Bitcoin Forum

I think $1000 is the price a lot of people are anticipating. It's high enough that much of the 'old money' in this economy will start to rumble and awaken from their slumber. I'm not sure if the price could reach a sustainable $1000, as it is the sweet spot for a lot of people. Thoughts?

If it goes to $1000, it will hit $10,000 in a matter of hours. Maybe minutes

Obviously.

Wait, why would this happen? I thought people would be dumping.

One man's dump is another man's treasure... and the cycle repeats

That is a good point. To reach $1000, you would start to see the beginning of institutional investors, and then whales following other whales. Could get crazy fast.

Many are aware of this so sell right before $1000.
So by this logic, $1000 will never happen

If everyone cashes out, no one will be able to cash out.

Cycle? Seems like a pyramid when everyone try to sell at higher price than he bought at  :D

Not everyone. Many buys because they need specific goods to be bought via Bitcoins
And there are those who sell lower because they fear the price will go even lower

And graham's number within a few seconds.

And at $10k+ per BTC there might be no need to "cash out" since bitcoin will be liquid enough by that time.

$100 appears to be a strong psychological number that will trigger sells. anyone going to risk at that price? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156033.0)

You got it wrong. It should be:
If it goes to $1000, it will hit $100 in a matter of hours. $10 maybe minutes and zero within a few seconds.

But hey, that was you already !!!!! ;D

I don't know.  Some will sell at $1000 for sure.  I might sell some. ;)  I think that as more people start hearing about Bitcoin and they see how much value there is in them more will want them and there will be less to go around and therefore the price will be sustained, even at $1000.  Also, people are strange.  As the price goes up more people panic and want to buy because they are fearful they might lose out on the next big rise.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin markets still have a problem. And that problem is that a few hold so many coins.  It doesn't matter what small fish do, when whales start selling, everyone will follow because the small fish can not create enough buying pressure to stop it.  We've seen that with every crash.  Plus many small fish are weak hands and will follow whatever everyone else is doing anyway.

Bottom line, if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too.  And many wont get out in time, just like the $260 crash.  If whales start big buying, so will everyone else.  All the talk about new people and media attention, blah, blah, blah...is pointless.  If they are not new whales entering the market, it won't do anything to change the trend created by the whales. 

The whales will have to be mega whales, Goldman Sachs and the like

we aren't even solid in the 100+ range (since bitstamp is below it) and you are already talking about the next order of magnitude? wise dumpers dump before that, so, no, that won't happen. it will be much longer until we reach 1000 than you think. much longer …

Really we should be thankful any time that whales are selling out, because it means they are distributing their "hoard" of Bitcoins to many other people.

That's a fair point and could lead to a situation in the future where a few can't just move the markets at will.  The masses could then create buying pressure to prevent huge price drops due to whale dumps.

People were saying the same thing about $100.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156033.0

lol, I didn't even realize I said the same thing about $100. Just shows how fast things can change.

Cash out = Get rid of all this useless fiat to get more bitcoins?
If so, I don't get your point.
If not, you probably won't ever need to buy toilet paper anymore.

I doubt so, if it reaches $1000, there will definitely be those who will be targeting $10 000 next, when someone cashes out, others get in.

Suppose that I bought 100 bitcoins when price was $5, when bitcoin exchange rate reached $50, I might consider sell them all to receive $5000, which is a quite good return. But if it rised to $500, then 100 coins worth $50,000, I will definitely keep part of those coins and to see if it can rise even more. The higher the price, the higher confidence people will have in bitcoin, less motivation to exchange to fiat, which is losing its value constantly

And beyond a certain acceptance level, there will be only fiat money inflow, no outflow, since bitcoin will be used to direct purchase other things when there is such a need

Remember that we tend to overestimate progress in the short term...and vastly underestimate it in the long term.

The interesting thing about the last price mania and run up from $10 to $266 within a few months is why $266 was the magic number this time.  It could be that the number of suckers left to pile money in ran out, or maybe enough people thought 'this price has been rising exponentially for weeks, it violates common sense for it to continue, sell!' 

If bitcoin enjoys another strong run up towards $1k and maybe beyond we will again experience the same situation.  The key factor is, as always, that simply sitting on your bitcoin stash while doing absolutely nothing is the path to riches.  That doesn't seem sustainable.

999 here

I'm never cashing out. To me bitcoin is more than just making money off panic buys and sells, its about financing a revolution.

If you never cash out, you will never realize a return. Your heirs may be thankful, though.

I may be selling some Bitcoins when the next order of magnitude is there, but definitely not all and definitely not a majority (especially because I believe in the fundamentals and look forward to actually using the Bitcoins rather than selling them for fiat) - and I think lots of other people agree here, so I don't see a problem going beyond 1,000 USD (or any other mark).

Whales buys their bitcoins back at lower prices, so no new bitcoins is distributed to many people

I think he meant that he would like to spend his bitcoins instead of exchanging them for fiat. Not just hold them indefinitely.

I know that if bitcoin reached $1000 I would just be holding on for the ride. Why cash out when the revolution is near? I might take a small bit though, just because.

998.99

.

995.1337  :D

Why do you want to cash out to fiat money instead of directly spend them? If you don't want to spend them why exchange to fiat currency which lose its value over time (can be printed out of nothing)?

If you are anticipating that the price will fall after reach $1000, then it is another topic. This spring, some one forecasted that 20,30,50,70,100,200 to be the top of bitcoin exchange price and they failed most of the time, no one can call the top

Because I can't use it on amazon or to pay to people who are selling their flat.

Be patient, it's not going to happen in one day, but here are some high-end offer: http://www.bitpremier.com/

But bitcoin can not be used as a currency because of very low transaction/sec limit

Exactly. Until the network architecture can increase the number of transactions per second, it won't be economical to use Bitcoin for small purchases when the price goes past roughly $500/coin.

994 then

Not true. I plan to hold my BTC until the price tops out (over a million) and then simply spend them. Why would I need cash when everyone accepts bitcoin?

The Foundation have stated they'll be adjusting the protocol to be more microtransaction-friendly as the value rises.

I think it's quite funny to see how people think $1000 is a high price for a bitcoin.

Think about the size of the world economy -- tens of trillions of USD, at least -- and the current size of the Bitcoin market -- just over 1 billion. Going to ten billion is a drop in the bucket. Hundred billion isn't a stretch either. Considering Bitcoin's lack of need for trust in human beings, a trillion wouldn't surprise me at all. That's $100,000 per bitcoin. China and Russia know that their currencies are weak, because they don't have the connections the Euro CB or Federal Reserve have. When they decide to dump all their nearly worthless, depreciated USD and invest in BTC for their reserve currencies, the market going to ten trillion is not unreasonable at all. And then you have $1,000,000 per Bitcoin.

Too much higher than that and you run up against the size of the entire world economy.

Also, it's likely that other cryptocurrencies will comprise a solid chunk of the economy, too. A million per coin sounds like a more likely ceiling than a thousand. I actually think it will slowly rise to a few million once it hits a million (in 2018 I predict).

If they're lucky, they do.  But no one can call the market perfectly.  Even with attempted manipulation, those whales can very well lose a good chunk of their coin.

That might be true today, but you can guarantee that the more BTC is worth, the more VC's and the like will be pouring money into Bitcoin-related ventures to solve exactly these types of problems.

A bunch of people were dreaming about how fantastic it would be if each BTC was worth $100.

But you know what takes over when you are near your price? Greeeeed. :D

If it goes to $1000, $2000 is only one doubling away...

This is a sad but true issue with bitcoin - do people want to get into it because it's the goose that lays dollars or because they want to support a fantastic movement towards decentralized regulated economies.  I'm afraid a lot of people are in it for the dollars and they are hoarding until the value is so high that they can cash out...  I really hope that more people realize that this is and will continue to be an uphill battle and now matter where battles are fought, they require people and "money" to succeed.  Bitcoin, at this point, could be bought out by a single person...  sad but true, this is a very fragile economy!  I'm guessing if we ever want to see coins at $1000 we (as a community) need to realize the greater good - mine for the sake of keeping the network strong (helping to prevent the obvious 51% attack), contribute to forums, talk about it with people who don't know anything about it and get developers interested in creating sites, apps and hardware that support bitcoin...  I'm super excited about bitcoin and really hope that it continues to grow; I'd LOVE to see $1000 considering I've been mining for some time and bought quite a few coins at $5/per... but more than seeing significant growth in fiat, I'd rather see significant growth in the COMMUNITY!

i can attest to that. all the way up to $100/btc i was screaming overbought...then when we went over $200 "we're never gonna stop no one's selling anymore buy buy buy" hahahaha

lessons learned  :-[

You will have off-chain service for daily small transactions, and even better you can mortgage your coins and get fiat loan to spend. This day will not be too far away once bitcoin can be traded on large forex exchanges, then some investment bank will package bitcoins and make various financial products, just like they did with housing, no one can stop it from happening

You mean a 'return' of $? Maybe you don't want your $ returned. Good riddance.

crypto market fork  ;D

what so stupid about a bolder bath ???


 :D

Only if hashrate grows about +10% per retarget next 15 years. How likely is that?
Otherwise it will be cheaper to mine it with today units

Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.

That would be awesome 1 Bitcoin will be able to buy you a nice average car, can't wait for those days.

Thank you for explaining. I need to be more optimistic but my gut feeling telling me 1m$ can newer happen (unless the inflation will be so high it is normal monthly wage).

Would be my educated guess, too. Bitcoin has grown about four orders of magnitude in the past three years or so, which of course isn't to say it will continue the exact same growth trend. But within the next few years I foresee the exchange rate per BTC as being likely upward of $10k at least, even in 2008-adjusted dollars, or zero, but not much in between. We shall see. :)

The transactions-per-block scalability problem is still a biggie. The very smart devs must have spent a whole lot of time figuring out the best method of dealing with it though. Have faith in them; watch a Mike Hearn video or three to feel good about the prospects of the Bitcoin project!

I'm not sure you can buy nice average car for $1000

Oops, my mistake. I was thinking about if Bitcoin reached 10,000 USD. Hey, I guess you can buy a car for 1,000 USD.  :P

People should stop dreaming about 10,000 $ / BTC anytime soon. 1,000 $ is possible in 2014 during a bubble spike,
but after that the spikes will grow slower, something like 2,000 in 2015, 3,000 in 2016, and 4,000 in 2017.

And if you buy a car for 1,000 $, that's probably going to be a death trap, so don't.

why would the spikes grow slower?
growth should be exponential, no?

which would mean the bubble will get closer and closer together,  pretty soon a bubble pop will be immediately followed by another bubble! ;D
  

I guess that's what the fun of Bitcoin is, you never truly know what price they will be at.

They will grow slower because of limited resources, in our case speculators' money. IMO there won't be enough money to get above 4,000 $ in 2017.

I paid $1000 for a 1992 Mitsubishi Magna with 300,000 Km on the clock 2 years ago.

The ECU shorted out after a further 5000 Km but got a second hand one for $150.
I have driven another 20,000Km without issue.

Cars... Absolute money pits.  Stay cheap folks....

On topic:

My kids have a target of $1000 per BTC and they want to sell half their stash at the price.

They don't need to cash out, but instead use coins to purchase whatever. At $1000 means shit tons of merchants.

I have to agree here, as much as I like Bitcoin. I would still prefer to have my Bitcoin changed into cash. It's easier for day to day use.

If you live down by the cave, yes. But big cities like nyc, sf, portland, multiply the current number merchants by 10, living by btc should be quite convenient. I don't see walmart and mcdonald take btc at 1000 though, but at 10 grands, they might.

When I can top up  a pre-paid VISA/Mastercard with Bitcoin very quickly and easily Bitcoins will become more valuable.

The process would be go online and one time buy for $10 a pre-paid card, then go to account online to convert BTC into the card balance needed. This would mean no need to go exchanges and whenever I need real world money I can create it from my Bitcoins. (No service like this exists in Australia)

If such a service exists so people know they can spend Bitcoins day to day just by doing 1 online action (and also allow them to withdraw money from a ATM with the card) Bitcoin will easily be able to merit prices beyond $1,000. Note that this does not require any merchants to know or care about Bitcoin, just allowing us to move money into day to day spending at whenever we want will increase the value tremendously.

Imagine telling a friend about bitcoins and how they can be used all over the internet without ever having to worry about your details being stolen, and then tell them that you can top up your card whenever you want to buy a coffee or pay rent. Very valuable.

At this point the only reason to cash out would be to day trade the bubbles and such, but no longer any real reason to actually cash to fiat, this also increases Bitcoins value and stabilizes it because this rush to cash into fiat is removed.

Now the future a lot of you are talking about, Bitpay similar services acting as point of sale and even bitcoin payment systems using the blockchain in many stores, this future will happen perhaps, but it's further away and means most people know what Bitcoin is. Once we get to this point where Bitcoin is as common as the words paypal, bank and VISA/MasterCard we will be so far north of $10,000 that $1,000 will be remembered as the cheap old days.

What I am trying to say is even something like easily topped up VISA cards will allow Bitcoin to sustain $1,000+ prices very easily. Its also in VISA's best interest to do so, they can make a small fee on each top up and if they start buying Bitcoin as a investment now the payoff will cement them as a finance leader for decades to come. And in the process destroy MasterCard. (Or vice versa, whichever one does it first wins it all)

When 1/5 stores actually accepts some kind of Bitcoin payment, those days are the $10,000 days.

I agree with you that this would surely boost Bitcoin's usefulness a lot, but personally I wouldn't use such a service.  I don't use credit cards (or ATM cards which are more common in Austria) myself and value my privacy paying with cash.  After all, it's none of VISA's (or my bank's) business to know when, where and what I buy for my living, and it's also none of my grocery store's business to know what else I bought when with them by matching my payments together automatically.

I will start using Bitcoins for those purchases when I can pay with a mobile wallet app directly to an address, or when off-chain providers exist that allow me to pay with anonymous accounts where I can easily create new ones from time to time to break the chain of all my transactions.

I agree with this, if anything the btc environment is speeding up, on slowing down, exponentially

+1

Unless they buy back even more Bitcoins at a lower price.

Its possible but not anytime soon

if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too.  And many wont get out in time

eh when btc goes to 10K the pressure for retailers  to accept will be immense.

I am sure they will find a way to get a bit of that 100 billion cash capital, I mean think about that just the market cap, not the velocity of the money which can easily be 10-20 x that in a year.

1T of goods and services up for grabs.... a year!

Yup.  You never really know.  If BTC price is exploding up at the time it reaches 1,000 it could blow right by as easily as it did 50 or 60.

Hi vokain,

It's hard indeed. I also got overtaken by greed. Though I have succeeded in selling a lot, according to my plan I should have sold a lot more around $200-$250.

I admire your ability to be honest with yourself and I'm confident you've learned a valuable lesson thanks to that :)

Good luck in your future trading :)

Yes,  I think It would be really smart for VISA to do that, especially if they allowed people to upload Bitcoin which they then converted immediately available fiat on the card.  If the card was lost or never used, VISA would keep that cash and never pay it out! Or VISA could charge a small service fee on the cash left on the card and slowly drain unused cards.  They could make millions.  I wonder why they have not pursued this yet?

Most of the largest holders will cash out it at price $200, then the price will fall.

For someone buy 20000 at latest.

Several people have been quoting prices and it would appear some have been doing a good job of validating their claims whilst others havent done such a great job, Personally i dont have a clue where the price will go, but this is probably the best article i have read which has a realistic prediction, in my opinion that is. (This article dates back to March 2013)

http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/


The article speaks sense but as always the time scales are a factor, so please dont shoot the messenger if you disagree with the article ;-) I only linked to it i didnt write it.

All the best

 ::)

That will only happen if "everyone" sells out at $1000.  The institutional traders who take the coins off their hands will be strong hands.

Have you actually bought something with bitcoins?

For me bitcoin wins in the usability aspect by a large margin.

I hate to use online banking, and I hate use my cards.
Online banking is an obsolete technology causing headaches every single time (Running a business I use 6 different banks).
As for the cards, 2 of my cards have been copied at some merchants in Germany and in the netherlands causing me 1500eur temporary loss and a lot of frustration.

As for paypal, they held my money without reason and willingness to resolve the issue. After 6 months, they have released it. Thinking of how much money they can use for 6 months for free is mind boggling.

Bitcoin is the perfect payment system for purchasing anything, for both the seller and customer in my opinion.

+1

Let's see here.... use a credit card where you have to give the merchant enough information to charge you up to your credit limit and/or steal your identity..... Or use bitcoin, where you authorize exactly the amount you want to send and the merchant can not do anything to cause you harm (unless you also voluntarily give up your address, but bitcoin gives you that choice).

Using a credit card doesn't give someone enough information to steal your identity. I agree with the sentiment, but that is ridiculous. And there are fairly strong incentives for merchants not to openly fuck customers.

If all merchants didn't go through Bitpay, I'd feel a lot better. But Bitpay is incompetent and their system is shite / dealing with them is a nightmare. I am unwilling to deal with them for any significant sum of money. Now if only I could get someone to take bitcoin for something I need...

Name and billing address give them a good start.  With that and a little bit of social engineering you can get a lot out of customer support people.

Yes, merchants have incentives to not fuck customers, but frequently their employees do not.  Your information is usually fairly accessible to low level employees.

Not all merchants go through bitpay.  There is also a lot of decentralized trading (for example on these forums) that would just not be possible with credit cards.

What are you looking to buy?  I've had a lot of success buying things I need with bitcoin.

Maybe in less than 5 seconds.
I think that I will sell all my btc before 1000usd, like 800 or 900. So, a lot of people might do the same and the price of 1000 will not be a huge resistance.

You could have said the same thing about 10 or 100.

"If it goes to $10, it will hit $100 in a matter of hours, maybe minutes." Price hit 10, then soon thereafter shot up to 32 and slowly crashed back down to 2.

"If it goes to $100, it will hit $1000 in a matter of hours, maybe minutes." Price hit 100, then rose to 260 before losing steam and crashing back to 50.

Since we are all just speculating nonesense, why not speculate happy-we-all-get-rich nonsense?

Which I also thinks, and I guess many thinks, and therefore everyone will buy in at 990 so they are not left behind, which is also not difficult to guess, which is why everyone will buy in at 980...

For me too. Someone once said it's as easy as copy+paste. An oversimplification, sure, but not too far off!

If it goes to $1000 it most surely will not stop there.

Soon after we broke dollar parity people were talking about $10 as being inconceivable ... and then it went to $32 peak.

... then talk of $100 seemed inconceivable ... and it went to $266 peak.

On that logarithmic pattern any talk of $1000 will be conservatively wrong by about a factor of 2-3 ... i.e. $2500-$3500 is likely the range of the next peak (if we ever get another one).

Yes, but only if the number of people using Bitcoin will increase during the peak which should not be hard

I think such a cash out strategy is more likely to happen in real life:

I spend $10000 and bought 100 coin at $100

If the exchange rate reaches $1000, I would sell 10 coins to ensure my ROI, and sell another 20 coins for some spending, and still hold 70 coins. Since I have already ROI, I don't have any risk, even the rest of the coins' value drop to zero

Same, if the exchange rate reaches $10,000, I would only need to sell 1 coin to ensure my ROI, and sell another 2 coins for some spending, I would hold 97 coins without any risk

So, the higher the exchange rate is, the lower the sell presure will be

I don't know, all of this counting in 10's and 100's as a measure of magnitude. Anyone would think it was all just a throwback to counting on your fingers... wait, are we saying that base 10 numbering is an arbitrary consequence of evolution's designation of the number of grasping tarsals attached to our paws? Never!

The thing is, in order for bitcoin to reach values of $1000 (*), it will have to continue to grow beyond just a speculative investment.  At that point, when it grows past the magic number then it will start to become useful enough in its own right that the pressure to "cash out" will be diminished.  (If you can envision a future when you can buy all the stuff you need in bitcoins, then there is no need to "cash out" to fiat.)

The whole "everyone will cash out at $x" assumes that it has not achieved enough mainstream usefulness at that point.


(*) Maybe $1000 isn't the pivot point; maybe its higher.  There is no magic formula.  The point is that as it gains adoption, visibility and further usefulness, it will gain in value, the infrastructure becomes that much stronger, and the pressure to cash out diminishes.   If I wanted to cash out and buy something with the cash, it would be far easier to just spend the bitcoin directly (where possible).

I have seen several people here making a distinction between cashing out for fiat and using their bitcoins to purchase stuff. How are the two different? Either way you are giving up your bitcoins for something else you value.

you don't pay capital gain tax if you spend

Also, spending coins will not (directly) drive the trading price .  Effectively they are staying in the bitcoin economy instead of being exchanged for fiat.

Speculative demand is also a demand, and maybe the ultimate demand for rich people ;)

Even in europe, you still need to exchange Euro to some local currency if you are in some countries like danmark/norway/sweden. I guess that bitcoin will not be able to purchase a lot of things at a lot of places in the foreseeable future, but exchanges and those payment services like bitpay would grow first to make it perfectly usable

And soon government will realize that if people pay with bitcoin, there is no way they can check the validity of income tax. In fact, this will impact the whole accounting and invoice system. Maybe they will request all the merchants to report their transaction id to tax authority, but that is much more difficult to audit than bank accounts. And, since the bitcoin price changes quickly, the tax payment actually involves an exchange risk

But they may be exchanged for fiat by the seller.

Im not sure because part of the coins you sell will want the buyer sell as well to get his own ROI

I don't get what you mean ???

Anyway, before price reach 10K, it will first reach 1K, so it is possible that everyone have reached their ROI and sold part of their coins already. If they are not enough patient, they might already sold 50% of coins when they see a double of the exchange rate. But I suppose that those short term speculators have a much higher risk, short term wise the bitcoin's value can be very volatile, better to do long term investment

No, only the people who bought in early will have gotten their money back at 1000, all the people they sold to will try to sell out at 10000.

I think many early investors will be smart enough to always hold a few just in case the price skyrockets to crazy amounts.  I know that I will sell some of our small stash as it rises, especially if it gets to $1000,  but I plan on holding several for the long haul.

Also, it may get to the point where we never really need to sell them if they become more widely used.  That will be the best case scenario really.

999 ftw

TC

Exactly, but that speed is not sustainable in a very short time. It is much easier to be sustainable long term wise because of continuous shrink of coin supply and increase in population/productivity

If exchange rate rise 10% per year and you sell 10% of your coins, means your remaining coins will have same amount of purchasing power each year after you sold coins. This is very sustainable because the total coin supply will still shrink due to reward halving every 4 years, just a little bit increase in user/productivity will ensure its long term sustainability. This applies to any price any time

However, if exchange rate rise 100% per year and you sell 50% of your holdings, the number of coins supplied on market will get more and more each year, and increase the sell pressure significantly. Of course the speed of increase will be lower and lower since eventually the new coin supply will stop

And, if exchange rate rise 100% per year but you sell only 10% of your holdings, the number of coins supplied on market will still keep shrinking thus make it more and more difficult to get coins, so that 100% price appreciation might be able to hold due to low sell pressure

http://photo.mystisland.org/coin_supply0.jpg

Just wanted to say that when you sell a part of your coins for the same fiat amount that you bought it, your remaining coins are not risk free. The have a value, and you can still loose that value.

It is an irrational rule of thumb, just like the invest only what you can loose shit, and the go safe when you are old feces.

+1!!!  :)

Oh .... silly me, I  thought it was all about belief in a new currency, not 'cashing out' for 'dirty fiat' profits. Must have red the label wrong

Don't know who you are talking to or whether the sarcasm tag was missing, but yes, "cash out" (ref title ) is not precise enough when we talk about different moneys, "dollar out" is more specific, or rather, "I moved my assets into USD, it feels safe now".

sarcasm:
I transformed my bitcoins to a dollar denominated credit in a big bank, now i feel really safe.