcoin drop? Who knows, yes maybe. Bitcoin always do that. But if Bitcoin will really have a terrifying pullback, then this is a good opportunity to get on board again. I've been constantly hoping for this. ::)

I see it seems bitcoin will not drop, correction will always be there but bitcoin price will not be badly crushed. We can see the correction that happened yesterday because of negative news from china but we also see now bitcoin price has recovered quickly.

Very true that bitcoin price always rises after the fall. Though we had a bad news regarding CHina banning and also saw 800$ of fall from 4800$ but it started to recovering soon and now we care at 4600$ per btc already. So in terms for fall it does not seems so and little correction may take place in future as well but overall it will rise high every time it falls.

even the price of bitcoin drop 3000 dollars its very high if you compared the price before.  We dont know what will happen in bitcoin in the nexr few years. But if bitcoin drop we can buy more bitcoin and for sure you will earn profit . But as of now the price is very high is already 4600 dollars and I hope it will back again to the price of 5k dollars. But more bitcoin and you will be happy for the result.

That article is established last month and as we can see, it didn't happened if China didn't established a policy about ICO which is one of the reason why we saw a slight correction this past days. So without China's movement recently, we able to breach $5,000 for a continous bull run.

And price drop is possible as always but not that much. Goodluck for that Goldman Sachs analyst in waiting for $2,221 price drop. That is a failed speculation.

It is all idle speculation and guesswork. The only thing guaranteed is that the price will swing both ways, sometimes wildly, most times slowly. The rest is guess work.

How come he speculate that the drop will came to 2,221$? Is he really a expert speculator? or just random guy who made a wild guess? The price of bitcoins have come again to 4600$+ and the upward movement will be continue since the dump of bitcoins has been done and people used to moveon on china banning of ICO alts.

Yeah you have a point if there is no news about china banning ICO's i think we already touch in $5,000 but its still not late because its just a normal that we are seeing price drop because of panic sell and wrong understanding about the issue in china.. that is why i stay holding bitcoin when the price is starting to drop instead i buy more bitcoin when the price hit $4100 because $4k is a starting point i think that the drop will paused in $4k and increase back again after correction and i am right that the price is increase again.. they can not lose bitcoin since its already help a lot from china so it is normal that we are seeing that there is a big drop honestly we are in strong level which is not the same happen from last year and past years.

If bitcoin has actually topped out at $5000 and we are entering a bear market your worst case should be $1200 to $2000. You should be prepared to hold any bitcoin you own through a one to two year bear market. That is what risk/reward is about. Sure, bitcoin might surprise everyone and hit $7000 before the bear market. But if you are sitting on a lot of bitcoin right now is time to take profits and raise cash.

Doesn't it happen already?  there is no point in arguing about the analysis of Bitcon price droping since it already happen.  But the one debatable is the price going down to $2,200.  I know the analysis used here is the data from the previous price drop of Bitcoin but I believe there are lots of errors there.  Bitcoin might fall in price due to the correction but I think it will not touch $2500 again.

If bitcoin enters a bear market with the current top of $5000 you should expect price to drop to the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retrace levels on the chart. Of course if we make a new high we have to draw a new chart. We are talking worst care here. If bitcoin price drops to $2000 it will not just pop back up to make new highs, we will be in a bear market that could take a minimum of a year to resolve.

https://bitcoinnewsmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/bitstampmonthly.png

Hopefully the price will not get badly crushed again, but please be very careful about your assumptions.  This is also what people thought back in November/December of 2013 when the price spiked to around $1150.  Everyone thought it was going to keep going up up up.  What happened?  Over the following 13-14 months, the price kept dropping until it bottomed around $150 in January 2015.  That was an 87% drop.  After the previous spike to around $260 earlier in 2013, the price fell to around $63 -- a 76% drop.  As they say in trading/investing, history doesn't repeat itself, but if often rhymes.  Now, cryptos are better established than they were in 2013, but if much of the price runup this year is due to speculation, all of that can just as easily be undone.

bitcoin price always drop because bitcoin is famous on it's volatility and bitcoin is a decentralized currency so bitcoin will instantly drop suddenly it's depending on the demand. high demands of bitcoin investors high price will it be but if there's alot of user will gonna sell their bitcoin that will be the reason of the drop. price correction is one of the reason why bitcoin price are dropping.

Bitcoin is growing and the price of the bitcoin is increasing as the time passing. Bitcoin ha ahuge potential to increase your money and to make you rich even in a short time so we cannot say that bitcoin will drop the price ever a lot of people are getting into bitcoin and investing a lot of money in the bitcoin to get the profit because they knows that bitcoin will give them a future they have dreamed about so it is increasing and being more popular now.

This only will, not sure. Maybe bitcoin will experience a slight drop. Because like a runner, need to take a breather to continue the long journey. More people in the world, realizing advantages and potential benefits with bitcoin. Other than as a savings or investment.

If bitcoin will drop its price I am sure that bitcoin will still recover and will still hit what its value as of today, bitcoin right now are very trusted and a lot of people now are using bitcoin. So I guess even if bitcoin drops it will still recover and have a good price in the future!

Although the community of Bitcoin today does not like the past still small, but you have to know recently, almost investors are speculator, they do not have knowledge and experience about cryptomarket, this is advantage for whales create panic easy on the market.

Price of bitcoin will never or ever reach the low  value .In past three days, the price of bitcoin may vary or fluctuates. But it value will not go below the value of 4000$.Last week the price of bitcoin is  greater than the value of 4500$.In past three days the price is fluctuates .But the value is stable on 4100$.

I think that the price can fluctuate and stronger. And it will be fine for bitcoin. Its prices depend on news and on the correlation of supply and demand. And this means that there will always be fluctuations.
You just need to get used to it and do not panic.

I was actually following the Bitcoin price pretty well since the whole China news came out and I was pretty amazed that even though just a little after the news BTC dropped by around 1%, it rebounded within the next 6 hours back to it's original trading price. I don't know if people are just tired of hearing the China news and don't care or what's going on, but clearly it seems like Bitcoin wasn't extremely affected by this news instantly.

You should not need to fear the price of bitcoin reach low prices right now, but for me this is only temporary, and I think when viewed in the chart the movement of the bitcoin in change-change determines the direction, and I am sure the price bitcoin is going up again so that it reached at number $5000 at the end of this month, because of the bitcoin had achieved a price of $4800 on some days at the beginning of this month

yes i am also thinking that we will see a big fluctuation in the price of bitcoin, but still i am sure that the the price will not trade below 4000$, because at that level bitcoin has a strong support and therefore we can see that bitcoin price is trading above 4000$, i am sure that very soon bitcoin price will again boost and hope that this time will easily cross 5000$ level.

I think the only real threat we are facing in bitcoins that would make the price drop is that bitcoin private keys could be generated by a computer at will and bitcoins being banned in all countries simultaneously. I guess both scenarios might be far fetched but it is a possibility we should not ignore. Though I believe prices will start to recover once all issues are already resolved again like what happened with the issues of the fork.

It seems to me that users of crypto-currencies and still have problems with doubles of coins, and after Bitcoin you will follow the air. There are a lot of reports that the etherium can also be split. But November can be marked by another double for bitcoin. I do not understand what is happening and how this can end for us.

Well bitcoin has always recover from the drop it has taken . Only thing is that its a time factor how long will it take or so. Currently one of the worry is that China who is the major player is actually banning the ICO, and now exchange which will take a hit as selling pressure will be high and thus it may fall further in coming time.

i think yes bitcoin price have the ability to recover when its price drops, and therefore we can even expect that the price of bitcoin will very soon recover its previous value and very soon we will become able to see bitcoin trading above 5000$. i think most of the traders are still confident about the in bitcoin as they expect that bitcoin price will continue to increase for a long time, therefore still investment in bitcoin is a good chance to get.

Goldman sachs prediction is completely bull shit and just another FUD
Once bitcoin hits that level, Jafari estimates it could drop as far as $2,221.
Bitcoin won't fall below $3500, it tanks and hold at $4000 level.
I guess bitcoin could rise over $4500 again in this week and recover to $5000 by the end of this month, soon or later bitcoin will rise again.
Look at the news, some countries will legalize bitcoin by the end of the year which mean we'll back on Bulls run and continue to skyrocket.

No, i dont think it will drop more than its actually price. It dropped a lot in the last week, from $4800 to $4150 right now.
And it looks like the correction is almost over, i think that the price will stay in this level for two or three more days until we hear good news from china or any other country that wants to regulate the ICOs
But yes, i dont think it will drop more.

For now we are seen a stable price so i think the price can be increase more soon.. its a panic sell and there is no correction happening according to this twit https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/906560905269329920
Its a fake news i think they will be still buying more bitcoin back soon.. and few ICO was delisted ..
Hope that we will sooner the recovery of bitcoin .

That Elliot Wave analysis is starting to look more and more correct.  Depending on where you draw it, we're either around or below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern developing on the daily chart, which could take us down to the $3000-ish area.  That, combined with sitting on the 50-day moving average, does not bode well for the short-term price outlook if we can't bounce right here.

Elliott Wave works best after the fact. You can always find an alternate wave count to support your position. Looking at weekly BBands it is easy to see if price breaks support at $3600 we are headed down to the weekly 20 MA at $2900 - $3000. Last time the weekly 20 MA was tested it was a good time to buy.

i'm not sure bitcoin drop for this year. that bitcoin wouldn'tl drop in this year but i think bitcoin can be normal price in next year like last year so for holder bitcoin, i feel stay hold your bitcoin untill this year gone

If September is month of bearish trend, I think the price of Bitcoin cannot recovery till October coming. However, maybe we will see the bottom of the price of Bitcoin in this month bellow $3,000 again. The FUD of whales recently really make investors worry and panic.

if bitcoin has already dropped by around $1k and we know that there will be another possible split so with that the price will be going all over the place and eventually the corrections, does that mean that the price will pretty much remain inbetween $3500-$4500 for the next few months? This is truly the toughest year for btc so far.

I expect bitcoin at $2000 in November, because a lot of FUD is coming and the november fork fud hasn't even started yet and we see bitcoin dropping a thousand dollars.

If you remember July, two weeks before August 1, then expect something similar... but twice as big.

Yes two weeks before August 1, the price pumps more even there is a FUD and negative speculation/s about the price decrease that expected to happen after August 1st fork. But contrary to what majority is speculated, the price rose more and passed $4,000 for about two weeks later after August 1st.

I don't see any FUD in the upcoming event again at November and all I can say is, this recent price drop can considered as good opportunity to acquired more bitcoin on anyone's portfolio. Since majority is waiting for it, what are they gonna do that their hopes become true? Still wait for more dips or will now accumulate more funds on the stash? 

We are used to this kind of price movement, price will increase hard then will also decrease hard but in the end what happen?

Now that price decrease for around $1,000 right now, I think I will agree to everybody's saying that an average bitcoiner can take this opportuniny to increase the quantity of their bitcoin. Id rather take and face the risk of buying it today than waiting for more price dip.

There are many speculation about bitcoin price that it will drop so hard. If we will not take the risks in buying at the low price and suddenly it become soaring high. We will feel regret again by not taking the opportunity, so I'd rather hold and wait for the price to high again.

That's better but if you have excess money then you can buy some bitcoins at current price as price is below $4000 and most of the people were waiting for this price so that they can buy at lower price and if you don't want to buy then hold your existing coins and wait for the price to go higher once again.

i see many trader is already buying at $39xx and they are waiting for another down and I think the price will be down again. I think if one bad news is release, many people panic and they do fast selling and this makes bitcoin drop for more. I don't know why they are too easy to be panic but we don't need to follow their step.

I'm sure it will be, the limit is reached, some have already begun to sell, so in the next month I think a fall will begin. The question is different in how many, but here it is difficult to guess. And analysts, they are people who can also put forward only assumptions.

Next month? Maybe No and I think by next month there's another great happening on bitcoins itself since the fuds nor the correction wanna be is done and might we can see some major changes to the price. And don't see any fall on it but instead we might provably see some great rise on october.

when bitcoin crash is a opportunity to buy, not a big deal.

I attribute the current downfall to three reasons:

1) China market uncertainty related to future of Bitcoin Exchanges
2) People selling coins after reaching $5000 mark to rake in profits.
3) JP Morgan's CEO statement against Bitcoin.

This is just a above average Technical pull-down situation. The value will again go up once people start buying more.

Some prediction are becoming true however if you can't handle the bitcoin price drop then you people don't deserve when the price increase up to multiple times this is the thrill here when the price drop people had their chances to use bitcoin the the market will fall too alternative coins and others so better to buy now before its too late.

What happen price recovered. Sometimes fast sometimes slow. This will be the same, price went up fast so it must fall down fast to certain point then it will start recovering for good. Next maybe major move can be in November for some bigger price change.

Why can't it be a perfectly normal correction instead of external statements affecting this market? It's option (2) that I deem to be a realistic reflection of what is currently happening.

People kept hodling on to their coins for quite a long time (much longer than I was expecting), which has greatly contributed towards reaching the $5000 mark this month ~ people are in the game to make profit after all.

If one doesn't cash out, there will be no profits. I am quite confident that the $3000 mark will form a rock solid bottom. Considering what we have gone through, seeing sub $3000 levels is like the market being oversold.

I will use this opportunity to buy myself a whole lot of more coins the lower it keeps falling. My next buying target sits below the $3500 mark ~ currently the price went down all the way to $3620 on Bitstamp.

Yes, their will be a chance of bitcoin to drop but there is less chance of dropping but chance of increasing of bitcoin is more than dropping.  From past many years there was continuously increasing a bitcoin.

I think the price will drop below the 2xxx mark easily. There are a LOT of people who would be profitable even at that level so they will dump when it starts to go down more. Panic selling is already under way. To be honest, since traders are involved, there would be  no profits without the ups and downs. In the long run, even those who bought at $5000 mark will profit anyway.

As for Chinese exchanges, I hope they all close down permanently and the Chinese are out of this game. They cause a lot of uncertainty and rules there change on a daily basis and in an unpredictable manner since their process is not transparent.

Panic happens everywhere.

Because price decrease is considered as bad thing to happened by others, they must learn how to flip the coin back and take this price decrease as an advantage instead. Buy more during the dips and never sell during downtrend. Why in the first place someone will sold their coins at below price they bought it. It's not a wise move although the purpose it to minimize losses. They should realized that bitcoin is long term so just gather coins and forget price decrease. Chances for bitcoin to become zero value is low chance so just face the risks.