Bitcoin Forum

CoinTerra is pleased to announce a new 1 TH/s bitcoin mining product available in the January batch - TerraMiner II available for $3499.  

Also available is the TerraMiner IV retailing for $5999 in the January batch - the first mining equipment available anywhere to break the $3 per Gigahash barrier!

Both products feature CoinTerra's 500 GH/s GoldStrike1 chip, which is already the fastest chip announced in the Bitcoin market. Physical Design results for GoldStrike1 show that some of these chips can perform as high as 700 GH/s. At the time of delivery customers may be offered an option to upgrade their TerraMiner for a small charge, further lowering the cost per Gigahash.

http://cointerra.com/shop/

We have also announced some additional GoldStrike1 chip specs :-

Global Foundries 28nm HPP
FCBGA Package
1.4GHz clock frequency yielding a minimum of 500 GH/s
0.765V
State-of-the-art Liquid Cooling System

360A of current. At least 8 phase DC/DC converter. 900+ balls BGA.
Simply put: MONSTER!

You need a credit card option.  People are tired of having all their money wrapped up in pre-orders with no recourse.

+1

Won't get fucked a second time.

Who fucked u?

http://www.btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=86933017.771194&dcosts=3500&diff_mincrease=30&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=1000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.1&btcusd=127.38&dpowcon=560&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.15&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=12&action=calc#

:)

it is risky

WTF...the price is less than half the December batch?  You guys had better ship all those December orders on December 1st or there are going to be some seriously pissed off people. 

What makes you think the January batch will ship on 1 Jan?

Dec = Dec 31st.
Jan = Jan 31st.

I guess that cointerra's december batch alone can make those january orders unprofitable :D

Now with the reduced price, yet still no paypal option?

Also where is the https service and SSL Ca authenticated ownership and identity verification for the website?
Since Bitpay is the btc processor have they taken steps to authenticate your team's identity and claims?

Just some questions I wish to have resolved prior to making any type of investment towards funding via pre-order a future ASIC product.

Edit: I think Joeri, your web developer should see about the SSL CA asap.

That's even worse since by Dec 31st it'll be that much harder for the December batch to make up the $8000 difference.

I wonder if they're going to let people switch between the machines

What makes you think they care about their customers returning investment on their product? They have no ROI insurance, just shipping time insurance. I guess they failed to mention the part where they flood the market with hardware the next month, screw over the first batch buyers, and then offer to sell them a new cheap system so they can keep up with the hashing power. Yay for another greedy asic vendor!

Well they mailed first batch customers a coupon for 10% off the 2nd batch orders, except the damned coupon doesn't work at all!!!!

Cointerra, please fix this mess!!!

Hi TesterX,

We've received several orders already from customers using the coupon code, so it is functional.

Please note that the code only works if you use the email address with which you placed your original order, and that it only can be used once on single 2nd batch orders.

Don't hesitate to contact us at support (at) cointerra.com if the issue persists.

It's working now, I was logged in correctly with my original e-mail address but it didn't work initially but basically started working after about 10 minutes.  Seems like it took a while for the cart to recognize the code.

How much power does this new miner use?

Really excite about this, actually, but I'm on the edge about ordering due to the lack of a credit card option.

It's nice that cointerra feels that 1TH/s will return $4000 a month in December.

That means I should do really well with the KNC, BitFury, and HashFast miners that are supposed to arrive in October.


Add paypal or a credit card option cointerra and you have a new customer. Otherwise... I just don't feel like I can risk my BTC.

Actually this is what I really want to know to. There doesn't seem to be power estimations for any of their miners.

Why doesn't CoinTerra adopt a fractional pre-order system?

If you purchased a TerraMiner 4 (2TH/s) when it was first released then the buyer purchased it at 16k USD.

If the purchase price of the same Miner a little later goes for 6k USD then their order system should allow a buyer to claim 2 systems and reserve 66%  of a third miner. Dispatching an automated email if the buyer would like to pay the remaining balance to acquire a third system plus any extra payments for shipping a second and third unit.

First unit should be shipped on schedule and the second unit should be shipped in the next batch after that.

=====================

I don't see what is the point of giving a coupon that will discount the next unit if the price doesn't quite equalize the entire purchase price.

16k <--- first batch
6k second batch.

Total of 22k which should equal almost 4 units.

Instead in the current system, the buyer purchased the first unit for too much and only gets 10% off for the second unit.

Same for me. Would love to order one but am not doing pre-orders in BTC going forward.

Their phone number posted on their site does not work either.

1 (512) 270-6050

And no reply to my question about SSL?

Please consider our perspective in this. We realize you have no product at this time. However what you are asking for is an incredible amount of faith on the customers part.

Less us not forget ASX-project with their claims?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189846.msg2205949#msg2205949

and this?



and now asxproject.com no work anymore.

Please understand that we do not wish to spread FUD. But do not continue on ignoring this equation.

They sound quite desperate with 2 new price cuts in a span of maybe 1 month. I wonder how much they will pay us for batch 3 delivering in feb ?

Starting to sound too good to be true. "700GH/sec"

Maybe they are the same scammers as
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285533.msg3126281#msg3126281

Also their email address is down

punch their addy into google and look at street view

11130 Jollyville Rd
Austin, TX 78759

dental office, mortgage firm and a chiropractor no cointerra.

According to others bad phone number, faulty email, no paypal or CC....... smells like a scam  :-\

To be fair on that one, you'd have to see the date of the street view. Cointerra is a fairly new company.

Someone from the community please go down and verify this address.

Considering the amount of time and energy put into this. I would be very surprised if this turns out to be a scam.

However something just does not seem on the level here.

It's the shopped chipzilla pics. That's a bulk can of worms to open. A legit company would be very unlikely to go down that road.

I also agree, hopefully they are working towards it.

I agree that something seems weird, particularly all the stolen images, quick price drops, and lack of refundable payment methods.

I imagine there has to be someone on this board in Austin, TX with a camera and a few hours to go and visit with the Cointerra people.

What about just emailing Dr. Naveed Sherwani and a couple other board members? Although it could be easy to dupe one or two legit guys into "advisory" positions for a BS company.

Edit:

The youtube video posted right at their front page combined with their linkedin etc profiles makes it seem quite legit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K199f61n4qM

Slap the name of Intel, nVidia, and Samsung on your product along with the picture of a smart looking Indian with glasses.  Instant money pouring in, right?

What if it is just a group with a large mining farm wanting to protect the network for themselves by holding other peoples money...preventing them from going with someone else for a while longer...

Anyone game to call the dental group and ask a few questions concerning their neighbors?


Omni Dental Group
11130 Jollyville Road #1500, Austin, TX 78759 map
(512) 346-8424

Hello, eve ?

Is everyone afraid to dial a phone number?

Or at least ask if there's a blue light in the window. If there is, then I have a clue as to who he may be, especially if there's a sign on the door that reads, "Hello, fellow Bitcoiners!"

Mr. PG,

When will you disclose the details of your visit at BFL?

shit, ill call them

The fact that they would let these scam accusations go unanswered is a red flag as well. If I was doing a press release for a large product line and new run of chips, which severely undercut my previous run's buyers, I'd have someone monitoring this thread.

Ravi, Timo, and Dr. Sherwani seem pretty legit to me...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K199f61n4qM&feature=player_embedded (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K199f61n4qM&feature=player_embedded)

They are probably too busy taking orders.

I seen that video last week.

I contacted Bitpay to see what they have to say as to 3rd party validation and the lack of HTTPS for the online ordering.

Honestly I am sick of people getting scammed and having to reassure them that bitcoin is not full of scammers.

I didn't see anything about their chips. Just a bunch of marketing speak about how they are changing the future of finance. Like most Cointerra stuff I've read, its a whole lot of talk with very little, if any, substance.

If they are successful or not is not what concerns me. I truly hope that this does become a reality.

However apart from that video, everything else just seems a little off. Call me paranoid.

I will wait to place any orders as we have other options.

Lessons from the world of bitcoin:

1. Don't invest with anyone who is anonymous, especially if their name contains "pirate"

2. Don't pay for pre-orders with bitcoin. Use a credit card or trusted escrow.

Even if Cointerra is 100% legit and has the best of intentions, they may not be able deliver in time, or ever. These kinds of purchases are what chargebacks are made for.

upvotes

I'm not too shocked. I've said in other threads that I've thought things would get down to $1/GH. Who knows, maybe even lower? If you look at the hardware, it's probably significantly less complicated than a PC with graphic cards, Intel CPU, network card... etc... Granted, these are custom asics, but prices can go lower just like Intel CPU's can go lower.

This might make it easier for more people to get involved in mining, which could cause bitcoins to go much higher as they are distributed into more hands but in inversely smaller quantities. i.e. a broad interest w/ a low integer'd supply.

Could you please elaborate more how would that work?
Is this applicable for batch 1 and batch 2?
What kind of upgrade would it be, and how small would be the charge?

At least this will prevent BFL from scamming anyone - these are about half the $/Gh/s.

That said, I wouldn't order these - I think people who get KnC's in September or October will probably make more profit then ordering these.  And prices are going to continue to drop.

those guys are just grasping for straws right now, offloading as much risk as possible to the suc..err buyers, given the difficulty gap.

ladies & gents we are now finally in the endgame, expect to see many asic hardware manufacturer to start losing money by next year and fold shop.  unless you have a very thoroughly understanding of what is going on and what is happening in the next few months, your best bet is just to buy bitcoins directly instead of asic hardware if want to be in the game.  Personally i am just holding cash and waiting.

You know the saying... where there's smoke, there's fire...

I don't actually see any fire yet, but smoke is never good.  Unless it's in a smoker with some applewood.

By fold up shop you mean mine like hell, right? :-)

+1!
I have ordered 5x2TH/s for $70.000
And now I get get 10x2TH/s for the same, but I must
need to wait one month more?

Thats really not fair! I will try to upgrade my order to 10x2TH/s

For that to break even with "free" electricity and no shipping you would need to mine 550 BTC

With shipping and electricity, you would have needed to mine approx 625btc ...

Nice now i feel myself scammed with this late announcement. The odd is almost near 0 to have 2.5x hashes in 1 month. And incase you dont deliver in december, we will get extra loss on rather take batch 2 than the protection scheme

I'm pretty sure the CoinTerra team is legit, though I have no idea what asxproject.com is or was and stuff related to that.

Why? I assume: "If Dr. Naveed Sherwan is legit and involved in CT, CoinTerra is legit also".

1. He is a team member and there is reference to Open Silicon:
http://cointerra.com/team/

2. Open Silicon is huge:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-Silicon

3. He is CEO of OS:
http://www.open-silicon.com/management/

4. The "proof" that Mr. Sherwan is indeed involved in CT:
http://www.youtube.com/K199f61n4qM?t=2m27s Edit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K199f61n4qM&&t=2m27s

(link in 4. doesn't work).

You didn't actually prove anything. If a scammer wanted to scam us, they could just create website called: http://scamware.com/team/ and put there a reference to Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Dr Sherwani.
If you try to prove that CT is legit, you can't use CT website as a source.

If you want actualy proof that Dr Sherwani is really affiliated with CT, then it is here:
http://imageshack.us/a/img197/1400/wnsp.jpg
(assuming you trust me that I didn't PhotoShop that ;D)

How can you spend $70K on something you dont even seem to grasp the basics off?
Here is a hint:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

Now put in 8PH/s (10+ PH if you actually believe CT will ship in december) in your calculator and see what happens.
Hint: not much good, and it will only get worse. If you think current ~80%+ network growth per month is terrifying, you havent seen anything yet.

youre an idiot

Thank you for that.

Now it would be great if someone would go visit their offices in

11130 JOLLYVILLE RD
AUSTIN, TX 78759

Several generations... ouch!

Corrected. It's http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K199f61n4qM&&t=2m27s.

Sure a scammer could do this and I'm well aware that the CT website can't be used for verification, though I think the video produced by could be considered as semi-hard-proof of Dr. Sherwani's involvement.

+1.
Just because they should fire the guy in charge or art design for their website doesn't necessarily make them a scam.  ::)

These guys are swimming in some money already, from high profile management positions in the silicon industry, they wouldn't just sit around, get together, and make up some fictitious company with video proof that they are involved just for some LOLs.

+1 on the "highly questionable" vote.

Giles (evilscoop) and I watch the new ASIC companies with great care so we can appropriately invest CipherMine's funds, but even then we're not immune to being caught out (eg. Avalon's ASICs, though we're hopefully getting a refund). We are getting a lot better at spotting the dodgy ones though!

Both of us are highly skeptical of CoinTerra. By contrast, we have had good dealings with both HashFast and BitFury. I have spoken to several people at the former and the CEO is a friend of a friend, and I've spoken to Punin himself from BitFuryStrikesBack and Giles has taken delivery of one of their units. Both are organisations are responsive to inquiries (albeit after a delay in BitFuryStrikesBack's case); that is the hallmark of a genuine operation.

I fear for KNC as well, I must admit... but we shall see.

Kate.

I can vouch for pretty much all of those companies having spent significant time either in person or on the phone with the executives of KnC, Hashfast & Cointerra, (and have also met BitFury's Valery).  All four of those are legitimate companies and i am confident that none of them are scams!   I agree its safer to be wary of new asic companies and there are plenty of scams out there, but i seriously think you guys are barking up the wrong tree with KnC, Hashfast & Cointerra if you think they are scams.   In all three of these cases, the executives have publicly disclosed who they are, they attend events and conferences in person, they talk to anyone who wants to call them on the phone, and they are legitimate businesses with executives who have excellent track records and with a highly verifiable past employment history.  I have also dealt with all of those companies and purchased from them (and no, i havnt received anything from any of them yet, but KnC is due this month, Hashfast next month and Cointerra the month after)

Since you seem to be based in the uk (and so am i) why dont we compare notes and discuss the relative risk of dealing with the various bitcoin mining companies.

-- Jez

I mean the r&d, manufacturing, and shipping cost basis of those hardware will no longer support a profit with the difficulty increase and instead cost more than income.  Look at the asic blades, their cost basis is probably 1-2 btc, it was selling for 50 btc, now it's around 4 btc.  In a few months this will no longer be profitable to manufacture.

Now look at a new manufacturer such as cointerra who has not made any profit yet from the first few asic waves like am already done, they are just hitting the market at those stressed prices to begin with and the situation will only get worse, for them it's not only the hardware cost but also the r&d cost. Yes the chips will be cheaper to make as they pack more gh, but the endgame is still bleak with THs of difficulty all coming online from various late comers trying to make the final wave.

Bitfury barely made it in to squeeze out a good profit, anything new coming out dec+ will have a very difficult time unless btc/usd increases drastically which looks doubtful.

The writing is on the walls.

EDIT: for anyone confused i am talking about asic manufacturers only in above post, for small retail miners the game is already up.

I think the guys at CoinTerra just think they're the shit and so much better at chip design that they can be way late and it won't matter because they're just so awesome. I think their new prices are waking up to the reality of how overpriced they actually were. I think people are actually coming to their senses and realizing they need to see where the difficulty is going to be before buying new hardware.

If you compare their industry experience with that of BFL management team, they *are* the shit.
Whether that translates to a timely launch and within spec, remains to be seen, but they have infinitely better chances than BFL.


So overpriced they sold out. Dont blame them for the stupidity of miners.

Well duh, that's true of pretty much any random person off the street. Not much of an accomplishment ;D

Anyway I agree I think they're pretty good.  If I was in the market for a miner I'd go with them over HashFast. But the network is going to be pretty insane by January.

Curious... why would you go with them over hashfast?  Ubiquify seem to be pretty on the ball.  Hashfast will most likely be Hash-Deliver-Late, but I believe they will be delivering before Cointerra. HDL also has the MPP for the inevitability of anticipated difficulty growth and late delivery baked in.

While it appears a nice gesture (/marketing gimmick), it doesnt really account for much.
t kicks in after 90 days, with no promise of when it will ship. By the time you get it, it may be like getting an extra FPGA from BFL today, or rather in 3 months.
Worst of all, you get the chip, not the miner. How much they charge for the miner is completely up to them, so your free chips may be worth nothing. So its more like getting an FPGA chip from BFL. Wouldnt that make you happy?

THat said, I have no reason to be more confident in Cointerra or  hashfast's ability to deliver. On paper both have the right experience.

http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-and-hashfast-sell-17m-of-bitcoin-miners-open-second-batch-sales/

Interestingly I immediately got an email from someone at Cointerra expressing disappointment at my skepticism (they'd obviously like me as a customer).

Apparently they don't engage with the forums because they are too full of trolls. I did point out that it seems odd that a company in the bitcoin space would not wish to engage their their customer community.

I've asked if I can publish the exchange anyway.

Kate.

In my case:

1) HashFast have provided factory tours to members of this forum.
2) The CEO is a friend of a friend, and thought of highly in the Bay area community.
3) HashFast have been extremely helpful in all correspondence and have thorough and detailed terms of sale; they are what I would consider to be a proper, upstanding business.
4) They have now taped out.
5) They provided limited pre-orders (like BitFury) which encourages one to believe that they have pitched it at a level they can actually deliver.

As for the MPP, I don't think it is a gimmick, but rather an insurance sale. The chips cost almost nothing and once they have the process down the chassis will also be relatively cheap. I believe the MPP will

A big part of it is also instinct. I will be watching these guys carefully (as well as VMC and KNC) in coming weeks and months, and by next year we'll all know which horse should have been backed. ;)

Kate.

You're a wise one Kate. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

i'm pretty sure forum members (educated buyers) are not their target audience

While several forum members are educated buyers, there are certainly a lot of trolls and bullies on this forum.  the signal to noise ratio is very low. 

the criticism's and questions i've seen, regarding cointerra, have been perfectly reasonable, justified and some would be hard to defend.  i don't blame them for being scared to address them here but they should, particularly in threads they start themselves.

i give them credit for actually fixing, or at least attempting to fix some of the concerns raised here, even if they don't address them on the forum.  you can see they are sort of trying, which is more than some other vendors.  

lowering their prices by 38% since the time of launch is a step in the right direction and an acknowledgement that they were massively overpriced at launch, but december orders still are and they really need to do something to help out people like this poor fellow:


what cointerra did was similar to avalon's waiting to announce bulk chip sales until a few days after an overpriced batch 3 sale completed.  pretty harsh treatment for the first customers willing to take a chance on you, imho

What are you babbling about? Hashrate is already growing by ~100% per month now (*), and in december and january, it will probably grow a lot faster than that if only a fraction of those 28nm asic providers manage to ship what they promise;  that means hardware prices per GH will drop by 50% or more per month.  Thats completely logical and to be expected. February delivery batches will cost ~$1.5/GH if there will be any and march delivery will be sold for <$1/GH.

Here is another newsflash: none of those are very likely to yield a positive ROI, but at least  if they live up to their shipping promises,  the losses will be fairly consistent throughout the various batches.


(*)
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth-10k.png

2.5% growth per day, compounded gives >100% per month. Note the rate of growth is accelerating, and thats well before anyone has shipped a single 28nm chip. THings will get very, very ugly, if you are shocked by the prospect that mining profitability and therefore prices will drop by 50% or more per month; you shouldnt be in the mining business.

If they are going to announce products and have an active account on this forum, then they should support those threads. Trolls should be quite easy to ignore and prove false with simple statements. The most blatant trolls could just be left alone. It is really bad form to start these threads and disappear, it gives the trolls a lot more ammunition to work with.

They still have yet to answer any of the criticisms leveled against them from what I have seen. It is true that they lowered prices, but I am not sure they are profitable at even that low. The market is going to explode over the next few months, and cointerra themselves have promised to raised the difficulty quite a bit with their release. A 30% per a difficulty jump rise might look small if KNC really can ship 2PH/s themselves, with cointerra promising that in their first order. It's possible we will see a few jumps that look full vertical.

I am also starting to think their primary target audience is the less educated miner as well. The whole point of the video they released was to explain what bitcoin mining is and how their machines are the best, with little to no real technical knowledge shown. This makes me think that their target audience is new players to the bitcoin scene. If this is the case, it is quite possible they know their machines are overpriced and it is intentional as new people will not run calculations well. The fact that they are only taking non-refundable payments at this time supports this. I am very worried they will be another shady vendor pricing asics at the almost unprofitable price point and laughing all the way to the bank. Greed is a powerful force and so far few, if any, asic vendors seem resistant to it.

yes, i know how difficulty works


i guess that is one opinion, just not mine

Its not just an opion, its math:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

If we assume most of these asic vendors will indeed ship their 28nm according to their promises, 8PH will be added to the network before the end of this year, and another 7+PH is the months thereafter, If you dont believe they will, then neither will your presumed profitable asics ship, so it doesnt really change a thing, just delays everything. That 8PH is a very conservative tally that doesnt include a lot of potentially big players like ActiveMining or next gen chips from either Avalon or AsicMiner and isnt updated for Cointerra's second batch nor 2 new asics announced today.  10PH in december (+whatever delay you expect) and another 10PH in the month after is more realistic IMO.

An added 10PH means a difficulty of ~1.5 billion and doubling that, well, you guessed it, ~3 billion a month later. At those difficulties and current BTC exchange rate, your $14000 2TH miner will generate $2,660 in the first month and  $1,330 in the next. Good luck with that ROI.

This is a prediction made on 6/14/2013 of where the income from a 70gh/s Avalon should be in the future. The drift can be seen as green shows what block of time should occupy that income. The green which highlights the current date.

http://s24.postimg.org/wt05nsiv9/Asics_are_way_overpriced_1_Highlighted.png

Hopefully, the next difficulty correction puts my prediction back on track in the next 24 hours. 3 Months later and it is pretty much spot on though, which is a bad thing.

Any word if the CoinTerra chips specs have been nailed down? I would like to make a similar prediction for their miner as well.

Damn, it only dropped to .3 BTC per day per 70GH/s. Well, at least that puts me at only 3 days off the previous prediction.

Anyone know the specs on a CoinTerra? Would love to do some charts...

Each chip is slated at 500Gh, and 0.6 W/Gh - so 2Th unit is 4 chips and power of 1.2Kw.  I will try and find sources for this, and update this post.

Will

Exactly. People seem to forget how insanely large profit margins for these chips are, they are conservatively estimated in 2.000% range right now. Manufacturers can easily afford to cut the prices 50% for each consecutive month through good part of 2014. Expect to pay few hundreds US$ for a TH/s machine in first half of 2014.

Apart from the specs theyve already released, what additional specs are you asking for?

the specs theyve released so far are listed within the product description of each product on their web site and also posted in their other forum posts...
http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-miner-january-batch/ (http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-miner-january-batch/)
http://cointerra.com/cointerra-announces-highest-performance-2-terahash-per-second-bitcoin-asic-mining-rig/ (http://cointerra.com/cointerra-announces-highest-performance-2-terahash-per-second-bitcoin-asic-mining-rig/)

to summarise what they said, its a 500 GH chip, at <0.6w/gh/s (the release above said 0.5 w/gh)

Its made by Global Foundries in their 28nm HPP process, a voltage of 0.765v.

They also said (in this release) that some of their chips run faster at 700 GH and that they might decide to charge users extra to get the faster chips.

http://cointerra.com/cointerra-introduces-two-low-cost-bitcoin-asic-mining-solutions/ (http://cointerra.com/cointerra-introduces-two-low-cost-bitcoin-asic-mining-solutions/)

Edit: Corrected mistakes..couldn't find the official price for the 500Gh/s unit.

Cointerra TerraMiner 2 (Prediction for 1 year into the future):
Note: I included a price chart as to how much the Miner should cost as you lose profitability.

http://s11.postimg.org/rwwm7ncw3/Terra_Miner_2_1_TH.png

Cointerra TerraMiner 4 (Prediction for 1 year into the future):
Note: I included a price chart as to how much the Miner should cost as you lose profitability.

http://s9.postimg.org/hcigp57fz/Terra_Miner_4_2_TH.png

If the network increases at 20% then by the time they release their hardware. Expect to make this much a day if its only 20% increase per 12 days.

https://i.imgur.com/INFtCVI.png

See for yourself copy the document and give it a go.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

Just like Avalon delivered all their chip orders right? Klondikes running everywhere I suppose

BFL up to recent order delivery too right?  That Monarch all set to ship on time

blah blah..  you sound like you just don't want anyone else to mine but you...  pretty transparent

 8)  COINTERRA ROCKS

I will buy 2nd batch...I want have got ASIC 4th generation at home and watching them...

You dont understand it, do you ? Either these companies do deliver and you will be screwed because of the incredible and unprecedented increase in difficulty
Or these companies will not deliver and you will be screwed because you dont get any hardware in a timely fashion.
In that sense, yes, exactly like BFL or Avalon.

The only way you can reasonably expect a decent profit is if your order does get shipped and most of the others dont. That may have worked for a few Avalon customers, even some BFL customers, it may work for some KNC or whichever 28nm chip ships first, but statistically, thats a stupid bet. LIke I said, satoshidice gives you better odds.

As for me wanting others not to mine; IM long out of the mining game, but even if I werent, all these products are sold out, not much point trying to convince people now, much too late.

QFT - the only real way to make profit mining is to spread your bets with all the companies, but always be in the first day orders.  One of them will pay off (e.g. gigavps buying 3 minirigs from BFL on day 1) and that pays for all the other companies that don't.

Will

The one winning horse you will have backed will be offset by all the losing ones.
Fact is the sum of all preorders and upcoming orders (far) exceeds the mining profit thats to be had. Buying equally from all suppliers just guarantees you get an average result, which is negative.

The only way for your strategy to work is if most companies do send out early orders in a mostly timely fashion, but subsequently struggle to produce and ship their long order queues, like BFL has been struggling for years now.
Its possible, but I wouldnt bet on most/all of them being equally inept managing a supply chain.

I think if you had placed first day orders with all the companies offering ASICS, you would have made positive money, even with the few that either ran away with money or have been very late to deliver

Will

I'm going to have to disagree on several points.

First, the cost to manufacture chips is pretty miniscule. The initial cost is development, and making the mask. Once that's done, it's pretty much just the cost of the silicon and the manufacturing run. Once the NRE is out of the way, they can lower their prices substantially. If they are smart, they will do it incrementally in response to market conditions, thus making enough profit to repeat the cycle on a higher order chip next time round without having to do the pre order thing. Face it, AMD, Intel, and their ilk are NOT selling 'obsolete' chips at a loss. They have recovered their R&D costs and have continued to manufacture the chip on it's actual cost basis, then market it for what they can get. I doubt they ever get below 100 percent markup over all costs before discontinuing a line.

As for the game being up for the small operator?

I think not. I think the game for the small operator RIGHT NOW is wait and see. You are looking at an arms race for who can deliver better, faster, and cheaper $/BTC/<insert fiat>  per GH/s or even TH/s. Sit and wait a few months and you'll see all sorts of first gen hardware in the secondary market for satoshis on the BTC initial price. Just like in the PC world, today's Badass is tomorrow's dumpster treasure. If you can get it damn near free, it WLL give you a positive ROI fairly quickly unless the cost of electricity skyrockets. Every gamer, whether in business, life, or chess, has to be able to adapt to changes in the game. This one has so many variables that I think there are still many MANY winning strategies for the little guy. You just have to fake patience.

There is no reason to assume that. On the contrary, I dont see why anyone would sell a used/old/ready to ship mining chip or device at a price that would guarantee a quick ROI, be it now or next year.
In the dumpster you can find GPU's and early FPGA's now, and you may be able to buy them "cheaply", but show me one that I can buy that will ROI in less than a few months. You wont find any. You cant find any thats likely to give a positive ROI at all. Nor will you next year, or the year after.

Also, 28nm asics is more or less the end game for bitcoin mining. We may (but probably wont) see another shrink to 20 or 14nm several years from now, but the sort of quantum leap we are seeing now will never happen again (barring a breakthrough in technology like quantum computers). Because of the dynamics you explained yourself, the prices for these chips will tumble and follow difficulty (with difficulty following chip prices, creating a feedback loop which is why we see exponential growth) until variable production cost meets mining profitability. At that point, which I guestimated in the neighborhood of 1 exahash,  the market will be saturated, production will mostly halt, future difficulty will be predictable and stable (well, influenced only by BTC exchange rate and transaction fees)  and if you agree miners are overbuying, then here is no money to be made by anyone. You will only see miners mining with cheap/free electricity that are operationally profitable, but with a breakeven point on their investment thats beyond their life expectancy.

stop mining start gambling!  8)

Whats the difference?
Oh right, with gambling at least you have a decent chance of making a profit :)

I like Cointerra so far. But why not just call it an even $3/GH, instead of breaking the barrier - sounds so definitive. If talking fiat, $2.9995/GH retail is still $3.00/GH (for all practical purposes). You still have to pay for shipping anyway. Just saying. 8)

Wait until Cointerra announces less than $2/GH... or $1/GH. Eventually, it's going to have to arrive. Retailers are subject to difficulty as well, since it dampens demand for hardware with less ROI potential.

I was going to order from CoinTerra as well. But if they don't accept Paypal or Credit Card. I am not going to order, since after all these speculation in this thread, they never actually got the gut to replied to strengthen our confidence in them.

Can someone on this forum please go and check out if they really exist. Pleaseeeeeeeee   ???

Yes Sir, we exist! Our main holding is in Nigeria.  8)

Cointerra are in Austin, TX and they showed up at the most recent bitcoin meet up there, you can find a few brief writeups on reddit.

Will

Even if they exist, I am not going to pay them any other way. Other than Paypal or Credit Card.

So the thing that's not being considered here is the capital expenditure on semiconductor processing equipment.

Sure, mask sets are expensive. But there is a significant opportunity cost associated with using that 5-million dollar etch cluster tool or that 4-million dollar dep tool, to keep cranking out crappy old chips instead of the new ones. Waving off marginal costs for semiconductor production is foolish for anything except very low volume runs, in which case mask costs dominate.

Foundries would rather use that equipment for modern process nodes (if possible). Saying "it's just the cost of the silicon and the manufacturing run" ignores just how much that manufacturing run costs. Basically, masks require the customer to buy into the cost of the equipment - which is enough to make small runs unprofitable, but it isn't going to make big runs cheap.

I agree about what is going to happen to the second-hand market though. There is serious potential for the little guy to pick up discarded, power-inefficient hardware, take it someplace with nearly-free electricity (Siberia, Washington State) and set up shop.

Yeah, I didn't mean to say those costs are trivial, though it did kind of come out that way. I'm just saying that the cost to manufacture once the NRE is covered is orders of magnitude smaller. Plus there are frequently spaces available on other runs, etc. that are offered up to make more profit per run for the foundry. There are numerous avenues for cost cutting without re-engineering the whole damn thing.

Also, from what I understand (I freely confess to being an interested amateur) the newest processes that are going into production on the photolithography side of things are going to be significantly cheaper than the dominant process right now. While I do not see Bitcoin ASIC machines going to 14nm or even 22nm in the immediate future, I do see it as a distinct probability in the mid term predicated really on just one thing. That thing is multifaceted, but still, just one thing. Widespread adoption of bitcoin. Mining speculation alone has not driven the price up from nothing to hovering around 120 USD over the short life of this experiment. Enough people have perceived it to be a less risky store of value than national fiat currencies at this point to give it a good push. It's artificial limits are such that such adoption is likely, unless something happens to totally screw the pooch. In the not so long term the huge amount of hashing power that's about to come online is good for bitcoin, and ultimately is LIKELY to be good for the miners as the coins they mine will rise in value as adoption becomes more widespread.

This is in fact where I vary with most of the "we'll never break even" crowd. Never is an awful long time. The machines are not likely to cease to function within the period that the desperate pleas for positive ROI are indicating. A 20 percent per annum ROI is likely even given the worst case generated by the most pessimistic calculations. That's the kind of return that makes real world investors drool, so I'm frankly both amused and irritated by the people who whine about not breaking even in a couple of weeks.

My background is in restaurant management, and if you break even in a decade on a restaurant, you're doing great. But breakeven isn't the only concern. Are you meeting your overhead and making a living? These are more important considerations than 100 percent capitalization ever will be. Sure, it's great to owe nothing and be fully in the black, but is it realistic business?

The answer to that is generally no. Very few companies at any level run without debt or amortization of equipment over time.

As to the secondary market, I see we agree, and I stand by it. Those who "must" have bleeding edge equipment discard the older stuff nearly immediately. I have observed and profited from this particular truth for the better part of three decades. I don't see it changing any time soon.

Peter (Cointerra)
Sep 12 16:28 (CDT)

Hi XYZ. For pre-sale period we're offering BitPay and Wire transfer only. Our concern is charge-backs, not dollar limit.

Have an Awesome Day!

CoinTerra support

-----
XYZ
Sep 12 16:11 (CDT)

Will you now accept Paypal, or credit card payments as your miners are now under $10,000 ?

Thanks

Well I'm rushing to spend money with them now!

A horizon of 5 years or more means you have to worry about electricity costs, and there is danger on two sides.

The first threat is that the chips being made now pay little attention to electricity efficiency, so even if future generations aren't much faster, they may be so much more efficient that they will make the current generations unprofitable to keep running.

The second threat is that mining will centralize in locales where electricity is virtually free. You may think your $0.10/kW-h electricity is great, but the folks in Siberia and Central Washington get it for $0.01/kW-h. That alone is more differentiation than you would get out of a first gen vs second gen chip.

A guaranteed 20% return would be excellent. This is anything but guaranteed.

True. Again, I never meant to imply it was guaranteed. Guaranteed returns are usually either really long term or less than 5 percent per annum in other fields. At any rate, I live close enough to central washington to obviate the problem if needed, and I don't know how long it would be good for. But two to three months seems awfully shortsited to me. (that wasn't really aimed at you, just seems to be a widely held time frame around here)

I'm off to bed right now, but thanks for an intelligent interchange!

I guess I'm in for a penny, in for a pound...just finalized payment on another unit I'm splitting with a few people IRL.  Hope I didn't make the wrong choice by spending all my money on this.

They better deliver on time or I'm gonna be up shit creek

I hope you factored in hosting/electricity in your calculations
http://bitcoinasichosting.com/pricing/

Well, not everyone pays the same thing for electricity but I have access to cheap power.  Those prices are particularly exorbitant btw, by my math a TerraMiner IV would only cost $173 a month even at full electricity prices where I live and I'm probably going to be paying less than that.

To be honest I'm more concerned with how I'm going to power all my mining units at this point since this is going to strain the electrical systems.  Luckily these are coming in the wintertime too, so I'll have some time to work out the cooling system before summer comes. 

The above pricing would include cooling, insurance, Internet access and support.

Remember to add AC wattage if it is applicable.  How much depends on efficiency of cooling system but generally 50% to 100% more (1.5 to 2.0 PUE) would be common.

As for straining the electrical system I would recommend installing dedicated outlets.  In the US you want NEMA L6-30R connected to a dedicated 30A breaker.  Thats a 30A 240V outlet which uses a locking connector.  You can then buy a cheap used PDU (power strip for server rack) with 12 outlets and have the ability to power up to 5760W (240 * 30 * 80%) worth of mining gear safely and securely.

Tl;dr because I'm anyways not sure if this is a good moment for buying mining hardware. However this Timo Hanke guy checks out http://www.math.rwth-aachen.de/~Timo.Hanke/ as a German University professor specialized in cryptography and discrete mathematics.

 I can understand the fear of charge-backs if you were trading bitcoins, but not with physical products.  Companies like this would actually be promoting trust instead of asking the customers to pay up front for something risky with no recourse for refund if the company just "disappears".

The bitcoin community has already shown it can't be trusted to use reversible payment methods, in general.  Sure, most of the people here are on the level, but when you have a non-reversible method available, the risk doesn't seem worth it.  It only takes a little forethought to get set up to purchase bitcoin, and when you're talking about a large investment like high power mining equipment that wont ships for week, those few days are probably prudent.  

Sorry, just tired of people using the 'no recourse' reason to rationalize paypal and credit cards, when OEMs also have no recourse if the buyer screws them with paypal or credit card chargebacks.  If it's not worth the risk to you, then it's not worth the risk.  Seems simple enough.

Excited to see these products ship.  The recent facility visit was very encouraging.

Shipping a physical objoect should be credit card.

No charge backs tells me the company cant full fill it's promise, or may be late and will be worried investors will pull out.

With BTC payment's they own your ass and can dick you around all they want, your not going anywhere.

For 6 grand on hardware, I'd like to see a credit card option. At least than when you fail to ship I can charge back. And IF you ship and I try to charge back you have a tracking number you can provide.

Also. Offering only UPS to Canada sinks it for me. Those rat bastards at UPS will nail us with at LEAST a grand in brokerage and other BS fee's.

Please ship USPS ;)

With chargeback, you can dick around with their entire business model, and they have no recourse.  No chargeback just tells me that they've already been screwed, and they're not willing to risk it again.  They know they'll lose customers, but that loss is less costly than the potential for credit card fraud.  That's how I read it, anyway.

You want to ship 6k in complex electronics using USPS?  Now I am questioning your sanity.  Chances are, it'll never arrive: returned to sender without notification, or be delivered to the wrong location.  O.o