|
Title: You are fools Post by: linuxer on June 11, 2013, 11:17:37 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down
Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: BlueNote on June 11, 2013, 11:32:32 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. If there are more eager sellers than buyers, the sellers will lower their ask prices in order to entice buyers to buy. The price goes down. If there are more eager buyers than sellers, the buyers raise their bid prices in order to entice sellers to sell. The price goes up. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Luciddd on June 11, 2013, 11:34:54 PM Uh what? lol
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Peter Lambert on June 11, 2013, 11:46:00 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. Typically what happens is people put up 'sell' orders above the market price. Then somebody comes along and fills them, so the price moves when they execute their 'buy'. The terminology of a 'buy' or 'sell' refer to which one is the market order. Of course there is always an equal amount of limit orders being filled, but the market order is the one moving the market, limit orders cannot move the price directly. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: kodo on June 12, 2013, 12:14:07 AM lol so we are all fools? even though I didnt do any of that stated in the thread
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Eastwind on June 12, 2013, 08:41:02 AM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. If there are more eager sellers than buyers, the sellers will lower their ask prices in order to entice buyers to buy. The price goes down. If there are more eager buyers than sellers, the buyers raise their bid prices in order to entice sellers to sell. The price goes up. I think the key word here is "eager". Title: Re: You are fools Post by: TheEmperor on June 12, 2013, 08:56:56 AM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. Ironic that you have posted this in the Economics section yet clearly have no understanding of the Economics of any market, let alone Bitcoin. Here is why price moves:- New information Uncertainty Psychological Factors Fear Greed Supply and Demand Title: Re: You are fools Post by: axefrog on June 12, 2013, 02:53:22 PM A limit order is an order placed to wait and buy or sell only at a specific price, and it will sit there until a market order comes through that satisfies it.
A market order is an order to buy or sell at whatever price is acceptable right now, as per the available limit orders. The set of unsatisfied limit orders at any given time is the "order book". When an order occurs within an exchange, it has two sides; a market order which initiates one or more transactions, and one or more limit orders that are consumed to satisfy the whole of the market order. Let's say that the current order book shows 25BTC available to buy @ $99.00, then 20BTC @ $99.10, then 130 @ $99.20, then 50 @ $99.30. This means the current buy price is $99.00 because I can buy bitcoins right now at $99.00. Now let's say I want to place a market order to buy 100BTC right now. To satisfy this order, I first buy up the 25 BTC inventory available at the $99.00 price point. Now that there are none left at that price, I need to buy at the next price point, $99.10. So far I've bought 45BTC of my 100BTC order. Now the cheapest remaining BTC in the order book are the 130BTC at the $99.20 price point, so I buy 55BTC of that, thus completing my market order, and leaving 75BTC still in the order book at the $99.20 price point. Given that that is now the cheapest available price for BTC in the order book, we can say that the price just changed from $99.00 to $99.20, hence the price moved up, as you would see at a glance. Similarly, if I place a market order to sell, then I am consuming limit orders on the buy side, starting with those paying the highest rate, then the next highest rate and so on until my sell order is satisfied (i.e. my BTC are bought by the buyers who placed the limit orders to buy). Because I'm consuming limit orders that pay the highest price first, then they will no longer exist when I am done, and the next highest will be the best remaining price that anyone is willing to pay, so it can be said that I am driving the price downwards. You will note of course that both of these (market orders to both buy and sell) can consume the available limit orders in both directions at the same time. That's where the "spread" comes in. It's the area between the highest "buy" price and the lowest "sell" price. If market orders are executed that consume all of the limit orders around a given price point, the spread grows. What happens next is that people who want to be the first to be chosen to be bought from or sold to then go and place new limit orders inside the spread area, thus closing the gap between the highest buy price and the lowest sell price. A healthy market generally has a low spread, as people exist who both want to buy and sell. If the market is falling, the spread will tend to be filled only with limit orders to sell, which pushes the spread area down towards lower price points. When the market is rising, the opposite happens. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: kodo on June 12, 2013, 10:20:13 PM A limit order is an order placed to wait and buy or sell only at a specific price, and it will sit there until a market order comes through that satisfies it. A market order is an order to buy or sell at whatever price is acceptable right now, as per the available limit orders. The set of unsatisfied limit orders at any given time is the "order book". When an order occurs within an exchange, it has two sides; a market order which initiates one or more transactions, and one or more limit orders that are consumed to satisfy the whole of the market order. Let's say that the current order book shows 25BTC available to buy @ $99.00, then 20BTC @ $99.10, then 130 @ $99.20, then 50 @ $99.30. This means the current buy price is $99.00 because I can buy bitcoins right now at $99.00. Now let's say I want to place a market order to buy 100BTC right now. To satisfy this order, I first buy up the 25 BTC inventory available at the $99.00 price point. Now that there are none left at that price, I need to buy at the next price point, $99.10. So far I've bought 45BTC of my 100BTC order. Now the cheapest remaining BTC in the order book are the 130BTC at the $99.20 price point, so I buy 55BTC of that, thus completing my market order, and leaving 75BTC still in the order book at the $99.20 price point. Given that that is now the cheapest available price for BTC in the order book, we can say that the price just changed from $99.00 to $99.20, hence the price moved up, as you would see at a glance. Similarly, if I place a market order to sell, then I am consuming limit orders on the buy side, starting with those paying the highest rate, then the next highest rate and so on until my sell order is satisfied (i.e. my BTC are bought by the buyers who placed the limit orders to buy). Because I'm consuming limit orders that pay the highest price first, then they will no longer exist when I am done, and the next highest will be the best remaining price that anyone is willing to pay, so it can be said that I am driving the price downwards. You will note of course that both of these (market orders to both buy and sell) can consume the available limit orders in both directions at the same time. That's where the "spread" comes in. It's the area between the highest "buy" price and the lowest "sell" price. If market orders are executed that consume all of the limit orders around a given price point, the spread grows. What happens next is that people who want to be the first to be chosen to be bought from or sold to then go and place new limit orders inside the spread area, thus closing the gap between the highest buy price and the lowest sell price. A healthy market generally has a low spread, as people exist who both want to buy and sell. If the market is falling, the spread will tend to be filled only with limit orders to sell, which pushes the spread area down towards lower price points. When the market is rising, the opposite happens. This is great, well done. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: yvv on June 12, 2013, 10:29:45 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When somebody wants to sell thousands of bitcoins, he needs to ask lower than market price, because otherwise he will have hard time to find enough buyers, you stupid ass. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: notme on June 12, 2013, 11:10:14 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. You are a fool. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: No 1 on June 13, 2013, 01:53:27 AM riddle of the day goes to..
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Crypt_Current on June 13, 2013, 03:39:36 AM Am I even replying to this? Damn, it must have been a booooooooooring day ... ::)
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: asdf on June 13, 2013, 08:55:05 AM Trololololo
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: linuxer on June 13, 2013, 09:08:40 AM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When somebody wants to sell thousands of bitcoins, he needs to ask lower than market price, because otherwise he will have hard time to find enough buyers, you stupid ass. You are the stupid actully and if that's the case why price is low, why don't all you fucking idiots place their sell order at 500$ and wait for some days. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: yvv on June 13, 2013, 12:49:42 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When somebody wants to sell thousands of bitcoins, he needs to ask lower than market price, because otherwise he will have hard time to find enough buyers, you stupid ass. You are the stupid actully and if that's the case why price is low, why don't all you fucking idiots place their sell order at 500$ and wait for some days. Because some people need USD now, you stupid ape. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: TheEmperor on June 13, 2013, 01:25:37 PM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When somebody wants to sell thousands of bitcoins, he needs to ask lower than market price, because otherwise he will have hard time to find enough buyers, you stupid ass. You are the stupid actully and if that's the case why price is low, why don't all you fucking idiots place their sell order at 500$ and wait for some days. You are the stupid one actually and if that's the case why price is low, why don't all you fucking idiots place your sell orders at 500$ and wait for some days. FTFY Title: Re: You are fools Post by: bitzox on June 13, 2013, 07:49:52 PM Man you totally earn that official troll title
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: veteranBtc on June 13, 2013, 08:51:28 PM Maybe someone sells and someone else buy, no?
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: savantguy on June 14, 2013, 09:25:31 PM getting some popcorn...
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Quicker_777 on June 15, 2013, 02:59:27 AM For every seller thinking they have to get off the boat, there is another passenger who is saying "let me on!"
:D Title: Re: You are fools Post by: zebedee on June 15, 2013, 09:32:04 AM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Relative desperation.Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. Next. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: ISAWHIM on June 15, 2013, 02:26:33 PM When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.
If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.) That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.) Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways. The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.) Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us... Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin... You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES. You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways. They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"... Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Quicker_777 on June 15, 2013, 02:41:09 PM When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price. If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.) That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.) Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways. The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.) Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us... Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin... You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES. You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways. They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"... Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value. Wow - very well thought out - thank you for the analysis - probably spot-on! Title: Re: You are fools Post by: retro72 on June 16, 2013, 06:37:54 PM When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price. If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.) That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.) Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways. The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.) Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us... Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin... You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES. You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways. They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"... Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value. Very smart analysis Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on June 16, 2013, 11:03:51 PM When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price. If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.) That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.) Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways. The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.) Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us... Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin... You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES. You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways. They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"... Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value. I for one don't agree with your analysis. Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously :) ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly. My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs. I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable. But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits. Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything. Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC. My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: firefop on June 16, 2013, 11:19:12 PM I for one don't agree with your analysis. Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously :) ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly. My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs. I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable. But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits. Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything. Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC. My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned. He got a couple of things right by accident. Change to asic will tank the price - as difficulty is still moving up steeply, we're making coins faster than we're supposed to (adjustments every 10 - 12 days instead of ever 14). Some (probably the majority) of those miners will sell coins to get 'instant roi' on their new gear. That's round 1... once that's over some portion (probably the minority) will immediately buy more hardware and try to do it again. This cycle will repeat until the price goes down faster and faster... But, at some point the dropping price will create enough of an roi gap that they won't want to sell immediately. This is already happening as evidenced by some of the (insane?) offerings to sell avalon machines at 10000% markups. Those guys want out and will at some point break the re-investment cycle. The smart money is slowly buying as the price gets lower. The smart miner has already ordered all his asics and won't be cashing out immediately once he gets them... instead he'll be purchasing more mining hardware slowly over time (in a percentage equal to the difficulty increase percentage) to protect his income. This is the real stress test of the network. If bitcoin survives the jump to asic then it's unkillable and will be here forever. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on June 16, 2013, 11:33:39 PM I for one don't agree with your analysis. Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously :) ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly. My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs. I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable. But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits. Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything. Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC. My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned. He got a couple of things right by accident. Change to asic will tank the price - as difficulty is still moving up steeply, we're making coins faster than we're supposed to (adjustments every 10 - 12 days instead of ever 14). Some (probably the majority) of those miners will sell coins to get 'instant roi' on their new gear. That's round 1... once that's over some portion (probably the minority) will immediately buy more hardware and try to do it again. This cycle will repeat until the price goes down faster and faster... But, at some point the dropping price will create enough of an roi gap that they won't want to sell immediately. This is already happening as evidenced by some of the (insane?) offerings to sell avalon machines at 10000% markups. Those guys want out and will at some point break the re-investment cycle. The smart money is slowly buying as the price gets lower. The smart miner has already ordered all his asics and won't be cashing out immediately once he gets them... instead he'll be purchasing more mining hardware slowly over time (in a percentage equal to the difficulty increase percentage) to protect his income. This is the real stress test of the network. If bitcoin survives the jump to asic then it's unkillable and will be here forever. Yes, the increase in hash rate is indeed speeding up BTC supply atm, which has a negative effect on the price. However, if demand grew as much as it did before, that wouldn't matter. We are still churning out less bitcoins that before the block reward halving, and we managed to keep prices stable for a long time at 50 BTCs /block. I am also on the buying slowly as price gets lower plan :) (still have the majority of my initial position though, don't want to risk being wrong on this speculation and missing the train). My guess is bitcoin will deal/ is dealing with ASICs just fine. Negative legislation, limited scalability and network attacks are bigger potential issues imho, which won't necessarily kill bitcoin, but could have an impact on just by how many people it will be used, and thus also price. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: junglist.massive on June 17, 2013, 10:05:50 AM if there's loud about btc in media price going up
Title: Re: You are fools Post by: moiraine on June 17, 2013, 05:24:00 PM When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price. completely agree!If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.) That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.) Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways. The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.) Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us... Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin... You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES. You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways. They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"... Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: hayek on June 17, 2013, 05:39:24 PM I think is on page one of an economic textbook, somewhere.
http://stephansmithfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Supply-and-Demand-Graph.png Yes, someone bought those bitcoins. But if more people are selling than people are buying the price goes down. The sellers have to compete to get the highest price. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: servicehidden on July 04, 2013, 09:54:30 PM 2linuxer,
You are captain! Write more! Title: Re: You are fools Post by: polarhei on July 08, 2013, 04:52:58 AM When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too.. When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them.. Now tell me why price goes up down. Ironic that you have posted this in the Economics section yet clearly have no understanding of the Economics of any market, let alone Bitcoin. Here is why price moves:- New information Uncertainty Psychological Factors Fear Greed Supply and Demand Many people are not so stupid, just guess wrongly. Title: Re: You are fools Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on July 08, 2013, 06:24:42 AM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioVk9MeZNGg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeEqxWTz8Ls ^ What I thought of when I read the title of this thread. BTW, I enjoyed viewing for the very first time somebody's logical avatar. Fascinating! Title: Re: You are fools Post by: bitzox on July 09, 2013, 04:19:44 PM Negative legislation, limited scalability and network attacks are bigger potential issues imho, which won't necessarily kill bitcoin, but could have an impact on just by how many people it will be used, and thus also price. This all day, for all the speculation about the cause of short term price movements they are just noise. Weather they are due to early adopters cashing out, the shift to ASICs, or increased media coverage is largely irrelevant. I feel that even over the medium term, and definitely over the long term, the above concerns will have far more impact on price and adoption than any of these more short term factors. |