Bitcoin Forum

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Paid $1300
Mine ~100 BTC (guesstimated)
Sell for 220 BTC

Riding the ASIC buyer's wave ~

Good decision placing that batch 1 order!

+1 :D

+1 !!

I would buy this in a second if I had enough BTC.

Yeah I am not trying to be rude - just a little facetious.

Personally I would think very seriously about buying something with more than 1 month ROI.  If people are right about growth 73ghs will only get 1 btc a day in a month  :'(

Are all submodules hashing good. Does the unit crash frequently? Possible to post a cgminer API summary after lets say 1 day of continuous hashing?

Where are you in California?

How heavy is the equipment?

The offer ITT is the best thing price/performance-wise on the open market right now, but 200 coins is a lotta dough.

Edit: Would you accept in-person pickup? Depending on a couple factors it might be easier than traditional shipping.

That would mean tripling difficulty in a month. Sorry, won't happen.

The price/performance is right in line with asicminer blades currently, so neither a good deal or overpriced.

Would you be willing to do in-person pickup instead of shipped?

I think that's a link to your FPGA auction thread, if that was intentional, you may want to start a new thread in order to eliminate any possible confusion.

It's a fairly reasonable asking price considering unit in hand, escrow available and significantly quicker ROI then the ASIC USB miners I just received. I think a few bids will come in closer to auction end time.

I don't think it's a bargain at all, you are comparing it with ASICMINER blades which are hugely overpriced and that will NEVER reach ROI, so...

I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.

This is perfectly legit, no problem with that, but I have to say that I'm amazed to see how sellers clearly send confusing messages that can very much trick gullible noobs in making an impulsive buy... For "confusing messages" I mean calculating ROI at current difficult without taking into account any profitability decline rate, or comparing it with a piece of hardware (like the ASICMINER blades) that nobody sane, or at least looking for a ROI, would ever purchase.

Your math is wrong. For it to be unprofitable the difficulty has to gradually go x90 in the next 12 months.

Here:

https://i.imgur.com/xN9ZnNN.png

1,000,000,000 difficulty for June 2014 sounds extremely high, but it's not out of the question, just look here:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-ever.png

And consider that in the calculations above, apart from the increase in difficulty, all the other variables are in their "best case scenario" for you:

- 71GH/s, and we all know that 100% uptime is impossible
- 0,15usd/kwh, which is an electricity rate impossible to get in many countries

230BTC for 71GH/s delivered today may get a ROI, or may not. But I can tell you definitely that it is not a bargain as you suggest.

The profitability decline ration of 0.61 does not strike me as realistic in the current period when hashing power increases so quickly.

What I really want to know is this: if this machine can generate so much revenue, why would its owner want to sell it for even as much as 230 BTC?

Garbage in, garbage out? Ok, let's see where the garbage is:

• First, you keep the 71GH/s as hashrate, as it was possible to achieve 100% uptime
• Secondly, you keep the 0.15usd/kwh - ok, maybe your buyer is from the USA and can enjoy that price
• And thirdly, AND MOST IMPORTANT: you have the default 0.61 profitability decline on the calculator, which either means that a) you don't know what that variable means or b) you want some ignorant noob to be blinded by greed. The 0.61 yearly profitability decline, that's the garbage in you are talking about. A yearly profitability decline of 0.61 means that in twelve months, difficulty will only grow by x1.64. Are you really saying that you believe than in June 2014 the difficulty will only be 19 million?

OK, willing to accept an escrowed bet? I give you 3:1 odds on your favor, and I bet that difficulty in June 2014 will be at least double than 19million. But I know you will not accept, because you know very well that a x1,64 increase (or x2,32 as I propose in my bet) in difficulty in the next 12 months its just impossible.

As I told you earlier: it may reach 230BTC, or it may not. In my opinion it will probably b/e if it's delivered today, but the profit after b/e will be very low compared to the high investment. Personally, it's a risk I wouldn't take.

Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all.

Well, I don't think that ASICs will have the same resale value of FPGA's, as the latter can be used for other purposes, while bitcoin ASICs not.

Anyhow, please accept my excuses for hijacking both your auction post and this one. I think it's perfectly legit to try to get the maximum price the market is willing to pay for anything you or another member is willing to sell. It's just that I've been a noob too, I know that there are many variables to take into account when doing this kind of investment, and when I see old-timers making ambiguos claims about ROI or difficulty projections I feel bad for the noob that may feel the urge to "hop on the train", blinded by greed, because I realize that many of those noobs do not really understand the huge spike in difficulty we are going to face in the following months... Jeez, most of them do not even understand what the "yearly profitability decline" at bitcoinx.com/profit means, so they just leave the "0.61" value it comes there by default, which will for sure take them to believe they will have much greater returns that they will actually have.

That is about right.

Probably why he is selling it now...

Gotta give him a star for trying!

How is this relevant? What hardware can you buy right now that will give you a 30 day ROI?

It's a bargain at 150 coins but not at 230.

I doubt any of those bids are actually real. You'll never see the coins. That has been the complaint of most people who have been trying to sell Avalons and Avalon pre-orders on ebay, bitmit and here. There are a lot of people who make bids they later decide not to honor which drives the price way up. All of the reasonable people who actually have the coin to spend don't bid that high because they know they will lose money. But all of the sellers only ever see the high bids so that's what they believe their unit is worth.

With the next difficulty looking like it will be well over 15,000,000 before this unit arrives at the winners house, I don't see how it can ever make back its cost.

But if you actually get 230+ for it, good for you.

Not speaking to this specific item auction and its pricing, but I have had dealings in the past with Arvicco and they went very smoothly. The items he shipped to me were packaged extremely well and sent very quickly.

can get a better picture of what to expect outta the unit w/ ... http://www.coinish.com/calc/

for example: @ 1.3% diff increase / day, delivery a month out, given market rate stays same - only expect about $16k gross....

I posted this in the newbie thread, but I think it could do with repeating here.


^^^^ ... this. But let's try working backward. 80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.

Wow, that is insane!

Good move to sell it for that much.

Nice try, but you'll need to find a buyer who's a bit weak on the math too, otherwise you'll only get its value for its remaining mining life, which won't make up the difference between what you paid and the sum of your mining earnings.

I've gone over my math with the help of http://coinish.com/calc and I think I've been wildly over-optimistic. 209BTC would be the breakeven price, assuming the rate of change of difficulty remains unchanged. 26% per fortnight would breakeven at 165BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.msg2369876#msg2369876

But kudos on getting such a good sale price  8)

Agreed, caveat emptor is always a good rule. Have a nice day now  :)

if you were east coast I would make a push to acquire the funds for a local pickup..  i love the west coast but that adds some extra factors and timing