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Title: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: semaforo on June 28, 2013, 05:38:02 AM Just thought I'd post something that occurred to me after reading an article on The Genesis Block about the decline of bitcoin software downloads. I had been excited hearing about the surge of downloads in China, and thought that the new Chinese wealthy would rush into bitcoin driving a massive rally as all the new Chinese millionaires rejoiced over finally being free from capital controls. Then downloads declined steeply.
Anyway, Jonathan Stacke, the author of the article I read, pointed out that the rate of decline in new downloads is slowing worldwide, but that the rate at which new downloads is declining is also slowing. This leads me to believe that we may be heading towards a floor after which the adoption rate will begin to increase as interest consolidates. Think about pathogens- when one is infected with a cold, it can take anywhere from 4 days to two weeks for symptoms to start to appear. The rate of infection for someone like me, who is very critical of the state and studies the global economy, was very rapid. Within three days of hearing about bitcoin I was buying as much as I could. I can only assume that for people who are more entrenched in existing economic structures and less critical and informed, there will be a lot more resistance to the infection. I checked google trend again and I also see a clear slowing in the rate of decline in search volume for bitcoin. It looks like for the next month if the trend continues that the line will be flattening out, and from there I don't see it going anywhere but up. Barring another Cyprus or similar event, I think it is not a matter of if adoption will bottom out, it is just a question of how long it will remain flat and when it starts to rise how steep and how fast the rise will be. Of course, I am talking about adoption- if price follows the rate of adoption, I would think that for anyone considering buying right now that we have not seen the bottom yet in price. My intuition says the bottom is about 3 weeks from now. There, it's on the record. Title: Re: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: Frozenlock on June 28, 2013, 05:47:56 AM Within three days of hearing about bitcoin I was buying as much as I could. Did you buy when the price was going up Up UP? :P Title: Re: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: semaforo on June 28, 2013, 06:57:22 AM Within three days of hearing about bitcoin I was buying as much as I could. Did you buy when the price was going up Up UP? :P No, luckily I first got in when the Dwolla's Gox account got seized and there was a dip. Title: Re: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: vokain on June 28, 2013, 07:03:21 AM I'm afraid I've lost my faith in Bitcoin. Somebody save me.. thats because you are reading the high price which is always volatile.. check out the monthly low price.. you will see there is a constant rise. the low price is more of the indicator of true value and growth indicators.. the high price is just pure speculation and should be ignored for long term investors http://i43.tinypic.com/se8108.jpg Title: Re: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: smoothie on June 28, 2013, 07:10:23 AM I love the slow fall...
Next to happen after we level off...is the GRRRRRRRRRIND! Title: Re: Slowing in the rate of decline Post by: Dalib on June 28, 2013, 08:59:12 AM I'm afraid I've lost my faith in Bitcoin. Somebody save me.. thats because you are reading the high price which is always volatile.. check out the monthly low price.. you will see there is a constant rise. the low price is more of the indicator of true value and growth indicators.. the high price is just pure speculation and should be ignored for long term investors http://i43.tinypic.com/se8108.jpg yes, if not break 88 (or 93 from June in July), yet still true that "the cheapest coins are every month more and more expensive" ... This trend is breaking just now :( |
