Bitcoin Forum

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

This is the most meaningless image and analysis I've ever seen so far! I saw tons of work, research and analysis, but this one is pure trash. Never trust these websites distributing these images.

Well.. the figure is basic economics and BTC is following the line.. the different fases also seem to make sense

Short answer: there is no proof either way.  

However, I don't think we are in a bubble. I think people are slowly clueing in to having a small part of their investment portfolio in bitcoin instead of or in addition to gold.  Bitcoin has limited coins like gold has limited mined weight. Bitcoin is drastically easier to transport and conceal then gold is. There is $8 trillion in gold holdings. Only $70 billion in bitcoin. As people figure this out in an exponential process (like flu spreading only slower) the relative market caps will close and bitcoin will be worth 100s of times what it is today. Hodl.

Nope, the information gap is still too large for us to reach the apex of user adoption. We are still in the early adopter phase, but are getting pretty damn close to the next stage. I think a major bank, government or corporation really has to start taking on Bitcoin for it to completely spread to the masses who are easily influenced by mass media.

The whole Chase, "Bitcoin is a fraud" thing certainly didn't help progress Bitcoin as I am sure a lot of older, institutional investors see more risk with Bitcoin - real or not.

Will the bubble of global fiat issuance ever slow down or stop?

Globally recognized that there is no financial asset in existence that offers better long-term store of value than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is deflationary, LIMITED in supply and not inflated like fiat. Bitcoin reached escape velocity 4-years ago in 2013 which means it cannot be stopped - cannot make it illegal or legal - governments/banks do not matter. Bitcoin cannot be controlled.

On the opposite end of the spectrum the global fiat bubble system broke a couple of decades ago.

Fiat around the world is forced to inflate issuance as its heavily infested, burdened and broken with:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-insurance fraud
-false claims and insurance loss-events
-stabilize regions after natural disasters
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-chargebacks
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)
-costs of auditors and budgetors and accountants to governments and businesses

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

Bitcoin is GLOBALLY held and sought after by people in almost every country - see global trade data by country or see this list:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1853019.0

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE STOP BLOWING BUBBLES OF EXTRA FIAT MONEY AROUND THE WORLD? (PLEASE NO MORE USD, EUROS, JAPANESE YENS, INDIAN RUPEES, CHINESE YUAN, MEXICAN PESOS - PLEASE STOP INFLATING AND MAKING BITCOIN SO VALUABLE)...stop this pumping
https://macromon.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/global-monetary-base.png?w=640
https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/04/26/the-chart-that-floats-overvaluation/ (https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/04/26/the-chart-that-floats-overvaluation/)

I think its more likely to be a bear trap but I only say this because I come from a parallel universe that has already invented time machines.

But in all present reality, the problem is this:

If BTC goes too much about $5k, it loses a lot of its utility as cheap way to send money. It will then simply be just another financial instrument of the rich. I know Wall Street could care less about using technology to help those less fortunate than themselves, so I see the potential for Wall Street dollars to keep flowing in like blind mice.

Point of the story: It's not a bull trap or a bear trap, its a range of $3500-$4500, approximately.

We're already past that, btc is not a cheap way to send money. Maybe if we're talking big transactions.
Fee's are somewhat ridiculous already for a usable "currency". More like store of wealth now.

I think this is really a big condition for us currently because here we can go toward the down and up both, here both chances are making us more puzzle whether to buy or not, And also here we have confusion that we should sell or hold the bitcoin that we have.
Well here we need to wait until a clear and cut decision came from the China government regarding bitcoin and ICOs exchange.
Here it seems that government is not looking to ban and they are thinking to do something new rules, well we have hope that we will see everything positive, not to go with negative hight of bitcoin travel.
Here to buy and also sell of bitcoin will be only a type of gambling with your money, so take decision in both directions.

omg.. i have seen this picture almost all the day, i saw it first like eight hours ago and it was first posted by a newbie (obviously a troll) trying to make fud and panic selling in this forum. And now it appears on allmost all the threads on this forum, what is happening? seriously you all have been manipulated by this picture?
I can not believe this.

All asset classes have formed bubbled and crashed.  Even if Bitcoin follows that pattern, it's not a knock against Cryptos, or evidence that they won't make a comeback ... it's just evidence that cryptos will follow normal market patterns.  But, about that chart, it's scalable ... If bitcoin pops to $8000 or $15000, or $50000 before the "crash", it would still fit within the basic pattern of that chart, which is why it's impossible to make any predictions based on that pattern ... we probably won't know if we are in the capitulation phase until we are well into the capituation phase.

OP, you could be right if $4900 was really the peak. But what if we still have a long way to go and the real peak is much higher? Remember that we have not seen something like Bitcoin before. It's deflationary, resistant to government control and makes moving value across borders very very easy.

By the way, this thread belongs to the speculation subforum.

You're right. It's all about relative context. 60% on a $5 transaction is too much. 0.1% on a $10,000 transaction is great.

We're not already past that because average people still use it as THE #1 CRYPTOCURRENCY. If we were past it, society would have already placed one of the several thousand altcoins in existence as #1. So, obviously, it still works.

While I do not trust the graph by OP. Below pretty much sums it up. Speculators will speculate and one will always be right and other will always be wrong. But question is who is right.

Edited:
With the implementation of lightening network and other possible developments after SegWit, we might be able to see micro transactions affordable once again with BTC.

What is wrong with the bubble, anyway? People are slowly adapting bitcoin and it hasn't reached the 1/4 of the world's population yet. That's why I don't see any reason for you to panic about it being a bubble. As a matter of fact, everytime the price goes way down, there are new supporters coming right up... many of them are probably newbies who were waiting for a perfect entry price. The cycle will repeat, and repeat, until it hits the $10,000 mark - and then it might go down for a little bit of correction... then here comes the new set of supporters. I hope you realize how the market psychology works. Maybe yes it is a bubble, but not until the grandson of your grandson becomes a grandpa. But for the mean time, let's make money out of it... don't be too scared amigo.

Simple answer would be no and no because no one really knows what we're in.

As was said before, classical TA and market predictions don't apply to bitcoin. We've seen it go against too many plausible predictions that seems correct at first only to get ignored by bitcoin's price movements. That's the beauty (and the worst thing) about bitcoin: its unpredictability.


Righteous people who have missed the boat that think bubbles are illegal ways to get your riches. Well it's wrong anyways as defined by most laws around the globe.

we are in a "dumbass" trap :)
it is when people make irrational decisions in a market that is harder to predict. there currently are a lot going on with bitcoin. the China FUD is finally over so the price is recovering but there are a lot more FUD on the way and the weak hands have not gone out yet they are now coming back and soon will panic-come-back to buy back at a more expensive price than they have sold. and soon will panic again and sell the same way with the new FUD about the upcoming fork.

It is definitely possible that we are in a bull trap right now. After all, we are in a bubble or nearing a bubble, and all bubbles must pop no matter what.

There is a lot of correlation between bitcoin price and the classic bubble chart. However, even if we are in a bull trap at the moment this isn't the highest price we are going to go to. Price is likely going to continue to climb, until at least end of the year.

Plus even if you buy in now, i'd say that by 2021, you'll still be in profit due to the fact that bitcoin prices triples around every 4 years.

I personally feel like the price has definitely grown too much in the past 4-5 months to safely call this a bubble. However if the prcie level sustains for long enough, we could potentially "grow out" of this bubble as the floor establishes and price stabilizes.

It's hard to say though, because i feel like even if this is a bubble and people know that it is a bubble, they will still pump the price up. I would not be surprised if price goes to something like $5k+ in less than a month if the current bullish trend continues either.

However, we could potentially go down to sub-$3000 levels if the bubble pops, which is actually not that bad when compared to the 2013 pop of the bubble. I think that markets have matured enough to not lose 70-80% of btc's value this time round, even when the bubble pops.

I don't agree with such statements and don't beleive bitcoin is a fraud or bubble. Seems like some have problems accepting the new reality that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies bring to us. And like it's in someone interest to keep users always in panic and always in fear especialy those who have entered the bitcoin world without proper knowledge and information. Don't beleive in such stories.

You shouldn't take the words from whatever entity trying to defame Bitcoin seriously. In JPMorgan's case, they are abusing their status to bring the price down so they can buy at lower levels.

They have already been accused of market manipulation. It's not for nothing that they have been buying themselves into Bitcoin ~ it's just a game for them. They state that Bitcoin is a fraud, but yet they have bought it. :D

Instead of people taking them seriously, they should use the lowered price to accumulate even more. If they don't, and keep waiting as always, they continue to miss out on buying at lower levels.

People for some reason always tend to wait for the price increase before they start buying. ::)

We have just been to a big "bubble" due to the recent news coming from China but the said bubble is not the same bubble as what others have been predicting. There are people who are still clinging to the idea that Bitcoin can go pop just like what happened to the tulip bulb centuries ago and they keep on showing us graphs and figures convincing us that they are really right in their projection and prediction.

Until now, those projections are still just projections because every time there can be dips caused by bad news Bitcoin eventually recovered and this is what is happening right now...slowly Bitcoin is climbing back because there is that continuing demand and trading for it. The market collapse that some are warning us remains to be so distant into the future and may never happen according to what they are predicting to be.

We live in a democratic space so we have no choice but to also hear those negative predictions and projections that these people think will really happen to Bitcoin. Many of them are well-meaning individuals but there are those who are doing it with their own business agenda pushing them to do so...and that is the sad part.

It doesn't match that well, it's a bit of a stretch to see the same thing in the two charts, some of us were hoping for another dip.

Chinese exchanges are closing, this might bring the price down a little but it won't stay down very long, there're bullish news everyday.

it could be a bull trap, why? considering thw news from china coming this 30th of september, big player will ride on the news  and make profit out of sorting. or it could a bullish since chinese are prepared about whats gonna happen this 3o, some or most are transfering their holdings to exchanges that arw out of the jurusdiction of xhinese govt

No, in fact it was the opposite - a coordinate bear trap caused by speculation on negative news. Now we are just returning to the growth trend that was before the FUD. Bull traps have very different patterns - they are short term spikes to levels lower than before the crash - this is not the case now, because Bitcoin went back to above $4,000 slowly in a course of 12 days, while the drop (bear trap) was very short lived - only 1 day long. Bear market can only be called after a very prolonged price decrease, at least 2 months.

i'm excited to see what happens in the next 1-2 years. segwit activation has enabled a lot of future innovations like schnorr aggregate signatures, MAST and the lightning network.

it's too early to say what the topography of the lightning network would look like (i.e. whether it would be centralized/hub-and-spoke), but it's fair to say that early testing shows promise. these things will allow lower fees -- perhaps much lower fees. for now, though, i agree with you. fees are too high to transact with the expectation of instant confirmation. but it's cheap and possible to send with 1-2 satoshis/byte and wait a day or two for confirmation.

Who said that they are closing they are opening because they let bitcoin once again Chinese are just ignoring rumors about what they spread so kindly stay happy that bitcoin is going once again they cannot banned bitcoin.

Every FUD only affects the newbies, once were confident that btc will keep moving, we don't easily get panicked on its news for it will keep on happening, it's not always on top but it makes the ride more exciting.

Yeah, I also think that this is very possible.  We already have the dip this year, and the current event shows bullish Bitcoin, Google accepting Bitcoin payment by implementing Bitcoin API to their site and the upcoming bitcoin upgrade.  I also believe right after all the nonlicensed exchanges shut down in China, comes the opening of licensed exchanges that will cater Bitcoin transaction in Chinese territory.  This is a bullish Bitcoin.  

The future of the price of BTC will depend on whether or not Wall Street decides that it is more important than everybody else on the planet. Since its a given that they do, its safe to say they have absolutely no concern for the skyrocketing transaction fees which make BTC a more expensive alternative to PayPal and Western Union.

Normally, this would set a limit on the price of BTC, but since the filthy rich see normal people as gum under their shoes and don't care about their needs or wants at all, I think bitcoin very well has the potential to go to $10,000+, with $20-$200 transaction fees becoming the norm.

That's OK because other more affordable, universally-employable cryptocurrencies are already in existence by the hundreds, and bitcoin will simply be the coin of Wall Street.

Well let me explain a bit for you, the perspective with which you are looking to it is a bit different. The wall street have to do nothing with the bitcoin price. Bitcoin price increases with the number of users. So, the wall street only talk about it and nothing more.
Coming to the transaction fee, the transaction fee will definitely increase with the increase in bitcoin price. At first these transaction fee was lesser because the price of bitcoin was less now it's above 5000 dollars and making it's way to $6k.
I think it will be better to accept the reality of transaction fees.

Bitcoin is still at the early stages and we still expect more bubbles in days to come. I think  $100,000 will be appreciated by all of us and by the grace of God we would get there before 2021 if the system continue to move according to the current rate. "It actually seeing to make sense the way bitcoin price is popping". I wish all the fiat is converted to bitcoin as this system is more transparent and reliable than the fiat systems of corruption and inflation we have now.

sorry to disappoint you but bitcoin is not some little stock that only belongs to and is being traded in US. it is a global thing that many different people from different places around the world with different economical backgrounds are investing in it.

have you even checked the volume that has been coming from China?
how about the volume that has been coming from Japan from the start of this year and specially after their biggest Forex broker added bitcoin to their platform?

in bitcoin, it doesn't matter how big you think you are in the fiat world (aka the wall street dudes) you will be a tiny fish in the see when it comes to bitcoin with all the whales that have been around for a while to accumulate lots of bitcoin.