Bitcoin Forum

When will the next big Bitcoin price jump hit? State what you think and most importantly why.

My personal guess is in 3 years when the block reward gets halved again. I think we'll see another major jump in value. This will be due to supply and demand factors. Halving the block reward will make the currency even more scarce.
My guess is we will see it hit $300-$400 per coin at that time or shortly after.

What do you guys think?

3 years is far out.  What will a dollar buy in 3 years?  I'd say this has more to do with dollar value than block reward.

In order for that to be true annual inflation would have to be around 25%.
So no.

That's silly, cuz it's a relative term. You said it yourself, there isn't any natural equilibrium where the price should be.

Block reward has nothing to do with exchange rates. All the new coins mined today constitute only ~5% of the typical daily trade volume. In other words, ~95% of coins traded are old coins. Even if ALL the miners decide to hold or sell their coins, it would be irrelevant. 

1. The next big Bitcoin price jump:--->>> When I(we) move heaven and earth to locate funds for that SUPA Asic.

2. Why:---------------------------->>> What else is there to do.

So how do you interpret that? Other than mtgox becoming filthy rich?

You know what they say about correlation with a sample size of one?

Well we have been seeing daily trading of between 20-40K so newly minted coins are between 10-20% of the daily volume.  But even at 5%, that would mean that all the daily trading is being done with about 20 days worth mined of coins (and that's assuming coins don't double counted from fast trading).  Likewise the total depth of coins on Gox has been on the range of 1 month worth of mining (at the peak of the bubble it was 2 weeks).  No YES this is a very short term market that is controlled by the short term inflow of new coins.  That is why the miners profitability per GH took about a month to recover after the halving event.

 :D

Literally lol'd, so scientific sounding.

When the price hits $300 we will return to exponential growth.

Why? The human psyche is conditioned to take while the goings good, ( capitulation as many who have Invested will reconsider)  and at this point in time a new bread of early adopter will have satisfied themselves that Bitcoin will survive as a store of wealth.

Beautifully telling graph. Yes, you can't ignore that unless you're... well choosing to be blind

Block reward halving will absolutely cause an increase in value. I'm not saying other factors won't also increase it. But this is one for sure.

Interesting

Interestingly the two notable increase also coincide with an exponential increase in difficulty.

Block 210 000 was mined on 2012-11-28:

https://i.imgur.com/kQES0S5.png


There was no increase in value.  In fact, the rally started a month and a half later.

There was no increase in trade volume. The volume started spiking 2-3 months after reward halving.

Besides facts stated above, I shall also restate the fact that 30-day trading volume (easily verifiable, e.g. from bitcoincharts.com/markets) adds up to ~2 million coins. In the same period, 108 000 coins were mined - due to ASIC pressure and resulting serial increases in the difficulty, there was some time compression, let's say 115 000 coins. This is less than 6% of the coins traded in public exchanges. If you decide to ignore the fact of cross-currency arbitrage, and only look at the USD trades, we are still at ~10% of the overall trade. What miners get and what they do with it is insignificant in this market.

You are wasting everybody's time with baseless speculation and false data. The actual data clearly indicates that there was no any significant effect of block reward halving.

When price has been stable, it takes a while to wash out all the market makers who are maintaining the spread before you can break out.  Fundamental shifts rarely show up in the charts on the day they first take effect.

Is anyone else still hoping Mt. Gox get's replaced one day?
At any rate I think by this time next year we will have seen prices well over $300 and holding.

chodpaba I enjoy your posts a lot so thank you.

I believe niko was saying your graph is BS and the actual graph can be seen on bitcoincharts.com (conveniently posted below yours in his post.) is the source data for your graph publically available?
One question I had is: does your graph show data up until the day it was posted?

Your graph is an exaggeration of what I had expected, still quite amassing, how does it look in log scale?
And if you had to apply a similar smoothing to the hash rate on the same timeframe what would it look like if you fitted it to that graph?

On the design of Bitcoin, I often wonder how much was by intention, and how much is an elegant consequence.  While I hate to critique such a genius design, that huge increase in Dollar volume relative to mined coins, is want I would consider a barrier to adoption, and possibly an oversight in the design, your thoughts?

No, it's not insignificant. In the FOREX Market, the additionally printed US-Dollars are less than 6% of the traded volumes in public exchanges.
Therefore you would argue, that printing USD doesn't matter and is insignificant in the market. Such an argument is BS.

Cool another first on the internet a new definition for Bitcoin " risk distribution virus" I love it, this is going to push those EFT's and bifurcate exchange rates. I was trying to explain distributed socialized voluntary p2p managed wealth preservation and I think risk distribution virus does the job. Nice.

Just wondering if flow of money into altcoins has much effect on bitcoin price. Obviously no single alt currency will have a noticeable influence but there is quite a few already and counting.

"Printed" USD are immediately injected into the economy. You don't know what miners do with their coins. Blockchain analysis would reveal this - but we need to keep in mind that most mining is pooled mining, so a sufficient number of spends should be included in the tree to consider mined coins "spent" (as opposed to being kept in little miners' wallets).

If we have an indicator of the number of miners that will be great. I suppose that if the number of miners increased by 10x, then the price should rise by 10x. This is because each miner's bitcoin payout will reduce to 1/10 but their available risk capital still remain the same. Mining technology is unrelated, they will always get the best technology available

I think the price will already be over $10,000 by mid-2016. There may well be a jump due to the halving on top of that.

Because improved mining tech suddenly allows miners to buy hardware which has lower marginal electricity cost and thus is very profitable to operate, miners start to rapidly push up difficulty and being hyper-bulls by nature they wish to keep as many as possible.  Miners begin selling less coins into the exchanges which dries up supplies after about a month or two.  As supply dries up price rises and it becomes a self perpetuating cycle as miners hoard even more coins during the bubble run up, media hype brings in new buyers as well.  Eventually old coins are enticed to cash out and pop the bubble and or the supply of new buyers runs own.

2011 bubble was clearly driven by GPU adoption, this bubble seems to have been triggered by the block reward halving but their are certainly some ASIC technology elements at play as well.  It may be that the first movement from $15 to $30 was the response to reward changes and everything after that was the ASIC bubble.  It will be interesting to see what we get at the next reward halving, will price go through a gradual 2-3 month doubling (presumably staying stable after that) or will it be a wild double exponential bubble?  I'm leaning towards the former, that block halving alone don't set off wild bubbles, only mining hardware dose that.

P.S.  niko, the Gox trading volume has over the last few days become so anemic its practically equal the the entire daily coin creation, so again that production would be very significant if it were to reach the market.  My prediction is that we will not find the stable price point until the daily mining output is being consistently liquidated and we find out how much the BTC community is willing and able to spend buying that daily production.

you guys also should remember that during the first block rate halving  (I don't know if you guys were there), we never had one before and didn't know how to take it. We didn't "feel" the supply get cut, til months later when the demand picked up for one reason or another, because the market was still relatively immature at that point. By the time this next one comes, we'll be fully ready for it.

Next halving won't occur until 2017.

Did the last halving occur in Late 2012? Won't the next one be in 4 years, in 2016?

http://bitcoinclock.com/
It could be a little earlier because actual hashing is increasing faster than the estimated difficulty. But who can tell.

Quoted for posterity. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.msg2905478#msg2905478)

Sorry for the thread necro but I was thinking about how much I missed Chodpaba's carefully considered posts (most or all of which seem to be deleted) and I stumbled on this.

Seems Hfleer was right. Thanx for the quote for posterity Randrace.

I can't help but LOL at my thoughts, but this is the stuff religion is made from.

Chodpaba's second third coming will be a sign. I believe he will return otherwise he is omnipotent and walks among us  :D