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Title: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: Kinetic915 on June 08, 2013, 10:20:24 AM Hello all,
What do you predict the bitcoin difficulty to be by the end of the year. Will most lower level asics (jalapeņo) be irrelevant? Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: KSV on June 08, 2013, 10:23:22 AM at least 130,000,000. Probably not irrelevant but negligible.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: wiggi on June 10, 2013, 10:30:26 AM if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart ;)
more like 2,000,000,000+ (<- edit: 200,000,000 of course, not 2 billion) (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: Voodah on June 11, 2013, 08:31:45 PM if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart ;) more like 2,000,000,000+ (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart. I was thinking it would be something like 150,000,000.. Can you explain to me how you get to such a number? Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 09:02:08 PM if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart ;) more like 2,000,000,000+ (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart. yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: mgio on June 11, 2013, 09:41:33 PM Around 100 million.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: kodo on June 12, 2013, 12:19:19 AM the newest ASICS today will be worth nothing by end of year
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: wiggi on June 12, 2013, 04:44:14 PM yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol Silly me, got confused with hashrate and difficulty chart. So, 200 million+ with current steep trend. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: .m. on June 12, 2013, 04:49:40 PM my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :
# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps]) daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September ## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now ## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh ## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !! #avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175 addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000 def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs ## reward through X days daysRunning=75 #days START=180 # days after 30.3. def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC ## costs usdPerBTC=109.0 btcPerChip=.09 # btc def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC (reward(),costs()) ## kncminer 175GHps chipsMining=1 chipHashSpeed=175.0 btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC powerConsPerChipPlus=500 daysRunning=71 def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day (reward(),costs()) Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: kodo on June 12, 2013, 10:21:16 PM If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: ftping on June 12, 2013, 11:43:10 PM my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend : # HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps]) daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September ## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now ## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh ## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !! #avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175 addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000 def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs ## reward through X days daysRunning=75 #days START=180 # days after 30.3. def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC ## costs usdPerBTC=109.0 btcPerChip=.09 # btc def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC (reward(),costs()) ## kncminer 175GHps chipsMining=1 chipHashSpeed=175.0 btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC powerConsPerChipPlus=500 daysRunning=71 def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day (reward(),costs()) Assumptions: - Most Avalon chips are shipped by ~July. - Chip users are able to build their clones and ship the majority of their products by September. - KNCMiner is successful with their 28nm process and does not run into any major delays with any part of the design, engineering, construction, production, and shipping processes. - BitFury isn't a scam, does not run into problems with the chips or design of their modules - The rest of Avalon B2 and B3 are received and up and running .. And I probably forgot some. If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated. Assumption: - The market value of BTC is not high enough to make up for the increased difficulty Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: No 1 on June 13, 2013, 01:51:09 AM $230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: notme on June 13, 2013, 03:19:08 AM $230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:) Difficulty is not measured in dollars. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: .m. on June 13, 2013, 11:09:31 AM ... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now.
re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!" ... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: spiral_mind on June 13, 2013, 07:37:17 PM I've read many people's estimates and ran some of my own and I would guess about 200 million by end of year.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: notme on June 13, 2013, 07:57:00 PM ... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now. re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!" ... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while. Higher price leads to higher difficulty. Higher difficulty does not lead to higher price. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: cp1 on June 13, 2013, 07:58:57 PM If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: servicelabs on June 16, 2013, 12:08:24 PM Around 200 million.
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: elefter on June 16, 2013, 12:29:14 PM If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict. Im seeing double! :PTitle: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: cp1 on June 16, 2013, 06:56:03 PM Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: dan99 on June 17, 2013, 04:41:56 AM mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...
Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: jspielberg on June 17, 2013, 04:59:29 AM My spreadsheet which doesn't try to time when any particular asics are being deployed forecasts 400,000,000+ difficulty by January 1st.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c&usp=sharing Again, this is purely an extrapolated exponential forecast which trends to past difficulty fairly well, but will break down as the exponential is not permanently sustainable. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: lazydna on June 17, 2013, 05:01:21 AM mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ... that is different. avalon was the first asic machine. now you have to fight against all the preordered asics that were backlogged coming online now. not to mention the manufacturers using avalon chips to produce asic modules that are hitting 200+ g/hash. avalon only had to kill gpu's by offering 30x the power at 1/4 the power costs. now the best that can come is 4x the power @ slightly more power costs and cheaper up front costs. the gap between gpu--->asic 1st gen is much larger then the coming gap of asic 1st gen to 2nd gen. which means its less profitable for asics overall. i think an asic NOW, 60g/hash, would be profitable now. but getting a 60g/hash machine a month from now is very risky. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: hl5460 on June 17, 2013, 05:09:12 AM Currently the only actual and accountable ASIC is Avalon, others are vaporware. BTC garden may be a surprise of 100T. BFL is way behind and almost negligible.
So I predict that by the end of 2013. There will be around 650T hashing power. Title: Re: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic Post by: cp1 on June 17, 2013, 03:27:17 PM BFL is picking up steam -- at their current pace by the end of 2013 they will have shipped all preorders.
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