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Title: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: btc237ftw on June 09, 2013, 03:13:41 PM Does anyone know? Because I was looking around the forum and on several news sites and did not see anything that can be a bases for a sudden drop in price.
I am not trying to speculate here, I'm looking for a serious General-discussion about why this current drop accrued. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Elwar on June 09, 2013, 03:16:30 PM My guess would be one of those big million dollar investors from the bubble time is tired of seeing his money sitting in something that is not bringing a large return. So they moved on to something else.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Jgguy on June 09, 2013, 03:19:58 PM The hype over bitcoin is dying back down. Honestly it might be better this way as bitcoin needs people to use it to buy things, not hold it like gold.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: reg on June 09, 2013, 03:20:39 PM most of the channels for buying have been taken out! however I used localbitcoin.com for the first time today and was pleasantly surprised (included escrow etc). I do not know about selling though. the drop in my "opinion" is due primarily to market forces. on the plus side adoption seems to be growing exponentially-we may be close to a tipping point. reg
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: NeonRonin on June 09, 2013, 03:21:50 PM We're also going into the summer months for North America and Europe; people are going to want liquid cash to spend on holidays and vacations. I would suspect we'll see some volatility for the next month or two, with some great buying opportunities presenting themselves.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: CanadianGuy on June 09, 2013, 03:23:35 PM yeah everybody got confused when the media stopped talking about it for 5 days and started a panic. "OMG WE HAVEN'T MADE HEADLINES FOR TOO LONG, SELL SELL SELL. THE HYPE IS GONE".
Umm yeeeeah, i love daytrading Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: ChrisJ on June 09, 2013, 03:43:13 PM Someone else asked this. I have been following a guy on Twitter called @SirBitsALot and commented on it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=229979.msg2419960#msg2419960
He thinks it is price manipulation, someone dumping coins shaking weak hands out of their positions and then buying back lower. If true this would mean he must be quite bullish. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: ChrisJ on June 09, 2013, 03:44:13 PM It was because of this fake email which was distributed on Saturday night, and then the usual noobs started panic selling. And I publicly accuse the "fontas" moron of doing this. He "predicted" a crash on June 8/9, and spread the scam email to make sure it would happen so he could recoup the losses from his previous failed pumps and dumps. I won't reply to anyone about this, I've said enough on the BTC-e chat box already. It's because of scum like this guy that Bitcoin's price is so unstable and the end result is that more "serious" people who would be welcome to join Bitcoin avoid doing it. BTW, notice the pathetic invalid IPv4 address on the email, with one of the 4 numbers being 523... https://i.imgur.com/jvBXpsi.png This is interesting and would certainly have all the hall marks of Fontas MO. He tends to leave hidden messages for those smart enough to find them in his communications. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: btceic on June 09, 2013, 03:44:43 PM It was because of this fake email which was distributed on Saturday night, and then the usual noobs started panic selling. And I publicly accuse the "fontas" moron of doing this. He "predicted" a crash on June 8/9, and spread the scam email to make sure it would happen so he could recoup the losses from his previous failed pumps and dumps. I won't reply to anyone about this, I've said enough on the BTC-e chat box already. It's because of scum like this guy that Bitcoin's price is so unstable and the end result is that more "serious" people who would be welcome to join Bitcoin avoid doing it. BTW, notice the pathetic invalid IPv4 address on the email, with one of the 4 numbers being 523... https://i.imgur.com/jvBXpsi.png Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Micky25 on June 09, 2013, 03:45:14 PM it could have been
1. the 3 black helicopters floating around my home, shooting radio waves at my computer, 2. people realizing that soon all BTC-cashout options are destroyed, or 3. the asic guys (manufacturers) cashing out Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: vokain on June 09, 2013, 03:45:59 PM psychological shift is all
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: skilo on June 09, 2013, 03:47:16 PM The whole thing with Mt.Gox is probably causing most of it.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: QuestionAuthority on June 09, 2013, 04:04:07 PM Jeez, I'm sorry. I just wanted to buy a new Airstream trailer to vacation this summer and needed some cash. I had no idea you would all get bent outa shape over it.
jk Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Shawshank on June 09, 2013, 04:27:14 PM It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Welsh on June 09, 2013, 04:29:02 PM Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Stark-Fujikawa on June 09, 2013, 04:33:05 PM Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source. These people are time wizards of some sort. June 9 2013 is now a Saturday. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: reg on June 09, 2013, 04:43:09 PM It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.
I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: kjj on June 09, 2013, 04:48:11 PM It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change. I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: reg on June 09, 2013, 04:54:01 PM The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.
ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: kjj on June 09, 2013, 04:58:54 PM Quote from: kjj The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason. ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg. You really need to learn to use the quote feature. I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins. P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 05:02:59 PM Seems no one thinks a serious event caused the current drop.
My uneducated, newbie guess is manipulation plus fear. Not to mention, people are looking at the short term trend and saying to sell/short, helping to put more downward pressure on the price. I don't think it means anything as far as the And yes to kjj's comments. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: reg on June 09, 2013, 05:06:13 PM Quote from: kjj The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason. ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg. You really need to learn to use the quote feature. I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins. P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: lch on June 09, 2013, 05:08:19 PM I think that we are in a bubble. So its not unnatural for price to drop quite a bit.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Littleshop on June 09, 2013, 06:02:28 PM Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out. I would agree with this. Also small ASIC holders customers are more likely to hold and participate in the BTC economy while big players like ASICMINER are most likely to cash out. The balance has shifted to larger players until BFL and Avalon clones ship more. The ASIC transition is rough but necessary. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: doom309 on June 09, 2013, 06:28:27 PM all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Mahn on June 09, 2013, 07:56:57 PM all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price There are no "market news" that triggered this, that's the whole point of the discussion here; we have to guess because there is no explicit reason for the drop to be found otherwise. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Roy Badami on June 09, 2013, 08:34:30 PM most of the channels for buying have been taken out! Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA. Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price. roy Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 08:42:08 PM Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA. Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price. roy I was happy keeping money in Gox for awhile, and had a bunch of orders set up. But then I started getting nervous about the U.S. or Japan shutting Gox down (smarter people than me convinced me that was a possibility). If money transfers took hours or less, so I could buy and get the BTC out, I might think it worth the risk. But with it taking often a couple of business days to transfer money, I'm too nervous to put much into Gox now (with 20/20 hindsight, I wish I would have kept a little cash there to buy on this recent dip). I also can't help but wonder, since Gox now seems to be in the U.S. government's line of fire, are all U.S. Banks still willing to keep wiring funds there? Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Roy Badami on June 09, 2013, 08:52:41 PM I was happy keeping money in Gox for awhile, and had a bunch of orders set up. But then I started getting nervous about the U.S. or Japan shutting Gox down (smarter people than me convinced me that was a possibility). If money transfers took hours or less, so I could buy and get the BTC out, I might think it worth the risk. But with it taking often a couple of business days to transfer money, I'm too nervous to put much into Gox now (with 20/20 hindsight, I wish I would have kept a little cash there to buy on this recent dip). I also can't help but wonder, since Gox now seems to be in the U.S. government's line of fire, are all U.S. Banks still willing to keep wiring funds there? True... I don't keep any funds in exchanges, which means I can't trade - but then I'm not much of a trader. I prefer to just buy and hold, so Gox and wire transfers work for me. roy Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: manfred on June 09, 2013, 11:11:07 PM The only serious event is "The NSA files" (PRISM). As SHA-2 is made by the NSA and sits right at the heard of Bitcoin it puts up a lot of questions.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: BitAddict on June 09, 2013, 11:39:12 PM Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out. I would agree with this. Also small ASIC holders customers are more likely to hold and participate in the BTC economy while big players like ASICMINER are most likely to cash out. The balance has shifted to larger players until BFL and Avalon clones ship more. The ASIC transition is rough but necessary. +1 I think this is the key. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 11:41:59 PM The only serious event is "The NSA files" (PRISM). As SHA-2 is made by the NSA and sits right at the heard of Bitcoin it puts up a lot of questions. Did everyone trust the NSA before, but now with the exposure of PRISM, suddenly people think there's a greater chance that SHA-2 has a backdoor?Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: firefop on June 09, 2013, 11:48:05 PM all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price There are no "market news" that triggered this, that's the whole point of the discussion here; we have to guess because there is no explicit reason for the drop to be found otherwise. What about aurumxchange not dealing with bitcoin exchanges for awhile? Wasn't this the main way to move fiat between exchanges? Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: bluemeanie1 on June 10, 2013, 01:50:09 AM Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out. they could be pumping it up as well. It's fairly simple really, if ASIC Rigs were such a great asset, wouldnt the companies just be mining rather then vending hardware? Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: AliceWonder on June 10, 2013, 02:05:49 AM Seems no one thinks a serious event caused the current drop. My uneducated, newbie guess is manipulation plus fear. My uneducated, newbie guess is that this is a relatively young currency and I would be far more suspicious of manipulation if things like this didn't happen. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: AliceWonder on June 10, 2013, 03:19:45 AM which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies I'm not sure if it's just me but I had a hard time understanding the underlined. Is that redundant? from itself and other currencies? Anyways, with the ASICs coming out soon, what do you think the value of bitcoin will do for the the first couple of months? I feel like it will start to drop rather rapidly as people are trying to get their hands on more USD to compensate for their expenses. Then they would start to keep the BTC and the difficulty would rise so it would go back up? I feel like it will start to drop rather rapidly as people are trying to get their hands on more USD to compensate for their expenses. That's from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140793.0 Post #7 Coincidence? I doubt it. I think he nailed it. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: BitPappa on June 10, 2013, 03:56:37 AM What the hell? How did the (gox) price just jump from 96 to 110???
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Swapster on June 10, 2013, 05:40:54 AM Quote from: kjj P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only. That ignores depth of book. Who buys/sells only tells the story about the top of the book. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Swapster on June 10, 2013, 05:45:02 AM I was looking one minute on CBX - price was $95... ten minutes later it's at $106.
The problem with the BTC market is there are no professional market makers to provide stability. The Winklevoss twins should put their BTC to good use and create a MM firm. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: chufchuf on June 10, 2013, 05:45:40 AM What did they expect? btc is accepted at taobao, webmoney etc, its only ussa thats so political and liable and corporate and worried that their only export left is intellectual property, where the companies try to set up their own imitation coins lol
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: zby on June 10, 2013, 06:06:09 AM Does anyone know? Because I was looking around the forum and on several news sites and did not see anything that can be a bases for a sudden drop in price. I am not trying to speculate here, I'm looking for a serious General-discussion about why this current drop accrued. Buyers are out of cash. Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: vokain on June 10, 2013, 06:37:33 AM What the hell? How did the (gox) price just jump from 96 to 110??? the market is always right Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Crypt_Current on June 10, 2013, 06:40:06 AM Quote Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Yes! There was. A weekend. One of those weekends I actually wish I (was able to have) bought instead of mining :D ;) Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: b!z on June 11, 2013, 12:01:02 PM Mt Gox lag + panic selling.
Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: marlo_brando on June 11, 2013, 02:37:31 PM There has been a huge "asic rush" in the last days because several miners have become "available". Many meople might have moved their coins into buying some of those miners or a share in a "mining company".
If you look at the "custom hardware" section of the miners forum, you will see what is left of this "asic rush". Most of the group buys are over and people are back into market again. but this is only a theory! Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: btc237ftw on June 11, 2013, 04:00:04 PM Quote There has been a huge "asic rush" in the last days because several miners have become "available". Many meople might have moved their coins into buying some of those miners or a share in a "mining company". If you look at the "custom hardware" section of the miners forum, you will see what is left of this "asic rush". Most of the group buys are over and people are back into market again. but this is only a theory! Not a bad theory, I wonder if and what connection is there between the PRISM expose to this drop Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: Saint! on June 12, 2013, 08:20:51 AM Not a bad theory, I wonder if and what connection is there between the PRISM expose to this drop I saw a news story about a link but personally I don't think the recent sells have anything to do with it. Purely coincidence Title: Re: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? Post by: bitbybit2 on June 12, 2013, 08:35:50 AM My guess would be one of those big million dollar investors from the bubble time is tired of seeing his money sitting in something that is not bringing a large return. So they moved on to something else. Wrong. Speculation is based on some mega institution buying. I repeat buying and not selling an investment instrument. The drop is better for newbies but for the resilient miners the future is bright. |
