Bitcoin Forum

I'm in BTC for the long haul as it supports a healthier global economy (based on real investment not debt and pension raiding) as well as my own goals to increase my purchasing power and keep my wife happy!

I do accept however that a medium term dollar equivalent (at today's values not including hyperinflation) could be $1000 or $0 with a low (2 digit) dollar value being less likely than $0.

Would you therefore encourage friends or family to speculate on bitcoin? Would you feel bad if they did and bitcoin broke and became worthless? Would you avoid talking about this to avoid this risk?

Just interested in your views on this.

I recommend them buying just 1 Bitcoin,but I'm not suggesting to invest big in this unless they are also doing other speculative stuff like stocks.
Or for those playing lotto: "it's like a lottery ticket with a better chance of winning"

I wouldn't encourage my family to "speculate" on bitcoin - but I would encourage those in my family with a lot of liquidity and other assets to have a look at it and consider investing a small % of their net worth in bitcoin, as a long term investment, to diversify from all the other asset classes they already own. And I wouldn't feel bad if it went south, after all, they are all adults of sound mind and judgement.

How is it possible that a low 2 digit dollar value is less likely than zero.

Why ? Because it needs to pass through the low two digit and single values to get to zero. If this ever happened it would bounce so high multiple times before it ever got to zero.

So if the value ever goes to zero low 2 digit values are 100% guaranteed and so are both low and high single digit values.

 ::) ::) ::)

If its worth $X and something happens to make it worth $0, who will be paying $2 for it to go to $2 "on the way"? ...

My mother has a 5BTC cold wallet, bought at ~30$.

Many people will trade it all the way down to zero. And I believe pretty much any problem could be fixed given time.

People closing shorts springs to mind.

I bought 100BTC for my dad when the exchange rate was $20.

Those are in a paper wallet and will not be moved for at least 5 years.

I would only recommend Bitcoin to family if they wanted to come in and make a quick buck.  Otherwise, I'd recommend something with a better shot at long term viability and worldwide adoption, like Ripple.  In fact, that's exactly what I do.   ;)

LOL :D

I'm not sure $0 Bitcoin is likely.  Imagine the worst case scenario, where you can no longer buy *anything* with Bitcoin:  
I, for one, would gladly spend $10 to buy up the world's supply of Bitcoin, simply to be able to say that i own something once worth billions of dollars, an intangible, improbable & counterintuitive thing which trolled the financial sector like a boss, the purely digital entity on which so many hopes & dreams drove, throttle floored, into oblivion.

I'd also buy up some (at that point, 100% useless) ASICs -- simply because i love defunct tech -- and mine.  I once restored a 1943 microwave spectrum analyzer.  Was a huge chunk of rack gear, with a waveguide sticking out of the side.  I had 0 use for it, and 0 plans for reselling it.  I just dug it.  

TL;DR:  Bitcoin's too neat to die.

I like how you did not mention the S word.

I'm honestly* not invested, one way or another.  You think i'm spreading http://clipart.toonarific.com/data/media/110/fud004.gif /-elmer -d?

*You have no reason to believe me :)

Fortunately I'm not in the Ewing family so wouldn't shaft my family with that ripple crap.
 :-*

Re ripple, if Bitcoin can make anyone a banker, Ripple can turn anyone into a loan shark.

Fair enough you've changed my mind.
I meant to say 'Crash or to the Moon'.
It would also never be $10 for the world's supply, as I would buy it at $11 for the lulz.   :P

most definitely, already did so.

I encourage them to be aware of it and then make their own decisions.  After enough time learning about Bitcoin's fundamentals and brief (yet resilent) history - it seems like an asset to at least have some of in a portfolio.

I tell people the facts when it is appropriate and would not ruin the conversation. I tell people about my own decisions. They make their own decisions after that.

YES AND ALL FOUR WHO TOOK THE ADVICE HAS MADE MONEY.

Told them repeatedly last summer around $5, noone listened.

Ouch... out of curiosity, have any of them changed their stance after seeing what happened from last summer to now?

I can answer for him: yes they did.

They probably see him as a genius, wake up, he told them to buy at $5, BTC just went to $266.

Been there, seen that. They are probably throwing money at him for him to buy BTC, right now.

My banker brother could not understand it last month.
Many of those in that sector are too closed minded to see the true picture.
A generation of intelligent people lost to banking but unable to think creatively.
Their minds and talents should be creating true value in other industries.

That seems to be the pattern!  There was one guy in my office talking about it back in October 2012 and I was unfortunately dismissive of him as well.

They should just look at all the relevant information and decide for themselves based on a need and want estimation.

I'm sure similar things were said about Bitcoin.  Hmm...more for me....choo choo!   ;D

This was me, too. After the crash from $250+, I actively discouraged them from investing (different from using) until they had read the whitepaper (http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf).

The money was too much to dissuade smart individuals from going into banking.  Thankfully the number of jobs are declining and all the people finally freed from the grip of finance employment can put their talents to better uses.

No, But by giving away Paper wallets worth $20 in 2012, and explaining the concept, it had the same effect as recommending when they went up in value.

My parents have got a 8 bitcoin in a cold wallet. I wouldn't advice anyone to buy BTC if they couldn't secure their bitcoin themselves.

This is a really good point, and currently security for BTC is not trivial - especially for more of a mass audience.  Kudos to your parents for having a cold wallet!!

I have seen how people in my family use their computers, it would not be the best idea.

I already did encourage a friend of mine to buy BTC but he decided to pass and go with more vanilla stocks / mutual funds instead.  It's understandable - there's a lot more to understand with bitcoin than with stock investing, so it's sorta advanced investing.  I suspect he'll regret it later on when the price is skyrocketing again, but oh well, I tried.

I feel obligated to at least inform them on it (if you don't, how will you feel if Bitcoin becomes mainstream). From there, i'll let them determine whether it's a good investment or not

I treat this cycle as a bit of an in-joke. I tell random strangers, and anyone who will listen. If the price goes through the roof again, I look like some kind of mystical genius, if it goes down, nothing lost on my part.

No I won't, they don't understand about Bitcoin and the wild fluctuations, will scare them to death.