Bitcoin Forum

In 5 years, when the final banking crisis arises, and the whole banking system collapses. Having a "price" for bitcoins in USD or EUR doesn't make sense anymore. The "price" is basically infinite then. BUT the value is not, although still bigger than now.

Why would the system collapse in 5 years? Can you highlight this?

It is obvious, man

I'm in Bitcoin since 2012, but I just learned about fractional banking 2 weeks ago. Something's wrong, can you feel it?

Hell will freeze over before the banking system fails.  In the UK countries, the problem is the banks are too risk averse and not lending money to homebuyers and small businesses.

I doubt this system will last 5 more years.. but then again I probably thought the same in 2008. At some point the realization has to settle in that the endless printing of more fiat isn't working, and then what? Can they think of something else? Back to the gold standard perhaps, or maybe then bitcoin will truly show its strength and opportunities to the world.

It is in collapse right now it's just that things that are very rapid on the timescales of civilizations seem very slow to lilliputians like us and we tend not to notice things that are happening on higher time scales because we focus our attention disproportionately on events that are more recent. It's entirely natural for us to do this, it's a legit survival strategy, we have limited resources to dedicate towards thought. However useful myopathy can be from a survival standpoint it has its obvious drawbacks. The point is you have to know what to look for if you want to see it in real time. Look at the infrastructure crumbling, the renminbi strengthening dramatically against western currencies, americas failure in the "graveyard of empires" and the prices in the grocery store.

there were people who thought they were citizens of rome long after historians consider roam to have collapsed.

We can use price indexes like gold, silver, barrels of oil, Big Macs, whatever

I think it's a great time for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to show what they can.


Yes, I feel it. I think in 5-10 years we will can do this without any loss:

http://cs310831.vk.me/v310831512/6f2/nj-DM-1yo18.jpg

5 years? Just like that David Bowie song?

Remember, in some "developed" countries now, youth unemployment is 60% and there are riots on the street and public school children begging their friends for food at lunch time. Prostitution in Athens has increased by 150%.

I give it 2 years tops. But then, the banksters always seem to have a rabbit to pull out of their hat... Hmmph. So maybe a few more decades of this shit, if the level of acknowledgement by your average person is any indication.  ;D

That was exactly the point i was trying to make...
They will somehow make sure the global economy will not hit hyper inflation and als won't go into an deflationary downward spiral.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578502791681126734.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

"European banks that spent the past few years building up big stockpiles of cash at central banks have started drawing down reserves, a sign of the industry's renewed confidence and appetite for risk despite the Continent's financial crisis."

As I said, hell will freeze over before you see the banking system fail.  They came though after the enormous fuck-ups of the last 15 years and have even bigger cash reserves than ever.

If banking system would fail, that means bank from all over the world will go into a domino effect right? And I presume there might be wars / civil wars /huge riots

Can someone detail how this might happen? It's not very clear what would happen... bank runs, riots

Banks are guaranteed by governments.  So first thing you would see before the banking system fails is a whole series of governments failing.  In this context, failure means ceasing to exist.

For that to happen, we have to think in terms of extinction level events.

Why would it not collapse? http://youtu.be/Osq1yxSFVG0 (http://youtu.be/Osq1yxSFVG0)

Actually it's not really a miracle.
The remittance of debt is what keeps the system going, and as long as the extent is large enough this can go on for a long long time. If the amount is equal to the amount of compounding interest which can not be payed back even indefinitely.

I'd agree it can go in indefinably*, but eventually you get pissed off, and start wondering why your savings are diminishing and your investments are delisting, and you find Bitcoin. 
I think this dissolution stage with the banks will take 10 to 15 years and we will see a global reserve currency before anything collapses.

*Earth a finite Planet being the one caveat as the perpetual banking motion machine requires growth.   

We are already seeing the developments in this area, China as the new superpower, Russia and China buying gold, GLD going down, but demand for physical going crazy, etcetera. China and Russia will team up and come up with a new reserve currency, backed by gold. It can take just 3 to 5 years to see this.

Because governments and central banks all over the world will instead work together to instead devalue money. More slowly than instant, but in a hidden trail.

Pensions and all monetary investments will slowly loose their value through carefully pushed hyperinflation masked by using an indicator and creating a "shopping cart" that will readily mask this.

You will loose savings, true. Everyone will. But the system won't collapse. At worst, they will vaporate some savings and put them into other people's pockets to fix their debt and consolidate. At the moment this system is working better than ever before. It is a gold mine for every bank and investment guy in the world. It is absolute horror for the average saver with pension funds.




China and Russia. When hell freezes over. Have you lived in these countries? No way in hell are chinese going to accept any shared currency that is not perfectly under their control. And Russia accepting Chinese control over their currency? Fuck that.

This is not going to happen.

They aren't devaluing money slowly, nor in a hidden trail, it's out in the open, central banks are creating money and buying bonds at an amazing rate. If they stop, the entire system will collapse. The stock market goes down every time they ease up a little on the QE throttle, so they must continue creating more money. If they don't, it will collapse anyway, there's nowhere to go but create a new system, with gold as the reserve currency. As for China and Russia, I'm just speculating, it's the speculation forum  ;D, we'll see how it develops in the next years.

Classical Libertarian propaganda.
A lot of people will just stop receiving capital gains, that's all. Toxic companies "on the stock market" which do nothing but to manage capital will be liquidated.
Oh and some politicians might loose their jobs... (and have a bright jail career)

In 2008 it was the system will be gone five years max. Now it's time... frankly I can't see it. Oh you mean another five years?

And people holding bitcoins, gold and silver will get stinking rich.

Nope, it will be people who own companies to build robots which wipe your ass. (Because 80% of the population is now 80+ and can't do it like they used to)

<tinfoilhat>
Maybe this is why they have dropped the price on Gold from 1800>1300 recently so they can buy as much as they can for cheap.
</tinfoilhat>

Some government employees will have to be laid off too... Including soldiers coming back home, office clerks being forced to do something productive. Some people would no longer be able to receive food stamps, unemployment benefits would be devalued into oblivion by inflation.
If soldiers suffering from PTSD and angry clerks and unemployed do not scare you, I don't know what would.

You do know the collapse has being going for a several years now and it gets worse every year? right?

re: Suggestion that we will switch to a world reserve currency backed by gold issued by china/russia/etc:

Any currency BACKED by gold and silver has counterparty risk.

Bitcoin does not have counterparty risk.

Physical gold/silver has significantly less risk but unless you cut all your bars open, you're still hoping that the place you bought it from wasn't putting tungsten rods into everything.

Paper backed with the promise of gold - well you're giving quite a bit of trust to a government, and they've been so honest in the past right?

re: Economic collapse in the next 5 years, the next 5 years, 5 years after, jesus is coming in 2 years, the world will end exactly on this date, yokosan i will decrypt this message in 7 days or quit the forum forever, no i'll really do it this time...
It's happening now. Look at Europe. Look at the states. The only thing keeping most people from admitting it is the media's constant insistence that we are in a recovery despite fundamentals clearly showing otherwise.

There were people who still considered themselves citizens of Rome decades after historians consider the Roman Empire to have ended... don't be one of those clowns ;D

It remembers me about this movie:

I recommended this to anybody who didn't check this out yet.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769/

Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7aNubylpkc

Maybe by then there will be some fairly well established crypto currencies which can be used to exchange against it :P Maybe just gold?

We can only hope this will happen though

Please read some history, this is how all civilisations behave.  It goes up, it goes down.

If we are to use any guidance, we should look at the last century, and see that what we have now is similar, but only similar to the early 1930s.  We have governments trying to manipulate the economy and we have a lot of instability in different parts of the world.

As I read it, the 2008 crash was directly linked to the actions taken in 1931. All we are seeing now is governments grabbing even more power while trying to ensure that the figures are being made to show that their actions are justified.

If you want to see doom and gloom, you need to add at least a decade or two of misery to see what sort of effect it has.

However, while it would make sense that the whole thing ends in one big war, possibly with the West fighting against Muslims, I don't think our society has the stomach for it.  If that does happen, I would expect it to bubble until at least 2030 when we will have had a whole generation grow up knowing nothing of easy money.  Its the frustration of not being able to get what their parents had at their age which might be enough to bring a fighting spirit to the surface.

However, remember that the government will still be in power and controlling all this like they always do! ;)

As for bitcoins, the concept will live on, but don't expect to collect your pension with the coins in your wallet today! ;)

Exactly this. I remember watching the crash/collapse of 2008 and thinking "wow this will all go down the drain and implode within a couple of years" and I've been proven wrong. That being said it seems to me that the current system is "incompatible with reality" to put it mildly and like all things, will pass away sooner or later. I'd be glad to see it sooner rather than later - the more it gets postponed the harder the crash and its effects on people around the world will be.

Well you cant hide inflation. But they are changing the calculations to not create mass panics.

Of course you can hide inflation - if you are in charge of all the numbers used to calculate that inflation!

We only know if the dollar is losing value against another currency, if that other currency doesn't lose any value.  But f both of them are losing value at the same time, it looks like nothing is happening.

Now mix in all the major currencies, and you end up with all the potential indicators moving in conjunction, or not at all, depending on your view point.

If you want an indication of how the value of fiat is dropping, just check out the value of minor currencies who are not following the same policies - ahh, there aren't any!  So obviously, we have no inflation! ;)

I still have to get used to the idea that it takes only 11.7 BTC to buy a one oz gold coin. http://www.goldsilverbitcoin.com/product-category/gold/ (http://www.goldsilverbitcoin.com/product-category/gold/)

That is if you buy now, if you went BTC to gold just over 5 months ago you would have pay what I paid 125BTC per OZ, on a lighter note I paid for dinner for the first time using Bitcoin, and it cost 0.11BTC, wow = my first 2.5 hrs of mining, sorry I bought gold, I'll buy food again.