Nice ride but i'm dumping

[Fajman]

Well I've ridden many waves with BTC (yes check my bitcointalk account joining date) but have recently sold down (not completely out).

Here's my reasoning.
1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

good/bad decision?

Goodluck,
The Fajman

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[d5000]

I pretty much agree, with the exception of your first reason. I'm a "moderate size blocker", I think Segwit2x with an expected 4-5MB max block size is still a reasonable proposal, but everything above that (especially > 8 MB) should be avoided and other scaling solutions should be preferred. So BCH can experiment with blocks that big what they like, but as an altcoin.

In my opinion, the reason why I think we're already in a bear market is that simply the upswing was too massive and driven mostly by speculation (some of them of the worst kind, e.g. MLM schemes and HYIPs). There were some good news this year - Japan's bitcoin-friendly regulation, the Segwit activation - but I don't see still a major adoption of Bitcoin in e-commerce, what could justify a massive rally.

The upswing we're currently seeing is probably a dead cat bounce - it takes longer than expected for a "first cat" to deflate, but there seems no way the price goes over $4100 or so again, and very, very slowly we're seeing "lower lows".

[Fajman]

Thanks for the reply.

Yes I've HODLed in the past when it felt like a bounce and it was always carnage... expecting it to hit soon and relieved I've sold off a good amount.

The thing I've really been holding out for is a BTC ETF which I think will bring a lot of money into BTC from newbie investors who have money to invest but only know and trust the traditional approach. But that looks less likely in the short term and with all the derivative options out there it's hard to know what effect it will have on the underlying price of BTC.

[Karpeles]

I think you should have a better plan than maybe get back in if prices go back to 2k, because if they don't you probably will have to buy back at higher prices, specially if this is indeed the low. I think buy back in increments as the prices fall would be better.

The fork drama already happened not long ago, the block size discussion is some years old and China is banning Bitcoin since 2013. Maybe everything is more or less already priced.

Maybe this:

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy  

Contributes to your gut feeling?

[d5000]

The fork drama already happened not long ago

I would not underestimate the Segwit2x fork. If the support for the proposal by miners and businesses stays the same than now (>90% miner approval for Segwit2x according to coin.dance) then the fork will be dramatically different from what we have seen with Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin Cash was clearly branded as an altcoin, had replay protection and very low miner support. Segwit2x's mission is to be "the Bitcoin", they have probably invested in development and other resources, so they will do everything to assure that their chain wins. That can lead to the situation that the "original Bitcoin" will come in the situation Bitcoin Cash was at its start - with block times of more than 1 or even 2 hours, that would last for several weeks. Users could change to the new chain only because of this simple reason and make it more important than it seems now.

So I see definitively potential for that to be a major bummer for Bitcoin's price if the Segwit2x chain is not fastly marginalized (e.g. if miners go back to the original chain) or, alternatively, Segwit2x is accepted as "the Bitcoin".

[Fajman]

Don't really have a plan to buy back in yet but will think it over.

The November fork prediction depends on what you believe will happen but I personally wouldn't bet against it eg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-20/-bitcoin-jesus-ver-sees-the-digital-currency-splitting-again

The China banning no longer seems to be just a threat but we'll let it play out, I think it will move the price (if it hasn't already) but not by that much.

No doubt wanting some money makes it an easier decision for me. I made the mistake of HODLing in 2011, then 2013... feels very similar to me.

[vit05]

Great topic.

so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions

I feel that this part is what I mostly think about. I think it is essential that every discussion about the future of Bitcoin should include topics about economic, business and global politics. That more voices could be hearing. Because that is what could kill Bitcoin. China is showing that. It was a political decision. And if the end goal of Bitcoin is just to worth millions without any utility in the real world, they will be more like deBears Diamonds than like a currency.

[player514]

Well I've ridden many waves with BTC (yes check my bitcointalk account joining date) but have recently sold down (not completely out).

Here's my reasoning.
1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

good/bad decision?

Goodluck,
The Fajman

I have a feeling that you'll get a lot of people disagreeing with your choice. Bitcoin will always show promise to someone, no matter how much it drops or rises. However, I dumped after hodling and investing over the time of a year because of your reason #5 (I needed some cash). No matter how well BTC does, gotta put your own personal status above all else.

[pooya87]

1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

increasing the block size never solves anything. increasing the block size like this not only never solves anything but creates a lot more potential issues.
by the way taking too long to move coins and paying high fees issues are not solved by increasing block size to 8MB. they are solved on BCH because nobody uses it! the blocks are empty with a handful of tx. obviously you always have a place on an empty block the same way you have it on any other altcoin like Doge for example!

in case people did really switch to BCH and it was used to a point where blocks were nearly full, a simple spam attack (the same we have on bitcoin) can fill the blocks and we will be where we started. high fees and delays. and that is when blockchain size is being increased 8 times more than before:
bitcoin: 52,560 MB per year
bitcoin cash: 420,480 MB per year

will you be running a full node that is 200 GB or 2000 GB?

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

it is impossible to know what will happen with 2x fork at this point in my opinion.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

China is a non-issue, it is more of a drama than a real thing. it is obvious in long run it will be back to normal which it has already started that way!

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

that is the only reason i agree with and i have done it myself.

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

not really.
it has always been a stable phase (accumulation) then a big and fast rise (rally) and then a small [in comparison] drop (correction) and that is the pattern that bitcoin follows.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

anything is possible with bitcoin but i wouldn't keep my hopes up for 2K specially under normal circumstances that we can predict now.
as for BCH, that is an altcoin investment and like any other it is good as long as you don't buy into the bubble and buy before to dump in the bubble before the dump-phase.

good/bad decision?

if you have really come to that conclusion yourself and not just based on emotionally then it is a good decision even if it is wrong.

[Fajman]

I have a feeling that you'll get a lot of people disagreeing with your choice.

I thought so too but most comments seem to agree with my decision so far  

Bitcoin will always show promise to someone, no matter how much it drops or rises.

I don't disagree with that. The scarcity of it and the fact it's the original and been around for so long will guarantee it will always be in demand... but if it stays on its current path then i think other crypto coins will start to eat into its market share.

No matter how well BTC does, gotta put your own personal status above all else.

Nicely put and Completely Agree  

[Fajman]

will you be running a full node that is 200 GB or 2000 GB?

Your making a technical argument which i completely agree with and it may be a technical limitation we have to live with... but as a user when i transferred some coins recently with priority fees it took hours which never used to happen with BTC and didn't happen with BCH recently. I know there are other issues ie replay protection, etc. But when using the coins today, i'd prefer to use a different one right now.

as for BCH, that is an altcoin investment and like any other it is good as long as you don't buy into the bubble and buy before to dump in the bubble before the dump-phase.

Agree... i won't be buying too big if i do.

if you have really come to that conclusion yourself and not just based on emotionally then it is a good decision even if it is wrong.

thanks for the feedback, guess we'll see if it's wrong or not... either way i'm not complaining with my profits

[pooya87]

~but as a user when i transferred some coins recently with priority fees it took hours which never used to happen with BTC and didn't happen with BCH recently.

again this is not a valid comparison. nobody uses BCH! the blocks are empty! with your analogy most altcoins are better coins than bitcoin. but are they really?

I know there are other issues ie replay protection, etc.

there is no issue with replay protection
that is one of the things they did well and it has been working properly.

~
  thanks for the feedback, guess we'll see if it's wrong or not... either way i'm not complaining with my profits

at the end of the day, that is all that matters

[Yuuto]

I would not dump my whole stash if i were you, or at least yet.

Dumping 70% but keeping 30% of my bitcoins would be a much more sensible strategy. News from China is still a lot of speculation, and people are panicking too much and overreacting in my opinion. The price could easily go up again by the end of the month.

But yeah, btc is probably in a bubble and if the November hard fork does not go well, price is going to drop. But as i said, i do think that price is going to go up first before that happens.

[HeRetiK]

What makes you think that BCH will fare better than BTC during the SegWit2x fork? Even without replay protection people could try to get their hands on both sides of the BTC/ SegWit2x fork. With BCH they will have neither. In addition we will then see 3 forks competing for the same hashpower, with BCH possibly having the weakest support from miners, merchants and the community.

I mean there's very likely going to be a BCH pump in anticipation of the SegWit2x fork. I just wouldn't be so sure about what comes after that.

Just my 2 Satoshis. Nothing wrong with taking profits. Good luck out there!

[goldade]

There is nothing wrong in dumping but the issues you raised as much as I agree with them, the last paragraph shows you are jumping the boat when its stormy but ready to jump back in when the price hit rock bottom in other to make another  massive profit. There is really nothing bad in being a profit motive individual but I am sure you will also dump you new bride BCH the moment the boat is being rocked as well.

[Fajman]

Dumping 70% but keeping 30% of my bitcoins would be a much more sensible strategy.

Yup, thats about the split i did... couldn't bring myself to get rid of them all, still want to have a foot in the game

What makes you think that BCH will fare better than BTC during the SegWit2x fork? Even without replay protection people could try to get their hands on both sides of the BTC/ SegWit2x fork. With BCH they will have neither. In addition we will then see 3 forks competing for the same hashpower, with BCH possibly having the weakest support from miners, merchants and the community.

I mean there's very likely going to be a BCH pump in anticipation of the SegWit2x fork. I just wouldn't be so sure about what comes after that.

Just my 2 Satoshis. Nothing wrong with taking profits. Good luck out there!

BCH is more of a long shot but I feel it's not a bad bet, wouldn't put too much in. SegWit2x will probably be a much better bet but I'll wait and see what happens.... BTC legacy doesn't feel like it's going anywhere in the long term

There is nothing wrong in dumping but the issues you raised as much as I agree with them, the last paragraph shows you are jumping the boat when its stormy but ready to jump back in when the price hit rock bottom in other to make another  massive profit. There is really nothing bad in being a profit motive individual but I am sure you will also dump you new bride BCH the moment the boat is being rocked as well.

I do believe Crypto currency has a very big future for many of the same reasons Roger Ver has outlined both as a form of currency and more financial freedom/less government control. But unlike Roger Ver I'm not willing to dedicate my time or put my money on the line to support that goal, if i see profit i'll take it... hats off to Roger though, he's a bit of a legend.

[alyssa85]

Well I've ridden many waves with BTC (yes check my bitcointalk account joining date) but have recently sold down (not completely out).

Here's my reasoning.
1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

good/bad decision?

Goodluck,
The Fajman

I like your reasoning.

I agree with your point about the poor user experience - on one of the ethtrader subreddits, someone joked that their coin would be in trouble if it didn't work as advertised, you couldn't make transactions and the cultists declared that this was a design feature to make it more like gold. They were of couse laughing at Bitcoin Core. Segwit doesn't seem to have had much adoption, the blocks seem to have occasionally hit 1.3mg with some segwit transactions in them, but this is rare.

Bitcoincash is undervalued at the moment and is a good hedge.

[d5000]

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

not really.
it has always been a stable phase (accumulation) then a big and fast rise (rally) and then a small [in comparison] drop (correction) and that is the pattern that bitcoin follows.

Both of you are partly right and partly wrong, because both patterns exist. They're only on a different scale

For example, if you look the very long term trend, then pooya87 is mostly right that the corrections are relatively small - but the bear markets can last for more than a year, as we have seen in 2013-2014, and they can also go relatively deep, but not often deeper than the high of the previous bubble (the 2013-14 cycle here, afaik, was an exception).

But what Fajman is describing is actually a part of the cycle - the typical bubble that "inflates" and then "deflates". So you're talking more about the short-term trend.  After every rally there were several up- ("dead cats") and downside ("carnage") waves. If $4970 was the high of the current cycle, then we already had one "carnage" crash, the second one should follow until October (IF we are in a bear market now, like I suspect).

Segwit doesn't seem to have had much adoption, the blocks seem to have occasionally hit 1.3mg with some segwit transactions in them, but this is rare.

Yep, but that is due to most Bitcoin businesses having still not adopted Segwit transactions because they must upgrade their whole software system (but there are some that have already, like Bitstamp), and due to GUI clients still not offering an easy to use option for Segwit. You still must go to the Debug console or the command line client, and Electrum has still no Segwit support for mainnet. So I think that will be a matter of time - I guess in late October we will see already much more Segwit adoption.

[manselr]

Well I've ridden many waves with BTC (yes check my bitcointalk account joining date) but have recently sold down (not completely out).

Here's my reasoning.
1. The Roger Ver vs Core discussions - I think he's right and would rather move to BCH than stay in BTC (this was nice watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R8ckM-TDHI). I get some of Cores arguments but it took way too long for me to move coins recently (and I paid a 'high priority' fee)... and that's just a crap user experience that i wouldn't get with other coins. I've been in application development for approx 20 years and have seen many discussions between tech geeks and business users... this just seems like another variant. Personality wise the core team seem very geeky (just look at the photos) and I'm guessing they all share very similar personality traits so they fail to see or identify with a diverse range of opinions (disclaimer - i don't know them personally so i may be wrong) .

2. The uncertainty in November with another fork. I'm guessing it won't go smoothly but difficult to know what will happen.

3. The china issues... there's enough threads on it but difficult to tell which way it will go in the long run.

4. I wanted some money, always comes in handy 

5. My gut feel - Since inception BTC has always followed a trend of a really high jump in price, followed by a few dead cats bouncing, followed by carnage... which i believe is still to come in the next month or so.

If BTC drops to less that 2K, i might buy back in... but I'll probably only buy BCH or see what other BTC fork comes out of November.

good/bad decision?

Goodluck,
The Fajman

You don't seem very bright considering you said you would buy back BCash instead of the real Bitcoin, BCash being a joke coin with a dead github and a dead blockchain that ironically can't even fill 100 bytes of transactions, but i'll byte:

1. Roger Ver is a clown. We've had XT, Classic, Unlimited, Cash.. the list goes on. All altforks will fail and never will dethrone the real bitcoin. Segwit2x will join this list.

2. Segwit2x is a scam and will get nowhere:
https://medium.com/@WhalePanda/segwit2x-the-broken-agreement-e9035a453c05

3. China FUD is already priced in. They have nothing else to FUD with after the ban.

4. That's your decision.

5. Whatever you say, but don't buy a shitcoin instead of BTC when you want to get back in.

[tiptopgemdotcom]

There is nothing wrong in dumping but the issues you raised as much as I agree with them, the last paragraph shows you are jumping the boat when its stormy but ready to jump back in when the price hit rock bottom in other to make another  massive profit. There is really nothing bad in being a profit motive individual but I am sure you will also dump you new bride BCH the moment the boat is being rocked as well.

Main problem in one sentence: Never predict bottoms and tops. You gonna to hurt yourself and trading results with catching falling knife just for soaring profit on markets