Bitcoin Forum

I predict a massive rebound up into the triple digits next week. Right now there's lots of fear in the market and people are sending their coins en masse into MtGox to sell. Fiat however doesn't move as fast, it takes a few days to arrive and up until last Thursday USD withdrawals were impossible which doesn't help either. I mean who wants to send in their fiat when you know your USD will be stuck in there? So let's sit back and watch how after the weekend lots of fiat starts pooring in to scoop up some cheap coins which will lead to a massive wave of panic buying. You've heard it here first, don't be left behind when it begins. 8)

Watching for the letdown  8)

Figured the same thing last week.

The BTC/LTC trade on BTC-e has been awesome. I'm mining Litecoins like crazy, and buying up cheap Bitcoins. Whether it's next week, or Autumn, the price will eventually go back up.

My prediction is that it will stabilize around 68-69 tonight, fluctuate ±$3 Saturday and Sunday, and drop by Monday down to low 60's.

It better break, now is less than $70 getting worrying

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=xrp%2C+btc#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q

google trends goin up

It would be funny if all the bears ended up being wrong and there actually is a massive rally sometime this month.

Well, that's what cold wallets exist for. In case I'm wrong, I'll still be rich. Just a little less rich than if I was right.  8)

Ah, thanks for that. Forgot about Google trends.

Speaking of which, I've chatted with my supervisor before about Bitcoin and mining. Today he told me NPR did a segment on Bitcoin. Very rarely do I have people coming up to me saying their heard about bitcoin on the radio/tv. Popularity going up is usually a good sign of the value going up.

Exactly my thoughts. It'll be worth something someday. I'm not in a rush or need money at the moment. I can wait.

+1

I think it needs to go down to about the same price after the big gox fail & flash crash ($57ish). There will likely be some support there, forming a double bottom, giving the market the little bit of a confidence boost it desperately needs to actually start a rally again.

ok. sell your mom and buy bitcoins with the proceeds. you might make enough to buy two moms.

looking at the weekly I don't see a rebound happening any time soon... Show some charts instead of FUD

Well this ones creative.

Bulls who have been around a while have always been rewarded with patience.

The trend is your friend, and the trend is down my friend. We are more likely to go down than up - the trend says.

The presence of 'bulls' when we have lost 40% in the last 10 days indicates we will go lower. Wait for capitulation and then a change of trend.

I like this idea.

It never goes in a straight line. We are very oversold now so a rebound is not out of the ordinary. General trend seems to be down though.

"It never goes in a straight line" - agreed. Lower highs and lower lows on the way down. The opposite on the way up.

no rebound till i finish my dumps :)

Your dumps aren't effective, price is rising.

A massive rally in a bear market is likely a dead cat bounce(bull-trap). It most likely have to stabilize at some price before it can take off again in a meaningful way.

So, what are you doing, dumping as the price goes lower and lower to ensure you convert into less and less cash?

i think there is some more to the downside. there is still alot of optimism ie"this is just normal behavor, charts etc" I think unless there is some unbelieveable news, i am thinking that there will have to be blood in the streets to start doing any type of serious buying. Kinda scary ALOT of people buying on the way down...hope your all right?

Personally,

Bitcoin started as proof of concept and mostly geeks are into it.

Then it grew big and financial people got into the bandwagon.

As with all financial instruments, speculation and hedging got into the game too.

Hence, price will move up and down.

The big boys will try to push up the price, and the rest of the boys will be chasing it. Then they will sell out (cash out), then there will be panic selling.  This is VERY COMMON in stock market .

There are two players in Bitcoin Price :

1. The Miners
2. The Traders.

Price will eventually stablised when it makes more sense to Trade rather than to mine. Anything BELOW that, is a BUY for Bitcoin, anything ABOVE that is speculative price.

This is the basic of ECONOMICS, DEMAND and SUPPLY curve.

Dude! Are you going to spam this whole board with this?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250988.msg2670888#msg2670888

are there really people with hundred's of thousands of dollars really trying to day trade bitcoins?  personally I dont think the risk is worth the reward on an unregulated market. if you buy 500 coins that is say $35000. you are paying a premium in the form of a dollar or two spread because it is so thinly traded and same on the back end when you sell. so you are basically down $1000 minimum on the spread buying and selling. so if has to go up $3 for you to make $1 on each coin. not worth it in my book.

Better don't put all your eggs in one basket, just taken a look, price is now $69.50 :(

starting to go up yay! now I just need to get back to $100 to break even.

The general trend is still down.

it's interesting to see the "avalon bitcoin" trend

I had a grandpa that talked about his daily dumps too. ::) you either want everybody to think you have the power and the wealth or you are into punishing yourself and want everyone to think this down trend is your fault. It is my experience in these hills, movers and shakers operate in secret. It's the wanna bees that take the credit. And the real movers and shakers are fine with that.

I think Coinsetter starting up in July is going to be a factor in this rebound.

Also looking forward to more announcements from Mt.Gox in the next week or two.

i dont think we have hit a period of capitulation for the traders as of yet, and certainly not the miners. 

also we have to factor in a few things that are happening.

first, the velocity of money flowing between USD and BTC may have slowed down recently due to certain avenues becoming closed for people to buy into BTC

second, the money supply of dollars for btc which is manifested in spot price is decreasing to pay for all those ASICs being produced.


until those fundamentals change, and they will but not until end of summer or early fall, we will be stuck in this downtrend
 

You are right except that we are not in a "bear market": this is just a drowned fish (bear-trap)

Rally  8)

Can people please stop calling things bear-traps and bull-traps? Its really getting on my nerves. A bear can easily profit from a bear-trap by selling at the top and buying at the bottom and a bull can easily profit from a bull-trap by buying at the bottom and selling at the top. So honestly the entire thing of "your just buying into a bull trap or selling into a bear trap" is ludicrous considering you can actually make money by being 'trapped.'

Oohhhhh yeeeaaaaaahh! 8) Everyone's starting to freak out on the btc-e chat.

Well there you have it, guys! BTC-E's troll box is exploding! Buy 'em while they're cheap!!!!

Well now it's all about religion... Meh. But take a look at mtgoxlive right now!
https://i.imgur.com/evZ9Sjf.png

It will be in the 90's by next week.  Great news, Gox on track... Long weekend over.

Lower floor reached last week... Rebound and upswing starting again.

Buy now while its cheap and make your 30%+ when she hits 100...

TC

Cheers mate. ;D

Because TC said so.

It looks promising that over 2 million from Bitfloor is going to be refunded this week or next week.  Will all of that money go back into Bitcon?  Well we know that the holders of that cash are people that know about Bitcoin and obviously have an interest in it so I think it could cause a spike in price when those funds are deposited at another exchange?

Just thinking about it.  I know that I have a little cash coming and I am tempted to throw it back into BTC.  Granted, the amount Bitfloor owes me is not a huge amount.

Bitfloor refund information: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.msg2703033#msg2703033

https://i.imgur.com/1GI5HnA.png

 :P

I think this is a very interesting observation. Not convinced yet that it applies to bitcoin though. With gold or any other commodity one can see that eventually price will hover around production cost because indeed production stops when price is below production cost and thus supply shrinks dramatically catching up with demand eventually. With bitcoin however the supply does not change! It's always constant, even when the price is below the production cost and many miners go bust, the amount of bitcoins mined does not go down but remains the same! And vice versa, when price is above production costs, many miners make profits but the amount of bitcoins mined does not go up!

This might explain why prices go higher percentage wise on bubbles, and lower percentage wise on busts, because there is no balancing of supply from production.

We hit the 90$ and are now slowly  droppin back to 70$

Looks up to me.

yes, looks like we'll see triple digits soon

primary trend has always been up,  what we had was a secondary bear correction

Do you think it's over?

I thought we would spend a bit more time in the $60's... really curious to see what the weekend and next week will bring.

actually I thought we should reach 50 before going up.. but probably many people thought so and hurried to buy at 60.

Bwahahahaha  ;D
For now

 Do you want to sell at 90? 80? 70? 60? I don't. I think long term it's risky to bet against the trend is all.

we came back to $100... and we didn't spend much time below $70... even though we are below $100 currently due to some correction, it looks like $100-$120 is a good price for near future..

Great call! :)

Are you still not trading?

My technique is to simply buy as it goes down and sell as it goes up.

This way I remove my emotions and it's been very profitable for me.

I was out of cash once the recent drop went beyond $76 to $65 but since it's again above $90 it's been again profitable for me.

Selling as it goes up now ...

I plan to switch to a buy and hold only when chances are high we reached bottom. 

Thanks, I do trade but only with a small portion of my bitcoins and I'm just following the long term trend and try to buy the dips. I'm better at buying dips than I am at selling the tops though. Like you I'm not convinced we've hit bottom yet, but my feelings say otherwise. I probably should start to take some profits soon, but like I said I'm just bad at it. :(

I think it is impossible to predict short term - and - long term price movements with any certainty. Even if chances are high for something to happen, it can still not work out.

The only thing you can do is indeed evaluate the risk/reward. Clearly when prices have gone up the risk for it to drop goes also up, and the potential reward goes down. If risk/reward is not as favorable logic dictates you want to have a lower exposure and when it is more favorable you want to have a higher exposure. This leads to buying as it goes down and selling as it goes up. The lower it goes the more coins you want to buy, the higher it goes the more coins you want to sell.

And no prediction is required with this strategy. You can be totally wrong in your prediction but you will still have bought most of the coins on the bottom and have sold most of the coins at the top, whatever that turns out to be.

yep its 70 and droping....oh no thats nor right. its 95 and going up. i bout a lot at 70 ill sell half at 110. or in four days. but good callon the 70s you are amazingly wrong!!! hahahah

Heh, yeah, but the market still seems undecided right now. Small/medium buyers and sellers holding steady in the 90s. No large players or whales. 

+1 this is fact

It is going to be about 3 digit now but the drop earlier on was scary

Amazing prediction :D