Bitcoin Forum

I think BTC will go the way of AAPL (http://www.shareprice.co.uk/NASDAQ:AAPL/APPLE-INC), what do you think?

Who cares about "apple"?

What's Apple's market cap?

330 billion $

I see holding BTC like holding a share in a popular, fast growing company. Obvious similarities and exponential growth witnessed in both BTC and AAPL. You can buy a share in BTC for less than $1 whereas in AAPL each share is gonna cost ~$350. I'm obviously hoping Bitcoin goes in the $350 a coin direction.

10 Points

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Buying_bitcoins

Since crapple makes shit and convinces its victims that they got something special (Stockholm syndrome), I don't like that comparison.

(Ironically I am typing this on my girlfriend's Mac, because she borrowed by Linux-Thinkpad to get some work done.)

Bitcoin is a superior investment to Apple in at least two ways.
1. Apple shares can be (and have been) diluted.
2. Apple can get sued, fined and take on debt.

BTC is a better investment then AAPL???  I LOL'ed.   :D

The strategism of Bitcoin is very different from Apple.

It's more like being Android rather than being Apple.

All depends on  what price you got in at.  Bitcoin has massively outperformed Apple this year.

bitcoin has massively outperformed EVERYTHING this year.

Yeah, I don't really understand what you're getting at here, OP.

Many, many, many companies have experienced healthy gains in recent years.

Enlighten us on your thought process here.

Anyone who bought bitcoins in the last two years until a month ago has seen MASSIVE returns on their HIGH RISK investment. Apple represents lower risk. Nothing about their respective price gains nor losses should be surprising. One is more volatile than the other. That's about all we can say about their appreciation.

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Apple is out there. All growth is already priced in. Bitcoin is an obscure product still in beta. Seeing the value in bitcoin requires awareness of its existence and above average knowledge of encryption and economics.  And bitcoin isn't dependent on a founder/CEO that's dying.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

Do you want me to draw you a picture?

BTC is not superior to Apple (and Apple is not superior to BTC).  BTC is a different category!

One is a stock, the other is an experimental currency.

Apple has huge merits, such as extreme profitability and the mother of all diversified cash piles held by a company.  They have more then $60 per share in just cash alone and more will be announced in two weeks.  Apple making more profits in phone and computer spaces then ALL of their competition combined.  

BitCoin has no real competition but it has adversaries that would make an Apple fanboy weep.

Apple is compared to Bitcoin a safe investment but Bitcoin has potential upsides that are impossible with Apple.  Apple will not and can not further multiply by 50, Bitcoin could (but probably wont).  

BTC behaves more like a stock than a currency IMO.

It is impossible to quantify these things.  But there are ways we can look at it.

one year from now:

OUTCOME	AAPL	BTC
100% loss	unlikely	possible
similar value	likely	possible
2x value	possible	possible
10x value	unlikely	unlikely

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

Or Bitcoin is successfull. Then the value of one BTC must rise at least to the tens of thousands of US dollars.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

Some other genius can come out with a new crytocurrency. Most people on this forum at least are willing to try something new. Maybe in the next five years a new bitcoin competitor comes out. Also with bitcoin most likely not upgrading to SHA-3 then there is a pretty high possibility that it gets cracked.

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

Ok, well given it's not even in the mainstream now then I doubt it would result in a "100% loss" if that happened. I dunno... I just think there is a strong possibility that the BTC/$ chart will resemble the AAPL/$ chart.  ???

Well is there anything else to compare BTC with? The stock market? Oil prices? The poker boom? House prices? I'm just trying to think of a way to predict the future by looking at the past...

It doesn't have to go mainstream. 0.1% of international transactions would increase the dollar price of 1BTC to four digits.

A tiny fraction of tax evaders, drug dealers and anti-banksters could easily do that.   Considering how unpopular the Banksters are in Europe right now, I would be surprised if it didn't gain at least some traction.

Rare earth metal are the only thing remotely giving returns comparable to Bitcoin in the past year. Unfortunately for REM speculators, The Japanese just found a vast supply of said metals on the ocean seabed.

Not specifically. I'd just like you to answer my and Peter Lambert's questions.

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

Yes, please do.


Perhaps if you look at past history, that more than x% of all y consecutive months have gone up z time.

I don't know what numbers were used, but here are some x=50%, y=3, z=10.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

Very similar to (shape wise): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=aapl#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

L-O-L

LESS THAN 50%. that's anywhere from 0.00000001% to 49.99999999%. A wide margin. It's not my fault you suck at reading comprehension. 

10% vs 2200% growth per month? Only the slope of a tabletop to a wall would be more dissimilar (shape wise). It'd say that the graphs are more comparable to the treacherous slopes of OHIO vs the casual slopes of Mt EVEREST. If you didn't notice the logarithmic axis, perhaps this is more your style: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&r=300

Yeah i realised my post was a bit retarded but couldn't be arsed to change it. I know the axis are completely different. The point was that both lines skyrocketed. Meh.

Easy now, big guy.

I obviously made a reading-error, but that doesn't nullify the other points I made. You can't hide behind those with your caps lock and ad hominem.

Deepsea mining has to be 10x more costly than onshore extraction.

Mining difficulty is already priced in.

Price follows difficulty.

Thread successfully derailed.

Gold miners do not set the price of gold as much as the price of gold determines the profits of miners.

Consumable energy (rather than spent energy) has a value equal to the value an organism sets for its life (infinite?). Only competition keeps oil prices down. Neither statement can be said about bitcoins.

um, think youre forgetting one thing....APPL is not riddled with crimes and criminal types.

In the next 2-5 years BTC will likely be higher than AAPL in $terms.

Even if BTCUSD remains at 14$...!

Because the upcoming major stock market crash will bring back AAPL to the teens (and I love the Apple brand, have nothing against them, but consumers will not have the $'s left in their purse or credit to affort those high margin Apple products).

...and a new kind of fact-asserting crazy appears.

I'm not assigning expected values. I already said that the numbers were just there to illustrate the principle of a bet with an expectation of loss that is still worth making.

Thank you for explaining what expected value is. We all needed that.

Anyways, there is no possible way you can say with confidence that investing in Bitcoin at this stage has positive EV.

I'm confident that investing in Bitcoin at this stage has a positive EV.  You are refuted.

Certainly your guess as to how AAPL will respond to lower consumer purchasing power is as good as any. But both Greenspan and Bernanke hold the stock market darling with no regard for base M0 monetary inflationary policy. The lesson Keynesians learned from '29-39 was that contraction of the money supply was both cause and effect of the stock market collapse. The Fed is now buying assets with printed money to prevent both. No, the stock market won't deflate, the Fed will just claim commodity supplies are decreasing, naturally increasing prices on tangible necessities.

As much as people harp on the trolls, posts like the OP's are equally worthless.  No analysis, just another zomg I hope I get rich post.  If people are going to be called trolls for being negative without providing any sort of logic/argument, then I say the same should go for these types of posts.  What would be the equivalent of a troll?  An orc?

Hey OP, stop Orcing the forum.

Trawling can be contrasted with trolling, where baited fishing lines instead of trawl nets are drawn through the water.

I am happy to bet with you that the DJI will fall below 4000 by 2015, to underline that I am serious with my forecast.

No.  ::)

apple makes profit.

end of discussion.

Revenue is the name of the game.

The middle classes will have trouble affording food, energy, transportation, paying off debt (despite attractive loss in debt value), and very few will be able to afford fashionable consumer electronics. So AAPL will drop unless they start selling apples from trees or produce soft/hardware for the banks. But I posit that the Fed will continue monitary inflation combating stock market deflation while denying real price inflation. Unfortunately, I think they can keep that up for four more years, before everything traded in dollars collapses, but I'm certainly not betting on that timeline.

60% collapse by 2015, you say?

yes at least 60% drop.

My expectation is even  a 90% drop, but I am happy to bet on a 60% drop to start with.

To those who dont believe in deflation that is already underway since late 1999 should look at the DJI measured in gold.

What asset type are we wagering? Fiat currency or stocks? :)

Stock measured in fiat currencies will drop hard. That is what I would wager on. :-)

Does that mean you're bullish on PMs and commodities, S3052?

I would bet against you on AAPL because though most consumers are weak, luxury brands should fare better due to the growing inequality.

I am bearish or will turn bearish on PMs, commodities, stocks, almost all asset classes. The upcoming crash will be in line with the all the same market theory: Everything goes down together.

This drop will be unprecedented (i.e. much more severe than the 1929 crash) and hence AAPL will also get almost wiped out. The big guys will not fare so well to keep the inequality shift alive for long.

The only KING prevailing will be cash and hopefully bitcoins.

WAIT....wut?!?
 :-\

I really hope you were thinking Swiss Francs when you wrote that.

I agree with your statement. But currently the big difference is that apple has wide spread acceptance and bitcoin hasn't just yet.

Hey look it's Raw-retard's face!

Yes, currently holding CHF since 2-3 years.

But in the next days / weeks shifting to USD as this will have a major RALLY soon for 9-18 months. Believe it or not.

When I think of QE2, I don't think of cruise ships no more. If your technicals are stating USD rally, then this might be a case where the information from analysis in dire contrast to everyday information in the news.

When non-gold bugs are eying up gold, you'll forgive me for not expecting a rally. But if you've any food for thought on the subject, I would be interested to hear what you're thinking.

QE2 is done.  Assuming you're expecting a QE3?

I wouldn't bet on it either way, but mere mention has been enough to stir the markets and add to insecurities about the dollar.

This is exactly the case: It is a contrarian indicator. If all the mainstream news and newspapers write about that the dollar will collapse , it is very close to do the opposite.
I.e. see the chart for USDCHF. A typical tiring downtrend as evidenced by the wedge formation. Above the 0.835-0.84 zone is breakout to RALLY: http://bit.ly/mUI2oQ

The same with Gold which will also start a major correction soon. The first drop will happen in the next 7 days.

Interesting, I can see where you are coming from. But just to ask, in situations like this, do you ever see macro economic conditions impact on your analysis? e.g. For the correction in Gold to occur, wouldn't we expect to see the people who are using it as a hedge to release their holdings, but at this point in time I don't think there is enough confidence to do so.

The great thing with technical analysis is actually that all the fundamentals are priced in (current situation and expectations are already mirrored in the chart). That is why you can save a lot of time reading about news, fundamentals, etc. Just focus on the chart and then the next thing is trading accordingly and doing your money management.
I am not saying everyone has to do it that way and everyone will be successful, but for me it works brilliantly since many years and that is why I continue doing it that way.

I.e. for Gold, most people are already LONG gold and probably some big guys have already started to release their holdings (obviously without telling everybody). This is called "distribution phase": selling to the public, and typically the man on the street buys exactly at the top, where hedges funds, banks, other institutional investors have already dumped it..

It's time to sell gold now that prime time news in broadcasting the price of the metal. Three perfect falling bitcoin wedges in the last ten days and still no rally. Until the US markets collapse, I expect the dollar will be quite deflationary. Maybe the Fed will buy up real estate in southern Europe.

0.79 to 0.86 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDCHF=X&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=) from this morning's breakfast to high tea in Zurich (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/swiss-national-bank-sets-minimum-exchange-rate-of-1-20-against-the-euro.html).

Thanks for digging it up again, for me this was a champagne high tea :-) but the USDCHF party is not yet over.

Parity is possible in the next weeks and months.

Perhaps Zurich thought they could acquire cheap assets by executing the inevitable, but printing doth not a technical confirmation make.

necrobump :D

AAPLs and oranges.