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Title: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Bitcopia on August 21, 2013, 11:19:13 PM According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.
If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn. ~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible. EDIT: This would make one satoshi worth $0.00285. :) Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: balanghai on August 21, 2013, 11:32:54 PM Wow, I think there would be an issue of hoarding by then. Maybe trading would be done in mBtc or uBtc by then.
Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Bitcopia on August 21, 2013, 11:38:50 PM When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn. As stated, it is not my opinion bitcoin is ever going to be worth that much, and certainly not any time in the next decade, but is a 6 trillion dollar market capitalization ridiculous for a global currency? I don't think so. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: ArticMine on August 22, 2013, 04:47:45 AM According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars. If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn. ~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value. No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000, 1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285 Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Bitcopia on August 22, 2013, 05:46:50 AM According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars. If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn. ~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value. No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000, 1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285 Yep, nice correction. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: dnaleor on August 22, 2013, 08:28:24 AM I think 1 BTC = 1000 USD or even 10000 USD is fairly possible, if mass adoption occurs.
but >100000 is just too much :P (unless Bernanke has a drunk night and doubles the monetary base over night) Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Pruden on August 22, 2013, 10:15:21 AM rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations. :)
Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: jamesc760 on August 22, 2013, 02:20:31 PM will never happen.
Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: zoinky on August 22, 2013, 06:05:39 PM When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn. But there's always posts like this. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: AU on August 22, 2013, 07:31:08 PM not until we can cash out coins to personal debit cards... (without middle men)
then lets talk price rise Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: bitcoin carpenter on August 22, 2013, 10:29:43 PM Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow.....
At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Bitcopia on August 22, 2013, 10:36:49 PM Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow..... At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas Yep, we can dream ;). But realistically, a similar scenario is very likely to happen in the coming decades with either bitcoin, another digital currency, or an amalgam of various digital currencies. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: xxjs on August 24, 2013, 07:48:57 PM rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations. :) Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value. Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now. Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: zoinky on August 25, 2013, 10:02:42 PM rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations. :) Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value. Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now. Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down. The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: ruletheworld on August 25, 2013, 10:08:07 PM rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations. :) Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value. Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now. Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down. The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days. True. However, I don't think you can make a Bitcoin wire like you can make a gold wire. Perhaps finally, finally, gold will some REAL use if it's price is down and no one bothers! It has some nice desirable physical properties Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: crumbs on August 25, 2013, 10:17:00 PM ... Historically, new FTFY. Newer, different, but not necessarily better. Most goldbugs/fiat haters here will agree. Quote Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value. Bitcoin may be better than gold, though it may or may not be better than fiat -- which is today's money. Most Keynesians would vote nay. Quote Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now. By that time technology will not mean just quantum computers, but quantum computers using quantum computers for quanta :D Bitcoin will be as useful as dinosaur repellent. Quote Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down. Then why all the hubbub about exchanges & exchange rates? Trade in bitcoins & return to Caesar what's Caesar's :D Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: xxjs on August 25, 2013, 11:52:05 PM There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.
Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 12:14:19 PM There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market. You agree with the rest of my points? Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: Zaih on August 26, 2013, 12:32:17 PM Obviously possible..
No need for hate fella's. Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: xxjs on August 26, 2013, 12:49:47 PM There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market. You agree with the rest of my points? Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub :) Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 01:36:54 PM There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market. You agree with the rest of my points? Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub :) That was goofy. The point i wanted to make is this: It's unlikely that 5000 years ago anyone could have predicted today's tech -- the wheel epitomised the bleeding edge of technology ~3000 BC. There's nothing to suggest Bitcoin, being closely linked to today's tech, will be remembered as a historical footnote in 5k years. And i'm relying only on linear, not exponential growth :) Title: Re: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin Post by: xxjs on August 26, 2013, 02:40:19 PM There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market. You agree with the rest of my points? Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub :) That was goofy. The point i wanted to make is this: It's unlikely that 5000 years ago anyone could have predicted today's tech -- the wheel epitomised the bleeding edge of technology ~3000 BC. There's nothing to suggest Bitcoin, being closely linked to today's tech, will be remembered as a historical footnote in 5k years. And i'm relying only on linear, not exponential growth :) I agree, we can know nothing that far in the future. Currently, the brand of gold as it is engraved in the mythosphere is hard to compete with. |