Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed.

[Tomintx]

-0.2 = Tomintx

[philipma1957]

current picks below are good

-2.6 = Landy1264

-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done

-0.2 = Tomintx

1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,068,421,546,804 (-3.17%)

Adjust time:   After 681 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):   6,864,668,945 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   9:30 (7.9 minutes ago)




gray line on chart is deep in negative territory





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

[leowonderful]

6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5

is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had?

The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.

[philipma1957]

6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5

is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had?

The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.

Not sure  about it  and the effect it will have on prices.
I now mine both coins  as I don't want to get smacked  by a huge price swing on either coin.

One thing about bcc  if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block.

I solo mine it  4 or 5 hours once a week.

[leowonderful]

6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5

is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had?

The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.

Not sure  about it  and the effect it will have on prices.
I now mine both coins  as I don't want to get smacked  by a huge price swing on either coin.

One thing about bcc  if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block.

I solo mine it  4 or 5 hours once a week.

Any blocks yet? Seems like a nice chain to mine on if you've got some Compacs or something similar, better odds than BTC and if you hit the lottery you still get a nice reward. I'll probably reconfigure my USB farm to BCH when I get back home, I don't like the chain in any other way though :/

[philipma1957]

6.9 spread so far. -2.4 to +4.5

is this one of the biggest spreads the contest has had?

The way things are going right now not surprised spread is pretty large. I guess EDA is just a "feature" of BCH now and it's just a cash cow for miners. At least it's delaying difficulty rises somewhat for us regular miners.

Not sure  about it  and the effect it will have on prices.
I now mine both coins  as I don't want to get smacked  by a huge price swing on either coin.

One thing about bcc  if you feel lucking you can solo mine it with a better chance of a block.

I solo mine it  4 or 5 hours once a week.

Any blocks yet? Seems like a nice chain to mine on if you've got some Compacs or something similar, better odds than BTC and if you hit the lottery you still get a nice reward. I'll probably reconfigure my USB farm to BCH when I get back home, I don't like the chain in any other way though :/

no  the  diff is 8x lower.

so  14th  on bcc  is like  112th on btc

[HagssFIN]

Let's go with an even number guess. 
-2.0 = HagssFIN

[philipma1957]

current picks below are good

-2.6 = Landy1264

-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold
-2.0 = HagssFIN

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done

-0.2 = Tomintx

1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,062,529,697,732 (-3.70%)  

Adjust time:   After 642 Blocks, About 4.8 days ....................  picking ends at 516


Hashrate(?):   6,784,077,715 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   




gray line on chart is deep in negative territory





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

[pusttiu]

 -2.5 = pusttiu

[philipma1957]

A few more blocks and picks close.

[philipma1957]

current picks below are good

-2.6 = Landy1264
-2.5 = pusttiu
-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold
-2.0 = HagssFIN

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done

-0.2 = Tomintx

1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

gray line on chart is deep in negative territory





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

so picks are closed now

and all of us are too high
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,049,092,884,488 (-4.92%)

Adjust time:   After 465 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):   7,242,971,777 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   17:30 (4.5 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

Drifted to about -5.0%

[vapourminer]

Drifted to about -5.0%

heh. good for btc miners, sucks for us contestants 

[philipma1957]

Drifted to about -5.0%

heh. good for btc miners, sucks for us contestants  

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,050,635,868,389 (-4.78%)

Adjust time:   After 359 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   7,655,696,572 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   9:25 (4.6 minutes ago)



We still could have a winner

The gray line is rising
the shift back to btc is happening:

[alh]

While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops.

Just some random thoughts......

[buyandhold]

While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops.

Just some random thoughts......

fork.lol is a handy site for this http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate

[abeandund]

While I completely spaced on getting in my pick, the gray trend line on bitcoinwisdom looks like we have had a bunch of hash rate arrive, presumably re-purposed from BCC mining. Is there a good way to tell if that's accurate? Is there a "BCC wisdom" equivalent? It would seem you could better correlate a BTC hashrate increase with a recent positive jump in BCC difficulty, and then the reverse when BCC difficulty drops.

Just some random thoughts......

fork.lol is a handy site for this http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate

or this one to see if/when anyone is on the cash chain: https://statocashi.info/dashboard/db/mining?orgId=1

[philipma1957]

current picks below are good

-2.6 = Landy1264
-2.5 = pusttiu
-2.4 = HerbPean

-2.1 = buyandhold
-2.0 = HagssFIN

-1.3 =VRobb
-1.2 =philipma1957

-1.0 =vapourminer

-0.5 = Philopolymath correction done

-0.2 = Tomintx

1.2 = generalt

1.7 = buwaytress

2.0 = leowonderful

3.2 = Psi

4.5=abeandund

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

gray line on chart is deep in negative territory





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1506461403

so picks are closed now

and all of us are too high
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,049,092,884,488 (-4.92%)

Adjust time:   After 465 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):   7,242,971,777 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   17:30 (4.5 minutes ago)

we dropped a bit





Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,103,400,932,964

Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,057,789,095,435 (-4.13%)
Adjust time:   After 248 Blocks, About 1.8 days


Hashrate(?):   8,153,311,803 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:5 (2.0 minutes ago)

[alh]

Looking for sure to be a pretty good decrease.....

Bitcoin Difficulty:    1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:    1,041,497,382,391 (-5.61%)
Adjust time:    After 169 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):    8,147,419,773 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    12:25 (6.7 minutes ago)

Based on the interesting link provided by abeandund, it looks like several hours ago, there was a huge drop in BCC difficulty. A couple of hours after that. there was a massive influx of hash rate. That increase obviously didn't come from hardware being installed and deployed, nor was it likely "idle hardware". It obviously was existing hashrate that was re-deployed.  So until the next upward BCC adjustment, or the next BTC adjustment down, I expect BCC will have very short confirmation time because it's massive hash-rate (for now).

This is such an interesting dynamic to watch, though probably not good for BTC long term.

[philipma1957]

Looking for sure to be a pretty good decrease.....

Bitcoin Difficulty:    1,103,400,932,964
Estimated Next Difficulty:    1,041,497,382,391 (-5.61%)
Adjust time:    After 169 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):    8,147,419,773 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    12:25 (6.7 minutes ago)

Based on the interesting link provided by abeandund, it looks like several hours ago, there was a huge drop in BCC difficulty. A couple of hours after that. there was a massive influx of hash rate. That increase obviously didn't come from hardware being installed and deployed, nor was it likely "idle hardware". It obviously was existing hashrate that was re-deployed.  So until the next upward BCC adjustment, or the next BTC adjustment down, I expect BCC will have very short confirmation time because it's massive hash-rate (for now).


This is such an interesting dynamic to watch, though probably not good for BTC long term.

 

this dynamic  shows  all coins are truly alt coins.

what it means for BTC I have plenty of ?'s  and not many answers.

I think it is good for  all coins overall.


487706 (Main Chain)   2017-09-30 18:08:06
485856 (Main Chain)   2017-09-18 06:31:16


1850 coins made in 13 days 11.5 hours

12 x 144 = 1872

11.5 x 6 =     69


0% diff =   1941 blocks  we are at 1850   so we are 91 blocks short of 0%