Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic

[Kinetic915]

Hello all,

What do you predict the bitcoin difficulty to be by the end of the year. Will most lower level asics (jalapeño) be irrelevant?

[KSV]

at least 130,000,000. Probably not irrelevant but negligible.

[wiggi]

if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart
more like 2,000,000,000+   (<- edit: 200,000,000 of course, not 2 billion)
(i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s)
76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart.

[Voodah]

if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart
more like 2,000,000,000+
(i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s)
76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart.

I was thinking it would be something like 150,000,000..

Can you explain to me how you get to such a number?

[Kinetic915]

if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart
more like 2,000,000,000+
(i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s)
76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart.

yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol

[mgio]

Around 100 million.

[kodo]

the newest ASICS today will be worth nothing by end of year

[wiggi]

yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol

Silly me, got confused with hashrate and difficulty chart.

So, 200 million+ with current steep trend.

[.m.]

my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :

# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps])
daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September
## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now
## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh
## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !!
#avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175
addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000
def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps
allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC
chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching
chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec
def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps
def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay  # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs
## reward through X days
daysRunning=75 #days
START=180 # days after 30.3.
def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC
## costs
usdPerBTC=109.0
btcPerChip=.09 # btc
def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around
btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC
def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC
(reward(),costs())
## kncminer 175GHps
chipsMining=1
chipHashSpeed=175.0
btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=500
daysRunning=71
def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day
(reward(),costs())

[kodo]

If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.

[ftping]

my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :

# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps])
daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September
## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now
## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh
## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !!
#avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175
addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000
def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps
allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC
chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching
chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec
def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps
def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay  # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs
## reward through X days
daysRunning=75 #days
START=180 # days after 30.3.
def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC
## costs
usdPerBTC=109.0
btcPerChip=.09 # btc
def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around
btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC
def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC
(reward(),costs())
## kncminer 175GHps
chipsMining=1
chipHashSpeed=175.0
btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=500
daysRunning=71
def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day
(reward(),costs())

Assumptions:
- Most Avalon chips are shipped by ~July.
- Chip users are able to build their clones and ship the majority of their products by September.
- KNCMiner is successful with their 28nm process and does not run into any major delays with any part of the design, engineering, construction, production, and shipping processes.
- BitFury isn't a scam, does not run into problems with the chips or design of their modules
- The rest of Avalon B2 and B3 are received and up and running

.. And I probably forgot some.

If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.

Assumption:
- The market value of BTC is not high enough to make up for the increased difficulty

[No 1]

$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)

[notme]

$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)

Difficulty is not measured in dollars.

[.m.]

... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now.
re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!"
... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.

[spiral_mind]

I've read many people's estimates and ran some of my own and I would guess about 200 million by end of year.

[notme]

... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now.
re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!"
... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.

Higher price leads to higher difficulty.  Higher difficulty does not lead to higher price.

[cp1]

If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.

[servicelabs]

Around 200 million.

[elefter]

If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.

Im seeing double! 

[cp1]

Im seeing double! 

Groovy