Title: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 20, 2013, 04:01:59 PM Any thoughts, ideas or speculations?
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: empoweoqwj on June 20, 2013, 04:06:33 PM Why not $5,000? ;D
Perhaps adoption by paypal / western union, ebay, some really big player. If you are talking about short-term. But I think short-term $500 is fantasy talk. I don't see anything that will suddenly boost the price short-term bar another crazy bubble. And that's not going to happen whilst people still remember the last one. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey from now on - with VC-backed companies really developing the bitcoin infrastructure, hardware wallets, quicker transaction times etc. Making bitcoins easier for the public to use and safer. http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/19/30-days-in-bitcoin-angel-group-bitangels-doubles-network-to-120-puts-first-100k-into-seasteading-venture-blueseed/?ncid=tcdaily Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 20, 2013, 04:09:22 PM Why not $5,000? ;D Perhaps adoption by paypal / western union, ebay, some really big player. If you are talking about short-term. But I think short-term $500 is fantasy talk. I don't see anything that will suddenly boost the price short-term bar another crazy bubble. And that's not going to happen whilst people still remember the last one. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey from now on - with VC-backed companies really developing the bitcoin infrastructure, hardware wallets, quicker transaction times etc. Making bitcoins easier for the public to use and safer. http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/19/30-days-in-bitcoin-angel-group-bitangels-doubles-network-to-120-puts-first-100k-into-seasteading-venture-blueseed/?ncid=tcdaily Well, lets look at just the next 3-6 months. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: subvolatil on June 20, 2013, 04:13:05 PM Not for the next 3 years . if it does shoot up to that level, its gona be an artificial hike with some asshole fixing to crash it and sweep all you money up.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 20, 2013, 04:13:57 PM Not for the next 3 years . if it does shoot up to that level, its gona be an artificial hike with some asshole fixing to crash it and sweep all you money up. Mass adoption can also drive a price hike. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: empoweoqwj on June 20, 2013, 04:19:57 PM Not for the next 3 years . if it does shoot up to that level, its gona be an artificial hike with some asshole fixing to crash it and sweep all you money up. Mass adoption can also drive a price hike. There will be no mass adoption in the next 3-6 months. That's a fantasy. Just won't happen. Lots of lots of services have to be rolled out by professionals before bitcoin can start going mainstream. Hence the link to all the start-ups being funded by VC. That's where the next wave of adoption will come from, better products and services that the mainstream will want to use. I do believe it will happen, but think 2-3 years, nothing much happens in 6 months except bubbles and bursts. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: subvolatil on June 20, 2013, 04:22:56 PM Not for the next 3 years . if it does shoot up to that level, its gona be an artificial hike with some asshole fixing to crash it and sweep all you money up. Mass adoption can also drive a price hike. Yeh but that also creates a bubble. Take into factor : lets say number of users to 1 million new users just trying it out getting used to the currency out of that 1 million users 50% will drop out within a span of 2-5 weeks ckz of the spike in the currency prices. i predict a spike of 60% when the 50 % users start to drop like flies the market again crashes ck they sell just to get out. A adoption of some thing that holds value should never spike or have massive adoption. just like the real estate market, and the IT bubble that crashed the world economy. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: escrow.ms on June 20, 2013, 04:23:48 PM ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now.
Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: subvolatil on June 20, 2013, 04:28:14 PM ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now. Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase. The hash rate it self will not be the only factor driving the bitcoin prices , like empoweoqwj said until and unless services and goods dont come up for bitcoin, people will have no place to spend those bitcoin. If they can't spend the coins the price wont increase because the demand for bitcoin wont be that much. When demand is low the miners or hordes holding the bitcoin panic and start selling low and prices go down . Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: escrow.ms on June 20, 2013, 04:31:10 PM ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now. Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase. The hash rate it self will not be the only factor driving the bitcoin prices , like empoweoqwj said until and unless services and goods dont come up for bitcoin people will have no place to spend those bitcoin, if they can spend the coins the price wont increase because the demand for bitcoin wont be that much. When demand is low the miners or hordes holding the bitcoin panic and start selling low and prices go down . Yes, that's why i said both things. "ASIC miner and worldwide adoptation" Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: subvolatil on June 20, 2013, 04:43:36 PM ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now. Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase. The hash rate it self will not be the only factor driving the bitcoin prices , like empoweoqwj said until and unless services and goods dont come up for bitcoin people will have no place to spend those bitcoin, if they can spend the coins the price wont increase because the demand for bitcoin wont be that much. When demand is low the miners or hordes holding the bitcoin panic and start selling low and prices go down . Yes, that's why i said both things. "ASIC miner and worldwide adoptation" ASIC Miner is not a service, Its a bitcoin generation/(transaction verification) entity all miners are. Adoption will only come if there is a utility in the bitcoin. Utility will only come in, if there is a valid and strong reason for people to start using the coin. What is the use of bitcoin? to be used as a transaction medium for goods and services. so the underlining factor is bitcoin needs a market to function in and for companies to start and offer services and products will take time and infra structure. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: escrow.ms on June 20, 2013, 07:06:07 PM ASIC miners and worldwide adoption obviously. Daily thousands of new users are acquiring bitcoins now. Soon bitcoin will be hard to mine from normal graphic cards and demand will increase. The hash rate it self will not be the only factor driving the bitcoin prices , like empoweoqwj said until and unless services and goods dont come up for bitcoin people will have no place to spend those bitcoin, if they can spend the coins the price wont increase because the demand for bitcoin wont be that much. When demand is low the miners or hordes holding the bitcoin panic and start selling low and prices go down . Yes, that's why i said both things. "ASIC miner and worldwide adoptation" ASIC Miner is not a service, Its a bitcoin generation/(transaction verification) entity all miners are. Adoption will only come if there is a utility in the bitcoin. Adoption will also come when people will see profit in it and about asic, i think you misunderstood my point. I want to say More asic machines => difficult level will go super high => Bitcoins will be hard to mine with normal cards => New People will buy from others instead of mining coins themselves => Bitcoins per user ratio will go low* => More demand/less supply => Price go high. Ps: It's a long process I'm not talking about instant bubble. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: subvolatil on June 21, 2013, 02:52:16 AM Adoption will also come when people will see profit in it and about asic, i think you misunderstood my point. I want to say More asic machines => difficult level will go super high => Bitcoins will be hard to mine with normal cards => New People will buy from others instead of mining coins themselves => Bitcoins per user ratio will go low* => More demand/less supply => Price go high. Ps: It's a long process I'm not talking about instant bubble. You are slightly wrong on your premises, the problem here is that you are trying to correlate adoption of bitcoin with profit. which is wrong. Firstly, profit is only a business driven goal. if a business sees profit in bitcoin then that business is surely meant to fail. but a business seeing bitcoin as having utility makes more sense. this being a cardinal utility. The reason why i dont see ASIC's entering the market as a problem in price fluctuation. are because of the factors that right now determine the price is not the hash rate but the overall use of bitcoin and its utility. Before hash rates can make any dent in the price system the following conditions have to be fulfilled:- 1. Services being offered should be reasonable. 2. use and adoption to the masses should be easy. 3. spending should match earnings in relation to bitcoin. 4. Bitcoin should be readily accessible to people. 5. Strong reason to use bitcoin over conventional monetary systems. All these factors are subjected again by governmental, individual, corporate control and regulation. Making it that much harder to fulfill the conditions mentioned above. If you look at the Hash rate chart of the past one year the hashrate does not correlate with the price changes in the past 6 months. https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: skysnap on June 21, 2013, 06:04:39 AM 1. Easy withdrawal to local banks or cheque (which is quite less these days)
2. Less popularity of other payment processor and their resident currency system like perfect money etc. Less usage of these will increase number of people coming to the bitcoin. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Darktongue on June 21, 2013, 06:15:14 AM I think it could be close in three months. But for the sake of the nitpick I'll use 5 Months.
Remember when it shot from $8 to $10 then $15 then back to $8. Everyone screamed bubble and I'm sure for a moment it was. A few months later $15 was where it would hold. Same trend happend before it reached $30-$70. Then it hit over $100. Then ee had the bubble to $250. I speculate within 5 months it will be at $250ish as a natural flow. Perhaps close to $400 in 11 months Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: skysnap on June 21, 2013, 06:51:38 AM I doubt it would be close to 400$. I guess it requires a lot of time and for 500 bucks though, not by small margin that amount is easy to get.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 21, 2013, 07:42:25 AM related question: What could be the trigger to push BTC below US $5?
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 09:11:03 AM related question: What could be the trigger to push BTC below US $5? I do not think that there is anything in the current path that could do that. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 21, 2013, 09:20:16 AM picture this: Bitcoin is used to fund some terrorists who do another Boston Bombing
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 09:25:53 AM picture this: Bitcoin is used to fund some terrorists who do another Boston Bombing And, this is something that money does not already fund? If they want to do something radical, I doubt if Bitcoin's measly 1.5B value will help them much and if it's value does go higher, then there will be an economy that may be able to support it. Once again, most of this is speculative. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: buysellbitcoin on June 21, 2013, 09:35:28 AM picture this: Bitcoin is used to fund some terrorists who do another Boston Bombing Really, is it issue of Bitcoin ? Cheers Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 21, 2013, 09:56:40 AM Normal money is traceable. The anonymity of Bitcoin makes it attractive to terrorists, unfortunately.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 10:01:14 AM Normal money is traceable. The anonymity of Bitcoin makes it attractive to terrorists, unfortunately. Bitcoin is way less anonymous than cash. You should read up a bit on this. Bitcoin is pseudoanonymous, which means that if you wanna do something really dangerous, better to use cash. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 21, 2013, 10:31:24 AM I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 10:38:42 AM I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked. Well, unless something like zerocoin comes in, technically, the mixing service is a brick and mortar store that can be taken down quite easily. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 21, 2013, 10:40:42 AM a good one, like BlockChain.info, deletes it logs after a few hours. so taking it down won't help.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 10:43:29 AM a good one, like BlockChain.info, deletes it logs after a few hours. so taking it down won't help. Edit: Blockchain.ino can be taken down. well, i still do not see it crashing down to US $5 :P.. May sustain around 50 or 80+ for sure. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: buysellbitcoin on June 21, 2013, 10:54:23 AM I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked. Mixing service just makes it a bit ( may be very as of now ) hard to trace the coins, but frankly speaking with bitcoin protocol I do not find it impossible to trace. The thing is that at the moment there is no real motivation for some one to write a tool to trace mixed coins transaction. If some one ( Government or any other thing ) wants it is possible to do that. Bitcoin is not anonymous, at least as long as I see it :) As far as normal money concerns, normal money is not easily traceable, the real advantage bitcoin gives is it allows you to store a good amount of wealth without need of much physical space. It is just like its much easy to hide it in black and dark than cash. But as far as trace ability concerns, well, bitcoin is much more convenient to trace than cash. Cheers Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 10:57:02 AM I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked. Mixing service just makes it a bit ( may be very as of now ) hard to trace the coins, but frankly speaking with bitcoin protocol I do not find it impossible to trace. The thing is that at the moment there is no real motivation for some one to write a tool to trace mixed coins transaction. If some one ( Government or any other thing ) wants it is possible to do that. Bitcoin is not anonymous, at least as long as I see it :) As far as normal money concerns, normal money is not easily traceable, the real advantage bitcoin gives is it allows you to store a good amount of wealth without need of much physical space. It is just like its much easy to hide it in black and dark than cash. But as far as trace ability concerns, well, bitcoin is much more convenient to trace than cash. Cheers Agreed, Bitcoin is better for in-game micropayments, small and medium businesses, export/ import and many other applications. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: skysnap on June 21, 2013, 01:51:29 PM The problem with indian govt and RBI approaching bitcoin is like rich people using it as a way to avoid tax. Well they can do that directly by bribing, i don't see this happening for terrorism. In fact why would anyone use bitcoin when they can use cash in small chunks like say below 1 lakh per account and then rotating it for that use. it is not hard for them to do such as many brokers and real estate agents use such strategies for years.
Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: AbraxasCcs on June 21, 2013, 02:12:59 PM Normal money is traceable. The anonymity of Bitcoin makes it attractive to terrorists, unfortunately. Cash is about normal money. Cash is anonymous and untraceable too. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Benson Samuel on June 21, 2013, 04:56:50 PM I can't think how a good mixing service can be cracked. When is your SMS service to be launched to the public BTW? It is very cool. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: laserwolf on June 23, 2013, 03:30:17 PM Why thanks Benson.
I created it as a private service for my own trading. not sure about making it public as of now. for others, the service basically sends an sms when BTCUSD moves in steps of $5. well reputed peeps can PM me to be included. Title: Re: What could be the trigger to push BTC above US $500? Post by: Street Jammer on June 24, 2013, 09:08:58 AM Less coins per block , Paypal , visa / any country announce BTC as their national currency might take take to $500
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