Title: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on September 18, 2017, 01:42:41 PM Hopefully bitcoinwisdom stays up for tracking.
This trezor is provided by trezor they made an error on my order sent me too many black ones and not enough white ones. This generously fixed the order by sending me whites ones on their dime. I told them I would do the next promo and give away a black one. While mentioning their generosity in fixing an error. I also must mention when btc added bcc trezor did a good job of allowing access to the bcc. New contest picks to start at block 1116. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. rules to follow old thread links https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2076073.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2057465.0 this Trezor https://shop.trezor.io/static/img/trezor_black.jpg Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 18, 2017, 01:46:07 PM New contest picks to start at block 1116.
Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. If you are overseas I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor Rules https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950 I am checking this list of rules from older thread 1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017 you must have at least 30 posts. -- 2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play. 3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed. 4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed 5) picks start at: Bitcoin Difficulty: Estimated Next Difficulty: Adjust time: Block 1116 Hashrate(?): Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 3 blocks: 6 blocks: Updated: 6) picks end at Bitcoin Difficulty: Estimated Next Difficulty: Adjust time: 516 Hashrate(?): Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 3 blocks: 6 blocks: Updated: 7) since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems. 8 ) note the change picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner. 9) format is below and this is the contest picks from 2016 in code as low as you want -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 to as high as you want Code: -1.2 = philipma1957 >>>> I always pick this number Code: Difficulty History 10) Finally If I missed anything I will be the sole decider as to what is fair. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. And look at the diff drop at the start of this jump see gray line https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1502539804 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: Philopolymath on September 18, 2017, 09:43:17 PM Is..
-0.5 = Philopolymath Available? Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: alh on September 18, 2017, 10:03:16 PM Is.. -0.5 = Philopolymath Available? While it is available, it's WAY too early to try and pick. Read above for details on when you can actually "make a pick". Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 18, 2017, 11:44:00 PM Is.. -0.5 = Philopolymath Available? no as contest starts at block 1116 and I suggest you wait closer to the end of picks at 516. look at all this hash on BCC this is a big drop for btc watch it for a while before you pick we are -8% for btc look here often before you pick https://pool.viabtc.com/ https://i.imgur.com/VFvn68n.png Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: Philopolymath on September 19, 2017, 12:11:02 AM AHH...THE COUNTDOWN to ADJUSTMENT...I just got it....DOH!
Ok I'll be quiet now and pay closer attention... (I'm gunna pick DOWN BABY DOWN!!! anyway) Can I get a wake-up call around block 600 And SHAME ON ANYONE WHO PICKS DIFF GO UP...Bad Vodoo Mojo on you.. They should be banned from contest.. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: Kayaman85 on September 20, 2017, 11:41:25 AM +1.9
Am I doing this right? lol sorry first time. :) Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: VRobb on September 20, 2017, 04:14:28 PM Nope, too early and you might be too new a member to qualify for a pick... phil will weigh-in shortly I'm sure... ;)
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: Kayaman85 on September 20, 2017, 07:47:37 PM Kool, just figured i'd give it a try. How do I know when to it starts? At a certain block or something?
And yeah, sorry, I am a noob. lol. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 20, 2017, 07:49:21 PM +1.9 Am I doing this right? lol sorry first time. :) you have been on this site since 2016 but you have a big gap right here. september 2017 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2062333.msg21526389#msg21526389 april 2016 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=424598.msg14533440#msg14533440 so to be fair your clock starts sept 2017 which means nov 2017 and 30 post minimum ______________________________________________________________________ this post is really bad https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2134724.msg21570188#msg21570188 this post is also bad https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2176471.msg21827839#msg21827839 ____________________________________________________________________ but I don't hate guys that hustle so my 2 month rule with 30 posts means nov 2017 I will let you play. As the dead time from 2016 to 2017 means you start the clock in sept of 2017 so make 30 posts and keep an eye on the threads. Nov 10 th or so and you are in. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: AtraxPool on September 20, 2017, 08:34:09 PM Would like to play along but not been member long enough I don't think.
Been watching the diff its a difficult one to predict right now just like you said in another post the hashrate is being manipulated with switching to bcc. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 20, 2017, 08:49:48 PM Would like to play along but not been member long enough I don't think. Been watching the diff its a difficult one to predict right now just like you said in another post the hashrate is being manipulated with switching to bcc. you would be nov 1 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 22, 2017, 09:13:09 PM New contest picks to start at block 1116. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. we start at block 1116 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506114604 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 23, 2017, 10:03:55 PM Bitcoinwisdom has us at +0.17
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,105,328,181,025 (+0.17%) Adjust time: After 1185 Blocks, About 8.9 days Hashrate(?): 8,013,117,336 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.2 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 18:0 (3.7 minutes ago) New contest picks to start at block 1116. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. we start at block 1116 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are yet to open. Post by: philipma1957 on September 24, 2017, 01:17:29 PM Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. we start at block 1116 PICKS ARE OPEN -1.2 = philipma1957 picks close at 516 Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,102,487,255,126 (-0.08%) Adjust time: After 1092 Blocks, About 8.1 days Hashrate(?): 7,871,417,829 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.7 minutes 3 blocks: 32.1 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 9:10 (6.9 minutes ago) good luck to all! Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: Philopolymath on September 24, 2017, 06:59:28 PM Philopolymath = Down -0.5% (Oopps Corrected)
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: VRobb on September 24, 2017, 11:17:21 PM I'm with you, phil, and thanks for running the game. Keeps degeneracy alive! :D
-1.3 = VRobb Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2017, 12:36:39 AM Philopolymath = Down -0.05% Numbers are in .1 So -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 Your pick Would be -0.1 or 0.0 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: vapourminer on September 25, 2017, 01:47:53 AM -1.0 =vapourminer
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2017, 02:24:00 AM Philopolymath = Down -0.05% Numbers are in .1 So @ Philopolymath Your pick Would be -0.1 or 0.0 can not be -0.05 current picks below are good -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma195 -1.0 =vapourminer7 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: abeandund on September 25, 2017, 04:28:17 AM +4.5=abeandund
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2017, 07:40:43 AM Philopolymath = Down -0.05% Numbers are in .1 So @ Philopolymath Your pick Would be -0.1 or 0.0 can not be -0.05 current picks below are good -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer +4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: buwaytress on September 25, 2017, 08:36:05 AM Hey philip, thanks for getting this degenerate train back on track! Looks like the graph is getting over that huge blip, wonder if we'll get another surprise at the November mark?
Let me be the first to show ye of little faith how the miners are returning to the comforting fold of Bitcoin with my positive adjustment guess ;) Edit: eh, abeandund appears to be stronger of faith 1.7 = buwaytress Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: Philopolymath on September 25, 2017, 09:56:56 AM Ooppss Corrected to..
Philopolymath = Down -0.5 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2017, 12:16:49 PM Philopolymath = Down -0.05% Numbers are in .1 So @ Philopolymath Your pick Would be -0.1 or 0.0 can not be -0.05 current picks below are good -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done 1.7 = buwaytress 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,088,389,700,117 (-1.36%) Adjust time: After 962 Blocks, About 7.2 days Hashrate(?): 7,291,915,721 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.4 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 8:15 (1.6 minutes ago) Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: AtraxPool on September 25, 2017, 02:09:22 PM Looks like the hashrate is switching again over at Via btc.
Code: BTC Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2017, 03:01:23 PM Looks like the hashrate is switching again over at Via btc. Code: BTC my gut feeling is this is great or terrible just not sure which it will be. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: abeandund on September 25, 2017, 04:30:11 PM Hey philip, thanks for getting this degenerate train back on track! Looks like the graph is getting over that huge blip, wonder if we'll get another surprise at the November mark? Let me be the first to show ye of little faith how the miners are returning to the comforting fold of Bitcoin with my positive adjustment guess ;) Edit: eh, abeandund appears to be stronger of faith 1.7 = buwaytress I believe it will be like last jump, all the hash will come back to insure bitcoin difficulty continues upward while gaming the cash eda. I assume hobby miners such as myself will be turning on more hash power with air conditioning season ending and non-summer rates enabled. Some may even be considering turning off gpus and firing S7's back up. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 26, 2017, 01:14:03 AM Hey philip, thanks for getting this degenerate train back on track! Looks like the graph is getting over that huge blip, wonder if we'll get another surprise at the November mark? Let me be the first to show ye of little faith how the miners are returning to the comforting fold of Bitcoin with my positive adjustment guess ;) Edit: eh, abeandund appears to be stronger of faith 1.7 = buwaytress I believe it will be like last jump, all the hash will come back to insure bitcoin difficulty continues upward while gaming the cash eda. I assume hobby miners such as myself will be turning on more hash power with air conditioning season ending and non-summer rates enabled. Some may even be considering turning off gpus and firing S7's back up. It is why you picked +4.5 but the s-7 is at 47% for power and 53% for profit at hash nest. BTC is up to 3936 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,077,532,568,923 (-2.34%) Adjust time: After 895 Blocks, About 6.8 days Hashrate(?): 7,042,418,925 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.9 minutes 3 blocks: 32.7 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 21:10 (1.5 minutes ago) -2.34 % with only 895 blocks left gray line keeps dropping so time is running out for this jump we may do okay. next jump will be a bigger gain or not. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506388204 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: generalt on September 26, 2017, 03:05:40 AM Thanks for doing this again Phil. The old ones were fun.
+1.2 = generalt Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 26, 2017, 03:47:04 AM Philopolymath = Down -0.05% Numbers are in .1 So @ Philopolymath Your pick Would be -0.1 or 0.0 can not be -0.05 current picks below are good -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,088,389,700,117 (-1.36%) Adjust time: After 962 Blocks, About 7.2 days Hashrate(?): 7,291,915,721 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.4 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 8:15 (1.6 minutes ago) Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: Psi on September 26, 2017, 04:56:39 AM +3.2 = Psi
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: buyandhold on September 26, 2017, 11:12:15 AM -2.1 = buyandhold
Great to see this still going Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: leowonderful on September 26, 2017, 01:16:57 PM +2 leowonderful
Difficulty will probably continue to be turbulent but I don't think it'll be negative this time. Great to see that the game is still up and running though! Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: HerbPean on September 26, 2017, 04:15:26 PM -2.4 = HerbPean
Good old time! woot Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: alh on September 26, 2017, 06:29:07 PM +2 leowonderful Difficulty will probably continue to be turbulent but I don't think it'll be negative this time. Great to see that the game is still up and running though! While there is plenty of time for you to be proven right, right now the chart is still solidly in negative territory. Does anybody know how long the EDA phase lasts for BCC? Is that an indefinite "feature"? It seems like it can really shift SHA-256 hashing back and forth pretty hard against BTC. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 26, 2017, 09:30:52 PM current picks below are good
-2.4 = HerbPean -2.1 = buyandhold -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 2.0 = leowonderful 3.2 = Psi 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,061,430,834,013 (-3.80%) Adjust time: After 781 Blocks, About 6.0 days Hashrate(?): 7,085,293,741 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 11.0 minutes 3 blocks: 33.0 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: gray line on chart is deep in negative territory https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: vapourminer on September 27, 2017, 12:19:19 AM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5
is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 27, 2017, 01:38:06 AM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5 is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? no we have had spreads over 10.0 we used to get 50 to 75 pickers.. so people would pick over a wide area we could still switch to positive but time is running out for that Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,061,930,245,452 (-3.76%) Adjust time: After 751 Blocks, About 5.7 days Hashrate(?): 7,076,954,695 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.9 minutes 3 blocks: 32.9 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 21:35 (2.2 minutes ago) if you look below we dropped more on that grey line https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506476104 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: Landy1264 on September 27, 2017, 01:36:06 PM -2.6 = Landy1264
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: Tomintx on September 27, 2017, 01:36:37 PM -0.2 = Tomintx
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 27, 2017, 01:37:22 PM current picks below are good -2.6 = Landy1264 -2.4 = HerbPean -2.1 = buyandhold -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done -0.2 = Tomintx 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 2.0 = leowonderful 3.2 = Psi 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,068,421,546,804 (-3.17%) Adjust time: After 681 Blocks, About 5.1 days Hashrate(?): 6,864,668,945 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.7 minutes 3 blocks: 32.0 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 9:30 (7.9 minutes ago) gray line on chart is deep in negative territory https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: leowonderful on September 27, 2017, 03:11:23 PM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5 The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 27, 2017, 04:49:50 PM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5 The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? Not sure about it and the effect it will have on prices. I now mine both coins as I don't want to get smacked by a huge price swing on either coin. One thing about bcc if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block. I solo mine it 4 or 5 hours once a week. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: leowonderful on September 27, 2017, 05:42:13 PM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5 The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? Not sure about it and the effect it will have on prices. I now mine both coins as I don't want to get smacked by a huge price swing on either coin. One thing about bcc if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block. I solo mine it 4 or 5 hours once a week. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 27, 2017, 05:57:15 PM 6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5 The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had? Not sure about it and the effect it will have on prices. I now mine both coins as I don't want to get smacked by a huge price swing on either coin. One thing about bcc if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block. I solo mine it 4 or 5 hours once a week. no the diff is 8x lower. so 14th on bcc is like 112th on btc https://i.imgur.com/F5HqFbl.png Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: HagssFIN on September 27, 2017, 07:37:37 PM Let's go with an even number guess. :)
-2.0 = HagssFIN Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 27, 2017, 08:23:40 PM current picks below are good
-2.6 = Landy1264 -2.4 = HerbPean -2.1 = buyandhold -2.0 = HagssFIN -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done -0.2 = Tomintx 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 2.0 = leowonderful 3.2 = Psi 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,062,529,697,732 (-3.70%) Adjust time: After 642 Blocks, About 4.8 days .................... picking ends at 516 Hashrate(?): 6,784,077,715 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.2 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: gray line on chart is deep in negative territory https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: pusttiu on September 28, 2017, 09:38:38 AM -2.5 = pusttiu
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 28, 2017, 01:45:24 PM A few more blocks and picks close.
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 28, 2017, 09:32:43 PM current picks below are good -2.6 = Landy1264 -2.5 = pusttiu -2.4 = HerbPean -2.1 = buyandhold -2.0 = HagssFIN -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done -0.2 = Tomintx 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 2.0 = leowonderful 3.2 = Psi 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. gray line on chart is deep in negative territory https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 so picks are closed now and all of us are too high https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,049,092,884,488 (-4.92%) Adjust time: After 465 Blocks, About 3.5 days Hashrate(?): 7,242,971,777 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.5 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 17:30 (4.5 minutes ago) Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on September 29, 2017, 03:42:11 AM Drifted to about -5.0%
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: vapourminer on September 29, 2017, 12:52:49 PM Drifted to about -5.0% heh. good for btc miners, sucks for us contestants ;D Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on September 29, 2017, 01:30:54 PM Drifted to about -5.0% heh. good for btc miners, sucks for us contestants ;D https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,050,635,868,389 (-4.78%) Adjust time: After 359 Blocks, About 2.7 days Hashrate(?): 7,655,696,572 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.7 minutes 3 blocks: 32.0 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 9:25 (4.6 minutes ago) We still could have a winner The gray line is rising the shift back to btc is happening: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506691505 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: alh on September 29, 2017, 07:18:52 PM While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops.
Just some random thoughts...... Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: buyandhold on September 29, 2017, 08:06:08 PM While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops. fork.lol is a handy site for this http://fork.lol/pow/hashrateJust some random thoughts...... Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: abeandund on September 29, 2017, 10:23:25 PM While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops. fork.lol is a handy site for this http://fork.lol/pow/hashrateJust some random thoughts...... or this one to see if/when anyone is on the cash chain: https://statocashi.info/dashboard/db/mining?orgId=1 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are now open! Post by: philipma1957 on September 30, 2017, 03:07:21 AM current picks below are good -2.6 = Landy1264 -2.5 = pusttiu -2.4 = HerbPean -2.1 = buyandhold -2.0 = HagssFIN -1.3 =VRobb -1.2 =philipma1957 -1.0 =vapourminer -0.5 = Philopolymath correction done -0.2 = Tomintx 1.2 = generalt 1.7 = buwaytress 2.0 = leowonderful 3.2 = Psi 4.5=abeandund New contest picks to end at block 516. Experimental Image Contribution: http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png Let's see how this holds up over time. If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil. gray line on chart is deep in negative territory https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403 so picks are closed now and all of us are too high https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,049,092,884,488 (-4.92%) Adjust time: After 465 Blocks, About 3.5 days Hashrate(?): 7,242,971,777 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.5 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 17:30 (4.5 minutes ago) we dropped a bit Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,057,789,095,435 (-4.13%) Adjust time: After 248 Blocks, About 1.8 days Hashrate(?): 8,153,311,803 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.4 minutes 3 blocks: 31.2 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 23:5 (2.0 minutes ago) Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: alh on September 30, 2017, 05:41:52 PM Looking for sure to be a pretty good decrease.....
Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,041,497,382,391 (-5.61%) Adjust time: After 169 Blocks, About 1.3 days Hashrate(?): 8,147,419,773 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.7 minutes 3 blocks: 31.9 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 12:25 (6.7 minutes ago) Based on the interesting link provided by abeandund, it looks like several hours ago, there was a huge drop in BCC difficulty. A couple of hours after that. there was a massive influx of hash rate. That increase obviously didn't come from hardware being installed and deployed, nor was it likely "idle hardware". It obviously was existing hashrate that was re-deployed. So until the next upward BCC adjustment, or the next BTC adjustment down, I expect BCC will have very short confirmation time because it's massive hash-rate (for now). This is such an interesting dynamic to watch, though probably not good for BTC long term. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on September 30, 2017, 06:21:16 PM Looking for sure to be a pretty good decrease..... Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,041,497,382,391 (-5.61%) Adjust time: After 169 Blocks, About 1.3 days Hashrate(?): 8,147,419,773 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.7 minutes 3 blocks: 31.9 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 12:25 (6.7 minutes ago) Based on the interesting link provided by abeandund, it looks like several hours ago, there was a huge drop in BCC difficulty. A couple of hours after that. there was a massive influx of hash rate. That increase obviously didn't come from hardware being installed and deployed, nor was it likely "idle hardware". It obviously was existing hashrate that was re-deployed. So until the next upward BCC adjustment, or the next BTC adjustment down, I expect BCC will have very short confirmation time because it's massive hash-rate (for now). This is such an interesting dynamic to watch, though probably not good for BTC long term. this dynamic shows all coins are truly alt coins. what it means for BTC I have plenty of ?'s and not many answers. I think it is good for all coins overall. 487706 (Main Chain) 2017-09-30 18:08:06 485856 (Main Chain) 2017-09-18 06:31:16 1850 coins made in 13 days 11.5 hours 12 x 144 = 1872 11.5 x 6 = 69 0% diff = 1941 blocks we are at 1850 so we are 91 blocks short of 0% Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: generalt on October 01, 2017, 03:48:28 PM Wow I was way off but I'm certainly not complaining!
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: abeandund on October 01, 2017, 04:57:07 PM Wow I was way off but I'm certainly not complaining! I'll second that from further off Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 01, 2017, 05:59:59 PM https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 1,103,400,932,964 Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,019,593,143,047 (-7.60%) Adjust time: After 40 Blocks, About 7.2 hours Hashrate(?): 7,517,993,954 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.8 minutes 3 blocks: 32.5 minutes 6 blocks: 1.1 hours Updated: 13:55 (4.2 minutes ago) maybe 8pm EST Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: vapourminer on October 01, 2017, 06:47:48 PM Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,019,593,143,047 (-7.60%) whats been the biggest drop in hashrate during this contest? curious as to whether we are seeing anything near record drops in hash rate change. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 01, 2017, 07:34:49 PM Estimated Next Difficulty: 1,019,593,143,047 (-7.60%) whats been the biggest drop in hashrate during this contest? curious as to whether we are seeing anything near record drops in hash rate change. -6 or -7 me thinks was the biggest drop https://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history History Date Difficulty Growth 18 Sep 2017.....1103400932964........19.58% 6 Sep 2017........922724699725...........3.89% 24 Aug 2017......888171856257..........-3.80% 9 Aug 2017........923233068448...........7.32% 27 Jul 2017 860221984436...........6.92% 17 Jul 2017 804525194568..........13.53% 2 Jul 2017.........708659466230..........-0.43% 17 Jun 2017 711697198173...........4.85% 4 Jun 2017 678760110082..........13.90% 23 May 2017 595921917085...........6.42% 10 May 2017 559970892890 7.28% 27 Apr 2017 521974519553 0.22% 13 Apr 2017 520808749422 4.24% 30 Mar 2017 499635929816 5.03% 17 Mar 2017 475705205061 3.24% 3 Mar 2017 460769358090 4.54% 18 Feb 2017 440779902286 4.41% 4 Feb 2017 422170566883 7.43% 22 Jan 2017 392963262344 16.64% 10 Jan 2017 336899932795 6.05% 28 Dec 2016 317688400354 2.43% 15 Dec 2016 310153855703 8.16% 2 Dec 2016 286765766820 1.76% 18 Nov 2016 281800917193 10.68% 5 Nov 2016 254620187304 0.40% 22 Oct 2016 253618246641 -1.90% 8 Oct 2016 258522748404 7.17% 25 Sep 2016 241227200229 6.82% 12 Sep 2016 225832872179 2.30% 29 Aug 2016 220755908330 1.56% 15 Aug 2016 217375482757 7.67% [/b]2 Aug 2016 201893210853 -5.43%[/b] 18 Jul 2016 213492501107 0.04% 4 Jul 2016.........213398925331 1.88% 21 Jun 2016 209453158595 6.83% 8 Jun 2016 196061423939 -1.63% 24 May 2016 199312067531 2.60% 11 May 2016 194254820283 8.73% 28 Apr 2016 178659257772 -0.01% 14 Apr 2016 178678307671 7.09% 1 Apr 2016 166851513282 0.82% 18 Mar 2016 165496835118 4.46% 4 Mar 2016 158427203767 -3.10% 19 Feb 2016 163491654908 13.44% 7 Feb 2016 144116447847 20.06% 26 Jan 2016 120033340651 5.89% 13 Jan 2016 113354299801 9.12% 31 Dec 2015 103880340815 11.16% 18 Dec 2015 93448670796 18.14% 6 Dec 2015 79102380900 8.77% 24 Nov 2015 72722780642 10.44% 11 Nov 2015 65848255179 5.77% 29 Oct 2015 62253982449 2.25% 15 Oct 2015 60883825480 0.12% 1 Oct 2015 60813224039 2.49% 17 Sep 2015 59335351234 4.17% 4 Sep 2015 56957648455 4.98% 22 Aug 2015 54256630328 2.95% 8 Aug 2015 52699842409 0.81% 25 Jul 2015 52278304846 2.35% 11 Jul 2015 51076366303 3.39% 28 Jun 2015 49402014931 -0.58% 14 Jun 2015 49692386355 4.42% 31 May 2015 47589591154 -2.50% 17 May 2015 48807487245 2.44% 3 May 2015 47643398018 0.07% 19 Apr 2015 47610564513 -3.71% 5 Apr 2015 49446390688 5.84% 22 Mar 2015 46717549645 -1.50% 8 Mar 2015 47427554951 1.59% 22 Feb 2015 46684376317 5.01% 9 Feb 2015 44455415962 7.71% 27 Jan 2015 41272873895 -6.14%----- I think this is it for the contest 12 Jan 2015 43971662056 8.20% 30 Dec 2014 40640955017 3.00% 17 Dec 2014 39457671307 -1.37% 2 Dec 2014 40007470271 -0.73% 18 Nov 2014 40300030328 1.76% 5 Nov 2014 39603666252 10.05% 23 Oct 2014 35985640265 2.81% 9 Oct 2014 35002482026 0.98% 25 Sep 2014 34661425924 16.20% contest did not start yet 13 Sep 2014 29829733124 8.75% 31 Aug 2014 27428630902 15.03% 19 Aug 2014 23844670039 20.86% 8 Aug 2014 19729645941 5.30% 25 Jul 2014 18736441558 8.08% 12 Jul 2014 17336316979 3.08% 29 Jun 2014 16818461371 24.93% 18 Jun 2014 13462580115 14.51% 5 Jun 2014 11756551917 12.44% 24 May 2014 10455720138 18.10% 12 May 2014 8853416309 10.66% 29 Apr 2014 8000872136 14.64% 17 Apr 2014 6978842650 14.04% 5 Apr 2014 6119726089 22.23% 24 Mar 2014 5006860589 17.80% 13 Mar 2014 4250217920 11.39% 28 Feb 2014 3815723799 21.92% 17 Feb 2014 3129573175 19.39% 5 Feb 2014 2621404453 19.49% 24 Jan 2014 2193847870 22.59% 13 Jan 2014 1789546951......26.16% 02 Jan 2014......1418481395......20.12% 21 Dec 2013......1180923195......30.01% Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s all jumps are here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0 I found an early thread pre contest but a diff thread. by me https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=781447.0 Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 02, 2017, 03:04:52 AM we spent 13 days and around 18 hours to do 2016 blocks. 487872 (Main Chain) 2017-10-02 00:27:46 485856 (Main Chain) 2017-09-18 06:31:16 so the bitcoinwisdom charts show a big -4 -5 % drop are not accurate. This contest is turning into a P.I.T.Å. I KIND OF FEEL . Bad info is being feed to hide true numbers look at the charts https://i.imgur.com/6MD0IDm.png Difficulty History Date___________Difficulty___________Change_______Hash Rate Oct 02 2017.........1,123,863,285,133.....1.85%.............8,044,926,758 GH/s Sep 18 2017.........1,103,400,932,964....19.58%............7,898,451,536 GH/s Sep 06 2017............922,724,699,726.....3.89%.............6,605,120,681 GH/s Aug 24 2017............888,171,856,257.....-3.80%...........6,357,781,793 GH/s Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: generalt on October 02, 2017, 03:24:41 AM Yeah definitely something strange going on with such a huge jump in such a short time. I really thought we were going to be -7%
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 02, 2017, 03:51:10 AM Yeah definitely something strange going on with such a huge jump in such a short time. I really thought we were going to be -7% I carefully checked. And the charts were wrong. We are still needing manual calculations as every source I find is so far off it feels that it is on purpose. Meanwhile coins are over 4400 and bcc is doing well. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: buwaytress on October 03, 2017, 08:30:26 AM So it had to drop and you guys were right to call that... but yeah, a second drastic drop also feels like we're being played. It begs the question if anyone has anything to gain my slightly manipulating the figures. I mean, a small adjustment may not have changed enough minds as this drop surely has. Suddenly the scenario you predicted two adjustments back looks to become more and more plausible, with hashpower zig zagging across BTC and BCC.
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: leowonderful on October 03, 2017, 01:23:12 PM Maybe Bitcoinwisdom is simply behind in data collection? Hopefully it’s feasible to do manual calculations for this because it seems nobody is accurately predicting difficulty anymore...
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 03, 2017, 03:06:41 PM Maybe Bitcoinwisdom is simply behind in data collection? Hopefully it’s feasible to do manual calculations for this because it seems nobody is accurately predicting difficulty anymore... yeah I can do it but it is a p.i.t.a. and I feel the data is not being held back but a real time current diff no one offers it . you just need to go to block 487872 that is the start of this diff 488142 (Main Chain) 2017-10-03 14:58:24 current block for this jump 487872 (Main Chain) 2017-10-02 00:27:46 first block for this jump so far 270 blocks made in 1 day and 14.5 hours so 144 for 1 day and 6 x 14.5 = 87 the 6 comes from a block every 10 minutes so 144 + 87 = 231 = 0% 270/231 = 1.1688 - 1 = 16.88% current jump up in diff so where do I get an accurate current diff in real time? Now why is the jump strong 16.88% because BCC did a diff adjustment of 3x. and all the bcc hash fled to btc but I feel like this is not being show because it shows a weakness in btc that has never been shown look below big earnings drop in bcc https://i.imgur.com/xwtA5hJ.png so hash dropped from 680ph+ https://i.imgur.com/paXiXdA.png to under 50ph thus causing the big raise in btc which is hidden in bitcoinwisdom charts https://i.imgur.com/tEK5HSc.png Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: TheQuin on October 03, 2017, 03:43:37 PM The bitcoinwisdom.com chart is showing the moving averages of the last 504, 1008 and 2016 blocks respectively for each line, so will always be very slow to catch up to a sudden shift in hashing power like we are now seeing since BCH. What is wrong with the bitcoinwisdom.com chart this time, that I've never seen before, is that the new difficulty should always be where the green line, the 2016 average, is when it changes. This indicates something is wrong with their data, maybe related to the recent downtime they had.
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 03, 2017, 03:57:32 PM The bitcoinwisdom.com chart is showing the moving averages of the last 504, 1008 and 2016 blocks respectively for each line, so will always be very slow to catch up to a sudden shift in hashing power like we are now seeing since BCH. What is wrong with the bitcoinwisdom.com chart this time, that I've never seen before, is that the new difficulty should always be where the green line, the 2016 average, is when it changes. This indicates something is wrong with their data, maybe related to the recent downtime they had. I know they do a rolling average but last chart right before the diff was far off. I also know these shifts in hash are huge between BTC and BCC . But the manual calculation I did is the realtime number off by 1 block at most. It would be nice to go to a website and know the diff is very close to real time. especially if we get a third viable 256 coin. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: TheQuin on October 03, 2017, 04:19:04 PM I know they do a rolling average but last chart right before the diff was far off. I also know these shifts in hash are huge between BTC and BCC . But the manual calculation I did is the realtime number off by 1 block at most. It would be nice to go to a website and know the diff is very close to real time. especially if we get a third viable 256 coin. What I'm getting at is the green line and the new difficulty should always meet. I've been watching that chart more than 3 years, the red difficulty always jumps to the green 2016 line. This time there is an error in the data, it's saying the new difficulty is not based on the hashrate of the last 2016 blocks which it obviously must be. The shorter timeframe lines are just there to give you an early indication which way it's going. Using 504 block average is still pretty slow to react to what we see happening now, but the shorter sample size you use the more variance you are going to get. So I'm not sure that another website could really give better charts than bitcoinwisdom. http://fork.lol/pow/retarget is useful as well especially the 2nd chart on this page http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 03, 2017, 04:33:17 PM I know they do a rolling average but last chart right before the diff was far off. I also know these shifts in hash are huge between BTC and BCC . But the manual calculation I did is the realtime number off by 1 block at most. It would be nice to go to a website and know the diff is very close to real time. especially if we get a third viable 256 coin. What I'm getting at is the green line and the new difficulty should always meet. I've been watching that chart more than 3 years, the red difficulty always jumps to the green 2016 line. This time there is an error in the data, it's saying the new difficulty is not based on the hashrate of the last 2016 blocks which it obviously must be. The shorter timeframe lines are just there to give you an early indication which way it's going. Using 504 block average is still pretty slow to react to what we see happening now, but the shorter sample size you use the more variance you are going to get. So I'm not sure that another website could really give better charts than bitcoinwisdom. http://fork.lol/pow/retarget is useful as well especially the 2nd chart on this page http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate I understand you bro. The bottom line for me is it makes the contest a lot harder to run. I was posting a chart with numbers that did not follow the true data. Running the contest years ago was a lot of fun. It is now becoming work not fun. Checking the real rate against the chart can be done. but I can not find a site that gives the diff rate based on the actual block. I certainly do not want to calculate it four or five times a day. Until some other site gets its act together. bitcoincharts was okay it went down maybe it is working. still dead https://bitcoincharts.com/ Blocks 481823 Total BTC 16.523M Difficulty 923233068449 Estimated 887736944047 in 1 blks Network total 7983858.406 Thash/s Blocks/hour 7.25 / 497 s I feel like it is a conspiracy. To keep the real time difficulty rate hidden from easy access. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: alh on October 03, 2017, 06:45:48 PM With regards to your desire to "get rid of" the Trezor, I have a suggestion. Maybe you should have a difficulty based contest, but use the first two digits to the right of the decimal point for the next adjustment. I realize that it makes this more of "lottery" than a skill based adventure. There really wouldn't be any realtime activity beyond the periodic summary of "spot" taken stuff. It might still not get it "gone" the next go around. It would seem though that a Trezor will have a "shelf life" to some extent, won't it?
Just a random thought. I agree that the whole thing with bitcoinwisdom is just plan "off". Can't tell if that's by design or defect. Maybe the mechanisms don't respond well to massive changes in actual hash rate (aka the "slosh" with BCC). Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: AtraxPool on October 04, 2017, 12:12:39 AM Especially if we get a third viable 256 coin. [/quote] I agree I have a feeling this BCC fork is not the only fork we will see in the near future. The more I see things developing the more I sense that there is something around the corner and it does not feel good! Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: philipma1957 on October 04, 2017, 12:59:17 AM well on a fun level it just is not here for me.
these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly. There is a shit ton of money involved well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion. I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread. in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: AtraxPool on October 04, 2017, 01:25:13 AM well on a fun level it just is not here for me. these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly. There is a shit ton of money involved well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion. I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread. in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made. There was a statement I read a while back that is starting to ring in my head over and over it was regarding hashcash and change of algorithm. It says. "A practical issue with switching to hashcash-SHA3 is that it would invalidate all existing ASIC mining hardware, and so is a change that would unlikely to be made except in the face of security risk." I have a feeling that something is waiting in the wings for bitcoin to fend off this BCC/BCH attack. which in my view is exactly what it is doing. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: buwaytress on October 04, 2017, 09:33:00 AM well on a fun level it just is not here for me. these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly. There is a shit ton of money involved well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion. I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread. in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made. If the contest is no longer fun, then I definitely agree with it being scrapped in favour for a discussion thread for difficulty - perhaps also locked and renewed after each adjustment. I wouldn't mind throwing in some of my weight to help out with a surely soul-sapping manual task of calculating - but will admit here I wouldn't know where to begin. Maybe once the thread comes up, we can all brainstorm for a different way to add a little competitive spice that we can also pay to be part of a prize pool ... predict number of blocks found by a collection of pools on a certain date? Predict the height on a certain date/time? Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: leowonderful on October 04, 2017, 12:32:37 PM I agree with buwaytress right now- with all the money and interests involved in mining right now the chances of guessing the difficulty is tiny, and even data is difficult to get at. Another competition in a discussion thread would be nice, but I don’t know what that competition could be about. I would suggest mempool size but the mempool spams nowadays are popping up everywhere. The next month will be crucial though.
Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: vapourminer on October 04, 2017, 12:37:11 PM well on a fun level it just is not here for me. these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly. There is a shit ton of money involved well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion. I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread. in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made. yeah if its not fun then its time to stop. too much hash controlled by a single entity, hash goes where they want. we would not be trying to predict a trend, we would be trying to predict one entities actions. Title: Re: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. Post by: abeandund on October 04, 2017, 05:28:29 PM maybe just select a block number, then guess the hashrate spit.
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