Confess, Single Digit Believers

[Rampion]

How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY  haha

img: http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1372413721617.png

Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.

Check out the bold dude, they might be laughing at you soon

The harsh reality is that "whales" that bought high, will sell low rather sooner than later, pushing the price down hard with their high volume. That's how market psychology works.

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[N12]

Oh, now I see what he was saying. I don't think those sudden buys are mostly for the longer term. If their trades don't work out, they sell. And even if so, we are going down despite it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish on the long term myself. It will be much easier to act on that once this bubble nears finishing deflating.

[N12]

How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY  haha

Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.

Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?

[N12]

Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:

How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY  haha

Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.

Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?

Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.

[Wagner2014]

Buy when prices are falling if you must and you are a long term holder.

But...Never trade against the trend.

Even if you are buying for the long haul, you want to enter at the lowest point possible, so pay attention to the trend.

When the trend changes, remember: no one ever went broke taking a profit.

[gmaki]

There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again?

Confess? Ok I CONFESS. lol. As if it is a sin to observe an obvious trend/fact.

[ecliptic]

I expect the price will stabilize between 20 and 50$.  I seriously doubt it will go past 100$ for years.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251347

The only way i see this changing is if there is some massive reason to buy into bitcoins.  The current inflation rate from mining is too high.

If demand really drops, and AM brings full hashpower online and dumps, it may drop into single digits temporarily, but I don't think it will stay there

[protokol]

Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached, due to Bitcoin's inherent value as a pseudonymous payment system, i.e. to buy black market goods on SR etc. and through private sales/for money laundering.

Although I didn't expect this recent slide from ~$100 to ~$70, I can't see how it would be possible for the USD value to drop below roughly $30 for any extended period of time, and that's a conservative estimate, more like $40-$50 I reckon.

I also think there will be huge buying pressure if the value does drop to these levels, I mean not much has inherently changed in the system apart from the ASICs, which aren't actually increasing the speed of coin production/inflation. There is also a lot more legal/legit bitcoin accepting merchants than there were when SR went viral and BTC was worth $5-$10.

Barring a huge snafu event (flaw in the protocol/51% attack) I just don't see how single digits are possible. Am I missing something?

[evolve]

I believe (and have been saying it for a while).

[evolve]

Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached,

Yup. That number would be zero.

[BitcoinAshley]

2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.

This one probably won't. There is far more mining infrastructure, support, businesses, etc. There is too much "crap in the way." Deflating to below the start of the bubble was far more likely in 2011 than it is now, and it didn't happen then.

[evolve]

2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.

Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2.  The log chart does not give the complete picture of the Bitcoin economy in 2011.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.

Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2.

Debatable.  I think a lot of people would argue that the bubble started from the much longerlasting $1 - $0.7 plateau.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-11-25zeg2011-08-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

[evolve]

I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in.  Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)

[tokeweed]

There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again?

yes please. go back to zero.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in.  Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)

Ok, but then the latest bubble didn't start at $10-15 either.  More like $30-50 if I remember correctly (most profoundly at the $50 'plateau').

[evolve]

I'd call it at somewhere near $30.  Thats when media started picking back up again with "BTC near ATH" type articles causing renewed interest by the public.

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects (particularly in volume), I'd expect a deeper crash this time.

[Frozenlock]

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.

IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.

$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds

$30 ---> $266
8 folds

[tokeweed]

is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?  

that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.

[evolve]

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.

IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.

$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds

$30 ---> $266
8 folds

Again, I put the 2011 bubble hitting at $7, which gives growth of less than 5x.  At $1-$2 the trading was done primarily within the community and media attention/attention by the general public hadn't hit yet.  I think the Wired article was the big mark for the first bubble.

That aside, you are ignoring volume, amount of media attention, amount of hype within the community, and absolute price.  This bubble was much larger, IMO.