Next Big Bitcoin Price Increase

[colinistheman]

When will the next big Bitcoin price jump hit? State what you think and most importantly why.

My personal guess is in 3 years when the block reward gets halved again. I think we'll see another major jump in value. This will be due to supply and demand factors. Halving the block reward will make the currency even more scarce.
My guess is we will see it hit $300-$400 per coin at that time or shortly after.

What do you guys think?

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[MrBea]

3 years is far out.  What will a dollar buy in 3 years?  I'd say this has more to do with dollar value than block reward.

[ElectricMucus]

3 years is far out.  What will a dollar buy in 3 years?  I'd say this has more to do with dollar value than block reward.

In order for that to be true annual inflation would have to be around 25%.
So no.

[ElectricMucus]

I think we will see levels much higher than that before the next halving. The ATH for this halving has yet to be priced in.

That's silly, cuz it's a relative term. You said it yourself, there isn't any natural equilibrium where the price should be.

[niko]

When will the next big Bitcoin price jump hit? State what you think and most importantly why.

My personal guess is in 3 years when the block reward gets halved again. I think we'll see another major jump in value. This will be due to supply and demand factors. Halving the block reward will make the currency even more scarce.
My guess is we will see it hit $300-$400 per coin at that time or shortly after.

What do you guys think?

Block reward has nothing to do with exchange rates. All the new coins mined today constitute only ~5% of the typical daily trade volume. In other words, ~95% of coins traded are old coins. Even if ALL the miners decide to hold or sell their coins, it would be irrelevant. 

[jarhed]

When will the next big Bitcoin price jump hit? State what you think and most importantly why.

My personal guess is in 3 years when the block reward gets halved again. I think we'll see another major jump in value. This will be due to supply and demand factors. Halving the block reward will make the currency even more scarce.
My guess is we will see it hit $300-$400 per coin at that time or shortly after.

What do you guys think?

1. The next big Bitcoin price jump:--->>> When I(we) move heaven and earth to locate funds for that SUPA Asic.

2. Why:---------------------------->>> What else is there to do.

[ElectricMucus]

So how do you interpret that? Other than mtgox becoming filthy rich?

[ElectricMucus]

So how do you interpret that? Other than mtgox becoming filthy rich?

It tells me that the halving does matter. And it matters more than our neurology is able to easily grasp.

You know what they say about correlation with a sample size of one?

[Impaler]

When will the next big Bitcoin price jump hit? State what you think and most importantly why.

My personal guess is in 3 years when the block reward gets halved again. I think we'll see another major jump in value. This will be due to supply and demand factors. Halving the block reward will make the currency even more scarce.
My guess is we will see it hit $300-$400 per coin at that time or shortly after.

What do you guys think?

Block reward has nothing to do with exchange rates. All the new coins mined today constitute only ~5% of the typical daily trade volume. In other words, ~95% of coins traded are old coins. Even if ALL the miners decide to hold or sell their coins, it would be irrelevant.  

Well we have been seeing daily trading of between 20-40K so newly minted coins are between 10-20% of the daily volume.  But even at 5%, that would mean that all the daily trading is being done with about 20 days worth mined of coins (and that's assuming coins don't double counted from fast trading).  Likewise the total depth of coins on Gox has been on the range of 1 month worth of mining (at the peak of the bubble it was 2 weeks).  No YES this is a very short term market that is controlled by the short term inflow of new coins.  That is why the miners profitability per GH took about a month to recover after the halving event.

[humanitee]

As can be evidenced by the level of butthurt on Bitcointalk.

 

Literally lol'd, so scientific sounding.

[Adrian-x]

Next Big Bitcoin Price Increase

When the price hits $300 we will return to exponential growth.

Why? The human psyche is conditioned to take while the goings good, ( capitulation as many who have Invested will reconsider)  and at this point in time a new bread of early adopter will have satisfied themselves that Bitcoin will survive as a store of wealth.

[colinistheman]

For your edification.

This shows total BTC minted versus total $Volume on Gox. The pink marker is where the halving occurred.

Beautifully telling graph. Yes, you can't ignore that unless you're... well choosing to be blind

Block reward halving will absolutely cause an increase in value. I'm not saying other factors won't also increase it. But this is one for sure.

[notme]

For your edification.

This shows total BTC minted versus total $Volume on Gox. The pink marker is where the halving occurred.

Interesting

[Adrian-x]

For your edification.

This shows total BTC minted versus total $Volume on Gox. The pink marker is where the halving occurred.

Interesting

Interestingly the two notable increase also coincide with an exponential increase in difficulty.

[niko]

For your edification.

This shows total BTC minted versus total $Volume on Gox. The pink marker is where the halving occurred.

Beautifully telling graph. Yes, you can't ignore that unless you're... well choosing to be blind

Block reward halving will absolutely cause an increase in value. I'm not saying other factors won't also increase it. But this is one for sure.

Block 210 000 was mined on 2012-11-28:




There was no increase in value.  In fact, the rally started a month and a half later.

There was no increase in trade volume. The volume started spiking 2-3 months after reward halving.

Besides facts stated above, I shall also restate the fact that 30-day trading volume (easily verifiable, e.g. from bitcoincharts.com/markets) adds up to ~2 million coins. In the same period, 108 000 coins were mined - due to ASIC pressure and resulting serial increases in the difficulty, there was some time compression, let's say 115 000 coins. This is less than 6% of the coins traded in public exchanges. If you decide to ignore the fact of cross-currency arbitrage, and only look at the USD trades, we are still at ~10% of the overall trade. What miners get and what they do with it is insignificant in this market.

You are wasting everybody's time with baseless speculation and false data. The actual data clearly indicates that there was no any significant effect of block reward halving.

[notme]

When price has been stable, it takes a while to wash out all the market makers who are maintaining the spread before you can break out.  Fundamental shifts rarely show up in the charts on the day they first take effect.

[Hfleer]

So how do you interpret that? Other than mtgox becoming filthy rich?

Is anyone else still hoping Mt. Gox get's replaced one day?
At any rate I think by this time next year we will have seen prices well over $300 and holding.

[Adrian-x]

How is the data false? My speculation is based on the fairly well understood economics of Price Elasticity of Supply. And some less well understood systems theory. But it is not exactly a radical notion that you can apply systems theory to markets.

All I am really saying is that Bitcoin is working the way it was designed to. This is not a fringe position. It is just that human beings refuse to believe their eyes when confronted with exponential growth, and even if they do, they don't understand what the full implications are.

chodpaba I enjoy your posts a lot so thank you.

I believe niko was saying your graph is BS and the actual graph can be seen on bitcoincharts.com (conveniently posted below yours in his post.) is the source data for your graph publically available?
One question I had is: does your graph show data up until the day it was posted?

Your graph is an exaggeration of what I had expected, still quite amassing, how does it look in log scale?
And if you had to apply a similar smoothing to the hash rate on the same timeframe what would it look like if you fitted it to that graph?

On the design of Bitcoin, I often wonder how much was by intention, and how much is an elegant consequence.  While I hate to critique such a genius design, that huge increase in Dollar volume relative to mined coins, is want I would consider a barrier to adoption, and possibly an oversight in the design, your thoughts?

[Zarathustra]

Besides facts stated above, I shall also restate the fact that 30-day trading volume (easily verifiable, e.g. from bitcoincharts.com/markets) adds up to ~2 million coins. In the same period, 108 000 coins were mined - due to ASIC pressure and resulting serial increases in the difficulty, there was some time compression, let's say 115 000 coins. This is less than 6% of the coins traded in public exchanges. If you decide to ignore the fact of cross-currency arbitrage, and only look at the USD trades, we are still at ~10% of the overall trade. What miners get and what they do with it is insignificant in this market.

No, it's not insignificant. In the FOREX Market, the additionally printed US-Dollars are less than 6% of the traded volumes in public exchanges.
Therefore you would argue, that printing USD doesn't matter and is insignificant in the market. Such an argument is BS.

[Adrian-x]

Cool another first on the internet a new definition for Bitcoin " risk distribution virus" I love it, this is going to push those EFT's and bifurcate exchange rates. I was trying to explain distributed socialized voluntary p2p managed wealth preservation and I think risk distribution virus does the job. Nice.