Bitcoin Forum

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.

Well, I expect the price to be very unstable until we've had atleast 1 or 2 weeks without Chinese rumours.

After that I expect the price to rise for a few weeks until the fork which I think is happening in November, a week prior to that I expect the price to take a big hit again.

dailly charts doesnt look good (death cross), but on weekly the 3666 might be defended, short time frames shows trend reversal, so its ranging days ahead of us...untill the range is broken, it may as well happen that the 3750 holds, i wouldnt be selling it now, ...

As I pointed in this thread, the first support was on $3450. It is holding for now, but that's a very weak support level. Bitcoin had a rebound exactly on $ 3,431.74.
I'd wish it could hold the value, But I still see much more likely to get the support between 2650 and 2850 dollars.

Time will say...
Good luck everybody.

it went a lot more down, but the devils 3666 is to Big magnet.

Heres my chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/byeukwh8/

Note this is log scale.

I have marked a large bull channel and a more recent steeper bull channel. Neither of these is yet breached. Bitcoin may test the bottom of that steep channel at roughly $2.5K. That is the strongest area I'd look for confirmation the bull is still active. Although bitcoin could fall below that, and arguably still be in a wider bull mode while it stays above the lower trendline of the larger channel.

As far as those rising channels go, bitcoin looks like it may just be correcting after too many steep rises.

There is also a negative divergence on RSI and price marked with blue lines (not the vertical halving blue lines). This would normally be bearish sign. However this also happened at lower levels (blue dotted lines) and then price exploded higher instead of dropping (which caught me out)
 
Negative divergence shows might be start of bearish trend.

There is a lot of fake news and banker shilling, from like of Jamie Dimon and China, perhaps they are trying to turn the tide. I am sure if this was precious metals they would also be selling in huge volume naked shorts on the futures markets. Thanks to crypto they can't do that too. Hehe.

As long as bankers continue to fear bitcoin, the happier I am.

The market is recovering now. It should recover by the end of the weekend or could be fall down below 3k I doubt, exactly what Im thinking. I just amazed Listen little bits of chinese news destroy the market only next couple of hours!

May be all this situation with China restrictions will be a good thing for Bitcoin in long period. Bitcoin depends on China miners/markets/news too much for now.

In the long term, yes. This will temporarily stifle the Chinese markets and crypto sector. That will allow the US, Japan and others to increase their respective market shares in regards to trading (spot and derivatives).

However, there is a twist here. Bitmain is the largest chip manufacturer in the industry. They just stopped taking BTC payments (payable internationally). Now they are only accepting CNY payments. They didn't accept CNY payments previously.

That means two things. Mining may become even more centralized within China because international customers can no longer pay in BTC. It also means that, for the time being, the only way to legally invest CNY into BTC is to buy mining hardware. It creates a very interesting situation, and I'm not sure exactly what it means for the price.

So far this "bear market" was only a few days long, as the price is now only $300-400 lower than before we started getting stronger rumors about possible ban. By definition, the real bear market is when some asset is decreasing in its price for a long period of time, which is not what really happened now. Of course time flows faster in Bitcoin world, because it's traded 24/7, but still we are very far from declaring bear market. The price has been increasing for more than 1.5 years and there's still a lot of momentum. And if you'll think about fundamentals, you'll notice that recently a lot of companies and governments were in fact embracing Bitcoin, so we are still in a bull market, and it may last really long.

This seems to be fairly accurate.

I think that we are going to be in a bearish market for a long long time, potentially until the next halving.

Even though the price has risen, it has not risen to the point where it is safe to call this another bullish wave right now. There seems to be resistance at $3700. Floor has been lowered to around $3000, and imo this month we could potentially see the floor readjusted down to $2200-2500.

We are definitely still in a bull market based on any long term technical indicators (trend lines, moving averages). The larger trend is clearly up. But within trends, there are corrective periods. Context is everything: The 2014-2015 bear market was just a corrective period, but it was extremely painful for bulls, especially those who remained bullish long after the December 2013 top.

So, in that vein, we could still go lower yet and still be in a bull market. Even Masterluc now expects a run to the lower $2000s (after a bounce to the lower $4000s).

We are definitely overall in a bearish market right now. Price in the past 30 days is actually in the red which means that growth has slowed down significantly and even went in the negatives, which is an anomaly when compared to the pumps in the past few months.

Even though currently we are in a bullish recovery, there is still a lot of FUD.

Short term we may be able to breach $4k again, but i think by the end of the year we might see sub-$3000 levels consistently.

"Consistently" is the operative word here. That's the question at hand, at least from a wave trader's point of view. Whether this is the first leg in a triangle or a 3-wave correction, the expectation is generally that there is another leg down into the territory of the previous consolidation ($1800-3000).

But after that? We might be back in a full blown bull market, with no lower lows in sight. So that's the question: correction or bear market? Nobody can deny that we are in a corrective phase after a 40% drop. It will take time for the market to absorb this loss of momentum.

But a bear market like 2014? That's a bold call to make.

it was interesting to watch when it was droping,...for examle eur/ltc and usd/ltc at bitstamp, at usd/ltc evrzone was selling but at eur/ltc evryone was buying, i still think that bcs of the 3 big shut down, there will be less btc and other cripto to be sold, so if the ones that has them, dont sell them, and the fresh mainstream steps in, we could be start to see ATH again, just bcs the institution guzs already stepped in and bought evrything at that dip, now just a few fresh buyers and we could easilly make new ATH.

Doesn't that also mean that there is a gap on the industry to meet the international demand for mining chips, that is, without converting going through the trouble of converting your money to CNY?

I'd say this is an opportunity for another company to step up and grab the lion's share.

Bearish as it is but bitcoin would be unpredictable at times but right now we can see a big come back, early on the value is at $3900 and right now it came back to the $3700 again it is really unpredictable right now it might go up for now but we can not say that it will be a bullish comeback because there are sure resistance that might happen But 1 think is for sure even if the price collapses it will surely comes back and rising up again.

Bearish as you say but i think it's done the price correction is done and it is all getting back again on track to rise again. China's banning of ICO's and exchanges totally is not a lose but in fact it's an opportunity to the market for them to buy such a cheap price of bitcoin and sooner they will sell it at the higher price rate.

I would call it hypervolatile at the moment.
There is still a lot of unceratinty in the market, and we have no clue if we have already seen the endgame of the chinese regulation politics.
I can't tell if the recent events brought so many people out of bitcoin that that market will become bearish over a longer period of time.
Most of the I expect to come back.

For almost 5 day if I am right we did experience the price to be bearish and just what you have said there is a lot of uncertainty in the market that we are still unaware of I also think that we are just beginning to see the hardcore problem because the value is still unpredictable to make an speculation about this, but as of now the value is very volatile for now.

The price has raised but still it is not stabilized, we are not in a stage to predict anything, it can be even bearish for few days and takes some time to become normal. This period provides good chance for buyers and I hope in short it becomes bullish again.

Some fear for the hard fork possibility , so untill November there will be no stability. But then it can be bullish again.

When the price of bitcoin breached the $4000 support level i expected the price would test the $3000 support level and it happened and now it is recovering and could test the resistance level once again and i am sure these news will be forgotten pretty soon and the bull market will be back in a very short period.

If the price of Bitcoin does not falls down bellow $3,000 it cannot makes traders doubt the future of Bitcoin and whales also could not earn profit from us :P. That is reason we should keep patience for wait a miracle.

I saw the above news posted in a well-circulated tweet (from a couple days ago, can't find it now). However, I went to Bitmain's shop and it appears that they are still taking payment in USD wires, at least according to the product pages I looked at. It sounds like they may be preparing to make the change, though. We have to wait and see. It seems like the PBOC is serious this time.

As for the ASIC manufacturing opportunity, it looks like two Japanese conglomerates (GMO and DMM Group) are entering the chip manufacturing sector. They are making major investments into both chip manufacturing and pool infrastructure:
www.newsbtc.com/.../japanese-e-commerce-giant-dmm-unveils-bitcoin-mining-plans/
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/japanese-company-will-launch-new-bitcoin-mining-operation-7-nm-chips/

obviously, but bitcoin already recover now, persist at $3600-$3700.
People still waiting for the next massive sell off I guess, but who knows what will happen by the end of this week.
If bitcoin can not surpass $4000 mark in few days, usually people tend to sell due to uncertainty of the market.
I am not sure whether the storm has passed or there will be another one coming toward us in the nearly future, just be prepared.

I have no idea what you guys see but in my charts the bullish trend is alive and well. In fact, we can take easily another dip to 2.8k and still be bullish.
If we go up now and stabilize in fact, it will create an even steeper bullish line...

We are on a bear market for many days now.

This is not a real recovery. For a recovery price would be above $4000 already and new floor established.

There was a bear trap, tough, so I hope things can be normal in some two weeks.

We really do not need to wait for a miracle as the price went down simply because of the FUD news and the market corrected because there was a heavy selling in bitcoin because China is restricting the ICO market and it has nothing to do with bitcoin and still the market corrected itself and so you do not need a miracle as there is nothing to worry and the market will recover eventually.

The previous rise in price is looking like a bear trap right now.

Price is down 8.5% today to $3400 and seems to be constantly falling. I do think that the floor is still at around $3000 and should prove to hold up fairly decently. However, the Chinese exchanges haven't actually closed right now and when they close it's a different story.

An adjustment down to $2500 to kickstart a very long bear market could be possible next month, if BTCChina does close down and others follow.

China seems to be confirming that they will be closing down all exchanges, and BTCC has announced that they will cease operation fairly soon. This is the main reason of the bear market right now.

If everything that is rumored to happen does get carried out(aka, all exchanges go under), then i think that this will be the start of a pretty long 'bitcoin recession for sure'.

Support seems to be at $2900-3000 and holding there right now. This month we shouldn't see anything under that level.

I personally don't trust that much in technical analysis, because it's more of a tool for predicting price solely on the past movements, while ignoring the fact that the price is usually moved by some events. For example, there won't be any dip to $2,800 without China's ban. But 2014-2015 market seems like an anomaly to me, there is no good explanation why the price was so low, Mt.Gox was just an exchange and not part of the Bitcoin protocol, so probably it has something to do with China having the largest share of trading volume and rumors that it can be banned at any time. So in this light we can see current rally as a product of legalization effort in developed countries like Japan, Korea and the US, while the Chinese influence has been diminishing.

Go bulls go! No need for bears here :) We can manage without China. There is anyway a rising global demand for btc.

I don't think it can be called hypervolatile. Bitcoin is just looking for the next driver to make an upward or downward move. If the news flow is Good, we may have a bull run in spite of the Chinese crackdown.

No, that's not true. There are different kinds of TA. Predicative TA systems like Elliott Wave -- yes, past price fractals are the basis for predictions. But that's not to say that price is moved by news and not the TA. Most analysts will tell you that news events are merely "catalysts" to moves that the chart was already predicting. Other types of TA merely tries to detect trends -- i.e. not predictive but lagging. The point there is ride trends until they end.


You can't possibly know that. The China ban may have given the market a reason to fall faster than it would have otherwise, but how do you know that price wouldn't have dipped anyway? How do you know where true price support was, if not the bottom near $3000?

I'm not sure that's true. We bounced ~ 30% in a day; that's an incredible recovery and shows real demand from the bulls. Still, I won't make any grand predictions. And if Lucif is bearish, then bulls better be careful.

But I don't think that $4000 is necessarily meaningful. We had a strong relief rally, and are currently bull flagging. If bulls can manage to break and hold above the $4400 level (major supply zone and price pivot), then I think the bull market is still on.