Bitcoin Forum

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

Hehe, there's nothing wrong to make our own prediction and assumption. Anything is possible in future, especially in this crazy world...

Nothing insane about it, I saw this one thousand of times in the altboard.


2,3 are the same if 2 happens there is no doubt 3 will happen also.
4. Of course if something is not going up it has two choices, and one is down.
5. You're repeating number 4 here.
6. I really doubt it. Those who bought at 1-100 range will still make millions even at 1000, doubt they will panic and sell at 10k. Most of them didn't while bitcoin lost 75% of it's value why should they panic now.
7. Now this is one wild prediction.
8. No comment....

As for your "insane" call, it can be called "ethereum shill wet dreams". Far more accurate title.


 

this board is not called "guessing board" for a reason!

that is where you are wrong. the "assumption and expectation" is what drives the market most of the times. when enough people expect price to fall they sell, and when enough people expect the price to rise they buy.
their buy and sells leads to rise and falls.

yeah. very logical.
millions of investors will suddenly decide "lets stop investing in bitcoin" and then a couple of hundreds of thousands of merchants will say "yeah lets stop accepting bitcoin" and everyone just dumps it for no reason at all.

why?
what does ETH do better than bitcoin?
the fees are high.
the scaling issue of ETH is horrible
it can not handle large number of transactions which has been proven multiple times when the network failed
it has lots of bugs and exploits like DAO waiting to happen again
it is not even a currency to want to compete with bitcoin

not to mention the huge supply and no cap!

as i said this is not a "guessing board" and you are not predicting anything, you are clearly bag holding ethereum and think we can't see that ;)

If you see the pattern, when bitcoin goes down, ETH goes down with it
Although I like eth as a technical solution, I don't think the team has any grasp of the economic side, or they even seem to care.
I start to suspect all the big names they had in the sponsor list for devcon and in their group are just there to learn about cryptos and grab their experience to propose alternatives in the future. I've sold my eths for now, unless I see some decent movement there (and I suspect I wont) I'll stay on btc.

This is a good prediction, if that possibly happens, for sure a lot of us will make another panic selling. Most people holding bitcoin right now and if that is possible that bitcoin will fall down from the price when the year 2013 then maybe there are still investors will buy bitcoin because they will think that bitcoin will still increase and at the same time they will also invest in Ethereum so whatever happens they still have another wallet that can possibly increase in the future and if both Ethereum and bitcoin increase up to year 2019 and you are still holding, for sure you can gain huge profit.

Bravo for you for thinking outside the box on this one but I dont really see it happening. Maybe it is my rose colored glasses but it would be hard to believe everybody who got into cryptos earlier on is cashed out fully because

they stand to gain way too much if bitcoin explodes harder. I will take precautions going into next year myself but that isnt because I think bitcoin will cease to exist in less than 5 years.

You forget about the node which is impossible to synch.

The nice thing with speculation threads is no one can tell you you are right or wrong, I suspect you will be wrong but if in a years time you are right I will come back here and congratulate you myself, one thing I can see happening is ethereum surpassing bitcoin as no 1 market cap.

why do you think people just waiting for the price reached level Bitcoin $ 10,000 and sell them?
Why do you think Bitcoin dropped and Eth throne?
If can outperform Bitcoin eth did that long ago. Bitcoin may be will go down but synonymous altcoin also go down

This makes no sense.

Ok this is definitely on the cards I think. Indeed.

The price surely cannot stay the same if MANY think USD100,000 is on the cards and convert their assets into Bitcoin.

Or are you suggesting that there are going to be handful of dumbasses, the rest of the market completely cashes out (including all Bitcoin miners) and there is no such thing as FOMO from next year onwards.

Dreamland....

Why $ 10,000? Why not sell when bitcoin will be worth $ 20,000? I think it all depends on the affluence of users. If you have the opportunity to meet their needs Fiat you will store your bitcoins until the price will not grow to the maximum. If you do not have enough money to live on then you are going to sell bitcoins at any price.

I really didn't find this reasonable. There is no logic behind your argument. There is no reason for bitcoin to start decreasing like crazy as in the old days, in 2013. The trend of bitcoin already changed hard.

But ethereum can still surpass bitcoin within 5 years, I believe.

So your entire "insane prediction" is based on another Mt.Gox-type event happening. The type of event that literally scared everyone out of holding bitcoin, that's the only way Bitcoin isn't going to continue skyrocketing.

You are probably right, i always knew that bitcoin was never going to be over ten thousand dollars because it is pretty impossible, i read a lot of post of optimist people saying that bitcoin was going to be more than 20-30-50 thousand dollars by the end of this and the next year, and it is insane, if you think about, it is impossible because that is a very huge amount of money.
But bitcoin will always be the #1 on the crypto list, there is no way that it could fall from there.

Indeed: the gradual decline of Bitcoin prices after the ATH of november 2013 was caused by the combination of the Mt.Gox hack and Bitcoin still being in its early and fragile years. We've now got a plethora of exchanges around. Although the OP doesn't give a reason why BTC could be overtaken by alts in the (near) future, it is certainly a possible scenario; it was close to happening in last June when BTC was about to crumble under the onslaught of the alts.

I agree with almost everything that you wrote on this post, you are perfect man, you are probably the most honest person that i have ever seen on this forum.. A lot of people are spreading fake news about bitcoin, X bussiness, Amazon accepting bitcoins, X country accepting bitcoin.. and the list is so long, they all want to rise bitcoin at all costs, and this is why bitcoin has been very bullish lately.
But yes, of course that we all want to see it going bullish, but that is not the way, and 10$k, it is a fair rate for me.

You're just the same. We can not be quite sure of Bitcoin's future price movement forecast. All this is merely a speculation that could not have happened. So you should be very concerned that Bitcoin is a thing that can not be predicted exactly. most people can only see if the price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease. Everyone in the world today knows only that Bitcoin is a very profitable currency and investment.

Looking to move my bitcoin to gold at $10000 just to be safe, but I really think $20000 still reasonable and $25000 should be achievable by end of 2018, it is capital flight that can drive the market to this insane price

Bump for review.

That already was clear during the time of your post, and going to $15,000 was also expected. $20,000 was a surprise in my opinion.


In what time frame?


I agree with this sentiment, but it would not take several years. I believe the halving on 2020 will cause another climb to a new all time high.



Buy now while the price is under $10,000.


I believe most of them have already done it except for a few Bitcoin figures like Mircea Popescu, who will never sell. I could be mistaken.


No, that will not happen. Haha.

But let's revisit this topic on December 31, 2018.

Brag when it's time to brag...

This recent article at https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/ just validated my point #6 that...

Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

everyone is free to live and dream as high as possible. But we do not know in the future Bitcoin will be how it is. For example at this time Bitcoin prices tend to decrease continuously and accompanied by altcoin also come down the price

Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.

At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.

So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc.   ;D

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

The only way that regulation can lead to increased adoption is to put limits in the exchanges. In that way, people would not panic sell, and would feel more safe when bitcoin goes down.

I saw a thread in the forum where someone also predicted BTC to $500K, that's the most insane prediction you could ever hear but I may not live that far whenever that happen. People may not afford BTC anymore and will shift to ETH and the alts.



Limiting will also make those people back away from investing because most the reason why they get into crypto is because of profit too.

My predictions were...
1. There will be regulation in place.
2. Regulation will increase adoption.
So please don't cherry pick my comments and insult me by saying "Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption."
You can see one side of the coin, but fail to see the other accompanying side.

And by the way, argue all you like, but I also said in my past comments that Bitcoin is a shitcoin. Yes, you may call me names and insult me for calling Bitcoin a shitcoin just as others insulted me for saying there will be regulation.

Someone in an article said Bitcoin will be killed by its hardforks. I said it similarly last year in other site. Too bad I cannot brag about this here because I didn't make my comments in this forum. But I know I was proven right about this too.

And to your comment that BTC will be purchased by governments, I don't think so.

I think this predictions has play out to some extent and I have tried to remain positive about the upwards movement of price of bitcoin but I think the reality is quite different.  The bearish market and conditions has dominated the market since the beginning of the year and I think bitcoin may fall from were it started from in July last year.

Not if the limit is only downwards.

Yes it looks like some points of his did play out.

However if Bitcoin crashes badly I don't think ETH will hold its value either or replace the #1 spot for market cap.

The fact of $100,000 or $1,000,000 per BTC was very far fetched at least in the next decade.

You really can't predict the top, so just sell a little every few weeks or months until you liquidate your position.

Because you will almost always sell too early or sell too late. Hence do it in parts.

These two things are obvious. Regulation is only a matter of time. Everone knows this. Also, if adoption increases, price has to increase too.


I wasn't insulting you, sorry you took it that way. I was just stating that it is glaringly obvious regulation will increase adoption.


Bitcoin by definition cannot be a shitcoin. Shitcoins are Bitcoin clones that serve no purpose. Bitcoin cannot be a clone of its self, as Bitcoin is the Benchmark for all other coins. Therefore it cannot be a shitcoin. I don't know why others have insulted you in regards to regulation, regulation is a good thing.


How could you be proven right that Bitcoin will be killed by hardforks? Bitcoin is still alive. For you to be proven right Bitcoin would have had to be killed by the hard forks first.


How come you don't think so? More people are adopting the idea that Bitcoin is a store of value/alternative to gold. If this becomes the case, and more of the wealthy store their money in Bitcoin, why wouldn't governments start buying it to increase/diversify their reserves?

Yes, you are right. Everyone of us have the right to speculate and it can't harm anybody here  :). Even the so-called expert analyst can't even predict what would be the actual price of crypto in the future, that's what we put in our mind.

But you also believe that Ethereum will "surpass" Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency in market capitalization. That is where your "prediction" will go wrong. Fundamentally Bitcoin is the better network than Ethereum in design and in development.

In my life time I might see Ethereum be the "no.1", but only for a while. Read this, https://hackernoon.com/the-ethereum-blockchain-size-has-exceeded-1tb-and-yes-its-an-issue-2b650b5f4f62?source=user_profile---------10-------------------&gi=7a2cd5e849ac

Ethereum will not last "within your and my lifetime".

the meaning of "surpass" and being "no. 1" has changed a lot ever since ethereum was created. it was bent to satisfy the needs of their advertising team.
look at the ranking system for example it is purely based on market capitalization. and surprise surprise ETH has a huge supply to increase that number (mc=supply*price) and keep it that way.

ranking should be based on: usability, adoption, security, innovation, technology, ... instead and in such ranking system ETH falls down out of at least top 10 coins!

I know but we are posting in the "speculation" subforum. Usability, adoption, security, and everything else important under the hood are thrown away. Only market capitalization matters. Hahaha.

the worst part is even if profit is the only thing that they care about still market cap doesn't matter!
for example for the past couple of days the market was red, or was it? look where the money is going. the pumpers don't just stop because price of some big altcoin was dropping. they cashed out a long time ago and now are pumping other coins. in fact the smaller the market cap the easier to pump
and that happens every day
https://i.imgur.com/llCSJrK.jpg

I think many people will invest in bitcoin expecting price to reach 100000 dollars and will lose money guess is going to be true.. But I think it will eventually reach 100k, problem is that greedy people will start believing it will go further and they will find themselves losing money.

It might not matter among the small altcoins, but holding the title of "the no.1 cryptocurrency in the world" in market capitalization does matter in my opinion, especially to those people who are only here to invest, trade and speculate.

Plus that picture of scamcoins is also a good example of how people throw everything out except the coins' value. Hahaha.

in my theory there are 3 different groups of people investing
1. the solid investors who analyzed everything and then brought their money in. these people invest in bitcoin not because it is #1 but because because they see the reality of it. for example if you go to Microsoft website, or Dell or previously Steam, .... or go to offline shops for instance in malls in Japan,... you can see bitcoin is accepted as a real currency as payment. but not other shitcoins even if their rank is #2 or whatever or even if their advertisers tell you how awesome they are!
2. the more risk taking investors. these will want profit so they go to altcoins. for them the ranking does not matter. profit is all that matters. this profit can be brought to them by #2 coin or #1700 coin.
3. the newbies. these form the bulk of the market and they are usually running around and putting their money in different places and let it sleep there for a long time. they basically make a bet and sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. for them, the ranking is everything. if a coin is #1, 2,... or top10 they will  get more excited  than a coin with rank #269 even if it can give them 10 times the profit.

I believe what made people become Bitcoin "investors" should not be as important. What should be of the greatest importance is to learn how Bitcoin works, the way it is designed, and why it makes more sense than the "fastest, most scalable altcoin in the world".

The OP is an example of a person who does not understand Bitcoin yet. If he did he would never dare say "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" as the no.1 coin by end of 2018.

I assume you see ETH is worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology.

Pray tell which are the top 10 cryptos in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Honestly, are you really really really really sure that ETH fare worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Really? Sure?

Many people have a very common thought habit of assuming that a first-mover will forever be the #1, regardless of every other influencing factors.

Ethereum usage and adoption already exceeded usage and adoption of Bitcoin.
If we have a time machine to travel back to the past 5 years and someone from 5 years ago said Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in adoption and usage, you could probably be in disbelief too.

People like to say if it is not Bitcoin, then it is altcoin, much the same way as saying if this computer is not from IBM, then it is an altcomputer.
Yes, I agree that is a very silly statement.
Exactly the same way I feel whenever someone describe non-Bitcoin cryptos as altcoins.

Yeah, you may continue with your thought process that Bitcoin will forever be #1 no matter what the f*** happens to the world.
Whatever makes you feel comfy.

Your theory is very incomplete.

Bitcoin was made accepted not because it was the first, nor because it has futuristic tech.

indeed the two coins are always booming price so when the price goes down you slightly do not believe because dipikiran you both prices will always rise when every second the price can change at any time can go up and down.

for the past 3 years that ethereum existed the only usage that it had was smart contracts (something that bitcoin and at least 50 other altcoins also do and some of them do it a lot better). in these 3 years there has been thousands of smart contracts created each more useless than the last. people only buy ETH for speculation or to buy ICOs and gamble.
people also buy bitcoin for speculation but they also buy it because it is a decentralized money and also a secure store of value.
that is usability and adoption for you.

as for security, with the speed that ETH blockchain is growing the nodes will centralize to only a handful of nodes that can handle 1, 2, 10 TB  and growing fast. and that opens ups easy attack surfaces.
there has been a lot of hacks of the main client that the developing team releases and millions have been lost multiple times. latest of them have been the multisignature feature being buggy and $110 million was lost!
as for smart contracts (the only usage of ETH) it is easily exploitable. DAO is the biggest example which was not fixed but instead "rolled back" which also proved that ETH is not Immutable. the worst part is issues similar to DAO happened multiple times after that but there was no "roll back" for them and they were swept under the rug because the foundation never invested in those but they have invested in DAO! immutability may not mean anything to you but it is one of the fundamentals of blockchain technology and without it this technology means nothing.
that's security for you.

as for innovation and technology, all of the ideas that Vitalik used have been either proposed or discussed by bitcoin developers and put down because of the problems they imposed. there is nothing new about ethereum, there is just an interesting idea to allow such a platform for smart contracts, i admit that but with side chains on bitcoin this idea will exist for bitcoin in a much better, efficient and cheaper way!


not it had never have anything to do with being "first mover". and bitcoin is not at all the first mover. there have been other projects (altcoins if you will) before bitcoin was even created. they do not exist today but bitcoin does.

I have the opinion that cryptocurrency tech like Bitcoin and Blockchain were first sold as something idealistic, i.e. decentralized, immutable, financial freedom/independence as in being your own banker, etc, in order to entice adoption, but as adoption increases, such tech will slowly morph into something totally opposite of what it was originally sold for, i.e. it will not be decentralized, it will not give you freedom/independence, etc.

So ultimately what will become the major global-scale mainstream cryptocurrency will depend entirely on who is behind the foundation.
Is it people like me and you?
Or is it people like TPTB?

Yeah, I agree Vitalik hardforked ETH was not to save the DAO victims, but because their own investment was at stake.
But then this world is very ugly.
Sometimes we cannot make decision based on what is most perfect, or what is best, but on whose power is behind such tech.

Bitcoin's persistent existence since 2009 was never a coincidence nor an accident.
It was not thanks to people like Vitalik, or Andreas, or Roger Ver, or Gavin, or etc Mr. Mister that promoted it regularly, that is not the human nature.
Human nature is such that if a 3rd-party tech is great, most likely you will copy its code, modify it, and promote it as your own brand, never the brand of a 3rd-party, and that's exactly what many groups and companies are doing today, i.e. developing their own blockchain.
However, if there is a group of techies, no matter how independent they appear to be, promoting a 3rd-party tech, something is amiss.
Have you ever asked yourself why "Satoshi" chose to be anonymous while people like Vitalik and Charlie Lee are walking free?
There is another reason why Bitcoin was sold as some tech developed by some anonymous guy.
No, nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of getting caught and prosecuted by the government, that's the garbage thought process sold to you.
If Bitcoin was started by average people like you and me, it would have died within 1 year after starting.

If you still sincerely believe that Bitcoin was created by a single Japanese guy to save the world and destroy governments and bankers, then you are still dreaming in the matrix.
Most likely what they sold to you is the exact opposite of what is real.
But of course this will slowly evolve over time.
What was once deregulated will be regulated.
What was once private will be non-private.
What was once decentralized will be centralized.
Before you know it, the world will turn out to be just the same.

People do not buy something just because this something is decentralized or a store of value.
Decentralized and store of value are just excuses to justify buying it, so you don't go around telling your friends you buy Bitcoin because of the money as if you are a greedy materialistic bastard, but instead you can strike up a smart conversation that it is because of decentralization and a store of value.
Nothing but lies that people like you keeping telling themselves everyday.

But it is not only about being the "first mover" or "network effects" anymore, which are still very hard for the altcoins to surpass. It is also about long term development and design decisions that some Ethereum developers may have gotten wrong.


What usage? Ethereum's use case as a platform for the issuance of ICO shitcoins?


You are off the topic. But if Ethereum was "technically good" then no one would challenge your statement that "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" in market capitalization. But it's not.


Bitcoin will become a global reserve asset in 10 years. Ethereum will become a centralized network with nodes run in data centers by that time.

Good design decisions will pay off.

Looking like the insane prediction might have legs...

I don’t believe in any predictions because as much time I spent here in this forum, I found all the predictions became false and the facts were against them. I only rely on the ground reality and the ground reality shows us more dip in the coming days. You didn’t mention the time frame for $10000, because time is the most important factor in bitcoin investment.

But I don’t want growth at the end of my life. I want recovery soon if not so then I will turn towards Altcoin. In my opinion these are the whales that are responsible for such dip in the price. Now I am optimistic about the raise in the price in the next month. The price is stuck between $6k and $7k and you are talking about $ 1 mil in the future.