Are we in a bull trap? We’re forever blowing bubbles

[CoinratZ]

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

[slowlii]

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

This is the most meaningless image and analysis I've ever seen so far! I saw tons of work, research and analysis, but this one is pure trash. Never trust these websites distributing these images.

[CoinratZ]

Well.. the figure is basic economics and BTC is following the line.. the different fases also seem to make sense

[acyclic]

Short answer: there is no proof either way.  

However, I don't think we are in a bubble. I think people are slowly clueing in to having a small part of their investment portfolio in bitcoin instead of or in addition to gold.  Bitcoin has limited coins like gold has limited mined weight. Bitcoin is drastically easier to transport and conceal then gold is. There is $8 trillion in gold holdings. Only $70 billion in bitcoin. As people figure this out in an exponential process (like flu spreading only slower) the relative market caps will close and bitcoin will be worth 100s of times what it is today. Hodl.

[smartbitcoininvestor]

Nope, the information gap is still too large for us to reach the apex of user adoption. We are still in the early adopter phase, but are getting pretty damn close to the next stage. I think a major bank, government or corporation really has to start taking on Bitcoin for it to completely spread to the masses who are easily influenced by mass media.

The whole Chase, "Bitcoin is a fraud" thing certainly didn't help progress Bitcoin as I am sure a lot of older, institutional investors see more risk with Bitcoin - real or not.

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

Will the bubble of global fiat issuance ever slow down or stop?

Globally recognized that there is no financial asset in existence that offers better long-term store of value than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is deflationary, LIMITED in supply and not inflated like fiat. Bitcoin reached escape velocity 4-years ago in 2013 which means it cannot be stopped - cannot make it illegal or legal - governments/banks do not matter. Bitcoin cannot be controlled.

On the opposite end of the spectrum the global fiat bubble system broke a couple of decades ago.

Fiat around the world is forced to inflate issuance as its heavily infested, burdened and broken with:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-insurance fraud
-false claims and insurance loss-events
-stabilize regions after natural disasters
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-chargebacks
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)
-costs of auditors and budgetors and accountants to governments and businesses

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

Bitcoin is GLOBALLY held and sought after by people in almost every country - see global trade data by country or see this list:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1853019.0

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE STOP BLOWING BUBBLES OF EXTRA FIAT MONEY AROUND THE WORLD? (PLEASE NO MORE USD, EUROS, JAPANESE YENS, INDIAN RUPEES, CHINESE YUAN, MEXICAN PESOS - PLEASE STOP INFLATING AND MAKING BITCOIN SO VALUABLE)...stop this pumping

https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/04/26/the-chart-that-floats-overvaluation/

[CoinClarity]

I think its more likely to be a bear trap but I only say this because I come from a parallel universe that has already invented time machines.

But in all present reality, the problem is this:

If BTC goes too much about $5k, it loses a lot of its utility as cheap way to send money. It will then simply be just another financial instrument of the rich. I know Wall Street could care less about using technology to help those less fortunate than themselves, so I see the potential for Wall Street dollars to keep flowing in like blind mice.

Point of the story: It's not a bull trap or a bear trap, its a range of $3500-$4500, approximately.

[drm]

I think its more likely to be a bear trap but I only say this because I come from a parallel universe that has already invented time machines.

But in all present reality, the problem is this:

If BTC goes too much about $5k, it loses a lot of its utility as cheap way to send money. It will then simply be just another financial instrument of the rich. I know Wall Street could care less about using technology to help those less fortunate than themselves, so I see the potential for Wall Street dollars to keep flowing in like blind mice.

Point of the story: It's not a bull trap or a bear trap, its a range of $3500-$4500, approximately.

We're already past that, btc is not a cheap way to send money. Maybe if we're talking big transactions.
Fee's are somewhat ridiculous already for a usable "currency". More like store of wealth now.

[noictib]

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

I think this is really a big condition for us currently because here we can go toward the down and up both, here both chances are making us more puzzle whether to buy or not, And also here we have confusion that we should sell or hold the bitcoin that we have.
Well here we need to wait until a clear and cut decision came from the China government regarding bitcoin and ICOs exchange.
Here it seems that government is not looking to ban and they are thinking to do something new rules, well we have hope that we will see everything positive, not to go with negative hight of bitcoin travel.
Here to buy and also sell of bitcoin will be only a type of gambling with your money, so take decision in both directions.

[l3sny]

omg.. i have seen this picture almost all the day, i saw it first like eight hours ago and it was first posted by a newbie (obviously a troll) trying to make fud and panic selling in this forum. And now it appears on allmost all the threads on this forum, what is happening? seriously you all have been manipulated by this picture?
I can not believe this.

[HashFace]

All asset classes have formed bubbled and crashed.  Even if Bitcoin follows that pattern, it's not a knock against Cryptos, or evidence that they won't make a comeback ... it's just evidence that cryptos will follow normal market patterns.  But, about that chart, it's scalable ... If bitcoin pops to $8000 or $15000, or $50000 before the "crash", it would still fit within the basic pattern of that chart, which is why it's impossible to make any predictions based on that pattern ... we probably won't know if we are in the capitulation phase until we are well into the capituation phase.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, you could be right if $4900 was really the peak. But what if we still have a long way to go and the real peak is much higher? Remember that we have not seen something like Bitcoin before. It's deflationary, resistant to government control and makes moving value across borders very very easy.

By the way, this thread belongs to the speculation subforum.

[CoinClarity]

I think its more likely to be a bear trap but I only say this because I come from a parallel universe that has already invented time machines.

But in all present reality, the problem is this:

If BTC goes too much about $5k, it loses a lot of its utility as cheap way to send money. It will then simply be just another financial instrument of the rich. I know Wall Street could care less about using technology to help those less fortunate than themselves, so I see the potential for Wall Street dollars to keep flowing in like blind mice.

Point of the story: It's not a bull trap or a bear trap, its a range of $3500-$4500, approximately.

We're already past that, btc is not a cheap way to send money. Maybe if we're talking big transactions.
Fee's are somewhat ridiculous already for a usable "currency". More like store of wealth now.

You're right. It's all about relative context. 60% on a $5 transaction is too much. 0.1% on a $10,000 transaction is great.

We're not already past that because average people still use it as THE #1 CRYPTOCURRENCY. If we were past it, society would have already placed one of the several thousand altcoins in existence as #1. So, obviously, it still works.

[clip123]

While I do not trust the graph by OP. Below pretty much sums it up. Speculators will speculate and one will always be right and other will always be wrong. But question is who is right.

Edited:
With the implementation of lightening network and other possible developments after SegWit, we might be able to see micro transactions affordable once again with BTC.

OP, you could be right if $4900 was really the peak. But what if we still have a long way to go and the real peak is much higher? Remember that we have not seen something like Bitcoin before. It's deflationary, resistant to government control and makes moving value across borders very very easy.

By the way, this thread belongs to the speculation subforum.

[no0dlepunk]

What is wrong with the bubble, anyway? People are slowly adapting bitcoin and it hasn't reached the 1/4 of the world's population yet. That's why I don't see any reason for you to panic about it being a bubble. As a matter of fact, everytime the price goes way down, there are new supporters coming right up... many of them are probably newbies who were waiting for a perfect entry price. The cycle will repeat, and repeat, until it hits the $10,000 mark - and then it might go down for a little bit of correction... then here comes the new set of supporters. I hope you realize how the market psychology works. Maybe yes it is a bubble, but not until the grandson of your grandson becomes a grandpa. But for the mean time, let's make money out of it... don't be too scared amigo.

[dothebeats]

Simple answer would be no and no because no one really knows what we're in.

As was said before, classical TA and market predictions don't apply to bitcoin. We've seen it go against too many plausible predictions that seems correct at first only to get ignored by bitcoin's price movements. That's the beauty (and the worst thing) about bitcoin: its unpredictability.

What is wrong with the bubble, anyway?

Righteous people who have missed the boat that think bubbles are illegal ways to get your riches. Well it's wrong anyways as defined by most laws around the globe.

[Herbert2020]

we are in a "dumbass" trap
it is when people make irrational decisions in a market that is harder to predict. there currently are a lot going on with bitcoin. the China FUD is finally over so the price is recovering but there are a lot more FUD on the way and the weak hands have not gone out yet they are now coming back and soon will panic-come-back to buy back at a more expensive price than they have sold. and soon will panic again and sell the same way with the new FUD about the upcoming fork.

[Yuuto]

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

It is definitely possible that we are in a bull trap right now. After all, we are in a bubble or nearing a bubble, and all bubbles must pop no matter what.

There is a lot of correlation between bitcoin price and the classic bubble chart. However, even if we are in a bull trap at the moment this isn't the highest price we are going to go to. Price is likely going to continue to climb, until at least end of the year.

Plus even if you buy in now, i'd say that by 2021, you'll still be in profit due to the fact that bitcoin prices triples around every 4 years.

[timerland]

This figure is popping up everywhere and seems to make sense.. Classic bubble or bullshit? Are we in a bull trap right now? Your thoughts please!

https://goo.gl/images/mbmDwk

I personally feel like the price has definitely grown too much in the past 4-5 months to safely call this a bubble. However if the prcie level sustains for long enough, we could potentially "grow out" of this bubble as the floor establishes and price stabilizes.

It's hard to say though, because i feel like even if this is a bubble and people know that it is a bubble, they will still pump the price up. I would not be surprised if price goes to something like $5k+ in less than a month if the current bullish trend continues either.

However, we could potentially go down to sub-$3000 levels if the bubble pops, which is actually not that bad when compared to the 2013 pop of the bubble. I think that markets have matured enough to not lose 70-80% of btc's value this time round, even when the bubble pops.

[BingoDog]

I don't agree with such statements and don't beleive bitcoin is a fraud or bubble. Seems like some have problems accepting the new reality that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies bring to us. And like it's in someone interest to keep users always in panic and always in fear especialy those who have entered the bitcoin world without proper knowledge and information. Don't beleive in such stories.