Bitcoin Forum

Hopefully bitcoinwisdom stays up for tracking.


This trezor is provided by trezor  they made an error on my order sent me too many black ones and not  enough white ones.

This generously fixed the order by sending me whites ones on their dime.

I told them I would do the next promo  and give away a black one.

While mentioning their generosity in fixing an error.

I also must mention  when btc added bcc trezor did a good job of allowing access to the bcc.

New contest picks  to start at block 1116.



rules to follow

old thread links

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2076073.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2057465.0

this Trezor https://shop.trezor.io/static/img/trezor_black.jpg

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number


-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998 
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler

+3.7  ! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress

+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer

+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5

+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC

Difficulty History

Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___   Hash Rate

Sep 18 2017	1,103,400,932,964	19.58%	7,898,451,536 GH/s
Sep 06 2017	922,724,699,726	3.89%	6,605,120,681 GH/s
Aug 24 2017	888,171,856,257	-3.80%	6,357,781,793 GH/s
Aug 09 2017	923,233,068,449	7.32%	6,608,759,726 GH/s
Jul 27 2017	860,221,984,436	6.92%	6,157,708,817 GH/s
Jul 14 2017	804,525,194,568	13.53%	5,759,015,666 GH/s
Jul 02 2017	708,659,466,230	-0.43%	5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174  .......... 4.85%.....   5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

Is..
-0.5 = Philopolymath
Available?

While it is available, it's WAY too early to try and pick. Read above for details on when you can actually "make a pick".

no as contest starts at block 1116

and I suggest you wait closer to the end of picks at   516.


look at all this hash on BCC

this is  a big  drop for btc  watch it for a while before you pick

we are -8% for  btc

look here often before you pick

https://pool.viabtc.com/


https://i.imgur.com/VFvn68n.png

AHH...THE COUNTDOWN to ADJUSTMENT...I just got it....DOH!

Ok I'll be quiet now and pay closer attention...
(I'm gunna pick DOWN BABY DOWN!!! anyway)
Can I get a wake-up call around block 600
And SHAME ON ANYONE WHO PICKS DIFF GO UP...Bad Vodoo Mojo on you..
They should be banned from contest..

+1.9

Am I doing this right? lol sorry first time. :)

Nope, too early and you might be too new a member to qualify for a pick...  phil will weigh-in shortly I'm sure...  ;)

Kool, just figured i'd give it a try. How do I know when to it starts? At a certain block or something?
And yeah, sorry, I am a noob. lol.

you have been on this site since 2016  but you have a big gap right here.



september 2017
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2062333.msg21526389#msg21526389


april 2016
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=424598.msg14533440#msg14533440


so  to be fair  your clock starts  sept 2017  which means  nov 2017  and 30 post minimum



______________________________________________________________________

this post is really bad

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2134724.msg21570188#msg21570188


this post is also bad

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2176471.msg21827839#msg21827839

____________________________________________________________________


but I don't hate guys that hustle so my 2 month rule with 30 posts  means  nov 2017 I will let you play.

As the dead time from 2016 to 2017 means you start the clock in sept of 2017

so make 30 posts and keep an eye on the threads. Nov 10 th or so and you are in.

Would like to play along but not been member long enough I don't think.

Been watching the diff its a difficult one to predict right now just like you said in another post the hashrate is being manipulated with switching to bcc.

you would be nov 1

Bitcoinwisdom has us at  +0.17

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,105,328,181,025 (+0.17%)
Adjust time:   After 1185 Blocks, About 8.9 days
Hashrate(?):   8,013,117,336 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   18:0 (3.7 minutes ago)

we start at block 1116




 PICKS ARE OPEN

-1.2  = philipma1957


picks close at 516


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,102,487,255,126 (-0.08%)

Adjust time:   After 1092 Blocks, About 8.1 days
Hashrate(?):   7,871,417,829 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   9:10 (6.9 minutes ago)

good luck to all!

Philopolymath = Down -0.5% (Oopps Corrected)

I'm with you, phil, and thanks for running the game. Keeps degeneracy alive!   :D

-1.3 = VRobb

Numbers are in .1

So

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

Your pick

Would be

-0.1 or

0.0

-1.0 =vapourminer

+4.5=abeandund

Numbers are in .1

So


@ Philopolymath

Your pick

Would be

-0.1 or

0.0

can not be -0.05

current picks below are good

-1.3 =VRobb

-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer



+4.5=abeandund



New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Hey philip, thanks for getting this degenerate train back on track! Looks like the graph is getting over that huge blip, wonder if we'll get another surprise at the November mark?

Let me be the first to show ye of little faith how the miners are returning to the comforting fold of Bitcoin with my positive adjustment guess ;)
Edit: eh, abeandund appears to be stronger of faith

1.7 = buwaytress

Ooppss Corrected to..

Philopolymath = Down -0.5

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,088,389,700,117 (-1.36%)
Adjust time:   After 962 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):   7,291,915,721 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (1.6 minutes ago)

Looks like the hashrate is switching again over at Via btc. 

my gut feeling is  this is great or terrible  just not sure which  it will be.

I believe it will be like last jump, all the hash will come back to insure bitcoin difficulty continues upward while gaming the cash eda.  I assume hobby miners such as myself will be turning on more hash power with air conditioning season ending and non-summer rates enabled.  Some may even be considering turning off gpus and firing S7's back up. 

It is why you picked +4.5

but the s-7  is at 47%   for power and 53% for profit at hash nest.

BTC is up to 3936 

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,077,532,568,923 (-2.34%)
Adjust time:   After 895 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):   7,042,418,925 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:10 (1.5 minutes ago)

-2.34 % with  only 895 blocks left

gray line keeps dropping  so time is running out for this jump  we may do okay.

next jump will be a bigger gain or not.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506388204

Thanks for doing this again Phil.  The old ones were fun.
 

+1.2 = generalt

+3.2 = Psi

-2.1 = buyandhold

Great to see this still going

+2 leowonderful

Difficulty will probably continue to be turbulent but I don't think it'll be negative this time. Great to see that the game is still up and running though!

-2.4 = HerbPean

Good old time!

woot

While there is plenty of time for you to be proven right, right now the chart is still solidly in negative territory.

Does anybody know how long the EDA phase lasts for BCC? Is that an indefinite "feature"? It seems like it can really shift SHA-256 hashing back and forth pretty hard against BTC.

current picks below are good

-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done


1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,061,430,834,013 (-3.80%)
Adjust time:   After 781 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):   7,085,293,741 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 33.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   



gray line on chart is deep in negative territory

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5

is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had?

no  we have had  spreads over 10.0

we used to get 50 to 75 pickers..  so people would pick  over a wide area

we could still switch   to positive  but time is running out for that

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,061,930,245,452 (-3.76%)

Adjust time:   After 751 Blocks, About 5.7 days
Hashrate(?):   7,076,954,695 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:35 (2.2 minutes ago)

if you look below  we dropped more on that grey line

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506476104

-2.6 = Landy1264

-0.2 = Tomintx

The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.

Not sure  about it  and the effect it will have on prices.
I now mine both coins  as I don't want to get smacked  by a huge price swing on either coin.

One thing about bcc  if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block.

I solo mine it  4 or 5 hours once a week.

Any blocks yet? Seems like a nice chain to mine on if you've got some Compacs or something similar, better odds than BTC and if you hit the lottery you still get a nice reward. I'll probably reconfigure my USB farm to BCH when I get back home, I don't like the chain in any other way though :/

no  the  diff is 8x lower.

so  14th  on bcc  is like  112th on btc

https://i.imgur.com/F5HqFbl.png

Let's go with an even number guess.  :)
-2.0 = HagssFIN

current picks below are good

-2.6 = Landy1264

-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold
-2.0 = HagssFIN

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done

-0.2 = Tomintx

1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.



Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,062,529,697,732 (-3.70%)  

Adjust time:   After 642 Blocks, About 4.8 days ....................  picking ends at 516


Hashrate(?):   6,784,077,715 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   




gray line on chart is deep in negative territory

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

 -2.5 = pusttiu

A few more blocks and picks close.

so picks are closed now

and all of us are too high
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,049,092,884,488 (-4.92%)

Adjust time:   After 465 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):   7,242,971,777 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   17:30 (4.5 minutes ago)

Drifted to about -5.0%

heh. good for btc miners, sucks for us contestants  ;D

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,050,635,868,389 (-4.78%)

Adjust time:   After 359 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   7,655,696,572 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   9:25 (4.6 minutes ago)



We still could have a winner

The gray line is rising
the shift back to btc is happening:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506691505

While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops.

Just some random thoughts......

fork.lol is a handy site for this http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate

or this one to see if/when anyone is on the cash chain: https://statocashi.info/dashboard/db/mining?orgId=1

we dropped a bit





Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,057,789,095,435 (-4.13%)
Adjust time:   After 248 Blocks, About 1.8 days


Hashrate(?):   8,153,311,803 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:5 (2.0 minutes ago)

Looking for sure to be a pretty good decrease.....

Bitcoin Difficulty:    1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:    1,041,497,382,391 (-5.61%)
Adjust time:    After 169 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):    8,147,419,773 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    12:25 (6.7 minutes ago)

Based on the interesting link provided by abeandund, it looks like several hours ago, there was a huge drop in BCC difficulty. A couple of hours after that. there was a massive influx of hash rate. That increase obviously didn't come from hardware being installed and deployed, nor was it likely "idle hardware". It obviously was existing hashrate that was re-deployed.  So until the next upward BCC adjustment, or the next BTC adjustment down, I expect BCC will have very short confirmation time because it's massive hash-rate (for now).

This is such an interesting dynamic to watch, though probably not good for BTC long term.

 

this dynamic  shows  all coins are truly alt coins.

what it means for BTC I have plenty of ?'s  and not many answers.

I think it is good for  all coins overall.


487706 (Main Chain)   2017-09-30 18:08:06
485856 (Main Chain)   2017-09-18 06:31:16


1850 coins made in 13 days 11.5 hours

12 x 144 = 1872

11.5 x 6 =     69


0% diff =   1941 blocks  we are at 1850   so we are 91 blocks short of 0%

Wow I was way off but I'm certainly not complaining!

I'll second that from further off

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964


Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,019,593,143,047 (-7.60%)
Adjust time:   After 40 Blocks, About 7.2 hours


Hashrate(?):   7,517,993,954 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   13:55 (4.2 minutes ago)


maybe 8pm EST   

whats been the biggest drop in hashrate during this contest? curious as to whether we are seeing anything near record drops in hash rate change.

-6 or -7  me thinks  was the biggest drop


https://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history


History
Date   Difficulty   Growth
18 Sep 2017.....1103400932964........19.58%
6 Sep 2017........922724699725...........3.89%

24 Aug 2017......888171856257..........-3.80%

9 Aug 2017........923233068448...........7.32%
27 Jul 2017   860221984436...........6.92%
17 Jul 2017   804525194568..........13.53%
2 Jul 2017.........708659466230..........-0.43%
17 Jun 2017   711697198173...........4.85%
4 Jun 2017   678760110082..........13.90%
23 May 2017   595921917085...........6.42%
10 May 2017   559970892890   7.28%
27 Apr 2017   521974519553   0.22%
13 Apr 2017   520808749422   4.24%
30 Mar 2017   499635929816   5.03%
17 Mar 2017   475705205061   3.24%
3 Mar 2017   460769358090   4.54%
18 Feb 2017   440779902286   4.41%
4 Feb 2017   422170566883   7.43%
22 Jan 2017   392963262344   16.64%
10 Jan 2017   336899932795   6.05%
28 Dec 2016   317688400354   2.43%
15 Dec 2016   310153855703   8.16%
2 Dec 2016   286765766820   1.76%
18 Nov 2016   281800917193   10.68%
5 Nov 2016   254620187304   0.40%

22 Oct 2016   253618246641   -1.90%

8 Oct 2016   258522748404   7.17%
25 Sep 2016   241227200229   6.82%
12 Sep 2016   225832872179   2.30%
29 Aug 2016   220755908330   1.56%
15 Aug 2016   217375482757   7.67%

[/b]2 Aug 2016   201893210853   -5.43%[/b]

18 Jul 2016   213492501107   0.04%
4 Jul 2016.........213398925331   1.88%
21 Jun 2016   209453158595   6.83%

8 Jun 2016   196061423939   -1.63%

24 May 2016   199312067531   2.60%
11 May 2016   194254820283   8.73%

28 Apr 2016   178659257772   -0.01%

14 Apr 2016   178678307671   7.09%
1 Apr 2016   166851513282   0.82%
18 Mar 2016   165496835118   4.46%

4 Mar 2016   158427203767   -3.10%

19 Feb 2016   163491654908   13.44%
7 Feb 2016   144116447847   20.06%
26 Jan 2016   120033340651   5.89%
13 Jan 2016   113354299801   9.12%
31 Dec 2015   103880340815   11.16%
18 Dec 2015   93448670796   18.14%
6 Dec 2015   79102380900   8.77%
24 Nov 2015   72722780642   10.44%
11 Nov 2015   65848255179   5.77%
29 Oct 2015   62253982449   2.25%
15 Oct 2015   60883825480   0.12%
1 Oct 2015   60813224039   2.49%
17 Sep 2015   59335351234   4.17%
4 Sep 2015   56957648455   4.98%
22 Aug 2015   54256630328   2.95%
8 Aug 2015   52699842409   0.81%
25 Jul 2015   52278304846   2.35%
11 Jul 2015   51076366303   3.39%

28 Jun 2015   49402014931   -0.58%

14 Jun 2015   49692386355   4.42%

31 May 2015   47589591154   -2.50%

17 May 2015   48807487245   2.44%
3 May 2015   47643398018   0.07%

19 Apr 2015   47610564513   -3.71%

5 Apr 2015   49446390688   5.84%

22 Mar 2015   46717549645   -1.50%

8 Mar 2015   47427554951   1.59%
22 Feb 2015   46684376317   5.01%
9 Feb 2015   44455415962   7.71%

27 Jan 2015   41272873895   -6.14%----- I think this is it for the contest

12 Jan 2015   43971662056   8.20%
30 Dec 2014   40640955017   3.00%

17 Dec 2014   39457671307   -1.37%
2 Dec 2014   40007470271   -0.73%

18 Nov 2014   40300030328   1.76%
5 Nov 2014   39603666252   10.05%
23 Oct 2014   35985640265   2.81%
9 Oct 2014   35002482026   0.98%

25 Sep 2014   34661425924   16.20%   contest did not start yet

13 Sep 2014   29829733124   8.75%
31 Aug 2014   27428630902   15.03%
19 Aug 2014   23844670039   20.86%
8 Aug 2014   19729645941   5.30%
25 Jul 2014   18736441558   8.08%
12 Jul 2014   17336316979   3.08%
29 Jun 2014   16818461371   24.93%
18 Jun 2014   13462580115   14.51%
5 Jun 2014   11756551917   12.44%
24 May 2014   10455720138   18.10%
12 May 2014   8853416309   10.66%
29 Apr 2014   8000872136   14.64%
17 Apr 2014   6978842650   14.04%
5 Apr 2014   6119726089   22.23%
24 Mar 2014   5006860589   17.80%
13 Mar 2014   4250217920   11.39%
28 Feb 2014   3815723799   21.92%
17 Feb 2014   3129573175   19.39%
5 Feb 2014   2621404453   19.49%
24 Jan 2014   2193847870   22.59%
13 Jan 2014   1789546951......26.16%
02 Jan 2014......1418481395......20.12%
21 Dec 2013......1180923195......30.01%

Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s






all jumps are here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0


I found an early thread pre contest but a diff thread. by me

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=781447.0

   
we spent  13 days and around 18 hours  to do 2016 blocks.





487872 (Main Chain)   2017-10-02 00:27:46
485856 (Main Chain) 2017-09-18  06:31:16


so  the bitcoinwisdom charts show a big -4 -5 %   drop are not accurate.

This contest is turning into a P.I.T.Å.

I KIND OF FEEL .

Bad info is being feed  to hide true numbers

look at the charts


https://i.imgur.com/6MD0IDm.png


Difficulty History

Date___________Difficulty___________Change_______Hash Rate
Oct 02 2017.........1,123,863,285,133.....1.85%.............8,044,926,758 GH/s
Sep 18 2017.........1,103,400,932,964....19.58%............7,898,451,536 GH/s
Sep 06 2017............922,724,699,726.....3.89%.............6,605,120,681 GH/s
Aug 24 2017............888,171,856,257.....-3.80%...........6,357,781,793 GH/s

Yeah definitely something strange going on with such a huge jump in such a short time.  I really thought we were going to be -7%

I carefully checked. And the charts were wrong.

We are still needing manual calculations as every source I find is so far off it feels that it is on purpose.

Meanwhile coins are over 4400 and bcc is doing well.

So it had to drop and you guys were right to call that... but yeah, a second drastic drop also feels like we're being played. It begs the question if anyone has anything to gain my slightly manipulating the figures. I mean, a small adjustment may not have changed enough minds as this drop surely has. Suddenly the scenario you predicted two adjustments back looks to become more and more plausible, with hashpower zig zagging across BTC and BCC.

Maybe Bitcoinwisdom is simply behind in data collection? Hopefully it’s feasible to do manual calculations for this because it seems nobody is accurately predicting difficulty anymore...

yeah  I can do it  but it is a p.i.t.a.

and I feel the data  is not being held back but a real time current diff  no one offers it .


you just need to go to block  487872  that is the start of this diff

488142 (Main Chain)    2017-10-03 14:58:24  current block for this jump
487872 (Main Chain)   2017-10-02 00:27:46 first block for this jump

so far 270 blocks made in  1 day and 14.5 hours

so 144 for 1 day
and 6 x 14.5 = 87   the 6 comes from a block every 10 minutes

so 144 + 87 = 231 = 0%

270/231 =  1.1688 - 1 = 16.88%  current jump up in diff

so   where do I get an accurate  current diff in real time?

Now why is  the jump strong  16.88%  because  BCC  did a diff adjustment  of 3x.


and all the bcc hash fled to btc

but I feel like this is not being show  because it shows a weakness in btc that has never been shown look below

big earnings drop in bcc
https://i.imgur.com/xwtA5hJ.png



so hash dropped from 680ph+


https://i.imgur.com/paXiXdA.png



to under 50ph  thus causing the big raise in btc which is hidden in bitcoinwisdom charts



https://i.imgur.com/tEK5HSc.png

The bitcoinwisdom.com chart is showing the moving averages of the last 504, 1008 and 2016 blocks respectively for each line, so will always be very slow to catch up to a sudden shift in hashing power like we are now seeing since BCH. What is wrong with the bitcoinwisdom.com chart this time, that I've never seen before, is that the new difficulty should always be where the green line, the 2016 average, is when it changes. This indicates something is wrong with their data, maybe related to the recent downtime they had.

I know they do a rolling average  but last  chart  right before the diff was far off.

I also know these shifts in hash are huge  between BTC and BCC .

But  the manual calculation I did is the realtime number off by 1 block at most.

It would be nice to go to a website  and know the diff is very close to real time.

especially  if we get a third viable 256 coin.

What I'm getting at is the green line and the new difficulty should always meet. I've been watching that chart more than 3 years, the red difficulty always jumps to the green 2016 line. This time there is an error in the data, it's saying the new difficulty is not based on the hashrate of the last 2016 blocks which it obviously must be.
The shorter timeframe lines are just there to give you an early indication which way it's going. Using 504 block average is still pretty slow to react to what we see happening now, but the shorter sample size you use the more variance you are going to get. So I'm not sure that another website could really give better charts than bitcoinwisdom. http://fork.lol/pow/retarget is useful as well especially the 2nd chart on this page http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate

I understand you bro.  The bottom line for me is it makes the contest a lot harder to run.

I was posting a chart with numbers that  did not follow  the true data.

Running the contest  years ago was a lot of fun.  It is now becoming work not fun.
Checking the real rate against the chart  can be done.

but I can not find  a site that gives the diff rate based on  the actual block.
I certainly do not want to calculate it four or five times a day.  Until  some other site gets its act together.  bitcoincharts was okay  it went down maybe it is working.

still dead


https://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   481823
Total BTC   16.523M
 
Difficulty   923233068449
Estimated   887736944047 in 1 blks
 
Network total   7983858.406 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.25 / 497 s


I feel like it is a conspiracy.  To keep the real time  difficulty rate hidden from easy access.

With regards to your desire to "get rid of" the Trezor, I have a suggestion. Maybe you should have a difficulty based contest, but use the first two digits to the right of the decimal point for the next adjustment. I realize that it makes this more of "lottery" than a skill based adventure. There really wouldn't be any realtime activity beyond the periodic summary of "spot" taken stuff. It might still not get it "gone" the next go around. It would seem though that a Trezor will have a "shelf life" to some extent, won't it?

Just a random thought.

I agree that the whole thing with bitcoinwisdom is just plan "off". Can't tell if that's by design or defect. Maybe the mechanisms don't respond well to massive changes in actual hash rate (aka the "slosh" with BCC).

Especially if we get a third viable 256 coin.
[/quote]

I agree I have a feeling this BCC fork is not the only fork we will see in the near future.
The more I see things developing the more I sense that there is something around the corner and it does not feel good!

well  on a fun level  it just is not here for me.

these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly.

There is a shit ton of money  involved  well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion.

I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread.  in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made.

There was a statement I read a while back that is starting to ring in my head over and over it was regarding hashcash and change of algorithm.

It says.

"A practical issue with switching to hashcash-SHA3 is that it would invalidate all existing ASIC mining hardware, and so is a change that would unlikely to be made except in the face of security risk."

I have a feeling that something is waiting in the wings for bitcoin to fend off this BCC/BCH attack. which in my view is exactly what it is doing.

If the contest is no longer fun, then I definitely agree with it being scrapped in favour for a discussion thread for difficulty - perhaps also locked and renewed after each adjustment.

I wouldn't mind throwing in some of my weight to help out with a surely soul-sapping manual task of calculating - but will admit here I wouldn't know where to begin.

Maybe once the thread comes up, we can all brainstorm for a different way to add a little competitive spice that we can also pay to be part of a prize pool ... predict number of blocks found by a collection of pools on a certain date? Predict the height on a certain date/time?

I agree with buwaytress right now- with all the money and interests involved in mining right now the chances of guessing the difficulty is tiny, and even data is difficult to get at. Another competition in a discussion thread would be nice, but I don’t know what that competition could be about. I would suggest mempool size but the mempool spams nowadays are popping up everywhere. The next month will be crucial though.

yeah if its not fun then its time to stop.

too much hash controlled by a single entity, hash goes where they want. we would not be trying to predict a trend, we would be trying to predict one entities actions.

maybe just select a block number, then guess the hashrate spit.