6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin

[Bitcopia]

According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.

If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn.

~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible.

EDIT: This would make one satoshi worth $0.00285. 

[1714920314]

1714920314

[balanghai]

Wow, I think there would be an issue of hoarding by then. Maybe trading would be done in mBtc or uBtc by then.

[Bitcopia]

When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn.

As stated, it is not my opinion bitcoin is ever going to be worth that much, and certainly not any time in the next decade, but is a 6 trillion dollar market capitalization ridiculous for a global currency? I don't think so.

[ArticMine]

According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.

If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn.

~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value.

No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000,  1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285

[Bitcopia]

According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.

If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn.

~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value.

No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000,  1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285

Yep, nice correction.

[dnaleor]

I think 1 BTC = 1000 USD or even 10000 USD is fairly possible, if mass adoption occurs.
but >100000 is just too much
(unless Bernanke has a drunk night and doubles the monetary base over night)

[Pruden]

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations. 

[jamesc760]

will never happen.

[zoinky]

When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn.

But there's always posts like this.

[AU]

not until we can cash out coins to personal debit cards... (without middle men)

then lets talk price rise

[bitcoin carpenter]

Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow.....
At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas

[Bitcopia]

Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow.....
At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas

Yep, we can dream  . But realistically, a similar scenario is very likely to happen in the coming decades with either bitcoin, another digital currency, or an amalgam of various digital currencies.

[xxjs]

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.  

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

[zoinky]

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.  

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days.

[ruletheworld]

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.  

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days.

True. However, I don't think you can make a Bitcoin wire like you can make a gold wire. Perhaps finally, finally, gold will some REAL use if it's price is down and no one bothers! It has some nice desirable physical properties

[crumbs]

...
Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money.

FTFY.  Newer, different, but not necessarily better.  Most goldbugs/fiat haters here will agree.

Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Bitcoin may be better than gold, though it may or may not be better than fiat -- which is today's money.  Most Keynesians would vote nay.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

By that time technology will not mean just quantum computers, but quantum computers using quantum computers for quanta  Bitcoin will be as useful as dinosaur repellent.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

Then why all the hubbub about exchanges & exchange rates?  Trade in bitcoins & return to Caesar what's Caesar's

[xxjs]

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

[crumbs]

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

[Zaih]

Obviously possible..

No need for hate fella's.

[xxjs]

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub