Bitcoin Forum

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

You'r argument has no validation from my point of view, elaborate it a lil bit more fruther explanation is needed.

troll.

Your prediction is too low. In cases Bitcoin can go down as low as $3K there must be something so bad happening in the market causing such a development. Now, if there would be no big bad news, there is no possibility that it can go down on that level because every time there is a small dip or crash, there are people waiting in the sideline looking for that opportunity to get into Bitcoin. Just look at the charts for you to see what I mean. As long as there is a good demand, Bitcoin can continue on surging ahead. Now, if you are sure that Bitcoin can be $3k soon then the best thing for you to do is sell all of your Bitcoin and then wait for that big dip to happen. And good luck...

i am not going to say it is right or wrong, just two things:

these things never work, they there to make traders feel better and when it comes to bitcoin they are there for fun because bitcoin doesn't follow any rules of traditional market.

quite the opposite actually!
when majority strongly believe something will happen, that thing will happen. for example we all know the block halving effect comes at least 2 months after it happens. but the price rise starts 2 months before its date because people strongly believe price will rise because of it!
or a more recent example is the SegWit2x cancellation which everyone strongly believed bitcoin cash will rise because of it, and it certainly did.

I wouldn't call him a troll, just someone who has a contrary view of bitcoin.  I see a lot of idiotic bulls who think bitcoin is "increasing day by day" and blah blah blah, and they think it could never dip below whatever the new all-time high is.  And they're completely wrong.  The folks who think bitcoin's next stop is $50k are being extremely optimistic, but dropping to $3000?  Yeah, don't discount that possibility because it certainly could happen.  You never know what governments are going to do or how sentiment can change in a heartbeat.  And this is exactly what happens in runaway bull markets.  The people who are even the tiniest bit bearish bet crucified, like this guy.

OP, and add this sentence to the title, "Then that will be another opportunity to buy more!". Thanks.

It would be nice of Mr. Market to give some of us another chance to join the ride to the moon. Hehehe.

Yeah your right. I think OP's view is quite realistic because I myself don't believe that bitcoin would continue to be on an upward trend day by day with only a little dip after crazy pump, the value of it now is overvalued, driven merely by speculation. I am sure that the time OP is referring to will come soon since bitcoin's rise has been on a prolonged bullish run already. Just you wait we would see another great chance to join the ride to the moon next time.

You are a newbie, why we should trust you? You are just a scumbag who has been posting trash in the forum to join a signature campaign.


Came on people, just look at the post history of this guy, he doesnt know anything, he is just posting crap iall around the forum posting always the same.

How do you know that it will have a new dip of $3,000? Are you the second hand of Satoshi? I guess that you are not.

I'm open to contrarian viewpoints, and frankly I'd love to see this happen. It's getting harder and harder to accumulate BTC, so a 75% drop from here sounds like a godsend.

Regarding pattern extrapolation, though: If we could expect 80-95% price drops the last couple times around, chances are that we can't expect such deep crashes next time. That's just my experience. Everyone thinks bubble pop = an easy 5x on their coins, so it probably won't happen this time.

The '2' is a clue of a hacked account returned in a different form.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=149230

This poster has been here for years and correctly called the post 2013 crash. I have no idea whether 3 grand is at all realistic but they'll have more clue than most of us.

Anyone who's been around since 2013 or earlier knows we will be back to $3k eventually.

I believe there will be a dip and it will happened because from all sudden rising history there will be one point people starting to sell to reap the profit, but $3000 fall is a bit too much, but although it's down that much the price will recover  in just few days, a lot of people are looking for the timing to buy bitcoin, when it fall that much I am sure all people will rush to buy

Bitcoin will never fall under 5k again. Those days are gone. Too much new money, adoption, and growth.

My guess, 10k will be the bottom of the next bear market after the 2018 high of 70-100k.

OP must have missed the train and got left on platform. But you know what, there is a train coming through every single day and I believe Bitcoin is very severely undervalued at this time. Anyone not getting into the game will regret it more and more as years go by.

20 years from now, there will be two classes of people, those who bought Bitcoins and those who did not.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. That is the first rule of trading and in fact this is stated in just about any financial product prospectus.

I know that you are not in any signature campaign, do you think if you are not in any campaign, no body is going to report you for double posting? you can't find a lowlife beggar with no dignity other than me around here, I'm not double posting, are you lower than me? lol in magnitude of 12.
I need to agree with OP, because even with this price, no body is giving me even 1.5BTC no matter how I beg them, so if they don't want to share the wealth with others, let them lose this wealth when price drops back to $3000. I suggest you to pay me if you don't want to beg in streets, are you seriously going to let Bitcoin die for a small amount? it's just 1.5BTC. magnitude of 10.

Before proceeding upwards to $100K followed by a crash to $30K. If you short at $100K just don't make the mistake of waiting for cheap $20K coins because that won't happen.

I really would like to know how you arrived at your conclusion. I mean it could happen and bitcoin could go back to 3000$ but that doesn't mean your calculation was correct.

He also screwed up basically all calls after that  ::)
I think there should be an old bitcoiner disease called mtgox post traumatic stress disorder, where you keep making predictions of btc going to 500$ or 1000$ (note, he said 'at least 3000')

You are vastly underestimating how low it's going to go. By a lot.

Good call..

I also agree with the OP but I hope it's more like 5-7k area though if the lowest it will ever go from here is 3k then I'm happy with that..

Why? Anytime I've ever seen anyone make a comment like this, they were dead wrong. People with that attitude bought at $800, $600, $400 and ridiculed bears for two years before the market finally bottomed in 2015.

The bottom is always much lower than you can imagine, which is why disbelief is so strong once the market starts rallying again. Bitcoin was growing exponentially back in 2013 too, and we still returned to the mean.

I don't know about $3000, but I wouldn't rule it out.

I beg to disagree. 2017 is not 2013. what more is 2018. Back then, there were only a few of us in this forum and people perception of bitcoin was nothing  but a scam.
People are getting aware. The greed of a few back then will not reflect this time.

There's no other way but up. Look at the trade stats. Where is is coming from, where are the volume? I feel sorry for those who want to buy at 1k, 2k, 3k, 4k but hesitated. This wont go back that low.

BETI analysis suggests this rally’s upper limit should fall somewhere between $12K USD and $40K USD prior to a pull back around $6-6.5K USD within the next 3 months.

I picked 3K because it was the last significant horizontal support - the crash likes to end at previous horizontal supports (after wiping out 90% of gains). The support at $5K was too short and not low enough. I really wanted to pick the $2K support but because of how much Bitcoin has changed and matured yada yada and mainly because of how slow the rally has been, I'm ultra-generously giving it 3K. Its going to be phenomenal when we end ONLY at 3K at preserve an entire 200% gain like never before. Theres a small chance of 5K too, I guess, since there WAS a support there. I'd say it's dropping to AT LEAST 5K, PROBABLY 3K, and possibly 2K.

I dont get any get any credit for my good calls. In 2014 I drew a chart with a 2 year retracement with a bottom around $300 before recovering at hitting ATH. Everyone thought it was super bearish and laughed me out. In 2015 after the breakout to $500 I said the market had reversed and the bear market was over but there will have to be 35% dip first  over several months before the next leg. Both bulls and bears were laughing at me.

But what about your charts lately? Didnt you predict another few bear years in Jan?
Also, lets assume it will blow off at 13k (probably a lot higher... but let's assume so). By saying 3k you are expecting a drop of 77%. This never happened in bitcoin... And if we get to 25-40k, it would be even higher! Everything is possible in crypto though, will be happy to come back to this topic and apologize if I am wrong, I am just questioning your data

I made a chart where it went flat at 1000->800 for a year before spiking to the moon. Not really that bearish.

Mark it on your forehead: Bitcoin will never, ever go down to $3'000! It is presently at $11'650 and just doesn't want to go down, in order that I can buy back.

What? A peak to $100,000 and a 70% fall to $30,000? Are you sure the support will not be on $40,000 this time? We have the traders from the CME who will prevent this kind of volatility.

I believe some of them will become bald because of the stress that comes with trading Bitcoin. Hahaha.

Maybe CME and their shorts will just slowly walk it up to $100K over years so there wont be a correction. This might be the end of BTC trading as we know it and its back to strictly altcoins.

I believe that the lower it can go for now is $8,000 and this may not even happen as the market has a great potential to go as high as $500,000 in three to five years to come. $3,000 will completely kills bitcoin as people will sell all their holding out of panic. I expected this bullish momentum to last through out next year and more positive event are coming up lately and many people all over the world are becoming aware of bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies

$3k is really a low amount to speculate for a dip, as there are no signs that market could fall to such an extent. Also, according to me this can happen only under one phase if every country boycotts Bitcoin and then making Bitcoin value to very low point like $3k.

It went from 1200 to under 200
It can go from 12000 to under 2000

And if it does, NO, bitcoin isn't dead..

Huge dip? Yes there will be one
3k? No, not without some really really bad news. Even if all the governments of the worlds ban bitcoin, it will still be traded.
A price more realistic with the current movements I would say around 7k is the lowest it will go and that is already a long shot in my opinion.

No signs like the entire price history of bitcoin doesn't show it happening over and over and over the same way since it's very first pump?

A normal scenario that we all going to enjoy just in case things like this will happen, I know that most of us here are also waiting for much lower value
to place a much bigger entry and just in case for the sake of arguments and it happen and bitcoin falls hard I still believe that many investors will grab
that opportunity and it will quickly bounce back.

Oh great! And I just love that. It is OP's point of view but it is funny that people still believe something like this can ever happen. Firstly, the reason he gave for the price to get that low is not even a reasonable one. The fact that people strongly believe that the price will never get that low, is what is making the market matured than it used to be and like you said, most people believe that any little drop now is a chance to quickly buy more, and with that, how can the value ever get to $3000?
 
If it happens even before then, I would have started buying at every $2000 level drop in value and I can imagine the number of people who are looking forward to moments like this. As far as I am concerned, $3000 is far from it, more like a dream that can never come true and for those who are comparing 2013 to this moment, maybe they really need to know more about MtGox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox

A dip of $3k won't break too many hearts. It is just going down to where we were a month back. What also matters is when this dip occurs. If the retrace is from $20k to $17k, I would care two hoots about it.
The debut of Bitcoin futures should be interesting. Let us see if short-sellers get involved.

You could be right, and i think that in the end this rally will end, there will be a bear market for a while before a new round of rallies probably in the years 2020-2021. But your figure of "at least $3k" seems unreasonable for me.

This is no 2013 here. The rally has been going on for way longer than the 1 month it lasted for in 2013, in fact it's been a year since the start of the rally.

This slow yet consistent buildup means that when the crash does come, it won't be as brutal. I doubt it'll go below $4k at all actually.

I think that the cancellation of the segWit2x is a mistake. We still have to do it. My opinion is that the high cost of small transactions and the existing rate of confirmation of transactions is a major drawback of bitcoin. It is impossible to use bitcoin as a Deposit to constantly. Need to develop trade with bitcoins. We do allow bankers to prepare for an attack on bitcoin.

Every other BETI > 0 spike has briefly dropped down to the level of the previous peak, so I wouldn't be surprised if we made it down to $1200 (for a few seconds). More interesting is how high we go before we go there =)

So low it'll feel like a 70's Bowie album ;)

Bitcoin cannot be predicted via pattern extrapolation because it follows no pattern for it's price movements but still, I think your call is possible to happen. One advice someone has gave me is to do the opposite of what everyone says because most of the time, they do the opposite. That being said, others also believe that the day when btc will dip hard to at least 3k$ is very likely to happen soon even when everyone says the opposite now.

You don't have any further arguments? I might have missed your original argument too then!
If you want to make a case for a 70% fall, feel free. There are plenty of reasons you could give, such as Bitfinex being dodgy, or Tether folding, or fees rising too high, or that it is massively overvalued now, or that a better replacement will come along and surpass Bitcoin.

But just saying, it'll fall 70% and that's all I got to say about that is pretty weak.

It will fall but not in that great percentage, Many still believes that btc can goes way high and have no plans of withdrawing it, but foe sure still many will released it but not to that point of up to 70%.

The OP's speculation could happen maybe if World War 3 broke out, or a massive hack on some of the known exchanges happen, or maybe if Internet is gone, or all the governments across all countries ban bitcoin. But because of the growing popularity and many big investors attracted by bitcoin, once it crashes, it will only bounce back and increase the price further because there are many of us who are waiting for a discounted price of bitcoin, ready to buy the fucking dip.

Not fully detailed in terms what you want to point out here or your opinion in the price movement of bitcoin to go down all the way as 3,000 $ well I doubt if you see the trend now that possibility of your speculation is low right now. Because bitcoin is a trend if you read about the opinions of Robert Kiyosaki regarding it then you will know what I mean.

I believe, but first we go much higher and by the 2020 halving we'll be in another bull cycle.

We were just at $1K-$3K a few months ago and the world wasn't ending - it was quite bullish actually. The $3K dip doesnt require the end of the world. It's just the natural end of the cycle - the counterpart of a parabolic rise - the filling in of the chart on the log chart, just like all times before. It does not require the failure of all exchanges - just lots of lag on one of them. Dont worry, its only temporary - a swift bounce to $5K+ will occur and many might not even notice that it went to $3K. It'll be like 'look at those bots that lost their coins last night in that massive hammer candle'

I don't know whats your basis on this kind of speculation on which no matter how hard do I try to see on the chart and do make some technical analysis I cant really see the thing that it would corrected its price and dip to $3k back which somehow impossible now a days.There are lots of supports I do see which it wont be easily be breakout or do have a continuous oversold but well no one really knows on what would happen on bitcoins price every second on the day which it do really have possibilities on moving its price that we don't really expect to.

How far back does the BETI data go? Is it based on historical Bitstamp data, or is there data that goes back further? I'm curious what sample size we're talking about. If that's really the case based on a decent sample, I'll be tempted to sells some coins to rebuy when the crash happens.

$20,000 to $1200 would be a 94% drop. From $50,000 it would be a 98% drop. We would definitely create a whole new generation of salty bagholders and "bitcoins are tulips" naysayers if that happened. I have my doubts, but you give me some hope that cheap coins aren't gone forever.


Only $5K? The bounce after the 2013 bubble pop went from $381 - $995. Nearly a 78% fib retracement. I would expect at least a tag of the 61.8% fib before we enter a downtrend.

I said the bounce to 5k will be swift, like the same day.  The rest will occur but might be a little slower.

True,the growth has been great,but still ,maybe there will be no great correction as many are accustomed,       especially when you see news as Coinbase expanding their support team considerably by 2018,news like this show that there is a lot of interest,maybe a lot more than before,so that a big correction might not happen for now.

The more absolute newbies there are the more inclined to panic they'll be. I'm sure a huge percentage of people who've arrived this year do not know one single thing about BTC other than it being a number that keeps on going up.

When it stops going up and starts to go down without pause expect an earth shaking stampede for the exits.

Yeah I hear the most ridiculous things lately from all the newbies like "the ceo of <altcoin>" and "a share of bitcoin". these people have no knowledge or interest in the technology, and only making money

Unfortunately, the technology will be slowly commandeered from here on out by big banks, regulators and the gov’t. You can’t get the perks of “the machine” without being a cog in it. BTC will be parasitized by the ruling elite eventually and employed for largely their gain while giving the commoners crumbs (as always).

It’s best to stay up on the trends, open a futures trading account, accumulate as many coins as you can afford and get ready to offload the bulk of your coins in the coming years for your country’s cash equivalency when we hit the high highs ($100K plus). Dump that back into futures and repeat. Once the ETFs are born, say goodbye to the huge price swings. By then, BTC will be just a imaginary thing (like all the gold in the Fed reserve...), however; the technology will be the king.

I am really even trying to picture how bad that stuff must be to really have that huge negative effect on bitcoin.
There are some values that the community should not expect and of course there is a lot going on right now with FUDs like this being generated by people like the OP to probably cause fear in the market.

This is outdated and will no longer work. The market is stronger than it used to, if the OP is basing his reason on the fact that we do not believe it ever will, and then his angle is out of it.

And how exactly did you come to the number of 3000$ dip? What paramters are showing this? Of course that the price can't just last forever and that corrections will happen eventualy but to spit out random number like this without any argument or explanation makes no sense, not to say it' s stupid. Exactly comments like this spread the panic among users and send the wrong message. I would be more careful with such predictions.

The question is how long will the bear market last. Will we have a long bear like 2014-2015? The 2020 bubble will be epic!

Okay ! Maybe you need to look back into the thread and see some people like OP who have come up with predictions like this on why bitcoin is going to get pretty messed up in the long run and it would still keep happening even when the value is $100,000.

When the value of bitcoin was around $3000, so many people thought it was a bubble and it would burst and it kept on going and they are still hoping for the same thing because they did not get in when the value was low and they so wish they can. I wish I can too, but there are just somethings that in as much as we want them to happen, they won't.

I never made a call at $3000.  In fact I had multiple people ask me prrsonally if they should sell and I told them not to .

The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin.  The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.

Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level.  The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower.  At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.

These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great.  They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time.  That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.

I’ve personally seen this over the last two bubbles. This forum is caked with old posts about it rising infinitely; technology investment is increasing, adoption rates have never been higher, etc. Even more so, I feel like I bang my head on the wall these days telling people this is what happens and if you remove your head from the BTC>fiat>gov’t cloud, most players can do a decent job of predicting this and positioning themselves on either side of the run up/run down quite well.

I've been thinking $3k for a while, but today I was feeling an uncanny deja-vu and so I started to have a more thorough look. I decided $3k was just a bit low - looked to me like there was a lot of price action in the $3.7-4k region. So I went from there (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.0).

I find it hilarious that 2 posts in and you were already being called a troll, simply for pointing out what seems fairly logical.

This time could be different sure, but I doubt it.

I'm adjusting the target to $5500. $3K will happen only if this turns into a 2011/2014 scenario and the hit would be several months down the road.

Seriously your argument sounds off a little bit. Sure, we cannot know what can happen any moment? And from the look of things, a whole lot of people are expecting that huge correction. However, you have to understand that the fact that the community strongly believes it won't get that low is because they are not ready to give it out that low. Keep wishing, no matter how huge the correction is going to get, it cannot be that low.

Doubt it. The fundamentals have changed dramatically. So I don't see a drop to 3k happening. Possibly 5.5k but even that seems like a stretch and I doubt it would last very long.

Pattern extrapolation? Are you taking as reference the gradual decline of bitcoin after the pump in December 2013? That has been one of the most banal "predictions" I've heard relatively often, as if the conditions of the bitcoin market were similar to those of the time.

It is true that nobody knows what the future will bring, but even if the price were to fall to $3,000 by the end of this year, it would still be a splendid year for bitcoin, with a growth of 200% over last year.

The current rally already ended. And it dipped to $13.5k. Unless that price breaks in the next few days, we've already found our bottom. And a new rally will likely be commencing in the coming weeks to push it up over $20k.

You cannot even compare 2013 to now. A lot has changed. The level of fear, uncertainty and doubt has so much reduced. Moreover, what happened in 2013 that did not already happen this year ?

How long did we see the huge dump before it got picked back up? That should tell you something. Whoever has missed the train should stop wishing for something that would not happen.

The 2013 bubble pop occured when mtgox started going down. At that point, all the traders decided that they needed to take profit while it was still physically possible for them to do so, and it reflected how many weak hands there were.

This bro lifts

Right - the peak is a level logarithmically above the mean, driven by traders, and the bottom is a level logarithmically BELOW the mean, again driven by traders, and the two levels are vastly different, especially since we are dealing with exponential price discovery.

People make a mistake when I say "I predict a dip to $x" that I think that's the real value of bitcoin or that the price is going to stay there for a significant amount of time - no its a hammer candle.

Fair enough.

many of guys are so pessimistic. I do not think that it will fall so very much, but 5,5 thousand seem to me something possible.

If we keep going up until 2020 I don't think we'll drop to 5,5k. That would be totally insane. If that happens I'll make sure to sell some RE though.

I'm so sorry for this horrible thread.

It was pretty much spot on :)

i am going to give you the same answer that i would have given you if i saw this topic back in 2017-12-04.

you can't predict bitcoin price with any kind of pattern extrapolation, analysis, .... there are lots of them out there at any time they all contradict each other. some come true and some don't. those that come true give a false sense of "correctness".

although that is just my opinion, based on what i have seen in the past few years with bitcoin and seeing how unpredictable it is. i would still love to see these extrapolations though.

Did you, by any chance, semi-necro this thread to show people that you were sort of right all along?

Not criticism, mind you. I've been appreciating your posts for quite a while already.

Im doing amateur necromancing,  I revived a 10 week old thread. I'm not quite raising the dead yet.

Hypocrite... ;) You are not sorry at all, you are gloating! ;D

I'd like to read your opinion on the final bottom, I believe it's not this one, but could take 1 - 2 more months.

It is a really great prediction when no one thought that the market would correct like that,but it was an exceptional prediction like any other i have seen,i would like to know how you came up with this conclusion,so that i could compare when i want to understand at a later stage,the price is recovering at this stage,but i am impressed with your prediction back in Dec.

Unpredictable. Not sure we can forsee what will happen at this point. Things are definitely fragile.

Bitcoin price movement proves to be truly unpredictable. For a few days, it is still possible to reach the price range of $3-5k. The uptrend that happened within 36 hours from $6k to $8.4k could be a bull trap from the new players who have entered the market. For long term, I still believe that when bitcoin has been fully developed and adopted by the people, it could still reach a price level of $500k.

This is a very strange way of thinking, to my mind. I do not think that Bitcoin will ever fall so low as it is supported by those ones who have invested a lot into it. The price can fluctuate for a long time, however.

3k has arrived.

Looks like an overall panic, but the market is primed for a big bounce here. I expect  multiple bounces off of 3k, and then a likely fall to attempt the support at $1800.

Really? There's a big chance that by tomorrow we'd hit 3k already. I think today we touched 3.1k so what makes you think that 3k can't be met. I doubt that there will be any reversals since people would put more attention towards the coming holidays.

Jesus christ dude knew it will end with 3k when it was last year. It has been over a year now and he is spot on correct. I know there are a million people out there doing all kinds of estimates and eventually one of the has to be true but being spot on correct after a whole year is just insane. Do you know how many silly and insane things had to happen to get us here ?

I mean this dude didn't put the calculations of what bitcoin cash war could bring us and how craig could sell thousands of bitcoin all at the same tim dropping the price in half an hour and so forth, he just assumed the price can't sustain up there and had to drop. No matter what will happen from now on I still congratulate him on this guess, it is by far one of the best ones I have ever seen in my 6 years of crypto world.

Only one thing really needed to happen and it did - a bubble. The behaviour was similar on the way up to the previous one, it stands to reason that the downside would look similar too. Obviously the timing and numbers were different but the sentiment not.

Still it was a good call despite the derision it attracted. Let's see if it's the definitive one.

Its too early to predict since the market still struggling to go atleast even higher from this past weeks prices but i will never stop trusting the cryptocurrencies

Yes we are sitting around $3k now,but dont forget that this market can grow in just a day or so ,better be awate of this and please stop trolling around dude