Bitcoin Forum

There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again? :D

I'm not THAT bearish.

Are you?

I confess. But I dont think its going to be hit for a long time, or by then, USD wont be what we measure bitcoins value in :P

We got a long ways away until 1 mBTC = $1.  But I guess predictions are always good.

No.

See this post is funny because OP meant per BTC! Ha-ha!

It MIGHT dip temporarily to single digits, but, absent down right catastrophic news, I don't believe it will stay for long under $10. Too much loose fiat around in the strong hands that sold around the peak.

I've been wrong before, though. In late 2011 I thought the price wouldn't dip under $4, at least not for an extended time.

I really doubt this will happen.

However if the price goes down as low as $20 anything's possible.

im single digit fan, i think real bitcoin value is 3$=1BTC

I don't believe in it, but I don't discount the possibility.

It would require a lot of fuckups over many months, the death of altcoins and hostile legislation. I think Bitcoiners are capable of that but its a long way to actually have such a situation.

What about sub-dollar believers? Anyone in the room?

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Anyhow, I guess when there will be many single digits and sub-dollar believers we will be reaching the bottom ;)

I'll create this thread should we ever hit single digits again. :D

Enough of them to deflate this bubble.

Definitely YES. If not "all", at least most of them.

People here get fooled by the romantic/revolutionary stuff. This is business. This is money. It's not a game.

And we are deflating a bubble.

Sorry, but in my book the "smart" thing is to sell at the highest possible point, especially after an obvious bubble popped, in order to buy lower and increase your stash, while recouping your initial investment and possibly realizing some fiat profits.

I'm all for the "revolutionary" aspect of Bitcoin, I'm a true believer, I have a paper wallet with a non-negligible amount of Bitcoins that I will never touch because I cannot bear (LOL) the thought of being "totally out", but at the end of the day Bitcoin is still money... And if you want to do good, you need more of it, and there's no point in fighting the market, just follow it and try to profit as much as possible.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1372413721617.png

Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend. :D

I think I would surrender its not 2011 and a real coin that surpasses bitcoin must have been born

Don't understand what you are trying to tell me. I just showed you why 10k or 20k buys change nothing as long as they're against the trend.

It's the good 'ol "If we just buy it to above where it crashed from it will sure go up." - fallacy.

The harsh reality is that "whales" that bought high, will sell low rather sooner than later, pushing the price down hard with their high volume. That's how market psychology works.

Oh, now I see what he was saying. I don't think those sudden buys are mostly for the longer term. If their trades don't work out, they sell. And even if so, we are going down despite it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish on the long term myself. It will be much easier to act on that once this bubble nears finishing deflating. :D

Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?

Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:


Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me. :D

Buy when prices are falling if you must and you are a long term holder.

But...Never trade against the trend.

Even if you are buying for the long haul, you want to enter at the lowest point possible, so pay attention to the trend.

When the trend changes, remember: no one ever went broke taking a profit.

Confess? Ok I CONFESS. lol. As if it is a sin to observe an obvious trend/fact.

I expect the price will stabilize between 20 and 50$.  I seriously doubt it will go past 100$ for years.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251347

The only way i see this changing is if there is some massive reason to buy into bitcoins.  The current inflation rate from mining is too high.

If demand really drops, and AM brings full hashpower online and dumps, it may drop into single digits temporarily, but I don't think it will stay there

Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached, due to Bitcoin's inherent value as a pseudonymous payment system, i.e. to buy black market goods on SR etc. and through private sales/for money laundering.

Although I didn't expect this recent slide from ~$100 to ~$70, I can't see how it would be possible for the USD value to drop below roughly $30 for any extended period of time, and that's a conservative estimate, more like $40-$50 I reckon.

I also think there will be huge buying pressure if the value does drop to these levels, I mean not much has inherently changed in the system apart from the ASICs, which aren't actually increasing the speed of coin production/inflation. There is also a lot more legal/legit bitcoin accepting merchants than there were when SR went viral and BTC was worth $5-$10.

Barring a huge snafu event (flaw in the protocol/51% attack) I just don't see how single digits are possible. Am I missing something?

http://img.pandawhale.com/30768-Emma-Watson-raise-hand-Conan-g-FDcJ.gif

I believe (and have been saying it for a while).

Yup. That number would be zero.

2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.

This one probably won't. There is far more mining infrastructure, support, businesses, etc. There is too much "crap in the way." Deflating to below the start of the bubble was far more likely in 2011 than it is now, and it didn't happen then.

Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2.  The log chart does not give the complete picture of the Bitcoin economy in 2011.

Debatable.  I think a lot of people would argue that the bubble started from the much longerlasting $1 - $0.7 plateau.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-11-25zeg2011-08-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in.  Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)

yes please. go back to zero.

Ok, but then the latest bubble didn't start at $10-15 either.  More like $30-50 if I remember correctly (most profoundly at the $50 'plateau').

I'd call it at somewhere near $30.  Thats when media started picking back up again with "BTC near ATH" type articles causing renewed interest by the public.

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects (particularly in volume), I'd expect a deeper crash this time.

IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.

$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds

$30 ---> $266
8 folds

is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?  

that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.

Again, I put the 2011 bubble hitting at $7, which gives growth of less than 5x.  At $1-$2 the trading was done primarily within the community and media attention/attention by the general public hadn't hit yet.  I think the Wired article was the big mark for the first bubble.

That aside, you are ignoring volume, amount of media attention, amount of hype within the community, and absolute price.  This bubble was much larger, IMO.

Seems pretty likely to me.  I also think it will take quite while before we find the final bottom.

it's actually from $13, so 20 folds

Yeah, I would say 2011: 30 fold, 2013: 20 fold
so, 2015 : 10 fold?
--> and 2019 : CRASHH !!!   ;)

If you are going to ignore media/public attention in 2011 to call the bubble at 1-2, I'd have to say 2013's bubble started at 10 based on volume and rate of price increase.

No worries, this all comes down to personal opinion and how you read the data....we are not all going to come to the same conclusions.

Sure, but I wouldn't call this bubble bigger than the 2011 one.

No? Setting aside percentage (because we are not going to agree on where the bubbles began), look at the volume between 2011 and 2013.   Look at media coverage in 2011 vs 2013.  Look at the hype on this forum in 2011 vs 2013.

How exactly was the bubble bigger in 2011?  I honestly don't see it.



volume chart and closing price for reference:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

I look at the Bitcoin "ecosystem" and compare it with the price.

From the unencrypted wallet.dat in 2011 to casually paying my SSL certificates with bitcoins in 2013.

And how does that make the 2011 bubble bigger?  Why is that metric more important to quantifying the bubble than things volume, media coverage, and hype within the community (or the aggregate data of those metrics combined)?

(2011 price / 2011 ecosystem)  > (2013 price / 2013 ecosystem)

Are we going to disagree on this also?  :)

edit:

All those must be compared with the current ecosystem.

I don't care if the volume is 10 times bigger if there's a hundred times more way to use Bitcoin.


edit 2:

All those "metrics" mean nothing in a vacuum.
Is the USD in a bubble?
Daily volume is huuuuuge!
There's also a massive media coverage and hype in the community.

Yes I think we are.

Very much so, in fact (and in multiple ways).

I prefer to look at prices (and pretty much everything) with a log scale:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

2011 seems bigger and steeper.  :P

Anyhow, how deep we go will probably settle this.
Let's necro this thread in a year!

Note the quotation marks. I didn't give a time reference (Bitcoin will probably not be worth anything in 20-200 years), but mid term Bitcoin will never go to zero barring a catastrophic flaw in the protocol, or if TOR, SHA256 and PGP are all compromised in the near future. I reckon the chances of this are a million to one at least, with the a weakness in the protocol being by far the more likely option.

Still, I think that >$30 coins are highly improbable.

Actually, I looked at some metrics yesterday, and if you look at bitcoin purely from the "medium of exchange" point of view, so various metrics normalized versus the number of transactions, the 2013 bubble was a lot bubblier, and we are still very much overvalued. 

However, I have believed from the start (had some discussions about this with E. Mucus) that people would feel safer and safer to keep their bitcoins around, and it would start serving more as a store of value, and from the data, there certainly is a case to be made for this as well. 

PS: I also think that you should look at the price in log terms.

Difficult to say when the bubble started exactly.

Things got some steam for sure when we reached $20, there was a lot of positive media attention regarding how "the hacker currency" was steadily raising.

Then the shit definitely hit the fan when we broke $32, the media attention at that point ("BTC is going up uP UP!") was continuous and there the growth trend went insane.

Judging from the fact that in 2012, the market have no problem buying all the 7200 produce bitcoins per day at double digit,  there is no reason that bitcoin price can go back to single digit value now that the production per day has been cut by half.

Unless there is a serious vulnerability to the bitcoin network, such as IBM shipping quantum computers in large volume, I don't think we will go any lower than $25 till 2017

I think it's 50:50 that it'll reach single figures.

This bubble seems to be about the same size as the 2011 one -

2011 $30 dollars at peak instead of $2.50ish by my reckoning (12 fold increase on growth estimate )
2013 $266 dollars at peak instead of $21ish (12.5 fold increase).

If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression. 

I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it.... ;D

There's a difference.
In 2011, when the bubble popped, there was nothing to compare to.
Was it the end of Bitcoin?

Now (almost) everyone is expecting a crash and a new rise, just like 2011.

Which is why I suspect it will only go down to about $20

Maybe, but for the moment I'm betting it'll be a more visceral (and uninformed) response to the deflation that drives the lows. Bids will go back through fear, greed and over-excitement.

You guys are so depressing.
Just quit comparing BTC to $, even if they're still tradable.
Consider BTC like another step towards individual freedom.
BTC does not need to be traded to $, the king of money laundering fiat. Keep your dirty $. We keep the BTC.

Repeat that simple poem:
Fuck governments. Fuck banks. Get the power.

Help BTC rise or... watch and die.

agree, just try to move $ between exchanges, then try to do the same with bitcoins. And then try to say that $3=1BTC its laughable. BTC owns $$$ in every single aspect. Its value is nowhere near parity and its low currently because people are greedy and want to get many of them at very low price. But guess what. Holders are not stupid and wont sell that cheap.

It is still a very long way from single digit, I don't think it is possible.

and dont forget to tell people in africa and argentina and even in china to not buy more bitcoins because you want to stock up with cheap ones first haha. keep on dreaming. when someone will buy out alot of them from gox and arbitrage in argentina then you will be kicking yourself hard for not buying at prices we see now. and nobody is going to inform us before he is going to do this.

not a believer, but deff possible. bitcoin would be fine, just the permabulls would be butthurt  8)