Bitcoin Forum

Any thoughts, ideas or speculations?

Why not $5,000?  ;D

Perhaps adoption by paypal / western union, ebay, some really big player. If you are talking about short-term. But I think short-term $500 is fantasy talk.

I don't see anything that will suddenly boost the price short-term bar another crazy bubble. And that's not going to happen whilst people still remember the last one.

Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey from now on - with VC-backed companies really developing the bitcoin infrastructure, hardware wallets, quicker transaction times etc. Making bitcoins easier for the public to use and safer.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/19/30-days-in-bitcoin-angel-group-bitangels-doubles-network-to-120-puts-first-100k-into-seasteading-venture-blueseed/?ncid=tcdaily

Well, lets look at just the next 3-6 months.

Not for the next 3 years .  if it  does  shoot up to that level, its gona  be  an artificial hike with some asshole fixing to crash it  and  sweep all you money up. 

Mass adoption can also drive a price hike.

There will be no mass adoption in the next 3-6 months. That's a fantasy. Just won't happen.

Lots of lots of services have to be rolled out by professionals before bitcoin can start going mainstream. Hence the link to all the start-ups being funded by VC. That's where the next wave of adoption will come from, better products and services that the mainstream will want to use. I do believe it will happen, but think 2-3 years, nothing much happens in 6 months except bubbles and bursts.

Yeh but that also  creates a  bubble.

Take into  factor :
 lets say number  of users to 1 million
 new users just  trying it out getting used to the  currency
 out of that 1 million users 50% will drop out within a span of 2-5 weeks  ckz of the  spike in the currency prices. i predict a spike of 60%
 when the 50 % users start to drop like flies the market  again crashes  ck they  sell just to get out.

A adoption of  some thing  that holds value should never  spike or have massive adoption. just like the real estate market, and the IT bubble that crashed the world economy.

ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now.
Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase.

The hash rate it self  will not  be the only  factor  driving  the  bitcoin prices , like empoweoqwj said  until and unless services and goods  dont  come up for bitcoin, people  will have no place to spend  those  bitcoin. If they can't spend the coins the price wont  increase  because  the  demand  for  bitcoin  wont  be that much.  
When demand is low the  miners or hordes holding the bitcoin panic and  start selling  low and  prices  go down .

Yes, that's why i said both things. "ASIC miner and worldwide adoptation"

ASIC Miner is not  a service, Its a bitcoin generation/(transaction verification) entity all miners are.

Adoption will only come if there is a utility in the bitcoin.
Utility will only come in, if  there is a valid and  strong  reason  for people  to start using  the coin.
What is the use of bitcoin?  to be used as a transaction medium for goods and  services.

so the underlining factor is bitcoin needs a market  to function in and for  companies to start and  offer  services  and  products  will take  time and infra structure.





 

Adoption will also come when people will see profit in it and about asic, i think you misunderstood my point.

I want to say

More asic machines => difficult level will go super high => Bitcoins will be hard to mine with normal cards => New People will buy from others instead of mining coins themselves => Bitcoins per user ratio will go low* => More demand/less supply => Price go high.

Ps: It's a long process I'm not talking about instant bubble.

You are  slightly wrong on your premises, the problem here is that you are  trying to correlate adoption of bitcoin with profit. which is  wrong.

Firstly, profit is only a business driven goal.  if a  business sees profit in bitcoin then that business is  surely meant to fail. but a business seeing bitcoin as having  utility makes more sense. this being a  cardinal utility.

The reason why i dont  see ASIC's entering the market as a problem in price fluctuation. are  because of the factors that right now  determine the price is not the hash rate  but the overall use  of  bitcoin and its  utility.

Before hash rates can make any dent  in the price system the following  conditions  have to be fulfilled:-
1. Services being offered should be reasonable.
2. use and adoption to the masses should  be easy.
3. spending should match earnings in relation to bitcoin.
4. Bitcoin should be readily accessible to people.
5. Strong  reason to use bitcoin over conventional monetary systems.

All these factors are  subjected again by governmental, individual, corporate control and regulation.  Making  it  that much  harder to fulfill the  conditions   mentioned  above.


If you look at the Hash rate  chart of the past one  year the  hashrate does not correlate with the price changes in the past 6 months.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate   
https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price
 

1. Easy withdrawal to local banks or cheque (which is quite less these days)

2. Less popularity of other payment processor and their resident currency system like perfect money etc. Less usage of these will increase number of people coming to the bitcoin.

I think it could be close in three months.  But for the sake of the nitpick I'll use 5 Months. 

Remember when it shot from $8 to $10 then $15 then back to $8. Everyone screamed bubble and I'm sure for a moment it was. A few months later $15 was where it would hold.  Same trend happend before it reached $30-$70. Then it hit over $100. Then ee had the bubble to $250. I speculate within 5 months it will be at $250ish as a natural flow.  Perhaps close to $400 in 11 months

I doubt it would be close to 400$. I guess it requires a lot of time and for 500 bucks though, not by small margin that amount is easy to get.

related question: What could be the trigger to push BTC below US $5?

I do not think that there is anything in the current path that could do that.

picture this: Bitcoin is used to fund some terrorists who do another Boston Bombing

And, this is something that money does not already fund? If they want to do something radical, I doubt if Bitcoin's measly 1.5B value will help them much and if it's value does go higher, then there will be an economy that may be able to support it.

Once again, most of this is speculative.

Really, is it issue of Bitcoin ?

Cheers

Normal money is traceable. The anonymity of Bitcoin makes it attractive to terrorists, unfortunately.

Bitcoin is way less anonymous than cash. You should read up a bit on this.

Bitcoin is pseudoanonymous, which means that if you wanna do something really dangerous, better to use cash.

I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked.

Well, unless something like zerocoin comes in, technically, the mixing service is a brick and mortar store that can be taken down quite easily.

a good one, like BlockChain.info, deletes it logs after a few hours. so taking it down won't help.

Edit: Blockchain.ino can be taken down.

well, i still do not see it crashing down to US $5  :P.. May sustain around 50 or 80+ for sure.

Mixing service just makes it a bit ( may be very as of now  ) hard to trace the coins, but frankly speaking with bitcoin protocol I do not find it impossible to trace. The thing is that at the moment there is no real motivation for some one to write a tool to trace mixed coins transaction. If some one ( Government or any other thing ) wants it is possible to do that.

Bitcoin is not anonymous, at least as long as I see it :)

As far as normal money concerns, normal money is not easily traceable, the real advantage bitcoin gives is it allows you to store a good amount of wealth without need of much physical space. It is just like its much easy to hide it in black and dark than cash. But as far as trace ability  concerns, well,  bitcoin is much more convenient to trace than cash.

Cheers

Agreed, Bitcoin is better for in-game micropayments, small and medium businesses, export/ import and many other applications.

The problem with indian govt and RBI approaching bitcoin is like rich people using it as a way to avoid tax. Well they can do that directly by bribing, i don't see this happening for terrorism. In fact why would anyone use bitcoin when they can use cash in small chunks like say below 1 lakh per account and then rotating it for that use. it is not hard for them to do such as many brokers and real estate agents use such strategies for years.

Cash is about normal money. Cash is anonymous and untraceable too.

When is your SMS service to be launched to the public BTW? It is very cool.

Why thanks Benson.

I created it as a private service for my own trading.
not sure about making it public as of now.

for others, the service basically sends an sms when BTCUSD moves in steps of $5. well reputed peeps can PM me to be included.

Less coins per block , Paypal , visa / any country announce BTC as their national currency might take take to $500