Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares

[Littleshop]

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

It is impossible to quantify these things.  But there are ways we can look at it.

one year from now:

OUTCOME	AAPL	BTC
100% loss	unlikely	possible
similar value	likely	possible
2x value	possible	possible
10x value	unlikely	unlikely

[jack102938]

one year from now:

OUTCOME	AAPL	BTC
100% loss	unlikely	possible
similar value	likely	possible
2x value	possible	possible
10x value	unlikely	unlikely

OUTCOME	AAPL	BTC
100% loss	impossible	impossible
similar value	possible	possible
2x value	possible	possible
10x value	impossible	possible
100x value	impossible	possible

[bcearl]

OUTCOME	AAPL	BTC
100% loss	unlikely	possible
similar value	likely	possible
2x value	possible	possible
10x value	unlikely	unlikely

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

Or Bitcoin is successfull. Then the value of one BTC must rise at least to the tens of thousands of US dollars.

[jack102938]

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

[Vince Torres]

Some other genius can come out with a new crytocurrency. Most people on this forum at least are willing to try something new. Maybe in the next five years a new bitcoin competitor comes out. Also with bitcoin most likely not upgrading to SHA-3 then there is a pretty high possibility that it gets cracked.

[bcearl]

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

[jack102938]

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

Ok, well given it's not even in the mainstream now then I doubt it would result in a "100% loss" if that happened. I dunno... I just think there is a strong possibility that the BTC/$ chart will resemble the AAPL/$ chart. 

[jack102938]

Well is there anything else to compare BTC with? The stock market? Oil prices? The poker boom? House prices? I'm just trying to think of a way to predict the future by looking at the past...

[billyjoeallen]

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

It doesn't have to go mainstream. 0.1% of international transactions would increase the dollar price of 1BTC to four digits.

A tiny fraction of tax evaders, drug dealers and anti-banksters could easily do that.   Considering how unpopular the Banksters are in Europe right now, I would be surprised if it didn't gain at least some traction.

[billyjoeallen]

Well is there anything else to compare BTC with? The stock market? Oil prices? The poker boom? House prices? I'm just trying to think of a way to predict the future by looking at the past...

Rare earth metal are the only thing remotely giving returns comparable to Bitcoin in the past year. Unfortunately for REM speculators, The Japanese just found a vast supply of said metals on the ocean seabed.

[peach]

Is there some relationship that makes bitcoin similar to Apple, or are you just picking something that went up in price and hoping bitcoin does the same?

Yeah, I don't really understand what you're getting at here, OP.

Many, many, many companies have experienced healthy gains in recent years.

Enlighten us on your thought process here.

Do you want me to draw you a picture?

Not specifically. I'd just like you to answer my and Peter Lambert's questions.

[billyjoeallen]

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

[peach]

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

[netrin]

Do you want me to draw you a picture?

Yes, please do.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

Perhaps if you look at past history, that more than x% of all y consecutive months have gone up z time.

I don't know what numbers were used, but here are some x=50%, y=3, z=10.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

[jack102938]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

Very similar to (shape wise): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=aapl#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

[peach]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

Very similar to (shape wise): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=aapl#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

L-O-L

[billyjoeallen]

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

LESS THAN 50%. that's anywhere from 0.00000001% to 49.99999999%. A wide margin. It's not my fault you suck at reading comprehension. 

[netrin]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

Very similar to (shape wise): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=aapl#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

10% vs 2200% growth per month? Only the slope of a tabletop to a wall would be more dissimilar (shape wise). It'd say that the graphs are more comparable to the treacherous slopes of OHIO vs the casual slopes of Mt EVEREST. If you didn't notice the logarithmic axis, perhaps this is more your style: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&r=300

[jack102938]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1

Very similar to (shape wise): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=aapl#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

10% vs 2200% growth per month? Only the slope of a tabletop to a wall would be more dissimilar (shape wise). It'd say that the graphs are more comparable to the treacherous slopes of OHIO vs the casual slopes of Mt EVEREST. Perhaps you didn't notice that the graph I presented had a logarithmic axis. Maybe this is more your style: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&r=300

Yeah i realised my post was a bit retarded but couldn't be arsed to change it. I know the axis are completely different. The point was that both lines skyrocketed. Meh.

[peach]

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double.  

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

LESS THAN 50%. that's anywhere from 0.00000001% to 49.99999999%. A wide margin. It's not my fault you suck at reading comprehension.  

Easy now, big guy.

I obviously made a reading-error, but that doesn't nullify the other points I made. You can't hide behind those with your caps lock and ad hominem.