Bitcoin Forum

Well I've ridden many waves with BTC (yes check my bitcointalk account joining date) but have recently sold down (not completely out).

Here's my reasoning.
1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

good/bad decision?

Goodluck,
The Fajman

I pretty much agree, with the exception of your first reason. I'm a "moderate size blocker", I think Segwit2x with an expected 4-5MB max block size is still a reasonable proposal, but everything above that (especially > 8 MB) should be avoided and other scaling solutions should be preferred. So BCH can experiment with blocks that big what they like, but as an altcoin.

In my opinion, the reason why I think we're already in a bear market is that simply the upswing was too massive and driven mostly by speculation (some of them of the worst kind, e.g. MLM schemes and HYIPs). There were some good news this year - Japan's bitcoin-friendly regulation, the Segwit activation - but I don't see still a major adoption of Bitcoin in e-commerce, what could justify a massive rally.

The upswing we're currently seeing is probably a dead cat bounce - it takes longer than expected for a "first cat" to deflate, but there seems no way the price goes over $4100 or so again, and very, very slowly we're seeing "lower lows".

Thanks for the reply.

Yes I've HODLed in the past when it felt like a bounce and it was always carnage... expecting it to hit soon and relieved I've sold off a good amount.

The thing I've really been holding out for is a BTC ETF which I think will bring a lot of money into BTC from newbie investors who have money to invest but only know and trust the traditional approach. But that looks less likely in the short term and with all the derivative options out there it's hard to know what effect it will have on the underlying price of BTC.

I think you should have a better plan than maybe get back in if prices go back to 2k, because if they don't you probably will have to buy back at higher prices, specially if this is indeed the low. I think buy back in increments as the prices fall would be better.

The fork drama already happened not long ago, the block size discussion is some years old and China is banning Bitcoin since 2013. Maybe everything is more or less already priced.

Maybe this:

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy  

Contributes to your gut feeling?

I would not underestimate the Segwit2x fork. If the support for the proposal by miners and businesses stays the same than now (>90% miner approval for Segwit2x according to coin.dance (https://coin.dance/blocks)) then the fork will be dramatically different from what we have seen with Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin Cash was clearly branded as an altcoin, had replay protection and very low miner support. Segwit2x's mission is to be "the Bitcoin", they have probably invested in development and other resources, so they will do everything to assure that their chain wins. That can lead to the situation that the "original Bitcoin" will come in the situation Bitcoin Cash was at its start - with block times of more than 1 or even 2 hours, that would last for several weeks. Users could change to the new chain only because of this simple reason and make it more important than it seems now.

So I see definitively potential for that to be a major bummer for Bitcoin's price if the Segwit2x chain is not fastly marginalized (e.g. if miners go back to the original chain) or, alternatively, Segwit2x is accepted as "the Bitcoin".

Don't really have a plan to buy back in yet but will think it over.

The November fork prediction depends on what you believe will happen but I personally wouldn't bet against it eg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-20/-bitcoin-jesus-ver-sees-the-digital-currency-splitting-again

The China banning no longer seems to be just a threat but we'll let it play out, I think it will move the price (if it hasn't already) but not by that much.

No doubt wanting some money makes it an easier decision for me. I made the mistake of HODLing in 2011, then 2013... feels very similar to me.

Great topic.


I feel that this part is what I mostly think about. I think it is essential that every discussion about the future of Bitcoin should include topics about economic, business and global politics. That more voices could be hearing. Because that is what could kill Bitcoin. China is showing that. It was a political decision. And if the end goal of Bitcoin is just to worth millions without any utility in the real world, they will be more like deBears Diamonds than like a currency.

I have a feeling that you'll get a lot of people disagreeing with your choice. Bitcoin will always show promise to someone, no matter how much it drops or rises. However, I dumped after hodling and investing over the time of a year because of your reason #5 (I needed some cash). No matter how well BTC does, gotta put your own personal status above all else.

increasing the block size never solves anything. increasing the block size like this not only never solves anything but creates a lot more potential issues.
by the way taking too long to move coins and paying high fees issues are not solved by increasing block size to 8MB. they are solved on BCH because nobody uses it! the blocks are empty with a handful of tx. obviously you always have a place on an empty block the same way you have it on any other altcoin like Doge for example!

in case people did really switch to BCH and it was used to a point where blocks were nearly full, a simple spam attack (the same we have on bitcoin) can fill the blocks and we will be where we started. high fees and delays. and that is when blockchain size is being increased 8 times more than before:
bitcoin: 52,560 MB per year
bitcoin cash: 420,480 MB per year

will you be running a full node that is 200 GB or 2000 GB?

it is impossible to know what will happen with 2x fork at this point in my opinion.

China is a non-issue, it is more of a drama than a real thing. it is obvious in long run it will be back to normal which it has already started that way!

that is the only reason i agree with and i have done it myself.

not really.
it has always been a stable phase (accumulation) then a big and fast rise (rally) and then a small [in comparison] drop (correction) and that is the pattern that bitcoin follows.

anything is possible with bitcoin but i wouldn't keep my hopes up for 2K specially under normal circumstances that we can predict now.
as for BCH, that is an altcoin investment and like any other it is good as long as you don't buy into the bubble and buy before to dump in the bubble before the dump-phase.

if you have really come to that conclusion yourself and not just based on emotionally then it is a good decision even if it is wrong.

I thought so too but most comments seem to agree with my decision so far  :)

I don't disagree with that. The scarcity of it and the fact it's the original and been around for so long will guarantee it will always be in demand... but if it stays on its current path then i think other crypto coins will start to eat into its market share.

Nicely put and Completely Agree  :)

Your making a technical argument which i completely agree with and it may be a technical limitation we have to live with... but as a user when i transferred some coins recently with priority fees it took hours which never used to happen with BTC and didn't happen with BCH recently. I know there are other issues ie replay protection, etc. But when using the coins today, i'd prefer to use a different one right now.

Agree... i won't be buying too big if i do.

:) :) thanks for the feedback, guess we'll see if it's wrong or not... either way i'm not complaining with my profits :D

again this is not a valid comparison. nobody uses BCH! the blocks are empty! with your analogy most altcoins are better coins than bitcoin. but are they really?

there is no issue with replay protection :)
that is one of the things they did well and it has been working properly.

at the end of the day, that is all that matters ::)

I would not dump my whole stash if i were you, or at least yet.

Dumping 70% but keeping 30% of my bitcoins would be a much more sensible strategy. News from China is still a lot of speculation, and people are panicking too much and overreacting in my opinion. The price could easily go up again by the end of the month.

But yeah, btc is probably in a bubble and if the November hard fork does not go well, price is going to drop. But as i said, i do think that price is going to go up first before that happens.

What makes you think that BCH will fare better than BTC during the SegWit2x fork? Even without replay protection people could try to get their hands on both sides of the BTC/ SegWit2x fork. With BCH they will have neither. In addition we will then see 3 forks competing for the same hashpower, with BCH possibly having the weakest support from miners, merchants and the community.

I mean there's very likely going to be a BCH pump in anticipation of the SegWit2x fork. I just wouldn't be so sure about what comes after that.

Just my 2 Satoshis. Nothing wrong with taking profits. Good luck out there! :)

There is nothing wrong in dumping but the issues you raised as much as I agree with them, the last paragraph shows you are jumping the boat when its stormy but ready to jump back in when the price hit rock bottom in other to make another  massive profit. There is really nothing bad in being a profit motive individual but I am sure you will also dump you new bride BCH the moment the boat is being rocked as well.

Yup, thats about the split i did... couldn't bring myself to get rid of them all, still want to have a foot in the game :)


BCH is more of a long shot but I feel it's not a bad bet, wouldn't put too much in. SegWit2x will probably be a much better bet but I'll wait and see what happens.... BTC legacy doesn't feel like it's going anywhere in the long term

I do believe Crypto currency has a very big future for many of the same reasons Roger Ver has outlined both as a form of currency and more financial freedom/less government control. But unlike Roger Ver I'm not willing to dedicate my time or put my money on the line to support that goal, if i see profit i'll take it... hats off to Roger though, he's a bit of a legend.

I like your reasoning.

I agree with your point about the poor user experience - on one of the ethtrader subreddits, someone joked that their coin would be in trouble if it didn't work as advertised, you couldn't make transactions and the cultists declared that this was a design feature to make it more like gold. They were of couse laughing at Bitcoin Core. Segwit doesn't seem to have had much adoption, the blocks seem to have occasionally hit 1.3mg with some segwit transactions in them, but this is rare.

Bitcoincash is undervalued at the moment and is a good hedge.

Both of you are partly right and partly wrong, because both patterns exist. They're only on a different scale ;)

For example, if you look the very long term trend, then pooya87 is mostly right that the corrections are relatively small - but the bear markets can last for more than a year, as we have seen in 2013-2014, and they can also go relatively deep, but not often deeper than the high of the previous bubble (the 2013-14 cycle here, afaik, was an exception).

But what Fajman is describing is actually a part of the cycle - the typical bubble that "inflates" and then "deflates". So you're talking more about the short-term trend.  After every rally there were several up- ("dead cats") and downside ("carnage") waves. If $4970 was the high of the current cycle, then we already had one "carnage" crash, the second one should follow until October (IF we are in a bear market now, like I suspect).

Yep, but that is due to most Bitcoin businesses having still not adopted Segwit transactions because they must upgrade their whole software system (but there are some that have already, like Bitstamp), and due to GUI clients still not offering an easy to use option for Segwit. You still must go to the Debug console or the command line client, and Electrum has still no Segwit support for mainnet. So I think that will be a matter of time - I guess in late October we will see already much more Segwit adoption.

You don't seem very bright considering you said you would buy back BCash instead of the real Bitcoin, BCash being a joke coin with a dead github and a dead blockchain that ironically can't even fill 100 bytes of transactions, but i'll byte:

1. Roger Ver is a clown. We've had XT, Classic, Unlimited, Cash.. the list goes on. All altforks will fail and never will dethrone the real bitcoin. Segwit2x will join this list.

2. Segwit2x is a scam and will get nowhere:
https://medium.com/@WhalePanda/segwit2x-the-broken-agreement-e9035a453c05

3. China FUD is already priced in. They have nothing else to FUD with after the ban.

4. That's your decision.

5. Whatever you say, but don't buy a shitcoin instead of BTC when you want to get back in.

Main problem in one sentence: Never predict bottoms and tops. You gonna to hurt yourself and trading results with catching falling knife just for soaring profit on markets

I see no issues. China rumors has already subsided, Roger Ver is again trying to lure others into buying his bags, and yourself wanting more money is not other people's problem. You can dump, it's your freedom and it's your money, but to us here there seems to be no issue at all—not that we refuse to look for deeper meanings but really there isn't even one. November might cause a dip, but not that bad to throw our bags just because you told us so.

You have great points there mate, can really make a bitcoin lover think twice. But you see my friend, the unpredictability of bitcoin is what drives many bitcoin lovers like me to continue loving the coin and more. The thrills I get from the game is really something I cannot explain but at the same time, i cannot stop. I have never felt like this towards anything before and so I am sticking into it. If i lose my investments, then so be it. I don't care im going all in with this trip. Not just because of the thrill, but also because bitcoin has already proven itself worthy to gamble with. It has overcome many things in the past already and came out better every songle time. You say your afraid of the fork, i say i want it to happen already. And about china? Lol. If i have learnt something from the past, it is that if china bans something, invest on that something. Haha. And your fourth reason may be the only one that pushes your gut more than other points you have said.

Sadly, on your first reason, i cannot say anything. Because I ain't no tech expert. So i am just trusting this gut feeling i have. Just like you.

But anyways, we all have our own minds and believe what we wamt to believe in. So good luck to all of us, and i hope we all make right decisions. And if not, at least be happy that we stood strong with what we believed in.

Cheers mate.

I believe Bitcoin is in Bubble, a bubble that might explode very soon. I already sold my BTC to $USDT, but I will never shift to BCH no matter will happen. This is just a manipulation of associated whales to discredit Bitcoin (BTC) in the hardfork, so everyone would drop BTC, so whales could buy them all at the very low price.

OP don't listen to these flamers.  I don't blame you for selling.
Even the most hardcore bitcoin enthusiasts need cash money
sometimes, so buy yourself something nice. Something tangible.
I'm not entirely sure if you'll have an opportunity to get back in at
the price you said, but you can always get back in at some price.
You made a profit and that's all that really matters.

If it it will be a good or bad decision, we don't know since the result will be seen later on.

You have your own set of things that were considered that's why you made up a decision like that. It doesn't came up from nowhere but you made it based on your analyzation and literally on what you see. At the end of the day, that is your own precious coins after all so do what you want freely without a doubt.

Actually I think you are wrong about bitcoincash and OP is right.

Japanese financial company SBI has been giving a talk to a fintech conference, and here is what the CEO had to say:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ethxcc/status/910706407401328640


That's bullish for BitcoinCash

On reading your post,i could understand that you have analyzed very well bitcoin.China's drama has already ended.Bitcoin has proven that its no more in need of china.Roger ver is an antichrist of bitcoin and his decisions should not be taken in to consideration for our plans.The only thing that i could not understand is that how you have decided to buy BCH,a shitcoin instead of bitcoin.BCH is only alive since it is being pumped and dumped by some big whales for some quick profits.

BCH is just really good for short term trading and i cant see any reason to hold it up for long term purpose because this is just an another altcoin in the market which even really considered as a resemblance on bitcoin itself.China did really make some effects but as we saw bitcoins price did recover up somehow this signifies that it has a strong support from the community which cant easily be beaten up.

How you honestly describe a shitcoin.? i think bitcoin cash is not a shitcoin its just a hard fork of bitcoin its not just like the other ICO and other altcoin was created just to make a sales and getting more money and then they run and become not active to develop the coin.
For me there are developers that i think bitcoin cash can be develop but we will expect of some weaknesses of this altcoin since its not yet tested if there is a lot of people using bitcoin cash.. that is why other people are choosing bitcoin to stay and few in BCH. .

For now we are getting weak demand and anytime soon the price can be slowly decrease back again.. but the trends are keep increasing back again..

It definitely is an acceptable decision considering that
1) you are only selling some of your Bitcoin
2) Bitcoin has a fabulous run this year
3) there are uncertainties which you have pointed out.

It always is good to monetize your profits and enjoy the fruits of your labour.

Hopefully you sold them off yesterday or earlier today.  Prices have dumped a bit after being "stable" for a few days. Dropped $374 last 24 hours.   I just started buying  in the last week and I bought when it was at 4K.  Not a lot just a couple but still.  I see it as an opportunity to buy more. I'll hold what I have and try to buy a little more during the dip if I can. 

OP you mentioned making the mistake of holding in 2011 and 2013 .... If you had held them until today seems like those were really good decisions not bad ones. 

I got in at 4K early in the week :) Back in 2011 when you ran your computer (with a half decent GPU) for a couple of days and got a 50 BTC hit and you can sell it for $30... your laughing. When it goes to $20 per BTC, it was already considered 'to da moon', it's hard to hold on and not take profit over the years... that's another reason i like btc because it's been diluted over the years as many people get in/out.

With regard to the BCH debate in other posts... I'm not a BCH enthusiast (it would be more of a punt), rather I've changed my long held optimistic opinions on BTC legacy.

Yes, there are some events that will cause another dump of bitcoin.
Current price of bitcoin is $3610 and keep declining, even China still not ban bitcoin mining pools but market over react to this problem.
There are more good news about bitcoin development such as in Japan and Russia, but people don't care about that and their eyes are on China, waiting a sign to sell off bitcoin immediately.

Yeah bitcoin got so many things to deal, but I will stay with btc, I believe bitcoin can pass through all of that and will comeback stronger than before, and I understand the enthusiasm you got from BCH, BCH is a famous coin that say can replace bitcoin in the future, but I don't really interested in BCH, I dont see BCh as a long term investment coin

since 2x seems to be abandoned, I can only say this make BCH argument stronger. There is no reason for core not to at least 2x. The HD and bandwith space is clearly there, it does lower fees, and provides the end user options.

The BCH network has not imploded nor has the software failed as many predicted. Core are left without excuse as why to not entertain a blocksize increase.

Or at least I am yet to hear a cogent reason post facto BCH.

I get what you're saying and there is nothing wrong with getting out if it's best for you, but I'm going to stick it out for the long haul. I think Bitcoin still has a lot of potential to make big gains in the future and I'm willing to make a long term investment. The road could be bumpy at times but overall the price of Bitcoin has made huge gains over the last year. I just think we are still at the early stages of Bitcoin's development as a mainstream currency and investment.

I always thought of the same thing, give up on BTC and never look back because I lost some money trading BTC and Altcoin but I thought giving up will not bring back what I have lost, so instead I do my research, try to be careful on all my moves and always stay on the safe side. It sucks to see how much I lost but I love to see how much I started to gain back slowly.

1. LOLOLOLLOLOL Just look at bitcoin now and bitcoin cash, who have a better community support?
2. Alt coins of Bitcoin after the split of whatsoever will not kill bitcoin, always . remember. that!
3. China isn't the one who controls the whole Bitcoin system. ALWAYS . REMEMBER. THAT!
4. K.
5. BAD DECISION.

EXACTLY!. Bitcoin is not yet on it's "stable" stage it's still on it's infant stage, yet some people is luring out people to jump out to bitcoin and jump in into the split coins of bitcoin for their OWN BENEFIT. Lol. They should know Who got the support better, it is bitcoin or bitcoin cash, As For me, i will still stick out and still believe on what bitcoin can offer for the future change and development.

In this time of uncertainty, this is a test who are the one's who really trusted bitcoin enough and stay in the game.
Why all are chanting, if OP did that then it's fine, it's his life but one thing is for sure that one day he'll regret what he did. Let's OP learn the lesson from it.
Hardfork in November and China banning exchanges are only the challenges that btc will face, yes it's value will surely be affected and hovering slowly. But I'm too confident that after these bitcoin will let us taste the moon again.

Another hard fork in November will definitely hurt bitcoin if that happens. But honestly speaking BTC survived one hard fork why can't it survive another and continue its up trend? I still believe it will reach moon, I am continuing HODLing no matter what FUD arises.

Too much FUD for those who want btc to dips again, I will also keep mine and maybe buy some when wveryone gets panic again before November, just hope it will recover and rise on December.

Lol an actual hypocrite who says that bitcoin is a bubble and yet joined a sig campaign for bitcoin as a payment. Lol
It could explote but it will regain it's price again.
Price correction etc.
It is not a bubble like tulip mania, take note of that.

If Bitcoin can not recover after dump in November, do you ready with this situation?
All scenarios can changes any time, you need prepare some backup ways to avoid lose all your money.

If you are a long time investor or you are in for the long haul, I don't think you will worry and nervous because the price just plummeted. But for those traders who are in for shorting they will be disappointed but I'm sure that have a backup plan in order to mitigate their risk. Only weak hands dump and sell their coins during panic and they know nothing about backup plan either. But it seems that OP is a short day trading that's why he jump and exited because he is afraid to lose his invested in case the price goes down once more.

I do not think price goes below 2000$, but even if so, I would hold.

I entered BTC late (early 2015 I think), and all that I have is earned at a price much much lower than even 1200 (in fact, when it reached that high I thought I was very blessed), so going down till a point above that does not affect me much.

And for China, forks and all... we have had similar things (Fall of cryptsy, the gavin andersen and mike hearn vs. core discussion, and others) and Bitcoin went on and got stronger.

Maybe you are right with your thoughts, but it is true that we are in a giant bubble, but nobody knows when will it explode, or if bitcoin will just continue rising to an uncertainly price. But i dont know, we can expect a lot of things from all that involves cryptocurrencies. I would not dump my bitcoins, i will wait for a massive signal to drop them, i am fine with the price now.

The Fajman follow your gut and stick to your own plan, everyone in here should have a plan.
If you want out that's your choice and I support your decision. I hope you had a good ride and made some good money on it.

Yes Bitcoin is going into a new phase where we are pushing the scalability boundaries.
Forks are not the most best feature and certainly doesn't help.
I still believe in Bitcoin but have an exit strategy as well but it's slightly more down the line :)

Good Luck!

Giant bubble? If we had to believe a lot of the doom thinkers here, and the self claimed experts, the market was growing into a massive bubble before we even managed to hit the $1000 level again at the beginning of this year. Bitcoin is a tiny dot in the financial world, and it has proven that a relatively small surge in the adoption can get the price to go up significantly. If you think this is a giant bubble, wait for the day that institutions are going to use Bitcoin as their 'toy' - you'll see the largest ever bubble, which from that point will continue to swell. :)

ROFL - I like how there is people saying BC is in a bubble when it is 50% over the mean and NASDAQ composites is perfectly OK being over 70% from the mean.
...And if Bitcoin falls in the worst bearish market ever, nobody cares (except poor bastards like us), while we know what happens if NASDAQ falls

Besides, while the investors in NASDAQ are more or less stable, BC growth is exponential, and so should be the mean

Go figure!

there is no such thing as spam on the blockchain. transaction pay the fee that's it. make the block 8x bigger 1/4 the fee, and you are going to make it twice as expensive to "spam" you soon going to suck up all the "spammers" funds in this manner.

also 420 GB less than 1TB, 10TB is not that expensive to buy now, so what's the issue?

With the current market i really do not think that the price would fall below $2000 unless there is a real bad news regarding bitcoin and not about some country banning its exchange and alt coin market. As the OP said ,he got profit and he is wise enough to sell off his coins for now,as long as you are in profit ,it is a good decision and if you are certain that we will see another rally then you can purchase that again to ride the rally and make some profit,which i usually does after the price crossed $1000.

This is entirely your choice and nobody can and should influence your decision on it. However this is what I think:

Prices probably not going to fall below $2,000 even weather November hard fork, and people are uncertain. We have a lot of support at the 3000 level already, to breach 2000 would  need some major factors being irrational and dumping when they are panicking.

 however the price is a lot of room to grow in both this month and the coming months I believe that we will first recover to $4,000 per Bitcoin and potentially more.  but as you said you needed the cash,  and the price is still decently high so it's not a bad decision at all.

You're from 2011 and you claim BCH trash will be important in the future. And you're totally out of the bitcoin market. This is not normal sir. You should have adopted it much better.

At least, don't mention about BCH garbage.

Well at least you didn't panic dump when the price was at sub $3000 levels, so even though you are taking home a lower amount that you could be taking right now it is still a pretty good deal especially if you bought into bitcoin early enough anyways.

I beileve that we're going to go up to more than $4000 again next month because the bullishness seems to be back.

Personally, i'll be dumping 50% when the price hits more than $4000 and another 25% when the price hits $4500. There is still fuel left in the tank for the upwards direction this year imo.

Damn, man. You had money. Bitcoin is money. I hope you have something to spend it on, because now this money in fiat is definitely losing value every day...the clock is ticking.

This is the best reason to make a move. If you're not feeling it in your gut, you should unload. The challenge I have is that we haven't seen a dead cat bounce all year and you're worried because you think one is coming? Why? A shake out is good for future growth.

Great to hear this.

Buying decisions are so hard when based on price. I remember the summer of 2015 when the price had fallen back to the low $200s. I loaded up a bit, but not as much as I could have. I think now "what was I thinking?!" Why wasn't I buying more. And of course Ether is in the same territory and I totally think it's too high to buy, but today with Ether is no different than 2015 with Bitcoin.

It's hard to make sense of it. Hindsight is a mother fucker.

Well, thanks for sharing your story. Good luck to you. I hope there's some "fuck you" spending earmarked for your wallet-free stash.