Bitcoin Forum

Simple question. Do you think bitcoin price will rise or fall first week after they start bitcoin futures (betting on btc)?

No one can tell anything about it?

Bitcoin price will go up this December no doubt because there are several great developments for bitcoin community.
Lots of hedge funds and the world's biggest exchange options such as CME and CBOE will launch bitcoin futures this December.

10 December  huge crash will make bitcoin price back to 10,000$

this news what i hope to be

No one can know for sure, but it looks like the price is going to go up. Bitcoin futures mean big money will start coming in, which will help legitimize and stabilize the currency. This will probably mean that we won't see wild, sudden increases like we have seen a few times so far, but I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing.

It is very difficult to predict because its price may fall or rice as it is uncertain. But it can be said that it will go for long.

Bitcoin will price up in the end of this year for sure. This event just make bitcoin become more legit and trusted. In the beginning of next year, bitcoi will be more stable and may be decrease the price but for this year, increasing is what bitcoin do !

It can go either way. In case it drops it can drop like 30-40% max but will recover quickly.

If we want to know exactly whats is going to happen after December 10 we have to wait and see.But I think the price will continue to rise upto $15K no matter about the date and it will face a price dump or correction but we can't say the bitcoin price will crash.

Bitcoin now is a big community and it can't be crushed. There might be some corrections, but after of course it will go up and up)

Once the financial companies get involved in bitcoin they will control the price as they do with shares,gold and fiat.

CME Group will start trading Bitcoin on 10th December 2017 and one week later on 18th December 2017 Bitcoin will start trading on WallStreet! It's no surprise that price surged so quickly right now just before the end of the year. For many investors that never had a chance to buy Bitcoin from various reason (failed to trust, know very little about it or simply didn't know how to do it) now will be able to buy. Once Bitcoin goes to the main stream stock markets price will rise even further. If Bitcoin crash it will be the only chance to buy cheap before rising even higher! All signs on sky shows that Bitcoin will be soon 15.000$

AFAIK the launch was postponed and is going to take place at the 18th. The first information about it launching in the second week of December was supposedly fake.
At least it is so according to this article on CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/cme-says-its-launching-bitcoin-futures-on-dec-18.html
The price should go up as people will have to first buy to be able to sell later. ;)

Andreas Antonopolous on the subject.

https://youtu.be/DHc81OL_hk4?t=9032

I think lots of people will be trying to short bitcoin using futures - but because that is a cash settled market, it shouldn't have an effect on the underlying asset. Unless some people have loaded up on bitcoins to sell on the bitcoin exchanges at the same time as they arrange the shorts.

It is really hard to tell.

On the one hand the CME futures are just a bet on direction with no delivery mechanism. So essentially disconnected from the freely traded price of Bitcoin.

On the other hand if I was someone like Jamie Dinasaur, here is what I would try and do:
1) Announce Bitcoin was a scam in preparation of buying up as much as I could.
2) Become involved in the CME futures when launched. Build up a large outrageous short position (with unlimited fiat available).
3) Simultaneously sell large numbers of Bitcoin on exchanges like Bitstamp and Bitfinex( that were accumulated from 5k up), while slamming on more shorts in the CME.
4) Make most of your money causing a panic via the CME futures and simultaneous sells of BTC.
5) Buy back cheap bitcoins on exchanges and cover shorts on the CME.
6) Have coordinated media denouncing Bitcoin. etc..
Wash rinse and repeat.

I hope they are not able to do this! But this may be a trick they will try. With the CME totally disconnected from the real price if they want to manipulate Bitcoin they will also need to use "some" real coins to paint the tape.

My only experience of futures are with precious metals.
It is generally considered to be a bad thing that people can trade paper Gold and Silver, as they can sell without buying.

At the moment people have to loan out Bitcoin to sell it, in the future that won't be the case. I expect a short term influx of money, but long term it probably won't be great for Bitcoin.

Yea, I agree , I do not see the CME futures trading a good thing. ( At least in its current form )

I agree with you.


Why are you all talking about that a new crash is coming? I dont see any crash coming, and if you are talking because you are comparing this to the previous crash of 2013, then you are out of mind.

That situation is not going to happen again, and the CME is not going to be able to manipulate the price because they are not going to put billions in there.

The only ones who are able to manipulate the price are the miners and the real big whales (who are holding more than one million of coins or so)

This is not correct, a big influx of money is not going to stabilize bitcoin in fact it is the opposite, if a few tens of billions of dollars entered the market of crypto that does not meant the value of bitcoin will grow that much in fact since the supply is limited it is likely the market cap of bitcoin will go up a hundred billion in market cap.

In December I thought it was up to $ 16k and fell down. I hope it returns to 9k $ .

That will remain to be seen after the first day of bitcoin futures as many predicts some more surge on the price of bitcoin. Some online news report that bitcoin futures will help stabilize the volatility of the bitcoin price, does it means that wild price swings will be a thing of the past? No one know what lies ahead for the bitcoin as it enter new chapter by means of bitcoin futures.

There will be endless delays with the SEC, etc. which drop the price.

indeed so far no one knows what will happen to bitcoin in the future but surely we all hope if bitcoin will still exist to help economy of its users to become better in terms of finance and for that of course in need of support from various parties so that bitcoin always grow and develop as valuable digital currencies.

There will be hedge funds betting for and against bitcoin.

Certainly the one from Novogratz will bet on a rising. And the ones lead by GS and JPMorgan will bet on a fall.

But we dont know for sure how this really works in its internals. Basically they use leverage in CME for their bettings, but when buying real bitcoin, they will buy in exchanges like Bitstamp and hence they can only do what a whale would do.

In gold, they keep the price down, because gold is held in custody by the State and the banks. They have a monopoly on it. Now for bitcoin, 90% of it is concentrated in the hands of the whales, which are 1% of users. So those funds will keep buying lots of bitcoins to increase the price first, so that they can tempt the whales to dump their stashes, and only then they will short what they have bought.

I was fearing a short right off the bat, because we never know if these funds were hoarding bitcoin, secretly and for a long time, turning them into whales themselves. But most probably is that they werent doing that, as their criticism points to a regret of not buying (as most coinhaters do, they always act emotionally). So maybe the price will go up until it reaches around 30k and then one or two whales try to dump to buy a truck full of lambos. Only then we will have a crash, going back to 10k levels.

Nothing will happen on December 10th. The price will continue to rise to the fork. And maybe before the New Year. I hope that there will not be a sharp drop in prices.

Why would they need to buy real bitcoin, when contracts will be settled in fiat?

Because if they want to short the market they can artificially inflate the price by buying shitloads of it and driving the price up.  Once the price is high they can short it, dump what they bought and then do it all over again.  There's some graphic floating around that says this.  Is it true? Who knows.  Does it seem like it could happen? Perhaps.

The US Futures Trading Association (FIA) has prepared an appeal to the Securities and Exchange Commission to postpone the launch of bitcoin futures trading.
The draft version of the document was at the disposal of the Financial Times. According to the publication, it should be sent today, December 7.
According to the FIA, the launch of bitcoin futures trading will not be accompanied by proper transparency   ??? ??? ???

I'm not so sure about that. Firstly, you have to consider time frames. Novogratz predicted last month (https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-end-year-10000-mike-novogratz/) that Bitcoin would end the year around $10,000. So for all I know, he expects a significant correction from this latest leg of the rally.

Also, JP Morgan seems to be pivoting quickly. They said a few days ago that Bitcoin could join Gold as a reliable, long-term way to store wealth (https://cointelegraph.com/news/jpmorgan-switches-tact-backs-bitcoin-as-new-gold), suggesting that it would become a traditional asset class. Jamie Dimon may not like it, but I don't think he wants Chase left in the dust by other banks. Goldman Sachs announced today (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bitcoin-futures/goldman-sachs-to-clear-bitcoin-futures-spokeswoman-idUSKBN1E1333?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews) that they are planning to clear bitcoin futures for clients as new contracts go live in the coming days. Bank of America just won a patent for a cryptocurrency exchange system (https://futurism.com/bank-america-wins-patent-crypto-exchange-system/).

The banks are waking up, and it seems like they want a piece of the action more than anything else.....

it's very difficult to speculating about this. when bitcoin futures starting in few days this will start a new bitcoins condition.
since bitcoin keeps rising, people keep following the trend to buy bitcoin, I do not expect bitcoin to crash, but also anxious that this trend will be parabolic.

I read many speculations about that here in forum mostly they say that bitcoin was continued moving up by month of December and I think that was true because bitcoin now rapidly going high not like few months ago. But it is still prediction of bitcoin that no one knows, because of being volatile of bitcoin the rice is not stable.

Futures trades are usually bots and this will make huge sell orders on the market.
Bots will not always buy without any indicator signals. So Yes i am waiting a huge correction on 10 december

Today is now december 8, and bitcoin price still rising. I bet until next year, the bitcoin price will still rise because of its popularity. No doubt that the bitcoin will cotinue to rise.

The futures will trade FIVE days per week. Whose genius idea was that? Get ready for wild price swings on the weekends!

I have to agree with the negative comments here on the page. These guys are vultures, the worst kind on gamblers. They can bet on ups or downs. If they can make profit off a fall they will facilitate that fall with all there might-news-media-radio-enet , you name it. These guys are dogs, nothing more. The more you dont understand the price rises and falls , the more you lose. You get out. Then they entice mom and dads who have no fu£$n clue what there doing into the game. And they continue the journey. We will bit£h online about corruption but to what end ??
Finding a way to burn these slashers would be a beautiful thing  .


It makes me f"ckn sick reading comments here about what goldman/jp morgan  ect are probably going to do like technical analysis of these hyenas is gonna work. Up until 09/12/2017 BTC was a true free market. Wall street is the antithesis of the free market. They are the corporations , some people mix this with capitalism. They are wrong.Corporate company are the death of free market trading.  They are a monopoly . You have no idea what there going to do     and if you try   this BTC gig if finished   and you with it .

Peace x

The fork should be considered as the main actor right not for the bitcoin. How a lot of forks come in a row. it's up to 5 forks coin will be blowing up to the public in a few weeks later. How people will try to buy the more bitcoin as much as they can. This day the price has fallen but it will be back again in the future. At the same time with the fork and many people will try to accumulate the free bucks from the bitcoin.
How it brings the more attention again to the bitcoin soon.

I prefer to consider bitcoin futures has nothing to do with bitcoin as they create a contract based on fiat currency, all the transactions using fiat currency instead of really invest in bitcoin. However, bitcoin price will increase over time, no matter what they say about it. But contract holders can do something about the price, right? If some people bet the price will rise to a certain point, they will buy bitcoin on some exchange to affect the Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). So, bitcoin price maybe increases even higher for the first phase of bitcoin futures, but it may drop back on the second round as the investors will sell their bitcoin to gain profit and simply bet on lower price.

They say it will rise this dec 10, but maybe will bump a little on hardfork because there is another coin coming that is super bitcoin. We all don't know what will be the exact amount will bitcoin be. But let's all get ready on hard fork on Dec 15.

The only thing I know is if the price drops to support level, lots of people will buy in. Lots of new buyers standing by to get in. Look at all those new accounts on coinbase. It's gonna be bumpy either way.

the price may drop if net neutrality goes through 5 days of tense if it will pass...

Bitcoin future in December 10 is compare to two days back mean high only it's reach $17k near by and today it's rate at now 13k and above and compare 2weeks back mean today rate was high only  in this month it increase only arround 20k near by because it's a digital currency and online transaction process so according to my opinion is both rise and fall only .

The world largest cryptocurrency saw a 9 % dropped yesterday over the 24hour span.  And just this morning, December 10, 2017, Sunday's session has so far seen that drop intensify, with the price down nearly 12%.  But as everybody knows that bitcoin has proven to all that it's able to overcome gravity.  Nothing to worry about it won't go for long I'm sure.  One day soon, bitcoin will go back and rise up again.

That 9% of which you speak is nothing compared to 33% of rise that this had during the previous 7 days,in that way even if it looks like a fall really is not,at least it did not keep being within those parameters,but definitely who knows what happens within the next few days.

 I can't really imagine what will happen at the beginning of the futures trade. This will be completely new, for everyone imo :) I assume there will be high volatility, but the price direction? Who knows...
Anyways, I'm a hodler type. 1 BTC's value is exactly 1 BTC. Now everyone is comparing it to USD, in a few years no one will do it :D (I hope)

I doubt that people will stop comparing BTC to fiat currencies, we are still far away from that point - USD, EURO and other strong fiat currencies will stay with us.
Mere fact that bitcoin reached the new limit and ATH is not gonna change the fact we have an only couple million of bitcoin users worldwide.
Compared to billions of people using USD every day is still too early to recognize bitcoin potential be the benchmark of value on its own - we will always need reference point.

Has it already started trading? Because I checked the CBOE website, and I got this:

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

It is showing an exchange rate of $16,250 per coin, when the average price in the Coinsmarketcap is $15,405.50 and the price according to the CoinDesk index is $15,280.53. It seems to be trading at a premium of around $1,000 per coin (6%).

So the early indications are good.

After reaching a new all time high of $17,428, the answer to your question is now rather obvious... there was a massive liquidation of shorts followed with an ATH, which has now consolidated as we are holding $17,000+ steady.

The next question is: How will we react in Dec 18th as CME launches their futures? Im looking forward for a similar outcome.

CME is a much larger player, and from there I do expect it to be much more active than what we have seen happening with CBOE. I honestly am not really impressed with how future trading goes with CBOE, where they seem rather conservative with their approach. I however find it funny that they have halted trading several times already due to Bitcoin's fluctuations, which for us are perfectly normal, but for them are insane. From now it's waiting what these future markets will do with Bitcoin's market in the mid to long term. I just hope that Bitcoin's market will not use these future markets as benchmark rate, because that would definitely be a bummer and even problematic over time.

completely agree, maybe thats why Alts have run wild the last 24 hours, as people want to avoid this regulated nonsense?

It would be nonsense for the market to follow futures which are based upon nothing but contracts delivered by institutions... the leading price will still be the actualy underlying asset's price. Anyone following futures in their trading of the underlying will get scammed by Wall Street's shenanigans. They will probably attempt a short and try to influence the rest of the market into following it, causing a cascade of panic selling, but if people don't go along with it and hold and buy the dip, their short will get liquidate and it will be something worth watching live as Wall St shorts get defeated. Can't wait for the 18th.

They are not going to be able to control bitcoin that easily, the tricks they use to control shares and fiat are not going to work and while they may try to create paper bitcoin in the same way they create paper gold to suppress the price of bitcoin I do not think that is going to work.

if the financial companies want to control the price, they must prepare big money to buy bitcoin but the truth, they cannot control it. we know that bitcoin cannot control by anyone and the price will follow with supply and demand in the market. and now, we see the price is going from yesterday and we have a few days more to see the price is rise again or fall deeper.

Bitcoin can not be controlled that is true, but other ways of manipulation exist such as a 51% attack. This threat is very real. Once an organization, or a couple of organizations join together and control 51% of the network, they are able to determine where the mining rewards go to.

This can be detrimental to the system as a lot of people have invested money in building mining rigs to mine btc, and such a 51% attack would mean that they lose their investment. Of course people can switch to mining other crypto coins so all is not lost. But for the btc system as a whole, the value would substantially decrease if a 51% attack happens.

Luckily some second-gen crypto coins are working on this 51% attack problematic.

Other ways big corporations can control the market is by releasing fake news to hype or drop the price. It is thought that the banks in China have done this , by releasing "btc banned in china" articles, they saw that this manipulated the price. Every time such an article would surface, the price would drop and they buy more btc.

The same happened with the CEO of JP Morgan. One day he says that btc is a fraud and he advises investing against it. As a reaction the price of btc drops significantly. You can guess three times who bought the most btc that day. If tyour guess was : JP Morgan, JP Morgan and JP Morgan, your guess was right!

The blockchain technology is here to stay and big institutions fear it. That's why they will do anything to control this section of the financial market, of which they have absolutely no control (ironical isn't it). We will see a lot more fake news articles and crypto bans in the following months.

Just stay vigilant on the information that's being spread and do your own proper research. That way you can ride on the manipulations the big corporations create for you rather than being the one who is on the losing end of these market manipulations.

It is obvious they are going to try to control bitcoin but the real question is if they are going to be able to do it and I think the short answer is no, they may exercise some influence but their control is going to be indirect at best since bitcoin has been very well designed to avoid that.