Bitcoin Forum

This is why I have liquidated my position in Bitcoins.  There is very little upside going forward.  No forward moves of late have any traction whatsoever and demand continues to lag.  Way too little upside for such a risky proposition so my advice is to move into dollars.  Only a significant change in the economy could alter this forecast.

Are you trolling?

No.

BTC Economist: You are a boring troll.


Folks, nothing to see here. Move on.

No, he is just spamming. He is trying to sell his BTC Crash Preparation Kit. Ha!

It has not been at $20 since the crash I believe.  

It is remarkable how often the word troll is used around here.  Truly amazing.  And, we have a poll where something like 1/3 of the people here expect Bitcoin to grow 7-fold to over 100 by the end of the year, and they are seen as the reasonable ones.

Dude, look at his sig. lol


However, I do agree with him anyway.

This thread is worthless.

Considering you are a bitcoin journalist you should be open to diverging views or is BitcoinWeekly the Fox News of bitcoin?

Yes, it might be overused, but in this case the word is appropriate IMO. You seem to be literally posting nothing else than 'bitcoin is going down' posts. I understand that's your sense of humor, but some people get tired of the same jokes every day.

Diverging views yes. Worthless views no.

Bitcoin Weekly does not accept mindless drivel in which there is no effort of analysis. Bitcoin Weekly does not publishes news. Bitcoin Weekly does not do "journalism". Bitcoin Weekly does not pretend to be neutral like Fox News pretend to be "fair and balanced".

We just publish interesting essays and funny comics. That is all.

If you liquidated your position in Bitcoin, you might as well liquidate your presence on this forum and move on with your life.

Yeah aren't you the one offering math tutoring for bitcoins in the marketplace? Why accept bitcoins if you feel their value will decrease.

Probably because he thinks doomsaying and selling 'what to do in a crash' guides is going to net him more BTC.

Market Timing Troll
Econogeek Troll
Product Spam Troll

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=27169.0

ROTFL

Again somebody he puts economist in front of his name and thinks that it means something positive.



Was there ever any economist who actually knew about economic processes? Even the weather man is better -- and he does not claim to have perfect knowledge about future weather, because it's impossible in principle.



Go away. Do theology or something, those people at least want to be lied at.

Criticize bitcoin: troll

Speculate in the wrong way: troll

Opinion against the status quo? You bet that's a troll

 ::) ::) ::) you guys. If you really think it's a troll DON'T FUCKING POST and let it fall off the page.

I just don't get why if everyone is so confident Bitcoin WILL reach $20 again demand is so low?  The markets tell the story.  What people are actually doing is selling, not buying.  Put your money where your mouth is!  At least I have done that by selling.

]

A 100% pointless post coming from a moderator!!  Who runs this cesspool? Get your shit together!

Do you have to be confident either in it rising or falling? How's about a more agnostic and honest approach in that we don't have the means to predict the future......There is no crash, there is no boom, there is only the value of BTC now.

The project continues......

it'll be interesting to see what happens once the 0% commissions go away, people are having too much fun buying for 14.3 and selling for 14.32 repeatedly.

Either someone will step up with a ton of dough to swing the market or get fed up and sell a shitload of coins to start a mini panic

I agree with that.  Note that I do not predict a crash in this thread.  

Bitcoin value will go up again when practical and easy client programs hit the market. That's when non-geeks can start using Bitcoin in everyday transactions. The Android app is a step in the right direction and BitcoinJS sounds very promising.

You are telling us that you don't believe in Bitcoin but you are sticking around for... ?  for the lulz?

Yes I do find it an interesting project.

And the reason you are pushing your agendas is...?   (no need to answer this)

Stating a prediction is not pushing an agenda.  For me, this thread will be most entertaining when I bump it in the future.

^^ Totally agreed. It will be fun to bump it in the future  ;D  8)

Bitcoins were only above 20 because of the massive flood of people into the bitcoin community. Things have evened out since then and anyone basing the value of bitcoins off of the boom is going to be disappointed.

Saying bitcoins will never reach $20 again is just flat out ridiculous. It *may* not, but sorry to say that your opinion/thoughts have no affect what-so-ever on what happens in bitcoins future.

ok.

tell you what.

i'll bet you 50 BTC that Bitcoin will exceed an exchange rate of $20 USD - without the openendedness of your blanket prediction:  that is, at some or any point within the next six months.

in escrow.


no PMs.  open on the forum.

in or out?

Welcome to the hivemind.

Usually why I don't bother with speculation threads unless I'm bored.

Agreed! I run a couple forums and worthless threads go straight to the recycle bin, they don't get replies from moderators!  ::)

+1000  LOL!

I don't think he is a troll, I think he is a serious economist. I think serious economists produce bullshit only.

I think this is how every single one of these threads needs to be handled :D

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year.  

Oooo smackdown. Who's stepping up to the plate?

BTC 'Economist' - We'd better get this out of the way - since you'll be proven wrong in the coming weeks.

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6137/5917167488_4795ea3e90_b.jpg

Enjoy your trophy of forum fail.

denominated in BTC, so any bears taking the bet would be losing twice so to speak.  ;D

Surely people must be buying, otherwise who are the sellers selling to?

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not.  the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20.  i said "exceed".

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC.  my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection.  it adds flavor...

Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20.  But the odds are still heavily in your favor.  

In Bitcoins, yes.  But a bear would believe Bitcoins would lose value otherwise why take the bet?  As an example, lets say in a year BTC's are worth $5, so technically the bear wins.  This would be the transaction:

Bear buys 100BTC today at $1,400 (approx.)
Bear wins 100 BTC one year from now.
Bear takes his 200 BTCs from the escrow and cashes out at $1,000.

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year.  Only a moron would take that bet.

Since when does the internet have a shortage of morons?

i disagree.  the odds are in the bears favor b/c given all the info we have today based on price action, the price one year from now should be exactly what it is now, in the 14's.

in order for Jamie and i to win our bets, the price has to appreciate over 6/14x100 percent for  us to win.  this is irrespective of whether he owns btc now or not.

except for this:  in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

i am certainly so.

so no.

and where does your 100 BTC come from?  my original bet was 50.   ::)

EDIT:  and $5 is just silly, methinks...

It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not.  It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE.  See my example.


Cypherdoc.  Who I quoted.  Not you.  Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway.

so make a bet if bear looses in a year he will pay a bull 100 btc  and if bull looses he will pay a bear 100 usd :)

whether the bears own btc or not given the way this bet is constructed is irrelevant.  since none of us really knows which way the relative price of btc to USD is going to go, whichever currency you bet with is irrelevant.

as i said above, given we're betting on market price, all relevant information about btc to USD is already priced into the market and its reasonable to expect what we know today that the price one year from now will be exactly the same.

something special (unknown info) in the market would have to happen for it to appreciate 6/14 x 100 to $20 and that places the odds in favor of the bear.

ummm...  i looked at your post #51, and you were quoting me.

however, i suppose you have a point.

i would allow the OP to escrow a sum of USD equal to BTC at $20.00000001 USD (the point at which i win and collect), so his escrow account shows no loss over six months in the event he wins.  the escrow holder can convert, if needed, to pay me.  my BTC won't need to be converted to USD, since it's a BTC bet and i pay at the value then.

$20 :'(

+1

Get the fu** out please because we don't need you here. And you don't need to be here obviously.

Agree 100%.. It seems most people posting on the BTC forums are new to the internet.
Not everyone who disagrees with your opinion, or posts something that slightly irritates you, is a "troll".

Not everyone with short hair is a fascist nazi. Not everyone with a fur cap is a 'commie'.

That is all.

I like keeping idiot topics like this on the front page until they are conclusively proven to be wrong. Look at lardycake, that idiot hasn't bothered following up since we eviscerated his foolish claims.

This one will fall too, just give it some time :)

Last Mt.Gox: 15.13

Sure, let's go sledding...
Last Mt.Gox: 14 (intraday high: 14.09)

GO back to February when it went over $1. It took 1.75 months to go back above $1 again. What technical indicators are you looking at?

I'm not against the idea that bitcoins could go below $10 briefly. But I am of the opinion that just because it isn't profitable to mine doesn't mean the market is dead. If you know anything about anything concerning trading you will know that there are slow times and there are fast times. They oscillate.

He's not trolling. I have the exact same stance.


If gox doesn't reinstate fees immediately and put forth actions to deter bots, bitcoin is going to have a MAJOR MAJOR uphill battle to climb.


Attention spans don't last 3 days, much less 14 days. There is going to be a deeeeeep decline in interest.

 Bitcoin will reach $20 again!
~1.5 days after it bottoms near $1.50, or 6.50 or 7.50, or 10.25.........

I'm waiting for it to bottom at $0.10 so that I can buy 50k Bitcoins.

Bitcoin has always been a risky proposition.  Anyone who has ever thought otherwise is a fool.

"no forward moves of late" and "very little upside going forward" is clearly a troll, or a daytrader.  The sample size (timescale) is far too small to make any such prediction.

There is nothing wrong with bot trading.


Your attention span is that short, sure.

Grown-ups take a longer view.

We have a lot of day traders.... or we had. Many of them care nothing for Bitcoin except as a way to obtain USD.

Meh..there's always new people ready to join any new venture. And it wouldnt hurt to get rid of the 'riff-raff' anyway...

Best post ever. I have noticed all the crap you get if you take any stance other than bitcoin will be worth millions in a month.

If people think the bitcoin will be worth so much in the future, who the heck is going to use it as a means of exchange when it is appreciating so quickly? Or is that not even the point of bitcoin? Is it like a rare collectible?

Seems like volume is down in the markets as the bitcoin slowly stabalizes.  With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value as the make a million dollars in two months interest drops off.

I was recently ~95% convinced $14 was the new upper limit, but people keep buying and we are now slightly over 14 again.
When something is so obvious as "With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value", markets tend to surprise you and do the opposite (at least short-term)

There's only so much second guessing and self-contrarianism you can do.  Once pricing starts behaving in such a way that obvious analysis no longer applies then it's time to step WAAAAY back and take another look at both your strategy and whatever it is you're trading.

You're looking at a market with roughly 6000 participants.  A very easily manipulated, unregulated and somewhat opaque market.  One person's changing sentiment can mean the difference between being right and being wrong short term, and daytrade time frame charting simply can't cope with that.  Plus, this is a strongly trending item -- do you adjust your charts for the long term trend?  If you don't apply trend-adjusted logarithmic smoothing you could be looking at a stable or slightly increasing pattern on a chart when in reality the price movement is down based on a long term trend.   Another reason I don't consider absolute price points of weeks or months ago as exact resistance or support levels.

I don't think the BTC market is big enough to day trade.  In swing trade time frames or longer the pricing movement is still rational and predictable.

That said, IMO the sudden transition from explosive growth in both difficulty and pricing to an effectively zero variation flatline isn't natural.  Bots have nothing to do with that, all they do is narrow the ask/bid spread.

Oh, and OP: you're wrong.  If bitcoin doesn't go to 0 it's going higher.  The long term trend has not been broken and shows no sign of weakness.

Lack of profitability in mining means slow or totally stalled bitcoin transfers.
Without profitable mining (or someone mining even at a loss) bitcoin dies because coins can't move around.

Even traders need to deposit bitcoins or withdraw them in many cases. So they are dependent on miners as well

And since the exchanges know this full well, my guess is that they have at least token mining operations in place so that the system will keep going, even at a loss, if (and it's a big if) all the other miners decide to throw their hands up in the air and shut down.

Bingo.  There will always be someone to mine, even out of idealism.  We have proof -- just look at namecoins.  Anyone currently mining namecoins (rather than mining bitcoins and buying namecoins) is giving away more than 30% of their processing power.  Soon they'll be giving away 70% of their processing power.  Not everyone is motivated by profit and income.

As long as there's some usefulness at all in the bitcoin network someone will mine.  Plenty of people have spare hardware and "free" power and network access.  Not everyone's cost basis is the same, and for some even $0 is enough incentive to mine.

Bank cards charge substantial fees on both the consumer and the vendor. If bitcoin miners can get even a small fraction of the action that banks get, there will be miners everywhere.

You forget that the future prices may reflect a reason for mining at a loss at the current time. Not all markets remain static and thus they fluctuate. I suspect you will see a fluctuation in the price of namecoins to one bitcoin.

Don't be too sure that anyone is giving away processing power. Those who mine namecoins are holding them for a reason. Same with bitcoin.

Also keep in mind...that early on in bitcoin the pioneers who mined not ALWAYS mined at a profit. They saw the big picture and not just 4 feet in front of their faces.

No, the people mining namecoins simply can't do math.  If they had mined bitcoins instead and bought namecoins one of two things will have happened: they'd have wound up with MORE namecoins (30-40% more) or the price of namecoins would have reached difficulty parity with BTC.  I suspect a combination of the two.  Oh, and more people would be mining NMC because of that price parity, so NMC isn't stuck in 1-2 transaction an hour hell for over a month.

Early bitcoin pioneers didn't have the option to mine "bonuscoins" which easily converted to the exact same bitcoins but with 30-40% more output.  If they had you can bet the clever ones would have mined those instead.

You seem to confuse "going long namecoins" with "mining namecoins."  The second is a way to accomplish the first, but with a massive penalty.

What, and lose the entertainment? You are like free cable, Clown.

I have to ask.  Why do some people get no fees at Mt.Gox while others get .3% fees?  What is their justification for this?  Seems unfair as shit, especially because I am in the .3% camp.

Your perspective is still focused on the short term. Did bitcoins value go from $0.00001 to $32 in less than a month? No. So you're comment about it been on a downward trend for a month isn't any different than bitcoins not gaining in market value for more than a month.

You keep saying things like "massive penalty" when you can't forecast the price of bitcoins nor namecoins for that matter. For all we know bitcoins could take a shit-dive to $7 for a month then in the meantime give namecoins a month's worth of high times.

Like I said also, Satoshi and the pioneers did take losses in the beginning prior to the recent run up in price in the last 9 months. So how is it a surprise that early adopters of namecoin are taking a loss in the short-term same as Satoshi?

Obviously you're more like a day trader. Make your $1 spend it and then in 6 months realize if you saved that $1 you would have had $1000.

Come back and talk to me in 6 months and we'll see who was short-sighted on the matter.

Compensation for those who had money and/or Bitcoins tied up at MtGox during the hack and subsequent shutdown.

Nope, I have .3% fees, and I had both USD -and- BTC over there at the time.

I would let them know.  Maybe you were overlooked.

You had to have open orders that were actually executed during the crackhack in order to qualify.

So far my prediction has held.  It's pretty much been holding in the $13 range for some time and buying support remains weak.

i will make an as equally bold prediction:  BTC will never go down to $6 again.

Seriously that post is a troll.

The title of the topic is (in case it gets changed sometime)
"Bitcoin will never reach $20 again"

So what if after 3 weeks it hasn't reached $20?

That's a very small percentage of the time between now and "never"

The only possibility of "never" being proven true is if "The Bitcoin" fails before it "ever" reaches $20

For someone who says they know economics, your mathematics and logic skills seem to be rather lacking even in your original thread name ...

Semantics....eventually everyone realizes how completely unfeasible $20 is. 

And to the poster who thinks it will never reach $6, I invite you to start a thread so we don't forget your prediction.

bitcoins were being sold for over a million USD per one at MtGox today so this thread failed.

+1

for the same reason the snills said BTC went to zero, yes we can say BTC went to >1M USD!

you lose.

Idiot.  That's a glitch, not a market price.

What surprises me about the bitcoin price is how well it is holding around $13 dollars. I guess most bitcoin holders are rich tech savy people, who would rather sit with their coins to their death rather than sell them.

This is probably the reason why the price has not fallen. I can see this going on for a while, and bitcoin holders have already tasted the $20+ dollar range. Most are insane and blind enough in the idea to think each bitcoin is worth a small country. And shit, if I actually owned even 1 bitcoin, maybe I would be insane and blind also. Who does not want to be filthy rich.

Scaracity and hoarding is the only tool that bitcoin bulls have.

Most people interested in buying know that the bitcoin is not worth even worth $13 dollars a coin. They will be much more careful with their dollars.

So the price will be up to the horders not giving in and selling too cheaply. It will not be up to people actually needing or demanding bitcoin for any useful purpose.

I say in the end the price will be lower because every day there are still thousands of bitcoins being produced. With each passing day it will be a test on how long can you hold out when it becomes more obvious that the price is not going any higher.

 

I hear a similar story regarding De Beers and Diamonds.
Apparently it's working ok for them.

Yes, it seems to also be working to some extent with bitcoin.

However, when you compare De Beers with  Bitcoin, De Beers is much more controlled by far less people.
Bitcoins are owned by many people so collusion should not be so high.
 
Again, I still think that there are a few market players in bitcoin artifically holding up the price and causing the scarcity. I would bet that a few people are responsible for buying most of the bitcoins that are going on the market.

Will these few players be able to hold up the price of buying the marjority of future bitcoins for the months to come... I do not know if they would take the gamble with that kind of money.

What does it mean to "artificially hold up the price and cause scarcity?" Why are my decisions as a market participant "artificial?" I reckon it's because you don't agree with my valuation of the value of a Bitcoin. I think it would be equally silly to say that YOU are "artificially lowering the price" by not buying more coins.

You think Bitcoins aren't worth $13. I think they're worth vastly more. Neither of our opinions are "artificial." I am not causing scarcity, and you are not causing over-supply.

$20 is looking less and less likely.  Pretty soon I will be preparing the crow for you guys to eat.

I don't necessarily agree with your statements.

If Bitcoin returns and doesn't crash for good...it could easily hit 20 again.  The problem with bitcoin is people invested too quickly and the price went up too quickly.  Right now it needs to be in the single digits to survive.  Losses will come to those that invested high...but as long as speculators don't invest too heavily and bring the price up too quickly it will be easier to believe in the bitcoin.  The big problem is how high it went and how fast it got there.  We are talking THOUSANDS of percentage points in a year.

Nah, being high valued is not a problem as long as it maintains that value; the more people believe it should be worth at least 100 bucks per BTC the faster we'll get there and the easier it will  be to keep it from going down again. We just gotta believe it.

How is $20 looking less and less likely again?
So BTCs drop quite a bit over the past 2-3 days - there isn't any reason why it wouldnt go back up soon. The "crash" (if you can easily call it that) is a result of a few things, at least what I gather, including the MyBitcoins scam and the fact that BTCs hit $20 so fast at first for example. The MyBitcoins scam was an immediate and one time occurrence that'll balance out very shortly.

To say that it won't go back to $20 for a long time is a bit of a long stretch.
To say that it'll NEVER go back to $20 again is an even longer stretch.

There is still no easy way for me to transfer bitcoins to my computer illiterate (and fictional) uncle Joe. Until then, not enough people care about collecting bitcoins. Maybe bitcoins can be this holiday season's big gift idea? ^^

Why don't you accept one of the public bet offers then? Have I missed it? You don't have to of course, but it would be more fun. ;)

Slightly off-topic but, I propose making asymmetrical bets (futures contract?) in these cases, so that both sides get the currency they like in the end, and optionally no criteria need to be specified. For instance, I have a bet with a friend saying that "in five years, you will give me 100 bitcoins and I will give you the current equivalent in your preferred currency". There is no "if" clause. So, if the bet is made now against USD, I'd pledge to give him USD 1000 in five years, and him 100 BTC to me. If BTC is worth more than it is now in US dollars, I profit, otherwise he does.

BTC Economist's challenge has an "if" clause though, so even easier. I can take the bet with BTC against USD any time. Better to define "never" first... :)

Because he does not have neither money to bet nor real belief in whatever he's saying :)

This is what early adopters would like to believe, but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions.  If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.

PURE LIES

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

THE LIST OF ACCEPTING BUSINESSES IS EXPLODING...

wow, massive list! last time I checked it out there were tops 20 sites listed

"BTC Crash Preparation Kit" lol. :D

Maybe it could be ported to the EURO and used to prop up Italy and Spain?

Isn't this analysis ignoring one big thing - It's hard/time consuming/expensive to go from USD -> BTC right now, or really any non-digital currency.

Look at the timing of past surges - There is money trying to get in, and just not getting past the funding hurdle?

Add to that the series of amateur hour mistakes from various bitcoin organizations and thefts, this seems like a pretty extreme negative scenario... until the funding part eases up, at which point the market gets an infusion of hot cash and we're back to the races.

Are you mindful of those factors?  It seems like your analysis is purely based on the charting, which is an incomplete picture by any standards.

Installing the bitcoin client isn't difficult,  yes, you'd have to walk Joe through it, but it is still a lot easier than paying him with a credit card.

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.

Joe may understand credit cards, you still can't pay him with one.  Paying him with bitcoin is about the same level of difficulty as paying him with paypal, but without the transaction fees.

You can pay me with credit cards - I have a card swipe and a smartphone... Then again I'm doubting I'm a good representative for "average" ;)

Yeah, you are definitely not computer illiterate uncle joe. 

This is a big societal issue that I honestly cannot believe we tolerate. Today computer literacy is every bit as important as... well... literacy!

People who can't read are ashamed of it, they hide the fact, they try to learn or fix the problem, make it better. There are programs with volunteers and donations to help people who can't read learn and parents recognize the importance of their children being able to read lest they be forced to choose between ditch-digging and the circus. Why do we tolerate computer illiteracy?

More than tolerate, some seem to think there is legitimately nothing wrong with it! I've heard countless folks from the generations before me say things like "oh I don't know anything about this computer stuff, I'll just leave that to you young folks"... NO! You need these skills to survive today! How do you function in any modern office environment without email, word processing, spreadsheets, databases etc. It should not be acceptable for your mother, father, friends, aunts, uncles, employees or employers to be computer illiterate, any more than you'd consider it acceptable for them to be unable to read, dress themselves, tie their own shoes, bathe and groom themselves... These are basic skills now, they're part of the toolkit for everyday life and I refuse to accept it as normal or reasonable for anyone to lack them.

Uncle Joe needs to go take a class at the community college, or better yet someone could start a massive non-profit and try to get computer literacy the sort of attention that reading literacy currently appreciates.

I understand that bitcoin is NOT simple mainstream stuff and I expect to have to explain it to the "Uncle Joes" of the world, but I shouldn't have to first explain how to use their browser, mouse, etc.

Full disclosure: I've spent far too many hours of my life working tech support, so this might just be bitter techie syndrome...

I work at a place that educates people on how to use their computers.  However computers are still very new, relatively speaking.   They did not gain widespread use until the 80's and the internet wasn't until the 90's, there are plenty of people who lived most of their lives without interacting with computers.

We do need to educate people in computer use, but it is unreasonably to expect everyone to be computer literate at this time.

DNA testing also came about in the 80s, blossomed to full capability in the 90s and is used extensively today. Should we expect the average person to not understand that either? The world changes, sometimes fast sometimes slow, it's important for people of all ages to keep up with at least the most dramatic and important of those changes, or at least put in the effort. The correct answer for the computer illiterate is not "I don't know and I'm OK with that" - the correct answer is "I don't know, so maybe I should learn."

To make sure I'm 100% clear: I don't expect everyone to be a computer whiz, I'm questioning the societal attitude that allows them to simply not try.

$9.55

Where's TraderTimm?

Never is a long time.

I would say that the current price is in part caused by this attack (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34624).

Whoa now fella...you think the average person does understand DNA testing? Maybe they have a concept of the end result from what they saw on television, but they have no fucking clue what is actually happening. This is perhaps the stupidest analogy I have ever seen drawn.

It is completely unnecessary to interact with computers on a personal level on a day to day basis. Ask anyone's grandparents. The social attitude that allows them to 'simply not try' is that they will be dead before it matters. My grandpa didn't wear a seatbelt his whole fucking life, amassed dozens of tickets for it, and died without ever having regularly used one, despite everyone who knew him trying their hardest to convince him that it was the simplest thing you could do to protect yourself. That was just a seatbelt. You think he was going to be picking up 'googling' just because of your 17-year-old self-righteous indignation?

"They" don't think any of this is cool :D...

I, for one, am thoroughly versed in the discipline of DNA testing, as are all my immediate peers. I mean, who isn't? I'm surprised so many of you neanderthals would lack such a necessary understanding of our double helix essence. How do you continue to exist?

Perhaps we should find a high point with lots of foot traffic underneath and spit on the plebes below for being so goddamn stupid.

Ah, the plebes. As I puff on my pipe reading this fine online literature, I can recall the days of mingling with these common folk. Those were the days.

Now, we've got canes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPQrXUpvkuc&feature=related

I lol'd  ;D

It is funny how all the bitcoin fans are trying to change the topic of this thread.  They'd rather lose money than heed my advice.  The plunge continues. 

$8.80

Glad you care about us. /endsarcasm

Along with several others, I have been warning people to get out for about a month now.

where do you think it will stabilize?

Between $0 and $1...probably on the lower end. 

How soon? within the year?

I am not sure really...my advice is simply to sell.  I will let you know if my advice changes to buy, but since this thread, the value has plunged almost 50% with very few if any uptick days.

$8.01 now..about a 10% plunge in the last 20 minutes.

But why you care ?! It's their money. Noone bought bitcoins hoping they will be worth less in the future so they can lose money. People bought, thinking its a good project and they like it so much that they are willing to put their money on the line. I don't understand why anyone should have a problem what some random person does with their money or time.

Lets say price drops to $5.00 and I buy some coins. Do you think I would care what some random monkey spews on some forum? Nope. At that price/moment I decided that my risk/reward is in my favor and I put my own money at risk. I wouldn't care if everyone would be msg me that I'm stupid. If it would drop more I would add more coins while forum monkeys would laugh at me, typing pages and pages how much money I have lost. It's not their money, so why would anyone care. If they get a kick out of posting shit like that, let them.

I care because I don't like to see people lose money recklessly, especially when their rationality is suspended by illusions of easy money.

OK BTC Economist, so let me try this way.  Lets say I'm well off, nice house, cars, business, family. Business makes me $350k per year after tax for the last 15 years, still growing steadily 10% yoy. Price of bitcoin is at $5.00 and I have a buy order of 1k willing to add 1k every $0.50 down to $1.50 where I would stop adding to my position. I would hold forever. If all would fill I have $26k on the line, with practically small chance of ever make it back.

Do you think I would care what your opinion is? Who are you? Are you a top trader at SAC ? You ever work at least at GS ?? Do you own a $10 mill yacht and will fly me out and explain to me why I shouldn't risk this $26k I'm willing to put on the line, because I like this bitcoin idea? Why should I listen to you what I do with less than a month of profits?

Do you realize that you are just anonymous voice on the internet? you can easily have your own interests in driving cost down. And logical thinking tells that when someone preaches something, most of the time they don't do it out of sheer kindness especially considering the fact that this is very similar to the wild west and gold rush - everyone trying to get a piece.

So bad that bitoption is closed...If you're right you can make a lot of dollars shorting bitcoin.
I think Ruxum is going to add derivatives, I'll let you know.

Seriously, I think is going down because of the attack on mybitcoin, the attacker probably sold it all.
Maybe bit-pay and BTCinch selling too much?
I don't think so, but that's going to be bullish for btc in the long run anyway.

Well if you are just gambling, do as you please.  You don't have to listen to me.

Ummm, aren't all investments a form of gambling? I mean, sure it might be informed gambling, but come on man.

if "investing" in a beta stage, open-source project isn't gambling, then I don't know what it is...

maybe "donating" to the cause? I mean, at this point, all investors in bitcoin are essentially funding a start-up project, with the hopes that it succeeds and they will get paid off in the end.




If you have more money in bitcoin than you are comfortable with losing, then I think you need to re-evaluate your "investment" strategy.

Thing is, everyone who joined after April and put money on the line is gambling. Especially people who bought coins when the price was above $15.00 and still haven't sold. Bitcoin for the masses is still totally new. Most of us got here when the price boomed from April $1 to June $30. Some started mining on a low scale, some went big, some started day trading on MtGox and some invested for the long run.

Since price ran up from April $1 to June $30 everyone who ever traded anything in their lives KNEW this was a bubble about to pop. When it did pop a smaller % of them KNEW bubble needs to deflate and we are still in this process today. You and I will agree on that. What we might not agree on is the future of the bitcoin. You as far as I read or understand, you think bitcoin has no future and price will plummet down to sub $1 and probably stay there forever, eventually it will die. Me on the other hand see a potencial in the future.

You might be right that bitcoin price will never reach $20 again, but that kind of speculation is just outright stupid to say. I figure you probably follow stocks and thing is that in most cases, like 85%+ you would be right. Once the stock ran its natural course it will most likely stay within a certain range forever. Not many run up exponentially for a while then totally collapse and run up again  in the near future. But bitcoin isn't a stock, its fundamentals are different. There is no trailing P/E we could associate it with or has earnings or profit margin or anything like that.

Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price in fiat money. It's functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more. Eventually bitcoin price will get low enough so fresh money added to the market will be able to meet up with the supply. I'm almost 100% certain that will ultimately happen. I think it will happen in the range from $1 to $5.

I won't start buying before $6.00. I would rather miss the whole thing and forget about bitcoins all together then buy above that price or EVER chase it higher. But that's just me. When/if I will start buying, I know already the whole plan, which I might fine tune as we go along, but I won't ever go outside my comfort zone. I know exactly how much I will buy, when, how much it will cost me and when I will/might sell. There isn't anyone who could influence me in a way that I would change my plan drastically. I would/will still read what people are saying but not react on it unless the price/volume tells me so. That's how I made money in the past and will do so in the future.

Well what I was referring to was your previous post where you indicated someone might be investing an insignificant quantity of money in bitcoin that they don't care if they lose...that's fine.  However, most people don't have experience investing in junk bonds and that's basically what bitcoin is.  There's a huge difference between that and buying a mutual fund or share of Google.

This is exactly what I think of bitcoin "investing": as shares in a startup.  When a venture capital company gives $100M to a startup and takes a 10% stake, thus valuing the company at $1B, rarely is the company actually worth $1B at that point.  Like the 8 month old Square.com:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383813592144744.html

And I can guarantee that Bitcoin has more users, more publicity, and more man-years of development than Square, and is more deserving of $100M in capital.

How much money has actually been put into the Bitcoin ecosystem?  I think MagicalTux said $6M in total transactions in June, so call it $4M in and $2M out, and perhaps $10M for the year.  Sure, some of that is going to speculators, but even if 1/10th of that is going towards supporting engineering effort, its comparable in money utilization to a startup.  So, sure, we might all be throwing our money away, but I think we all know that - we're in the speculation subforum, after all.

There is one stupid thing the OP overlooks ;) Bitcoin will definitely hit USD 20 IF the USD goes into hyperinflation. THey will hit USD 1 billion a piece when a coke costs 100 billion USD ;)

Not very likely, but: in the larger scale, USD 20 WILL be hit. NEVER say never to financial courses. They may not in 1-2 years, but hey - last time I checked, "never" covered longer timeframes ;)

The lower it goes the faster it will go up once it bounces

We are now around $6.50.  What a day!  Price has dropped about 60% since I started this thread.

Bitcoin will go back up ...

Thats true...

Hmm its on the way back up a bit for a while today ...

Some analysts say the USA is about to encounter a massive bout o deflation.  Japan has been trying to reinflate its economy for over 20 years, often with 0% interest rates.  Hasn't worked, won't work.  When debt is too high people won't borrow money even if it's free.

Some commentators such as at The Automatic Earth state housing in the USA will fall about 90% from peak to trough.  Only a quarter of the way there so far.

If US leadership does go nuts and has the Fed monetize all the debt, I would be invested in gold, silver and weapons.  No use holding a USB stick when hungry, angry, riotous hoards come visiting your middle class abode.

Heh... The JAPANESE won't borrow free money when they're already in debt...the Americans? They'll have inflation  :D

Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?

I'll let you know when we get past "never"

Can you read ?! Price $6 has nothing to do with what he said in the title or his opening post. Back to 1st grade you go.

If the OP knew about the crash of MyBitcoin.com, Bitomat, Dwolla, and the issues with Euro bank transfers so far ahead of time, WHY THE F*CK DIDN'T HE WARN EVERYONE?!?!?!?!?!

Twat.

This is a key observation sorely missed by all the naysayers who are comparing this to a penny stock.  My plan is very similar to yours.

Difficulty is a sort of fundamental, and exponential increases in difficulty support corresponding increases in price.




When bitcoin was $1 the daily trade volume (on MtGox) was around $10k USD on low days and $50k USD on strong days.  By the time daily volume was above $100k+ on average, price was above $5 and on its way to $10 (volume was growing to a million).

Unless we see a massive decrease in daily trade volume from the current $500k-$1m, down to under $100k, I'd be very suprised to see prices below $5.

Someone made a great post earlier and independently came to the same point as you and showed his work to boot:

Aren't those two different, somewhat contradictory points.  The first guy is implying the price should go up, the second is implying it should go down...

This is purely my view of the situation and my initial entry point $6.00 in the post you quoted.

$6.00 was a lucky fill, because someone dumped 26k in one large order tanking market down to $5.75. Some were saying who was this idiot or/and that Mtgox should look into it, because it was most likely criminal activity. All of this is possible but most likely its just another bullshit dream from hardcore bulls, coming up with 1001 excuse why this is happening.

If I was an early adopter who would go big into mining when GPU mining started I would probably have like 200k coins, if not more. Since I'm smarter than the average Joe, I would be unloading massive amounts around $20.00 right after the bubble popped and market bounced back up next day. I would be liquidating every coin to my name. Some might say this is a hindsight, but I'm almost 100% sure I would do that. But if somehow I wasn't as smart or if I didn't know what is the most likely path market will take in the next couple of weeks/months I would be selling below $20.00. Whenever there would be enough bids for me to unload 10k-20k I would do it. Even now, when the price got really low, if I was still holding coins I would be hitting that bid whenever I could. This is basically the only way a large coin holder can sell their stash. He/she can't sit around for hours and fight with all this bots and wannabe daytraders moving around 50 coins all day long. There is simply no liquidity in the market to unload big position. Every time someone wants to sell 15k+ market will have an earthquake. It might not seem like much if you consider market daily volume is 100k, but selling even 10k is a huge problem. Most of the time when we get 100k volume, it because this large seller is unloading ~30k.

Market will slide lower all the way until this big sellers are done and out completely. If they will be done soon, we might be close to the bottom at $4 to $6 range, but if this big sellers are still holding a lot, there is no way market can keep up with the supply. This seller isn't crashing the market, they just want to unload their position. When he/she sells ~30k they stop and market stabilizes for a few days, then gets hit by another 30k in a short time and lower it goes. Every time big seller shows up it creates shock waves, because all the small time traders follow. At first everyone is trying to sell as quickly as possible, then when market is way oversold we get this bots or human daytraders moving around tiny trades on which the market bounces, shoots into overbought on practically no volume at all, then sells down and stabilizes at its new trading range, sitting there until the big seller wants to unload again. Lower the market goes more money is waiting to get filled. This is how market will find its bottom. Then will the accumulation phase start. It might take weeks/months before this phase is over, then we would be finally ready to MAYBE start a new uptrend.


Where to next?

I'm sitting and waiting for big seller to done their thing. Whenever they show up and market tanks below what I consider decent entry based on the overall market picture and volumes we are getting at that time, I/you can buy some coins and sell them if the price gets high enough for you/me to be worth the risk/reward. Will we ever see $20 again? I don't know, but its not really important to me. Bitcoin isn't an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100.

I hope everyone's coined up

You still think there's going to be a rally today, don't you?

Finally. Someone who can LOGICALLY support his claims and speculations, and appears to know what he is talking about. +1

They are different, but not contradictory.

The first post was about how price is related to trading volumes, and that for this volume of trading the price should be around $5.

The second was about how price was related to mining, and how current mining hardware supports a price level of about $5 at the minimum (he also says that's the maximum, but whatever).

My point was just that both these people decided on ~$5 as the bottom using different approaches, and that plus the understanding that Bitcoin is not a company stock but a fundamentally different form of currency leads me to agree that is where we will bottom out.

I still think there will be a rally. When I dont know, but I will say with certainty - Bitcoin's not done. In my opinion its just getting started. The foundation of the currency and the community is still taking shape. All you have to do is take a look at the infrastructure going up around it to see that. The one BIG advantage Bitcoin has over mainstream currencies is ease of use. How else can you pay for something located on the other side of the globe within an hour or so, if not minutes? And mobile payments is the BIG growth area. The problem that still exists with this however is the slowness of the regular banking system. This is where Bitcoin has a huge advantage thats not yet been fully realised. And the as far as price goes, the best may still be yet to come. All it needs is a few big players to become interested and its value could skyrocket again overnight BUT with a bigger/stronger/more secure foundation beneath it, the price wont tank next time.

Not predicting when the rally will start, but it is likely that there will be a rally eventually. A good article on the stages of Bitcoin. We are just finishing stage 1, Bitcoin 0.0. http://vermorel.com/journal/2011/8/3/bitcoin-thoughts-on-a-nascent-currency-system.html

Sorry, been busy making money after one of your pals, Bernanke, got the rug pulled out from under by Standard and Poors.

If you're worried about my cost basis in bitcoin, don't be -- I got in way below parity :)

The points you make about utility are valid, but the mistake you make is in thinking that This iteration of crypto currency will be the one that becomes the standard. I see Bitcoin more as a trial run of the crypto currency protocol, a way to see the strengths and shortcomings. The very fact that this is all open-source makes the possibility, in my mind, that a subsequent iteration of this system - likely one backed by a company with the ability to provide branding and a concerted and effective marketing effort - will be the future. Bitcoin's name has been tarnished beyond repair - you can argue this all you want, but you and I both know it. There is just no incentive by any interested party to waste time undoing negative perceptions when the code can be copied, tweaked and polished to provide the safety and convenience Bitcoin has always lacked and something which the Bitcoin developers have yet to address despite the passage of so much catastrophe. It is unforgivable that an update to the client has not been made which provides an encrypted wallet. Unforgivable - and a testament to the failure of the "community" effort.

Bitcoin is so tarnished it's useless? Why does this 'iteration' have to be abandoned and started anew to flourish? If the changes are beneficial, the community will accept them; no new blockchain needed.

Why don't you read up on the history of the US Dollar and come back with some historical knowledge to back your argument. That one was basically an open source build for longer than it has been stable and regulated.

Just checkin'

Hmm $11 to $12 range earlier ...
Looks like it didn't crash and burn today at least :)

But dude, it will never get back to 20! NEVER! EVER! :)

That's like saying that gold's name was tarnished because of a few big gold robberies.

Can't wait till we hit $20 after Bitcon so I can come back into this thread and LAUGH.

uh yes.

where is that weenie BTCEconomist anyway?

After a while you learn to just ignore the negativity around here..


And yes that was a nice little rally..

Get ready for another push to $12 ;D

he's sitting in a cave waiting for the price to hit $5 to show up, sooo, I don't think we'll see him for a long time :) (he would have said "never" but I believe it is still possible)

It would be nice if investmernt graphs were just straight lines from zero to the stars but life aint like that, in fact, I prefer it that way, isn't life more interesting and exciting not knowing.
Looking back in a few yrs when you are all millionaires, you'll be able to congratulate yourselves on your daring.
Be daring,   Dig in for the long haul with a small bet and forget the short term trends.

Fixed that for you.

Thanks for that. And yea I suspect the next few days will show why you should never say never.

Conference is a positive thing, but I don't see how it can pump the price almost 100% to $20.00. If you think that is likely to happen you are living in a lala land. Conference will be mostly bitcoin fans from and around NYC area and few others that will fly in for the event.

I have to agree with this. However, there might be other very positive things in sight in the very near future that might or might not be announced at the conference. One of them is reliable sepa-transfers @ mt. gox and the much bigger issue of securing one's wallet might be at least partially solved with the release of the new client that has built-in encryption.

It's not one thing that will raise the price, it will be many things. And I won't speculate how high, that's just useless. Might go over $15, might eventually go over $20 if the hype for Bitcoin goes way up again due to good news and more news in general.

If you don't think this could happen, you have not been paying much attention the past few months.

this is true. its only bound to stay around ten dollars the way things are now.

The price action is nice and steady. Easier for many big investors IMO.

I am right here.  Been busy.  Prediction still holding up!

Bitcoin will never reach $8 again until next year!

You are probably gonna be proven wrong within the next 2 weeks.

No, I'd say it'll stablize at $2.  Edward50 also says that's when he is buying and he has only made accurate predictions to date.

The problem with all these claims is that, whether you are right or not, you're all pulling these figures out of your ass, with absolutely nothing to base them on. So, if it hits $20, or $8, or $2, yay for you, you guessed correctly. You still didn't actually contribute anything of actual value other than a guess, based on a hunch, based on nothing, with the sole purpose of irritating others.
I know you are, but what am I?  :P

Guess your predictions were wrong?  ::)

Well since he has until the end of time to be correct - that prediction isn't wrong yet ..............

If project dies that would not be at the end of time.

maybe the thread should be renamed Bitcoin will never reach $12 again

Below $5 now...(pats self on back)

Back above $5 now.  Woohoo!  Good times are back again.  Time to sell off all those recently purchased cheap bitcoins.  Hopefully the price goes down again.  Rinse, repeat, profit.

The key is knowing when it's at its maximum.  Too many people sell early.

It's been staying above and tracing the 365 day SMA for the last few weeks. I'm not certain it's a support level, but it does seem like something:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1091&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=360&i=Daily&c=1&s=2011-07-31&e=2011-09-28&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=C&b=&a1=SMA&m1=365&a2=SMA&m2=20&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

Dammit are we just going to stay here at $4.8-4.9 forever?
I see that someone just put up a massive 7k ask wall that is probably fake.

It isn't fake if somebody buys through it before its owner can remove it.

If you're lucky.  Otherwise we'll have a repeat of we had last month.  Stagnates for a month, then drops another 20-30%.  Not sure it'll happen until Thanksgiving though, longs were only brutally punished over long weekends in the past.

Remember, we mine 210,000 (or ONE MILLION DOLLARS /evil) worth of coins every month, even at $5.  Whether or not they are sold people feel that much richer on paper, and the market cap grows.  Unless bulls step up and start coughing up a LOT of fresh new money each month we're all just trading for an ever shrinking amount of dollars per coin.

It looks like a line you drew. Does that line just change every time the market changes? And if yes, what's the point?


At least 30% of $5 isn't as bad as 30% of $15. Well, it is for investors, but doesn't make the price drop look as dramatic.

It's a moving average. One year SMA (black) and three weeks (violet). We can bookmark this and track it for the next three weeks:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=900&noheader=1&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=360&i=Daily&c=1&s=2011-8-18&e=2011-10-18&t=W&l=1&a1=SMA&m1=365&a2=SMA&m2=21

Also, if you look at Bitcoin volume on Mt. Gox in currency, not Bitcoins, it's going down. That's striking, especially since there's so much 'bot trading moving the same money back and forth.  (In this era of high-frequency trading in the real world, trading volume means far less than it used to.)

The number of dollars traded has gone down, which is what one expects when prices in dollars goes down. Fewer dollars chasing bitcoins means... supply and demand... lower prices. Even so, trade volume in dollars is higher today than in May when USD/BTC were equal. The number of bitcoins traded has gone up less dramatically, perhaps to be sold for fewer dollars.

$2 million USD / 380 000 BTC = $5.26/BTC. Imagine!

USD: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=450&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Weekly&v=1&cv=1&l=1&t=W&noheader=1&height=300&r=300

BTC: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=450&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Weekly&v=1&cv=0&l=1&t=W&noheader=1&height=300&r=300

What netrin said.  Also, there's an issue with the 365 day SMA line on bitcoincharts.com only going back to around the 16th of August, so that's why it doesn't go all the way to the left of the chart.

Even if he's a troll he does have a point. Nice graphs there netrin!

Someone's not using log-scale charts....

  Can you give an example of where netrin has been trolling?

The weekly gives the wrong impression before the week is out... Here's a daily since May's $5/btc including the 365 and 21 SMA. The last tick is expected to be light before midnight.

These charts don't tell me much about the future. The volumes match what one would expect given the price level ($volume / btc volume = $/btc price). The year trend line is interesting in that we've triple-bottomed and represents a powerful threshold. But your guess is as good as mine whether it will hold or bounce to new heights.

USD: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=450&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&v=1&cv=1&l=1&t=W&noheader=1&height=300&c=1&s=2011-5-1&e=2011-10-10&a1=SMA&m1=365&a2=SMA&m2=21

BTC: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=450&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&v=1&cv=0&l=1&t=W&noheader=1&height=300&c=1&s=2011-5-1&e=2011-10-10&a1=SMA&m1=365&a2=SMA&m2=21

...or go significantly lower.

I don't use charts period. I'm of the technical analysis charts are BS school of thought. Those things are great for looking at history, but apparently suck for any predictions, since every time the price changes unpredictably, everyone just moves their projection lines, and in that case you may as well assume that it will just keep changing unpredictably.

Also, I meant that just from basic common person looking at it perspective, a Bitcoin dropping from $15 to $10, losing $5, looks much worse than a Bitcoin dropping from $5 to $3.33, losing only $1.6. To a layman, anyway (BTC losing another $5 now would truly suck, too)

Charts are great for helping determine whether a trend is still in progress.  That's their main use.  They are lagging indicators, but if used properly can be great ones for fine tuning your trades assuming a higher likelyhood of continued trading range, bull or bear trends.  So far charting has been 100% correct in confirming continuation of bitcoin trends (both bull and currently bear).

There are a few predictive indicators, but they don't go predictably enough to trade from all the time.

Yeah - but what to do now when the two main trends are in conflict?

Intuition... and Chodpaba's charts help confirm my intuition. ;)

That's utter nonsense. In June, based on charts, I predicted the price of bitcoin would be $200 by now, and... oh... I see what you mean.

Now why would anyone even bother to raise that necrothread?

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.

On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.

Using this analogy, if bitcoin is taking the place of the internet and miners are the dotcoms, then many miners will likely quit at the 10% level. The internet itself did not die after the dotcom bubble. Bitcoin is too good an idea, like the internet, to die.

Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

Only thing that can really stop this is a blow to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, which are legality and technical reliability. As long as those are in good shape we will very, very likely see Bitcoin grow as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. And this will also mean that the price will eventually recover, big time.

On another note, I don't really think the last bubble was the biggest bubble yet. It was the biggest bubble so far, but it's only the first real hype wave. As long as the fundamentals stay strong we're bound to have a larger hype wave eventually. Bitcoin is still relatively unknown even though there has been coverage. It's not the same as "the dotcom bubble" because everyone knew about Internet companies at the time.

But the success of Bitcoin won't come by itself. It requires that people continue to build the infrastructure, and that it stays legal and the cryptography stays solid. It also requires that Bitcoiners start marketing it more heavily. If people don't know about it or how it can help them, it's not going to spread. This is why projects such as the Wall St. marketing project are actually really important.

I know that, personally, I've been looking for a store of value that isn't precious metals. That ship has definitely sailed. I'm also a pseudo-Libertarian nerd, so of course Bitcoin is a natural fit for me.

Seeing more and more tools trickle out that bring Bitcoin to the layperson, I do not believe its niche-dom will last long. I give it two years before Bitcoin is a household name. Not to say everyone will use them, but they will all know what it is.

Easy, you switch your strategy from trading direction to trading volatility.   We have a MASSIVE pennant hanging on the multi-month bitcoin chart, if this were a real, optionable stock I'd be looking into long straddle positions.

Unfortunately I can't do that with bitcoin, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn.  I have my suspicions which way the direction is going to move but I want them confirmed before I do anything.

Since I'm mostly a trader it doesn't matter to me if I miss a $10 one day rise (or $2 one day drop), I'm in this for the price movement.  It would be nice if we went bull rather than bear (my trading is hedged by mining), but I for one am more than fine either way.

Hey, Bank of America just instituted $5 debit card fees.

3) Profit.

The Dotcom bubble recovered?  When did that happen?  I recall the vast majority of dotcoms either racing towards IPOs with dubious business plans and subsequently crashing, or not getting to the sacred IPO and burning up all their capital.

The dotcom bubble was replaced by another bubble created by ultra cheap debt: the housing bubble.  But the dotcom bubble itself burst and never recovered, save for a few online businesses that were successful even before the bubble.

If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.

where is the recovery in the nasdaq? we have just seen a dead cat bounce before we see low triple digits in the next years.

But there is no correlation with bitcoin which is still in an uptrend. The nasdaq, however, is not in an uptrend any more.

http://imghaven.com/images/23856/ndx20110930.png (http://imghaven.com/images/23856/ndx20110930.png)

You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

If that's a dead cat bounce it must be an undead cat  ;D
Why was the recent high above the high in 08? Doesn't make sense...

Also if you plot the chart from an earlier period to today and not start at the short period of hyperbolic movement the bubble suddenly looks way less impressive, on the logarithmic chart not even like a bubble at all.




But lets screw trend predictions, they aren't that useful in the current state of the world economy anyway.
As for bitcoin i would say we have a 50/50 chance that we seriously test the longterm trend now. If popularity continues to decline for the next month this is even likely. But not for long the next hype cycle will be coming next year...

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  :D lol lol  :D

now who's gonna bail us out?

Flooz, Beanz and E-gold.

The next time BoA fails, USA will print more money, making your money worth less. lol

If the USA prints more money then my money will be worth more.  Not everyone on this forum lives in the USA.

I am still correct.

You have got so much ever left, it's not even funny.

And the price continues to fall...

You still here ...

I'll stop posting when the price hits $20.

How can I get your crash preparation kit. I've been scammed by the 7 Japanese scammers ( Satoshi = ArtForz = kano = SAC = lolcust = BitcoinExpress = MtGox ). Thanks !

If you didn't buy the BTC Crash Preparation Kit, it's too late.  Sold out.  I can only sell my personal Kit that I purchased and you'll have to talk me into that.

It's called a noose and he'll need it :)

Sold out? It's a physical item? Like something you'd carry in your car?

Couldn't help myself necro'ing this thread ... since the OP did use the word 'never' ... :)
He stopped posting ...
Meanwhile $12.40 [gox]
I wonder how long until $20 :D

So ... did anyone buy it and ... waste their money?

Why didn't you wait until we are there to bump it?  ???

Coz the OP also was expecting BTC to crash and die ... now it's back better than it was when he started the thread :P
i.e. the 'better than it was before' is what made me think of it

Edit: though the most amusing thing is his sig now :)

Name:    BTC Economist
Posts:    190
Position:    Full Member
Date Registered:    June 18, 2011, 05:38:11 PM
Last Active:    November 19, 2011, 03:49:30 AM

Probably sold all his/her coins at close to 2$ out of pure despair, as the price was heading nowhere back then [cursed Bitcoinica being the major cause btw].

Good for us, bad for the fella i guess.

Now someone is far too happy to own those cheap coins, and our beloved long lost member "BTC Economist" can bash that head against the closest possible wall, until it rips open. This is the nature of a typical human...ignorance and pure stupidity.

That looks more like he was getting zoutounged at the bottom while shorting bitcoin. I did ragequit after a similar incident myself for a while. But it probably was much worse for this guy...

He still has 1 mBTC left  :)

https://blockchain.info/address/17JzkreEBYNHQM9tMTiUKCHANofwzHRLhP (https://blockchain.info/address/17JzkreEBYNHQM9tMTiUKCHANofwzHRLhP)

Bubbles never slow down, do they?  If it took a month for the price to go $5 -> $12, then it should hit $20 in under a month.  I'm looking forward to it, I spent $100 on bitcoins when they were at $20 in the last bubble.  I was actually trying to buy at $10, but with the Dwolla and MtGox transfer time it had already hit $20.

And you never sold them to buy back lower when price was heading south so fast? That is impressive.  :o

It took 3 months to go from $5 USD to $12 USD.

so much for the grandiose title of  "BTC Economist"

lol, no worse than a wall street economist. They think rallies never end.

Yeah, Mt. Gox was hacked soon after, and I couldn't access the account for a month.  Gives me  hope that Intersango will make it, if they hire some people and change management.  I didn't need to $25 so bad, figured there would be another bubble eventually.  I've got a sell order of 2.5 BTC @ $40 each, if we are in another bubble I'll break even and have some coins left over :)

You're right, it took more than a month... I'd been checking the price every couple days on http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png didn't realize how much time has passed!

So ... anyway ... closest it's been yet was in the last 24 hours :)
Gox Last: $16.34857 High: $19.18999 Low: $15.38613

There are always people more impatient than me....

19.20 is the new 7.20

Plan accordingly :D

Keep in mind the time of this original post was right after the huge crash in 2011 where everyone was saying Bitcoin was done for. It echoes the sentiment of the time.

Or, instead of making up excuses for the OP, check the reality of what he said ... (in reply to my post in the post after)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.msg415431#msg415431

Edit: and these two comparatively interesting posts :)
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.msg580099#msg580099
and
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.msg1101237#msg1101237

This poor guy has missed the greatest opportunity that one may not encounter in the whole life

The only people who thought bitcoin was done for, were those only in it for the profit and not informed enough to understand bitcoin's significance.

The price of bitcoins does not matter for bitcoin the protocol.

I remember those "dark months" after the bubble, where nearly everyone on the forum was spouting the most negative crap. I think people who didn't understand this thing lost a lot of money, and wanted to make the community feel bad about it.

Those of us who stuck through it were the ones who took their profit.  From weak hands to strong. This capital is too important to be in the hands of those who don't understand the potential of this system.

Remember when every other thread was about bitcoins imminent demise? My fav was the one predicting sub-0 prices.

I initially bought in at $14 after the high (i didn't understand the idea of correction at that point, but from the start I understood the fundamental idea of Bitcoin and stayed with it) - I sold out at about $7 due to cowardice, but I still believed and waited for some positive signs and bought back in more substantially at around $3.
I suspect every newbie goes through this at the price point they first buy into  - belief, hope, despair, hope, belief.
Bitcoin is a baptism of fire.

At least we've put the despair part behind us.

The title of this thread probably won't be proven wrong by the OPs 2 year birthday.  If that ends up being the case, that's a pretty big bummer that a full 2 years after the big crash this market will not have been able to recover to 2/3rds of its all-time price high.  The reality is, unfortunately, bearing out that the rest of the world doesn't exactly think this project is as cool as most people around here do and I think that says something unsettling about bitcoin's future.  Sure, it's something that the market cap has made it to those levels, but that's mostly because of inflation and people just holding their coins and not added economic activity or more investor money.

FWIW, I find myself using bitcoin more and more these days because I might as well use it and use the value I've managed to accumulate while I can.  So, I'm doing my part, but, as has been the case pretty much since the big crash and all the hacks, I'm still not feeling very confident about bitcoin's future.  Still fun though.

And... the bear is back!  Can't help but to see a dismal outlook despite the many indicators of strong growth.

Proudhon: Where is your podcast!?
Im feeling too happy right now and need something to calm me down and cry a little. Cant you help me?

Proudhon is one of the most sensible posters on this forum.

Easy +1 .

Proudhon continues to be a troll bear till this day :D.

Proudhon what investment do you know of that grows 288% in one year?

EDIT: and it has not been 3 years yet... We are in JANUARY. June would be 3 years....

Yeah, that doesnt make BTC sound better...it makes it sound like an overly risky investment in a bubble.

...which actually is a pretty fair assesment of BTC.

I appreciate him for his fidelity. He is not just another lemming waiting for an eagle to get him off the ground. :D And I think a lot of people with similar sentiment are out there (not only Bitcoin, but other places where people try to store value).


So alot of PR work still needs to be done, no wait I mean time will tell. Isn't it just normal that people lose their faith after catastrophic incidents like in June'11? You can't expect people to use or trust Bitcoin if it changes conditions like a student in Hogwarts on crack. The protocol doesn't care about the price, but why was it created for again? I don't consider Bitcoins usage too geeky, but for the most people it definitively still is something magical they don't even bother trying to understand at its core. So many contrasts in this community, I can only honor.

PR work? While I admire the businesses out there proselytizing the virtues of Bitcoin, ultimately it will be the success of businesses that draws public interest. The incident in 2011 was a paradigm shift for the folks that don't understand Bitcoin, it was one of many to come. As far as lemmings and eagles go, I think one of them nearly did go extinct. Honor if a fine sentiment, but it must be earned.

Ja, PR was the wrong word. For my part I like the volatility, just for the thrill. But thats not good at all, less volatility would probably encourage more peolple to store some savings in BTC because they might think BTC could be worth more than gold sometime, like I do. Every super rich kid and some early adopters, have the power to crash or pump it. 200 mio market cap is a joke when it comes to stability. That is what I mean with time will tell.

I have, but a newbie who bought at $18 2 days ago may feel differently. It's very likely that for many people their first experience of bitcoin is negative (at least for a few days).
Most of us are not natural speculators and to be thrown into the world of speculation can be a shock.

this is why i coach patience.

They feel a little better now, still 10% from $20 mark.
This thread will be resurrected one the mark is passed, but I guess it take a little patience to get to that point

Gosh, it could be *days*! /impatient

:-)

Ente

You want to make a bet on bitcoin never reaching $20 again ?  ;D

I'm pretty sure he's long gone. Last post of his was over a year ago...

$20 probably would have a fight and even a correction. Not a easy reach, so I'd say weeks.

Heck no!  Days it is !

And today that newbie would be happy :)
(If they hadn't sold them yet)

You think he's dead? What sad news! R.I.P!!!

It may not quite make 20 but tonight I'm gonna party like it's $19.99.

Oh, thanks for reminding me  ;D http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yB5Dh4F7Es

I lol'd

so how many minutes until "never" ends? :) it looks like today is the end of this topic.

we're still about $150,000 away. it actually looks like today is the end of this bull run...

Don't be silly, it cannot collapse before breaking 20. Don't know if it can be sustained above 20, though we are getting excellent press recently, so I can see the rate rising.

Officially get above 20

Knock, knock, knocking on $20's door.  $19.98998. 

Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

We got it!

Yes!

I am filling my pants

Quadrupled since a year ago. Lovin' it!

Sooo.. bitcoin reached $20 again

20 dollars each now, a little over..!

I guess we can retired this thread now, after all the "told you so" have been chimed in.

Yeah, finally this Zombie should RIP and no more necromancing.

I am just now waiting for the stories about bought at 32, sold at 40! :)  The purchase being at the summer bubble high. haha.

There is just one thing I don't understand: OP is an economist, and he didn't get it right?  ???  
 
:D

lol @ OP

 ;D

UTC +11

ozbot in #cgminer

31-Jan-2013 19:52 < ozbot> Gox  | Buy: $19.9999 Sell: $19.99999 Last: $19.9999 High: $19.99999 Low: $19.15
31-Jan-2013 19:53 < ozbot> Gox  | Buy: $19.99993 Sell: $20 Last: $20 High: $20 Low: $19.15

Just for the record :)

No doubt the MtGox log would show the specific time and exchange that first hit $20, but anyway - yep a bit over half an hour ago.

Edit: and in case anyone was wondering ... it's kept going ...

31-Jan-2013 20:31 < ozbot> Gox  | Buy: $20.12103 Sell: $20.19 Last: $20.12103 High: $20.39999 Low: $19.19

If you look way back at the beginning of this thread you'll see just how much I didn't like this guy.   ;)

I still don't like him.  ;)

He was right about one thing though.  It did get back below $5.

Just another buying opportunity.

I wonder if there's demand from those who want in on Avalon's 2nd batch? Avalon are only taking bitcoin. Could be driving the price over $20.

bingo

If my guess is correct, then watch the price crash back below $20 just after 9am EST once the btc trades hands.

Did I hear my name?

He changed his signature:
"When BTC soars, you need to be READY!  PM me to learn more about my new e-book, How to Create and Profit from the Second Bitcoin Bubble available exclusively to BTC forum members!"




http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mdpjbnK8pL1ql68mpo1_500.gif

and: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL0Qt7IF8Q4&feature=youtu.be&t=23s

Now that BTC is over 20 I hope it will never "reach" that price again.

This post was wrong!!! I can't F-ing believe it! My confidence in the internet has been shaken to the core.  :-[

Someone start a "Bitcoin will never reach $30 again" thread.

Should be Proudhon... especially if we want to reach 30 before the end of the week  ;D

I'll wait for "BTC Economist" to start a thread "Bitcoin will never go below $20 again", he's been waiting two years :D

As whatever he posts reflects the current sentiment, with an added timeframe of never, that should be right.

If not now, when? If not me, who?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140301.0

Welcome to

$21

Okay so where is this guy BTC Economist? He's proven himself to be a complete fucking imbecile. He hasn't been online since November 18, 2011. I think he's a moron sock puppet and "BTC Economist" is just one of his many forum accounts.

We should beat his ass to improve the gene pool.

I like to see people lose money because their rationality is suspended.  They either A) Learn a great lesson that will improve their future lives and decisions or B) Continue pouring money into the BTC economy because of crass ignorance.

"beat his ass" would not improve the gene pool. 

Demand......................................................................... .....................Supply

http://i45.tinypic.com/nphmk3.jpg

That is all it takes.

Lookin at $21.36USD right now. Woohooo!

I just wish BTC Economist, whoever he is, bought in at $20 and sold everything at $7 (around the time this prediction was made).

I also wish he'd buy in now and sell everything at the next crash. Would be funny.

+1
buying a breakout as we are seeing it now, might indeed be better than trying to anticipate the top..

I am actually  interested in what kind of a person the OP maybe. Many of the things he said makes completely no sense at all.

What? It reached $20 again, again?

Don't people realize that there are trolls on this forum that want Bitcoin to fail and just post here to spread FUD?

FTFY

bump

Well played sir. OP can now start a thread

Bitcoin will never reach $20 $200 again

I, for one, completely support the statement made by the title of this thread!

I hope by now the Title of this thread actually is true.

*Necrobumping because I'm just in the mood and this thread is hilarious by now.

Yeah, it was already hilarious when it was just posted, now it's pure bitcoin history gold. "How to make an ass out of yourself using the words Bitcoin and Never in the same sentence".

Does Bitcoin Economist write for Wired by any chance?   :D

It will be less than $20 some day. You are a couple negative catalysts away.

Quoted for future reference.

Maybe he is Joe Weisenthal of businessinsiider.com
http://www.businessinsider.com/author/joe-weisenthal

In times of panic, it's always worth it to bump threads like this.
You will be OP in a few years, when you say now "BTC will never reach X price".
This is a revolution, with lots of up and down storms in between. The weak will not make it. Enjoy the ride for those that stay.

You have to be fair, IF OP bought back later that year he definately didn't do bad, I didn't read the whole thread tho

Chart from june 2011 to december 2011:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-12-31&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

this struck me then and it strikes me now!

And if HOLD even if he didn't sell on the 2013 peak, he would still have a shitton of purchasing power.
And if he holds for 5 more years, he'll be on a winning position again (even if he doesn't sell in the midst of future bubbles).

damn where have the days of double digits gone lol :P but the days of 4 digits may hit us soon with the current floor being reached :D

how do you know the floor is reached? just because it is going up a few bucks? we're struggling to stay above $300 and you think soon we'll see +$1000 sounds more like a fantasy to me.

Just found this thread and seems like it's a good time to bump it again. Let's learn our lesson here. farting_shot will be OP in the future, including the account being abandoned to not face the shame.

are you sure man?

It always has a habit of going 300ish then going back down to high 200ish, then lowers it self to mid 200ish.

And this is a frame of 2 months of me checking it one time per week. lolll

you gotta understand all those mt.gox deposits were paying another customers pocket.

and he acted more of a higher scale of a ponzi until he couldnt match the other deposits since he paid himself on getting a "car". so all that information on TA with that exchange is all garbage.

Its gone forever.

The days of double digits wont ever be back. Its the road as you mentioned with 4 digits eventually hopfully soon. But I like to see measurable realsitic price points which at max I think bitcoin can go to 400 at most. Unless there is a overwhelming growth from somewhere.

You were wrong lol.

You don't need a Tardis... (and I should know) make a Paper BTC Wallet, drop BTC 1.01 into it and put in a safe place.

Right now (6/8/2015) http://preev.com/ says $300 USD is = BTC 1.054

(The 0.01 is to cover transaction fees later BTW)

EDIT: My Paper Wallet: 1AZnM7fZ585Vr6p68vwCJMPoQt7662R2Mo (It's a work in progress)  ;D **Rattle** *Rattle**  ::)

Daily reminder for the panic selling idiots. You = OP in the future if you panic sell. That's how it goes. Don't say later not enough people warned you.

Lol....thread from 2011 saying bitcoin will never reach $20 Again...$267 now. Pretty funny.

$1100 in 2013 is even more funny.

but we are entering the second year of bear market, things never looked so dull in all past bitcoin story

Ouch, when I first see this thread, I think of it saying 'Bitcoin will not DROP below $20 again', and it makes sense. However it is just an old thread... Anyway, these old threads stating BTC price was low are legends.

 ;D ;D ;D Ironically, it is true that bitcoin will never reach $20 again! Albeit for the opposite reason the OP intended!  ;D ;D ;D

I hope the ebook he is promoting in his sig is more insightful than this post was. ...

I dunno, it was a pretty good post. He seems to have timed it perfectly (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2011-06-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSza1gEMAzm1g200za2gEMAzm2g365zi1gRSIzi2gADXzi3gAroonzi4gMACDzpszl): after his post there were 18 months where BTC stagnated. It wasn't until February 2013 before there was any upside on July 2011.

Haha too true. We've all made bad predictions though. I remember mocking bears & saying we wouldn't go below 300 USD around January 2015. I ended up looking like an idiot. Hopefully things start to pick up soon because the current price is pretty depressing imo.

By december i think price will be around 600$, the financial crash of september is pretty predictable, alot of theories come out that support that.

If it hits then it will reach 600 or even more, who knows! But i`m confident that bitcoin is on the right path!

This is a very long term race. Look at any all time graph of a successful asset. The price will show initial pumps with lowtrends that can last years until it starts climbing up back again reaching never before seen prices. The thing is, MOST people will be panic buying in the meantime, the winners at the top of the mountain are only a few, this is a law of life that always repeat itself, just like the super early investors can only be a few.

This can be a possible scenario, if the new exchange launches before 2016 with gemini adding more volume to the space.

But it takes more then just creating a exchange, there needs to be new source of volume of buyers outside from the existing ones. Unless they someone how bring a couple new whales take chances on their exchange.

Oh i guarantee you the gemini will bring alot of new guys into the game, i mean a regulated exchange is like honey to the wallstreet whales.

I think alot of whales will come, perhaps not all of them are buyers, maybe some market manipulation will happen too, but the bigger the volume, the more safe the currency becomes and then alteast merchants will be more willing to use it.

It all ties in, and the bitcoin economy will grow.

Bitcoin came to $20?  ???

When and how did this happen?

January 2011 (first time) and February 2013 (the "again" that the title suggested would never occur). This is a very old thread.

Ack!
Ick!
Necro Zombie Thread Ressurection!

 Heck with the barbie guns, give me an M60 so I can KILL IT DEAD!

 9-)

Whenever I see the word "NEVER," I immediately think "Holy shit, bitcoin WILL!" We WILL see $20 again, thanks to the these dipshits who post dipshit things like this.

And you're right - we did see $20 again. I hope the OP bought back in sometime between their July 2011 post and February 2013, when we saw 20 again.

It depends on the order book depth. If somebody has thousands of bitocin, he can push the price down to $10. It might be sustainable though.

really interesting thread. had a good time reading all the trolls  ;D ;D

yeah Bitcoin will never reach $20 again, if this happens I think this is the destruction of bitcoin.

If the bitcoin price drops below $150 (the cost of efficient mining farms) for a few weeks, it mean the total destruction of bitcoin.

Not really, It just means more people would jump back onto the mining wagon since the difficulty will be much lower.

OP, you missed two extra zeros, the price will not reach of course $20, unless it crashes totally and the price will go up to $0

Why this kind of prediction dude. Actually bitcoin price is increasing day by day. today I saw the zigzag But now rate again pumping and moving to good value Now today 436$. :). raising face only We can see no destruction and all.

The OP was a long, long time ago! They were incorrect - price did reach $20 again, back in 2013.

Not necessarily. It could also be caused by a flash crash on an exchange with a very thin order book. That's why people tend to place buy orders on various very low price levels. If something like a flash crash will happen, then they hugely benefit from it as the price will recover very fast after that. It's easy profit. It only takes a very long time before a flash crash will push down the price to below $100 prices.

But flash crashes due to thin order books are something completely different than reaching 20 USD again. Reaching a value like that again, suggests stable trading in that range, not touching briefly by buying out all orders which is instantly fixed by buy orders shooting back to near the orignial value.

I hope that the price will not reached ever the price of $20 again, i am optimistic that the price will reach by $500 this month.

It's not realistic to expect the price to go down to $20, and it will most likely never happen anymore, unless Bitcoin gets replaced by something better, or simply because it failed. The flash crash scenario is realistic and can happen at any time.

lol of course the price bitcoin will never touch the $ 20 again it was just a joke. $500 at the end of the year I am very confident.

Hope your prediction is coming true, we need to carefully because too many people talk price will touch $500.

Why we need to bother about $20, there are no possibilities for $200 itself for any more.
Bitcoin never sustained below $200 in 2015. Same way there will not be any chances for testing of below $300 levels also, not possible with up coming events. We are moving forward for a new historic high prices. Wait and enjoy.

Well I think you are so wrong and maybe you are just trolling too, but we won't see a 200 dollar worth of bitcoin I think.
And why even say that we if we go to the future, I bet that bitcoin will increase even more.

They weren't trolling. At the time of their post, BTC/USD was below 20, and would remain there for over a year, until 2013. Check the date - you're replying to a very, very old OP. This is a necrothread.

I wouldn't mind if this were to happen, it would give me a chance to bulk in. I don't think it will happen again though. Something big has to happen for bitcoin to go back down like that.

Well I wish I started to know bitcoin in 2013 20 dollar for a bitcoin I would have bought it.
If I knew that it will increase like this.

Come on guys, he is a BTC economist. You need to do what the experts say!!!

July 09, 2011

Oh I didn't see that it was in 2011 I only see that is today.
I didn't spect that it would be that long. If I may ask what is necrothread? I know what yo mean, but what is it.

It's a reference to necromancy, the raising of the dead! (Sorry, I've watched way too much Lord of the Rings and zombie films recently...!)

It has been passed almost 5 years since his post but things have been changed and maybe we can say bitcoin will never reach $200 again.

Lol I thought this was a new thread, but it's great to see what people were talking about in 2011 and how wrong this guy's views were. Having said that, Bitcoin certainly could drop to $20. stranger things have happened.

So the OP liquidated his bitcoins at $20. I wonder how he feels now ?........supposing he's not jumped of a bridge!
Just hodl guys! Imagine where we are gonna be in a few short years 😆

Well it was in 2011. The price back then was 20 usd and it was the top price at the moment.
https://bitcoinhelp.net/know/more/price-chart-history
I think a lot of us whould have done the same...

Some of think the price will rise in the future and will not sell any in the foreseeable future. The price just started rising.

yes I agree. Bitcoin has grown a lot in the last year.
From $200 to a good standing for a month long at around $400.

That is just 100% true I will tell you we won see a 200 dollar this year I think.
I am seeing that bitcoin is kinda stable price for now. Is not dropping or going to high.
The price is good just need to wait for halving.

I do not believe that if the price of bitcoin be $ 20 for 1 BTC, it would be very boring, maybe everyone will leave bitcoin, I think it is a number that is meaningless on the Internet  :(

Always a great to pump. Ouch, it still feels bad reading OP, he couldn't handle the shame of his failed prediction and has never signed back since then. I wonder if when the failed predictions of doom like kwuckduck never happen, they will face the shame of being wrong or they will leave too? We'll see.

The bitcoin will reach $20 when there is no consensus between the bitcoin community and there are hard forks of bitcoin and 2 bitcoin exist, one of them reach reach $20 or lower.

You are right. As 1 BTC is $ 20 dollars, then indeed less people do bitcoin.

But I think the chance is small since it is becoming increasingly popular.

I read somewhere that the Core team will implement larger block size by April this year. So it will not be a big problem.

it can literally take more than a year if everything goes as slow as things are right now. but if there is an agreement reached and the larger blocks are implemented, then i am quite sure it will give the bitcoin price a huge boost. that plus the comming block halving will definitely cause the price to peak somewhere this year. but then there must be a block size increase being implemented THIS year.

It's funny to see how some people don't read the thread and go straight into an ignorant reply, talking as if OP had posted this just yesterday. As for what had happened, back in 2011 when the price was at $20 people would have been inclined to sell. Imagine at this time if the price went up to $500, or $600. We would be inclined to sell our Bitcoins, just as much as OP. However, since the community now has developed, our views on Bitcoins are a bit more concrete and the number of people with bearish interests has dwindled since its time in 2011. Suffice to say, a smaller majority of people had high hopes back then, but of course, they weren't in the 1000s range.

Suppose the price does reach $1000 again. Would you sell, like OP? Or would you continue holding? If you had a lot of faith in Bitcoin, you would hold the coins, but I'm assuming that most would sell at least some of their coins. OP's decision wasn't that hard to understand.

I think so, indeed. Bitcoin now has quite a low price and that's going to change it, I think.
Because I think it's worth much more later and that many people profit.

thats true, bitcoin will start only growing and nothing else, i hope that it will be the future of all currencies

I agree on that. The price going down this low would mean it have failed.
Don't expect it to go this low

I think it depends on us, the users... Because we are usin it, its going high... If we totally stop using it, it may vanish...
It is just my opinion...a

Lol, guys, this thread is from 2011! Of course it won't go back to $20 anymore. What's so hard about reading the OP before you guys comment.

Now that's what I call a blast from the past ... ! Bitcoin reached $20 in july 2011 but plummeted to below $3 in the final months of that year. During 2012, price rose very slowly from $4-6 in the first months to $13 in december. Who could have guessed back then that prices would absolutely go nuts in the following twelve months? Kinda puts the current bearish sentiment in a new light ...

This would be great if it is possible!
I don't know what must happen in the world to see 20$ again?!
Maybe some mad whale lose control over his bot?!
https://natefakes.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/bod150221.gif?w=490

One whale with his bots couldn't make it nowhere even near to 20$ :D

Who know everything is possible one crazy bot + panic
= massive dump without real cause.
Price can recover in a seconds so many traders won't ever realize this if happens?

Well I guess flash crash to 20$ for 1 second could happen in some small exchange if someone accidentally sells $5 million worth btc :D
But I thought you were talking about real prize.

To be honest we will never see this price again!
Maybe 300$ but this is also very hard now..

It's good to see that people didn't change in 5 years.
Everyone's speculating, everyone's "very smart", but finally nobody knows what will happen.

Crazy to see this old post.  I was nowhere near in 2011, head still in the sand.  Interesting to read everyone's reaction and how much has not changed.  I think at this point we will never see the 200's again.  10x the amount 5 years later, does this mean in 5 years we can expect 10x 375.00? 

This thread is why I am still confident in bitcoin. Sure, its been dropping a lot, but only time can tell. :)

I think indeed that's never going to happen. I also think it does not concern decrease but rather increase. The price is in fact now also gradually on the rise rather than fall.
So I think it will never happen.

I do not think it's going to happen anyway viz. Because Bitcoin is in fact now a low price.
And I think that now it is rising gradually.

I honestly think that people think negatively about Bitcoin because it now has a quite low price. Because he is now very low.
But I think it's going to be worth more later because we need to wait patiently.

BTC may reach 20$ again. Everything is possible.

I think indeed. Because the price is already very low, however, and he is starting to rise again gradually. So I do not think it can happen.
But I'm also not sure it can namely go all wrong. You never know what can happen.

So original poster was talking about a time in which bitcoin was sub-20$ and did not expect it to come back to 20$... that is hilarious.

I do not think that could happen. bitcoin is already quite low and I think that later is going to be worth a lot more rather than less worthy.
But it is difficult to predict but I think it will rise.

$20 will never reach $20 again.  ;D

Yes it won'y reach the value $20 anymore.                           
In future we can consider $350 to be the lowest price of bitcoin.
Now also the value is near 350$ but won' go sub 350$

I guess it is good to sometimes look back at these old threads when you doubt the future of bitcoin. Grab the charts with it and see how "bad" it looked back than and where bitcoin has gotten since.

Swings and sideways movements will always be part of it, it can't always be about going up weeks and months in a row.

I think it will not go lower. I just think it is going to rise even though it has a very low value now. Many people are there now and think negatively about Bitcoin is very bad stuff.
But you have really just need patience.

Two-digit prices seem to be very far-fetched as of the current times, seeing that different infrastructures and businesses are already built around bitcoin. Even if it fall to a hundred dollars a piece, it would easily rebound back up due to many investors relying on it to profit.

Probably 4-digits first before (if ever) going into double digits again

Not sure if you read the op or not but it was a long time ago.
It was not a doom crashing thread but doubting the extent that it would rise again.
I feel kinda sorry for the guy he sold all and then watched over the next couple of years as his coin would have made him a millionaire lol
If it fell to $100 there would be good reason behind that and I would not be so sure that it would be bouncing back.
Only a broken BC could bring the two digit again.

Yeah, it won't go that lower in future again, but there are possibilities that it might again fall to $250 in near future, totally depends on the adoption level of new users getting into it.

of course it wont, from 420$ to 20$, not logical in any way, well it could happen, but  i don't think that everyone will sell bitcoins at once

It will go to $5000 before go to $20. As long as bitcoin is accepted by general public, the price will rise.

Yeah and that simply impossible that it would fall that low, and if it does it means that's an end of bitcoin revolution and bitcoin would simply disappear.

Yes and if reaches to that value it means that's an end of bitcoin revolution, and people who invested at higher price and didn't sell at a right time would regret for entire life.

Of course it wont reach that. And it will also not be good. If you have a good look you can see that the value is slowly rising now.
And that is very good. It is perfect for those people who has made an investment earlier.

Yeah, thing as popular as bitcoin can't die, if it would go to 20$ it would be dead,  in fact price if it will grow more and more, won't drop down

If this happens, then all of us would then be dead! This is a big joke. Bitcoin will stay here for long, and if you think about it, it's actually true that if it drops to 20, it's good as dead..

Bitcoin will never reach 20 and that will be also not good for us that have Bitcoin. If you can see you see that the price is rising.
But you never know what can happen later in the future. It can be also fall down and that wont be very good.

never say never..
Remember that it is all relative, as it is the ratio to the USD. if USD rises a lot 20$ are possible. Or, bitcoin prices may crash big time again in some point.
Never say never.

I don't think that people will be so dumb, and will sell all of their bitcoins so price will go to 20$ only,if price will be around 100$ they should stop selling them

Yes, I think that would end the life of bitcoin, if the price falls that low, and people would stop believing in bitcoins for sure, and when it comes to bitcoin anything is possible.