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Title: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: silvergoldandbitcoin on August 13, 2013, 08:44:42 AM Estimates anyone?
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: solex on August 13, 2013, 08:51:13 AM 93,675,302
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: ravix5 on August 13, 2013, 04:57:25 PM If difficylty raise 20 -35%
93045167 < diff < 124200306 for an example, difficulty = 104043503 13-10-2013 Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: ridnovir on August 13, 2013, 05:19:27 PM currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month
that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: ravix5 on August 13, 2013, 05:30:32 PM why? 50 /37 = 1.35 sa dif change IS 35% NOT 40 and Jupiter is profitable
http://minercharts.com/?curr=0.10&prod=400000&cons=1000&investment=7200¤cy=USD&investstart=2013-10-16&datefrom=2013-02-13&dateto=2014-02-10&diff_perc=35&bc_perc= Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: crazyates on August 13, 2013, 05:51:55 PM currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month We're not going to jump 40% every single diff recalc. August was supposted to be a big month for ASIC delivery, and I think the next 2-3 months will see sharp increases, and then it will somewhat level off. that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: ridnovir on August 13, 2013, 06:13:23 PM currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. here is a better calculator http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ even if you assume difficulty will increase %35 per 10 days and round it off to %100 per month the outlook is bleak Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: FeedbackLoop on August 13, 2013, 09:25:08 PM 125,000,000
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: bitcoinator on August 13, 2013, 09:27:54 PM 132,000,000
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: af_newbie on August 14, 2013, 05:18:46 AM 100 Aug
150 Sept 15 225 Sept 30 337.5 Oct 15 So look at 300M+ Avalon, BFLs, bitfury chips are coming Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: jspielberg on August 14, 2013, 12:14:16 PM My latest exponential projections put around ~85M for 30 days and ~150M for 60 days. Though those I bet will be low estimates.
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on August 14, 2013, 01:13:02 PM If some of the bigger rigs come online as projected, I believe it's likely you'll see number similar to this for a worse case scenario:
78 End of August 212 End of September 613 Last week of October Less than worse case scenario: 78 End of August 162 End of September 241 Last week of October Network speed has risen dramatically over the past few months, but we're just beginning to enter the "actual" rise. Growth will be exponential for a short time period, I'd wager you'll see the Network speed line shooting "almost straight up" for a short while sometime in the near future. Some math whizz's have said they expect network speed to double or quadruple in the next 120 days. Not sure if I can bite into that, but it's certainly plausible. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: goxed on August 15, 2013, 08:21:58 AM My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth.
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: Takeshi_Kovacs on August 17, 2013, 07:41:31 PM currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI. here is a better calculator http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ even if you assume difficulty will increase %35 per 10 days and round it off to %100 per month the outlook is bleak Why would you round that off to 100%? A rate increase of 35% every 10 days is a rate increase of 146% over a 30 day period. That would take a 50M difficulty up to 123M in one month and then on to over 300M in 60 days. (You need to multiply percentage increases not add them.) If the network hash rate increases at the same rate as in the last cycle, that is where we will be in 60 days - a difficulty of 300M. That begs an important question. Will hash rates keep rising at 35% per cycle? What can we see from the network today? We are currently one third of the way through the current cycle and allchains.info estimates a 17.7% increase for the next cycle. Of course, that is not a real estimate. It really means that, over the last 3 days, the net has added enough hashing power to require a 17.7% increase in difficulty. The are seven more days to go before the next recalculation and there will surely be more hash power by then. If the trend over the last three days continues then the next difficulty jump would be greater than the last one. Of course random variance has a role to play in this and things may not be as bad as that - but equally, they may be worse. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: rolling on August 19, 2013, 02:49:40 AM 222,716,830 on October 13th.
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: smoothie on August 25, 2013, 07:18:31 AM Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on September 04, 2013, 04:55:20 PM My less-than-worst case scenario looks like it's close as of today.
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: thy on September 05, 2013, 03:17:38 PM 4-5 PH/s at least i guess so it should mean 550-660 million or so.
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on October 25, 2013, 01:24:29 PM I figured it's time to review how we all did lol
Estimates anyone? 60 days would've been 12-Oct. The last jump put us at 267,731,249 on 16-Oct, previous to that 189,281,249 on 6-Oct, a difference of 78,450,000 (source: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty). For simplicity's sake the linear daily difference is 7,845,000. 6 days @ 7,845,000 = 47,070,000. Add that to 6-Oct difficulty and we arrive at the 60 day rough difficulty projection of.... 236,351,249 With that, here's the top 3 predictions: vesperwillow - 241M (98% accuracey) rolling - 222,716,830 (96.2% accuracy) goxed - 200M. (84% accuracey) I think these 3 did really well. It's almost as if I knew something lol. Sources: If some of the bigger rigs come online as projected, I believe it's likely you'll see number similar to this for a worse case scenario: 78 End of August 212 End of September 613 Last week of October Less than worse case scenario: 78 End of August 162 End of September 241 Last week of October Network speed has risen dramatically over the past few months, but we're just beginning to enter the "actual" rise. Growth will be exponential for a short time period, I'd wager you'll see the Network speed line shooting "almost straight up" for a short while sometime in the near future. Some math whizz's have said they expect network speed to double or quadruple in the next 120 days. Not sure if I can bite into that, but it's certainly plausible. My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth. 222,716,830 on October 13th. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: petersiddle98 on October 25, 2013, 02:09:45 PM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :)
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on October 25, 2013, 02:18:22 PM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :) And we have started a new round! =D Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: waltermot321 on October 26, 2013, 03:38:17 AM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :) And we have started a new round! =D Oh no, the difficulty jump again!! Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: GodfatherBond on October 26, 2013, 05:03:25 PM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :) About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: TheDragonSlayer on October 30, 2013, 09:51:09 AM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :) About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.2 Billion, do I get something If I guess it right? :) Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on October 30, 2013, 02:25:21 PM 1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now :) About there, maybe a bit more (1500 MM) by end of this year.2 Billion, do I get something If I guess it right? :) Bragging rights I suppose. This next one is going to have even more variaiton within the unknowns than the last, I'm finding it hard to estimate with certainty. My math comes up with: Worse case scenario: 2,235,934,660 Likely scenario: 1,915,001,512 My gut says 1.7b, but I'm going to stick with my 2 above. Just wanted to note my gut's feeling in case I need to take that more into consideration for the next go-round lol. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: zvs on October 30, 2013, 02:48:30 PM I predict it'll be so high that you won't even be able to shake a stick at it
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: vesperwillow on October 30, 2013, 02:53:54 PM I predict it'll be so high that you won't even be able to shake a stick at it Of this, I have no doubt. I also believe it still has a ways to go beyond that. :/ Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: rampalija on October 31, 2013, 12:00:05 AM around 500 000 000
Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 08:00:59 PM Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion.
In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit. Paper weights! The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road. We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF. So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed. But I digress... Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: rampalija on November 01, 2013, 08:03:56 PM Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion. In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit. Paper weights! The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road. We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF. So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed. But I digress... can difficulty of BTC decrease Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: Vlad2Vlad on November 01, 2013, 08:06:16 PM Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion. In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit. Paper weights! The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road. We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF. So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed. But I digress... can difficulty of BTC decrease Of course. If people choose to mine something else or just turn off their ASICS then the difficulty will go down. Title: Re: How high will the difficulty be in 60 days? Post by: rampalija on November 01, 2013, 08:07:21 PM Next difficulty will surpass 500 million and by Christmas we'll be over 1.2 billion. In other words, every unit being shipped [late] by butterfly labs right now will never see a profit. Paper weights! The reason most people are on the low side is that they're not taking into account the massive recent spike in Bitcoin Price [which will keep surging into Christmas and New Year] and also the global attention [and legitimacy] brought to Bitcoin due to the closure of Silk Road. We probably now have a few million new entrants which nobody is aware of, and that number will sky rocket next year with the Bitcoin ETF. So both of these factors [and soon the Bitcoin ETF] will greatly accelerate the difficulty rate as millions more people buy ASICS, which will consistently put a massive downward pressure on Scrypt coins which means Litecoin et al are doomed. But I digress... can difficulty of BTC decrease Of course. If people choose to mine something else or just turn off their ASICS then the difficulty will go down. maybe that will happen sometime in near future, when ppl stop buying their miners and quit mining cuz of ROI |